Player Discussion Matthew Tkachuk - "That Face You Just Want to Punch"

[Calculon]

Tkachuk doesn't have the offensive production to justify getting more than Gaudreau on a six year deal. Gaudreau managed 64 and 78 points in his first two seasons; Tkachuk has yet to even break 50.

Frankly, Gaudreau is the most underrated Flame given how they're still folks who think the team would be better off without him.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Chucky is not a better forward than Gaudreau. Come on.

Depends on the situation to be honest, as Tkachuk may be a more complete player. But 10/10 times I want Gaudreau on the ice when I need a goal. Fortunately, we have both.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Tkachuk doesn't have the offensive production to justify getting more than Gaudreau on a six year deal. Gaudreau managed 64 and 78 points in his first two seasons; Tkachuk has yet to even break 50.

Frankly, Gaudreau is the most underrated Flame given how they're still folks who think the team would be better off without him.

Calc, I rarely disagree with your opinions. And if you're just subtracting Gaudreau off the team without replacing him with anyone, it is blindly obvious that we are worse off. However no one is suggesting that.

Gaudreau is our most skilled and creative player. Anyone who doesn't agree with that is wrong. But like Monahan, Gaudreau has his deficiencies. Some people talk about him as if he is a perfect player, to be frank Tkachuk is a more complete player and only a slight step down skill wise and offensively. If we traded Gaudreau for someone like Hall, the Flames would not be a worse team, they would be very comparable. If his heart is set on returning back home at some point, the Flames should deal him this offseason. It was Scotty Bowman that said you are best off trading players at their peak value, not when at its lowest.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Let's not pretend Ovechkin is anything like Gaudreau, they are basically polar opposites the way they play the game. Arguably Kuznetsov was their best player too. I am not saying we can't with him, but we are running out of time and decisions will need to be made.

You also didn't reply to the part about how well trading the star player usually goes for a team.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Tkachuk doesn't have the offensive production to justify getting more than Gaudreau on a six year deal. Gaudreau managed 64 and 78 points in his first two seasons; Tkachuk has yet to even break 50.

Frankly, Gaudreau is the most underrated Flame given how they're still folks who think the team would be better off without him.

You're nitpicking 50 when he scored 48 in 76 games in his first season, and scored 49 in 60 games last year. Seems an odd choice to fixate on.

Also weird to chose two first season despite a decent age difference. How many points was Johnny scoring as an 18 and 19 year old in the league again?

If Tkachuk puts up 60+ points while playing his elite level defense (which as long as he stays healthy I think he will), he's got an argument to be in the Monahan to Gaudreau range, and then you have to factor in the increase in cap since those two signed their contracts.

 

[SKRusty]

Depends on the situation to be honest, as Tkachuk may be a more complete player. But 10/10 times I want Gaudreau on the ice when I need a goal. Fortunately, we have both.

Chucky has been our clutch guy this year. Ideally we would have both on the ice but it is Chucky deflecting shots, drawing penalties and being tenacious in the way he plays. Chucky has not had elite offensive talent playing on his regular line and since he is putting up similar numbers it leads me to believe Chucky may even in fact be more offensively gifted than Johnny. And when you are talking playoff hockey Chucky's style has been proven to be more effective. Johnny disappears when you are able to check him tightly.

Many criticize Monahan for not driving play but when you are on Johnny's line you let him drive play because he is dynamic. I am not saying Johnny is not talented. He is talented... just in a different way. With Johnny you have to be the passenger. Chucky on the other hand is one who can do it all from driving play, to scoring goals, to drawing penalties and finally knocking the other team off their game.

Johnny is a treat to watch because he does 1 thing amazingly well and likely better than anyone in the league but there is more than just that 1 thing that makes up the game of hockey.

Johnny's career expectancy 10-12 years more.
Chucky's career expectancy 14-16 years more.
Johnny is near his peak.
Chucky is just learning what is under the hood.

