Prospect Info: Matthew Tkachuk or PL Dubois (Round 3)

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Evolu7ion

#firelindenning
Sep 20, 2010
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Taken from Canucksarmy who have Dubois ranked #4:

9K2yRto.jpg


"Dubois started the season a little rocky, but around the 15-18 game mark of the season he began his steady climb and then hovered around 1.5 PPG. Dubois is a major creator of plays which is reinforced by his 83 primary points, which was first in the entire CHL amongst draft eligible players."

Man... He's just trending up and up, especially considering the fact he switched to center midway through the season. Just look at that trend beginning at game 18 where he switched to C. Has that diamond in the rough feeling to him... There's something really special about PLD... And I just don't get how someone who puts up that type of primary offensive production can be considered to have questionable offensive upside which is what a lot of draft profiles I'm reading are saying.
 
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Evolu7ion

#firelindenning
Sep 20, 2010
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He's a consensus top 5 pick and due to positional primacy has the potential of rising as high as 3rd. He's not a diamond in the rough, he's a diamond in a particularly diamond heavy part of the diamond mine.

Yeah fair enough... I just mean he has a strong chance to be a lot better than some of the projections I've seen. Most seem to think he's a top end 2C/low end 1C, two way type of guy, whereas I think he will turn out to be a dominant 1C (top 15 amongst centers) in the league in his prime. Most are thinking this guy is a double, when really he could very easily be a home run.
 
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thefeebster

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I love Puljujarvi just as much as anyone else here but I do think it's not totally impossible for him to slip to 4 or even 5. Players who are unable to attend the combine and have injury problems do tend to slide more in the draft.
I agree that he could certainly slip one spot or two at most, it isn't out of the question but it won't be because he wasn't able to do the fitness testing at the combine or because of his injuries sustained at the end of the season. Top players who are injured most of the season don't even fall that much (See Galchenyuk/Rielly).

Many of the top 5 players or players with long seasons have not in the past completed the fitness testing. Puljujarvi participated in the interview process, which is more important than the fitness testing will probably ever be. The fitness testing is really not terribly important or a conclusive predictor for success at the next level. The fitness testing at the combine, in itself, will not be the reason why Puljujarvi could slip a spot or two.
 

F A N

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Aug 12, 2005
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The way Benning talks about Dubois (the ability to play a physical game and a skilled game) makes me think that Benning likes him more.

I am actually a bit intrigued by Logan Brown. Heard he gave great interviews. I am not sure he is among the 5 forwards the Canucks have targeted though.
 

Shareefruck

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Apr 2, 2005
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I've really got my heart set on Dubois. Tkachuk would be a nice consolation prize, but it would still feel like a consolation prize to me.
???

I don't see how I'm being 'pedantic'. I'm saying the term "first liner" covers a range of quality players, from the best forward in the league to the 30th. Beyond 30th they are into another tier of quality ("2nd liners") and so forth.

You are the one who is trying to impose fairly arbitrary standards on the term by saying it should only apply to those at or above the median, as if being the 16th or 17th scorer isn't good enough or something.

I'm applying a definition that is purely technical - there are 30 first lines in the league so the top 30 players would set the bar for a "first liner" - while you are bringing personal nuance and bias into it. What if people want an even tighter definition than yours - maybe it should only apply to the top 10 centres. Or maybe a bit looser - like the top 23. Whatever the argument, it ends up changing the definition to suit the tastes of the person.

I'm merely saying to peg it to something objective - 30 first lines is as good as anything - and take the personal subjectivity out of it. That way we can all use the term with a common frame of reference, rather than get sidetracked like we are now.

And I'm baffled by your comment about "not projecting a 1st line prospect that I wouldn't want on my first line". How do you make that leap? If I can draft a kid who projects to put up 60 points a year - making him a lower end "first liner" - I'd absolutely draft him. Why wouldn't I? 60 points is still good production relative to every player in the league. Are you suggesting you wouldn't draft a low end first liner because that somehow would "weaken" you first line? What would you rather draft? A 54 point "high end second liner" instead?

I think you're taking these terms too literally. It is a general measure of quality yes, but a low end first liner is still a damn good player and you draft him every time unless a better player was there instead.