Calc, I rarely disagree with your opinions. And if you're just subtracting Gaudreau off the team without replacing him with anyone, it is blindly obvious that we are worse off. However no one is suggesting that.

Gaudreau is our most skilled and creative player. Anyone who doesn't agree with that is wrong. But like Monahan, Gaudreau has his deficiencies. Some people talk about him as if he is a perfect player, to be frank Tkachuk is a more complete player and only a slight step down skill wise and offensively. If we traded Gaudreau for someone like Hall, the Flames would not be a worse team, they would be very comparable. If his heart is set on returning back home at some point, the Flames should deal him this offseason. It was Scotty Bowman that said you are best off trading players at their peak value, not when at its lowest.

With a cap system keeping Johnny, Mony, and Chucky will be almost impossible. The next question that has to be asked is who is the best player at Center? That is Monahan so you have to keep him. Since Johnny and Chucky play the same position you have to ask which one brings the most to the team. To me it is simple. Chucky brings way more than Johnny does.

Yes losing Johnny will hurt but there will be returns.

None of the forwards on Calgary today is a bona fide superstar.

Not 1 of the players on Calgary ranks up there with Crosby, Hall/Panarin, McDavid, Price, Ovechkin, Kucherov/ Taresenko. The only player that might be in that bracket is Gio. He is our only must not lose at this point and at his age we don't know for how long.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

With a cap system keeping Johnny, Mony, and Chucky will be almost impossible.

Since when? There are plenty of teams with three or more players of those three's caliber.

 

[SKRusty]

Since when? There are plenty of teams with three or more players of those three's caliber.

Okay add in what Valimaki will cost, Andersson, and one of Brodie and/or Hamonic... Other than the depth the only area Calgary has really big promise is on the back end.

Valimaki is likely the defensive version of Pettersson in Vancouver. Should we jeopardize the teams defense to keep one player?

Pitt has Crosby (Discount contract), Malkin, and Kessel (subsidized by the Leafs). Washington has Holtby (Discounted Contract), Carlson, Ovie(Discounted Contract) and Kuznetsov (Discounted contract).

Now who else has won a cup in the last decade?
Chicago, LA, and Boston.
Toews, Kane, Keith, Crawford and Seabrook account for almost half the payroll and they are not likely to compete again while Toews and Kane are under contract on Chicago. FYI they won their cups with Toews and Kane making 6.5 per.
LA has Doughty, and Kopitar taking up 25% of their cap and are not going to be competitive.
Boston had to retool because of contracts that were unsustainable.

There may be teams with that situation but repeat Cup contenders have 1 thing in common trade or chose not to re-sign your assets that will cost you.

Chicago- Sharp, Versteeg, Ladd, Byfuglien, Saad and Panarin. They only screwed themselves when they re-signed Toews and Kane for huge money.
Boston-Seguin, Boychuck, Horton, Lucic, and Hamilton. Chia did them in by trading away some of the wrong players.
LA- Screwed themselves with Mike Richards and when Kopitar and others needed new contracts the free agent market was not an option.
Pittsburgh- Sheary, Fleury, Rust, Perron, Cullen, Tom Kuhnhackl, Trevor Daley, and Chris Kunitz.

 

[Bounces R Way]

None of the forwards on Calgary today is a bona fide superstar.

Really? Since entering the league Johnny Gaudreau is 12th in points scored and is the youngest player in the top 25 of that category since 2014-15. Most of the other players on that list have at least one other elite forward on their team. Gaudreau gets Monahan, who while being pretty good in his own right, you'd have to be wearing some thick rose coloured glasses to call him elite. Boggles my mind anyone would see Gaudreau as expendable, this team would be totally lost offensively without him.

I love Tkachuk, I love everything he brings; I love his edge, his motor, his attention to detail, his hands, his vision, the way he pisses everyone off, he brings so much to the table. I love the player. He's not better than Johnny. All that other stuff is valuable sure and contributes to winning games but at the end of the day a Hockey game is won when you outscore the other team. No other Flame has shown to be nearly as adept at putting points on the board as Gaudreau.

 

[SKRusty]

Really? Since entering the league Johnny Gaudreau is 12th in points scored and is the youngest player in the top 25 of that category since 2014-15. Most of the other players on that list have at least one other elite forward on their team. Gaudreau gets Monahan, who while being pretty good in his own right, you'd have to be wearing some thick rose coloured glasses to call him elite. Boggles my mind anyone would see Gaudreau as expendable, this team would be totally lost offensively without him.

That's where you and I differ in that hockey is about more than points scored and if you go to advanced stats Johnny does not do nearly as well as Chucky. Then you bring in the other intangibles and from my perspective there is no question in my mind that Chucky brings more to the team. Unlike Johnny, Chucky is putting up numbers without an elite center.

Backlund on any contender would be 3rd line. Bruins Krejci / Bergeron, Toronto Tavares / Matthews, Pittsburgh Malkin / Crosby, San Jose Pavelski/ Couture/ Thorton, Tampa Stamkos/ Point, Winnipeg Sheifele/ Little (Step up offensively from Backs and likely will be upgraded at the trade deadline), Nashville Johansen/ Turris, and Minnesota Koivu/ Staal.

It boggles my mind how many like you under-rate Monahan and how skilled he is or that the line's success is solely attributed to Johnny. Johnny has never gelled with Backlund after 40-50 games all tolled. In fact the only centers other than Monahan that he has done well with Johnny in Calgary is Jankowsi and Jooris. Monahan has produced without Johnny and I thought it was really clear at the end of last season when Johnny's totals were suffering with Sean out but I guess not.

Gaudreau is not Patrick Kane and if he is to ever be a superstar that is the level he has to get to.

• He can not drive his own line like Kane can.
• Johnny does not make marginal centers look like stars like Kane.
• He is weaker defensively.
• He is not a finisher though he is getting better.

 

[Mobiandi]

This team will not win a Stanley Cup with just Tkachuk and Monahan at the forefront. Plain and simple

Contenders in the modern NHL play fast and Monahan and Tkachuk are reminiscent of the cycle-heavy, slow teams that may have had success in the early 2010s. These guys are nice complementary players that are required to win a cup but they're not enough.

Gaudreau is the guy that stirs the drink when it comes to the Flames offense. He has more than double the amount of assists than Tkachuk over the last three season. Tkachuk is a fan favourite and all but choosing to ignore that is plain delusional

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Tkachuk really is the closest thing we have had to Iginla since he was traded. People will see that more and more as the years past.

Anyways Gaudreau is fantastic and hopefully we do not have to deal him.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Tkachuk doesn't have the offensive production to justify getting more than Gaudreau on a six year deal. Gaudreau managed 64 and 78 points in his first two seasons; Tkachuk has yet to even break 50.

Frankly, Gaudreau is the most underrated Flame given how they're still folks who think the team would be better off without him.

Currently Gaudreau probably is, but for the Gulutzan era, GIordano was definitely the most underrated Flame.

 

[Anglesmith]

That's where you and I differ in that hockey is about more than points scored and if you go to advanced stats Johnny does not do nearly as well as Chucky. Then you bring in the other intangibles and from my perspective there is no question in my mind that Chucky brings more to the team. Unlike Johnny, Chucky is putting up numbers without an elite center.

If you truly are interested in the analytics, Backlund is a better centre than Monahan. If you are interested in stats that matter, then Gaudreau is the more productive player.

Tkachuk and Gaudreau are currently the best players on their respective lines. They are vastly different players. Entering the zone, Tkachuk simply cannot create offence without other guys doing the legwork around him (in a literal sense, because he can't beat other players down the ice). Gaudreau can create goals from practically nothing because of elusiveness. Tkachuk can create offence off a board battle where he sucks a guy in and leaves him in the dust. Most of the time, once you corner Gaudreau along the boards, he's toast. Very different players, and no reason to try to put one down to pump the other. We're lucky to have both.