Edit: And again I'll ask you a simple question: If you draw a line at the term meaning an "above average first liner" meaning the 15th highest scorer or higher, then what term would you use to describe the 16th-30th highest scorers? Second liners doesn't work, since that would only apply to the top 15 second line scorers (31-45) if you are being consistent with you terms. Also since many of the 16-30 scorers likely actually do play on a team's "first line", it would be factually incorrect to call them second liners. So what would you call them?
My personal rule of thumb would be the opposite of the one you made earlier-- I think that when the context of discussions assume that you're talking about ideal/adequate scenarios for a team hoping to contend, from the POV of a fan/supporter who wants the team to draft well, the qualifier is necessary for further clarification only when you deviate from the expectation.

If I'm having a discussion with someone about prospects, I would expect that "1st line center" by itself would refer to a player who meets the standard of an average 1st line center (simply because that's what we automatically think of when we hear the term), and if they were talking about someone who would be more borderline but technically is still a top 30 center, I would expect them to call the player a "below average 1st line center."

I'm not arguing that this view must be shared by everyone or that it is authoritatively correct, nor does it bother me that you use it your way, which is also sensible-- but I think if you are attempting to enforce a more literal definition for everyone and criticize a post that doesn't conform to it, that's probably overly anal and pedantic.

I agree with most of what Bitturbo said, and he brings up another good point that I didn't consider. The literal objectively undeniable definition of a 1st liner is probably someone who plays on the highest minute line on the team, irrespective of whether their team lacks talent or has Malkin playing on a second line (and technically being a literal second liner). I would never use the label this way myself, nor would I hold it against anyone for not adhering to this overly literal definition in everyday conversation, but I do think the way we want to use these terms are inherently arbitrary.

Really the argument boils down to this for me:
Person A: "I just don't think he's going to be a 1st line center."
Person B: "Well, I think he can outscore the 30th best center, so technically he is a 1st line center."
Person A: "Uhh, okay, but I'm talking about a normal one, not a borderline one."
Person B: "Then you should have said so! Be more precise!"

While both schools of thought seem valid to me, in that conversation, I definitely think Person B is being overly anal and tedious, and that Person A isn't unreasonable enough with the way he's using the term to warrant that reaction.
 
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CanaFan

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I've really got my heart set on Dubois. Tkachuk would be a nice consolation prize, but it would still feel like a consolation prize to me.
My personal rule of thumb would be the opposite of the one you made earlier-- I think that when the context of discussions assume that you're talking about ideal/adequate scenarios for a team hoping to contend, from the POV of a fan/supporter who wants the team to draft well, the qualifier is necessary for further clarification only when you deviate from the expectation.

If I'm having a discussion with someone about prospects, I would expect that "1st line center" by itself would refer to a player who meets the standard of an average 1st line center (simply because that's what we automatically think of when we hear the term), and if they were talking about someone who would be more borderline but technically is still a top 30 center, I would expect them to call the player a "below average 1st line center."

I'm not arguing that this view must be shared by everyone or that it is authoritatively correct, nor does it bother me that you use it your way, which is also sensible-- but I think if you are attempting to enforce a more literal definition for everyone and criticize a post that doesn't conform to it, that's probably overly anal and pedantic.

I agree with most of what Bitturbo said, and he brings up another good point that I didn't consider. The literal objectively undeniable definition of a 1st liner is probably someone who plays on the highest minute line on the team, irrespective of whether their team lacks talent or has Malkin playing on a second line (and technically being a literal second liner). I would never use the label this way myself, nor would I hold it against anyone for not adhering to this overly literal definition in everyday conversation, but I do think the way we want to use these terms are inherently arbitrary.

Really the argument boils down to this for me:
Person A: "I just don't think he's going to be a 1st line center."
Person B: "Well, I think he can outscore the 30th best center, so technically he is a 1st line center."
Person A: "Uhh, okay, but I'm talking about a normal one, not a borderline one."
Person B: "Then you should have said so! Be more precise!"

While both schools of thought seem valid to me, in that conversation, I definitely think Person B is being overly anal and tedious, and that Person A isn't unreasonable enough with the way he's using the term to warrant that reaction.

Again I'm not sure I'm the one being anal here. I'm comfortable using the term to describe a player of high, average, or low first line quality. If anything I'm being broad in my use of the word.

You introduced added specifications ("one would assume that when talking about a first line centre you would want said centre to be above average") and disagreed with my use of the term. Funny that you jumped in and introduced these additional conditions, which seem kind of personally subjective and not likely to be shared by everyone, and then tell me that I'm being anal and pedantic.

Honestly I'm fine with disagreeing and having these debates, but when the conversation slides into slurs like that I lose my taste for it pretty quick.

So by all means, call any player whatever you like. It certainly isn't worth the hassle this has become.