And also, SKRusty, just like back when you were doomsdaying about the Backlund contract, we'll be fine. Treliving has built a very stable foundation with a lot of room to add. I'm not sure what it is about the way you analyze cap situations, but you seem to be missing something in the formula (or adding something in, not sure which). There are many ways to deal with the situation we're in right now, through trade, buyouts, or bridge deals. No GM is going to just flippantly trade away a core piece on a contending team unless he absolutely has to. The Flames aren't near that situation.

 

[CraigsList]

Tkachuk is such a stud. I sure hope and dream, absolutely dream that he signs a contract that is 6.75 like Gio and Gaudreau, but I can understand that it can be a little higher with the extra years. If we can get Tkachuk to 7.25 or 7.5m I would still be stoked. He's just a key part of this team and I feel that he will be our captain once Giordano is gone.

No need to argue who is the better LW between him and Gaudreau as I value them the same. If Tkachuk can push Gaudreau to the 2nd LW spot, no 2nd line team is going to be able to stop JG. That's the beauty of having two star players in the same position.

 

[JPeeper]

To put into perspective how awesome Tkachuk is, he is 5 years younger than Gaudreau.

Tkachuk is also bae and Gaudreau is not bae, so Tkachuk > Gaudreau.

Can you guys imagine how beast like Chucky is going to be in 5 years, let alone just next year or the year after. Holy f***.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Valimaki is likely the defensive version of Pettersson in Vancouver.

I legitimately sprayed some coffee out of my mouth while reading this.

Valimaki has been good in a third pairing role. Comparing him to Pettersson is beyond ridiculous.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I legitimately sprayed some coffee out of my mouth while reading this.

Valimaki has been good in a third pairing role. Comparing him to Pettersson is beyond ridiculous.

If Pettersson is the Swedish Gretzky, Valimaki is the Finnish Orr?

 

[Dack]

Tkachuk is an amazing possession player but he also plays with Backlund who's been a corsi god since before it was even tracked.

Gaudreau is instant offense, Tkachuk while good at creating chances isn't.

Three Gaudreau comparables have been traded in recent years IMO.

Hall for Larsson (One of the worst trades in the past few decades.)

Panarin for Saad (A horrific attempt at saving money that helped take the Blackhawks from perennial playoff team to bubble team.)

Kessel (retained) for Kapanen, 1st and other stuff. The only trade listed that's decent for both sides. Though Kessel is the least valuable of the 4 players because he's the oldest had a large cap hit and straight up just isn't as good as the others. Even then this isn't a clear win either way.

I don't see why we would trade Gaudreau unless we are actually looking to rebuild. Which wouldn't be an awful idea if we missed the playoffs this season.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

If Pettersson is the Swedish Gretzky, Valimaki is the Finnish Orr?

Maybe the lesser known Steven Orr.

 

[SKRusty]

Training camp start in 34 days and here is hoping Chucky's contract talks start heating up a bit so he is available on day 1.

Realistically speaking with 34 goals and 43 assists we can definitely ascertain that Matthew will earn more than W. Nylander who had 20 goals and 41 assists who's cap hit is $6.692M AAV.
The most realistic player to base Chucky on is Tarasenko who in his contract year put up 37 goals and 36 assists. The more goals counters the 4 points less Tarasenko had. Vlad signed for the maximium 8 year for $7.5M AAV and included a complete NTC for the last 4 years.

Let's say Tre signs Matthew with a full NTC for 8 years in 2015 he would have saved money and likely got the AAV down to $7.25M. Realistically today I don't see 8 years with a full NTC for less than $8.25M AAV.. The cost of inflation.

In 15-16 Johnny signed for $6.75 for 6 years with way worse possession numbers and less goals and at 23 years old. Matthew is 21 and will be considered as to having more potential. If Chucky is going to be the future captain like many analysts say he is there is no way Tre signs him for less than 8 years.

So if his salary does end up there and he is locked in for 8 years is it likely Peters and Tre will come to the agreement that Chucky will be the #1 LW?