Edit:

For the record, here was my response to the first poster regarding the matter. I think I was pretty respectful in my comment and suggestions about saving time by just being clear in what you mean rather tossing out a personal definition and then taking 3 pages of posting to realize you agree but just use the term differently.

I don't have to change anything. People can have whatever definition they would like. I'm sure my opinion isn't popular but I look at things differently than most probably will.

When I think number 1 center or number 1 defenseman I think someone that is the type you can build a contender/winner around. Is it fair? no but I have a much higher expectation of what I want a number 1 guy to be. Brown could put up 55 points and I'm still not gonna consider him a number 1 center even if he's amongst the Top 30 centers in scoring.

Most think Tanev is a number 1 defenseman but I personally don't think the canucks can win a cup/go deep in the playoffs with Tanev as our number 1 defenseman. This is not taking anything away from Tanev as I think very highly of him..

Fine but when most people use the term they aren't using it in that way so in future it would probably be best if you clarify or use something like "top 10-15 centre" so that everyone is on the same page in the discussion. It just saves people arguing for 5 pages about something they probably wouldn't disagree with if they just knew that you meant something different.

Why you felt the need to jump in at this point when we were pretty much done just to berate and chastise my suggestion for clarity is puzzling to me.
 
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Verviticus

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Jul 23, 2010
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its more than possible to build a team around the 30th best centre as your first line centre. youre allowed to make up deficiencies elsewhere

I've really got my heart set on Dubois. Tkachuk would be a nice consolation prize, but it would still feel like a consolation prize to me.

im kind of sick of those tbh
 

Shareefruck

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Apr 2, 2005
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Slurs? Didn't expect that to be taken personally. I apologize if you were offended.

What triggered the whole thing for me was whenever someone uses the term "1st liner" to mean something more than a top 30 center, I've noticed that it tends to get shot down rather quickly and accepted as being wrong. I was simply defending that I think there is reasonable/valid reason to use it this way, and why someone may see it as being sensible compared to the alternatives. I tried to clarify that none of the reasons were intended to be authoritative, but I guess that didn't get communicated. It was intended as a defense of one view-point, not a condemnation of the other.

I think the act of policing that usage (which I do think people tend to do) seems uncalled for/overly pedantic to me. If you weren't doing that, and merely adopted different usage yourself, then I guess the comment wasn't directed at you-- I don't remember directly targeting you personally, but I apologize if I gave you that impression (or if I happened to quote you when making the comment or something).
 
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Verviticus

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Jul 23, 2010
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Slurs? Didn't expect that to be taken personally. I apologize if you were offended.

he probably means me

The literal objectively undeniable definition of a 1st liner is probably someone who plays on the highest minute line on the team, irrespective of whether their team lacks talent or has Malkin playing on a second line (and technically being a literal second liner).

hey wait, im pretty sure it was me that said this (and that it would be insane to use)

no wonder you think bitturbo's such a swell guy, you're reading my posts as his!
 
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CanaFan

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Slurs? Didn't expect that to be taken personally. I apologize if you were offended.

What triggered the whole thing for me was whenever someone uses the term "1st liner" to mean something more than a top 30 center, I've noticed that it tends to get shot down rather quickly and accepted as being wrong. I was simply defending that I think there is reasonable/valid reason to use it this way, and why someone may see it as being sensible compared to the alternatives. I tried to clarify that none of the reasons were intended to be authoritative, but I guess that didn't get communicated. It was intended as a defense of one view-point, not a condemnation of the other.

I think the act of policing that usage (which I do think people tend to do) seems uncalled for/overly pedantic to me. If you weren't doing that, and merely adopted different usage yourself, then I guess the comment wasn't directed at you-- I don't remember directly targeting you personally, but I apologize if I gave you that impression (or if I happened to quote you when making the comment or something).

All good man. I just don't care for having my views characterized as pedantic/anal. My views are my views, as yours are yours. We can disagree without belittling them in that way. My only reason for "asking" for some more clarity from the other poster is we initially disagreed over whether anyone in the draft besides Matthews/Laine could be a "first line player". After arguing for a page or two it came out that he simply means "an above average first liner" when he says "first liner". Which doesn't seem terribly obvious to me and if he had just said so in the first place I would have just agreed with him and moved on to better conversations.
 

Shareefruck

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Apr 2, 2005
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To be fair, I'm not really sure characterizing a certain action as being "overly pedantic" is the same thing as belittling someone. If the action isn't guilty of that, then that can and should be defended. And also for the record, the action that I intended to characterize as being overly pedantic was the "Just because you have your own crazy definition for it, doesn't make it any less wrong. Use it the right way" general attitude. While you may not have been doing it, I do recall that general attitude coming from some posters-- That was what made me go off on the subject.
 
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BloatedGuppy

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Jun 29, 2007
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The way Benning talks about Dubois (the ability to play a physical game and a skilled game) makes me think that Benning likes him more.

I am actually a bit intrigued by Logan Brown. Heard he gave great interviews. I am not sure he is among the 5 forwards the Canucks have targeted though.

Logan Brown fascinates me. I'm scared to draft him, and I'm scared to not draft him. Much as other people see dominant prime first line center in Dubois, I see the same in Logan Brown.

The thought of him going to Calgary is nauseating.
 

Shareefruck

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I'm still not sold on Logan Brown's upside. I've heard people argue that he uses his size to his advantage and that this means he inherently isn't soft, and that may be true, but I still find him slow, plodding, and passive. I'm not sure I see the same upside that so many others do, and the risk is way bigger than Dubois/Tkachuk's is.

at best I can fathom his upside potentially matching Dubois/Tkachuk's, but even then I don't really see it.
 

oceanchild

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Jul 5, 2009
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The Finnish connection is irrelevant. He'll take Puljujarvi because he's the best prospect both short and long term at that spot. The fact that they share a homeland is so overblown as far as the "reason" they'll take him. I mean if Dubois was Finnish and Pulju was Canadian the odds would be the exact same that they'd take Pulju.

This... The GM is going to draft the player he and his scouts feel is BPA and in the event of a tie shores up a positional weekness. Nationality would at best be a third factor in the decision matrix unless something like Auston Mathews was available at 1 and everyone had him ranked 2 and the pick belonged to Phoenix and the owner got involved. That's a lot of ifs.

Now incompetence can change things in a hurry, but a GM that drafts a player because they share a nationality will become unemployed quickly.
 

Evolu7ion

#firelindenning
Sep 20, 2010
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I'm still not sold on Logan Brown's upside. I've heard people argue that he uses his size to his advantage and that this means he inherently isn't soft, and that may be true, but I still find him slow, plodding, and passive. I'm not sure I see the same upside that so many others do, and the risk is way bigger than Dubois/Tkachuk's is.

at best I can fathom his upside potentially matching Dubois/Tkachuk's, but even then I don't really see it.

I agree. Honestly, Brown is incredibly difficult to evaluate IMO, perhaps the most difficult to assess in in the top 30. Watching the highlights and looking at his stats/data, he certainly seems to have big time upside, but the overall risk does seem quite a bit higher than other prospects...

Truly a boom or bust pick.
 

Verviticus

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Jul 23, 2010
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brown isnt really that enigmatic. he has pretty good production for a pick, and he gets a little bonus because he's tall
 

thefeebster

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brown isnt really that enigmatic. he has pretty good production for a pick, and he gets a little bonus because he's tall
But he is. I have seen several games where he is barely even visible, little to no impact on a game for 59 minutes, then might show up for one shift and flash some of his skill, might even pick up a point. But then he will show up some games like he did at the U18s, where he and his line were driving play and creating chances nearly every shift. Which Brown will we be getting? He's enigma.
 

CanaFan

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beachcomber

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Kaboomer

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Nothing. If Dubois is there the Canucks will take him. I'm sure Dubois has realized he won't be be available to Montreal for some time now.

I listened to an interview with Dubois (radio clip interview on TSN Edmonton or a video clip somewhere else) and he was talking as if he was going to Montreal. Gave me some cause for concern at the time and now we see some more smoke. The family must be pressing the issue somewhat. Memories of silent G come to mind. I don't know if we would be prudent to ignore it.
 

Zaddy91

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Jul 22, 2014
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gallagher + 1st

i dont mind if edmonton trades mtl or nj the 4th so those teams can take dubois

i see tkachuk as the superior player. you cant beat the skill around the net you need especially as LW

primary assists mean a fair bit but secondary assists can often be the better play impossible to say.

size is overrated. i want lucic and shpport gudbranson but i put the transition to the nhl as a bit harder for bigger guy who may have used their size in a jnr league to score their points which may not be the case in the nhl. quebec is likely smaller too so dubois had a natural edge.

i love tkachuk. its in the oilers hands to pick him and give us dubois.

i see them going tkachuk you pair that kind of player with mcdavid and good things happen. the perfect pass for the perfect tip. its cake.

also tkachuk is 2nd to mcdavid in ohl playoff scoring. it doesnt matter if ur with marner youre playing playiff hockey against top qoc and dominating. you will be a star.
 
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