 

[Rangediddy]

Training camp start in 34 days and here is hoping Chucky's contract talks start heating up a bit so he is available on day 1.

Realistically speaking with 34 goals and 43 assists we can definitely ascertain that Matthew will earn more than W. Nylander who had 20 goals and 41 assists who's cap hit is $6.692M AAV.
The most realistic player to base Chucky on is Tarasenko who in his contract year put up 37 goals and 36 assists. The more goals counters the 4 points less Tarasenko had. Vlad signed for the maximium 8 year for $7.5M AAV and included a complete NTC for the last 4 years.

Let's say Tre signs Matthew with a full NTC for 8 years in 2015 he would have saved money and likely got the AAV down to $7.25M. Realistically today I don't see 8 years with a full NTC for less than $8.25M AAV.. The cost of inflation.

In 15-16 Johnny signed for $6.75 for 6 years with way worse possession numbers and less goals and at 23 years old. Matthew is 21 and will be considered as to having more potential. If Chucky is going to be the future captain like many analysts say he is there is no way Tre signs him for less than 8 years.

So if his salary does end up there and he is locked in for 8 years is it likely Peters and Tre will come to the agreement that Chucky will be the #1 LW?

I don't see anything changing on our top 5 forwards to start the season. I also don't think guaranteeing a player a certain place in the lineup is part of contract negotiations. I also also don't think Tkachuk cares if he's #1 LW or #2 LW at this point. He knows he'll be on the top line soon enough and honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Gaudreau get bumped down for him, but Tre has zero influence on where he plays... neither Tre or Peters are those kind of people.

 

[InfinityIggy]

I legitimately sprayed some coffee out of my mouth while reading this.

Valimaki has been good in a third pairing role. Comparing him to Pettersson is beyond ridiculous.

I actually agree with him, Petterson is pretty okay I guess. Wouldn't want to bet on him in a fantasy league though.

 

[Rangediddy]

Does anyone know of a comparable for Tkachuk who started their career strong, with a similar skillset, but failed to live up to their deal out of ELC?

While I know Tkachuk is rock bottom level risk for being a bust, I'm sure lots would have doubted Laine would be capable of declining after his first year. We've just been talking about how good he is and comparables (ie: Johnny), but are there similar players Tre could use to dampen Matty's ask?

 

[SKRusty]

I don't see anything changing on our top 5 forwards to start the season. I also don't think guaranteeing a player a certain place in the lineup is part of contract negotiations. I also also don't think Tkachuk cares if he's #1 LW or #2 LW at this point. He knows he'll be on the top line soon enough and honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Gaudreau get bumped down for him, but Tre has zero influence on where he plays... neither Tre or Peters are those kind of people.

Everything about Chucky has said the complete opposite. He thrives on being the player that makes the difference between winning and losing and this his fourth season he will likely step up and take what is his. I will never forget his performance through the 2016 CHL playoffs. He is our only drafted player to show that championship pedigree before he hit the NHL. Chucky lives to be the difference maker.

Does anyone know of a comparable for Tkachuk who started their career strong, with a similar skillset, but failed to live up to their deal out of ELC?

While I know Tkachuk is rock bottom level risk for being a bust, I'm sure lots would have doubted Laine would be capable of declining after his first year. We've just been talking about how good he is and comparables (ie: Johnny), but are there similar players Tre could use to dampen Matty's ask?

Where is the weakness in Matthews game? Unlike Johnny in his contract year Matthews possession metrics are near the top of the league. Unlike Johnny, Matthew put his points up on the second line. Unlike Liane, Matthew is not streaky with few droughts on his record. Other players going into their 4th year -Marner 224 pts, Patrick Liane -184 pts, Matthew Tkachuk - 174 pts, Matthew Barzal 147 pts, Pierre Luc-Dubois 109 pts, Zach Werenski 128 points.

Matthew has taken control of his issues with discipline on the ice. I really don't know where Tre can be critical.