News Article: Matt Pfeffer (analytics guy) let go **Mod Warning Post 402** Read before posting

[417]

Which arguably could be better in the sense that Markov can stay on his strong side too.

If Markov is on his strong side...then he option of Markov to Radulov/Galchenyuk on RW is nullified.

Markov is the QB....hes at his best when he's on the left point and he can pass across the blueline to another left handed shot or across to the RW half boards to another left hand shot.

 

[Cole Caulifield]

In what world is a 20 goal, 50 point, 6'4" 240lb team canada starting defenceman ever considered "average?"

Maybe his 21 years of life on this planet are enough experience to make these calls. Any wonder now why this kid didn't have his contract renewed?

I don't think it's an age thing.

Mathman reminds me a lot of Pfeffer. Same with Berkshire. They have some form of assurance born out of confidence in their intellect. There is no doubt that they are all intelligent innovative people. But they have some misplaced confidence in unproven theories. Advanced stats are at their very first faltering steps and a lot of it is pure garbage. Just take Pfeffer's comments when he talks about Corsi. It isn't even what he's looking at, he's looking at goals differential. He seems to be saying that Corsi is only good if the sample is too small. 99% of people on these boards have been making arguments based on shot differentials. Pfeffer basically just shot all of them down in flames, yet people are defending him because he disavowed the Weber-Subban trade?

How about... advanced stats are still at embryo stage for a game like the game of hockey. There is not one doubt that eventually there will be advanced mathematical models to predict just about everything that can occur in life.. even if it's in 3000 years.. but it will happen as our understanding of the world grows. But if that were to happen.. we would actually lose interest in all of it... what interest is there in something so easily predictable ? Would anyone be interested in watching coin flips ?

 

[scrubadam]

I don't think it's an age thing.

Mathman reminds me a lot of Pfeffer. Same with Berkshire. They have some form of confidence born out of confidence in their intellect. There is no doubt that they are all intelligent innovative people. But they have some misplaced confidence in unproven theories. Advanced stats are at their very first faltering steps and a lot of it is pure garbage. Just take Pfeffer's comments when he talks about Corsi. It isn't even what he's looking at, he's looking at goals differential. He seems to be saying that Corsi is only good if the sample is too small. 99% of people on these boards have been making arguments based on shot differentials. Pfeffer basically just shot all of them down in flames, yet people are defending him because he disavowed the Weber-Subban trade?

How about... advanced stats are still at embryo stage for a game like the game of hockey. There is not one doubt that eventually there will be advanced mathematical models to predict just about everything that can occur in life.. even if it's in 3000 years.. but it will happen as our understanding of the world grows. But if that were to happen.. we would actually lose interest in all of it... what interest is there in something so easily predictable ?

Once we get super computers and understand advanced quantum mechanics and computing better we wont even need to play hockey. We can just feed in stats to the computer and it will accurately predict the outcome. No need for the human element anymore. The big debate will be should our GM be powered by Intel or AMD?

 

[Sterling Archer]

I don't think it's an age thing.

Mathman reminds me a lot of Pfeffer. Same with Berkshire. They have some form of assurance born out of confidence in their intellect. There is no doubt that they are all intelligent innovative people. But they have some misplaced confidence in unproven theories. Advanced stats are at their very first faltering steps and a lot of it is pure garbage. Just take Pfeffer's comments when he talks about Corsi. It isn't even what he's looking at, he's looking at goals differential. He seems to be saying that Corsi is only good if the sample is too small. 99% of people on these boards have been making arguments based on shot differentials. Pfeffer basically just shot all of them down in flames, yet people are defending him because he disavowed the Weber-Subban trade?

How about... advanced stats are still at embryo stage for a game like the game of hockey. There is not one doubt that eventually there will be advanced mathematical models to predict just about everything that can occur in life.. even if it's in 3000 years.. but it will happen as our understanding of the world grows. But if that were to happen.. we would actually lose interest in all of it... what interest is there in something so easily predictable ? Would anyone be interested in watching coin flips ?

I agree with almost everything you posted. In particular the part about stats being far more useful in the future when it's been refined and perhaps with the aid of quantum computing.

The only part I don't agree is the age. Experience counts for something and as you get older you can learn from past experiences and use them. His age may not have been a direct factor but it certainly didn't help.

 

[Whitesnake]

But Whitesnake...do you think the Habs not renewing the contract of their analytics guy, who was signed to a 1yr deal, would of even have registered on anyone's radar had the Subban for Weber trade not gone down?

It became a story, because everything associated with the name PK Subban, whether directly or indirectly, gets blown up to ridiculous levels.

I find it embarrassing that the Habs had to issue a statement essentially defending themselves for this.

Well before the trade, there was a story, obviously not as spectacular, that Habs didn't seem to be interested in analytics. So there was a concern there. And then paired with the trade and the analysis of that guy....well the day that you trade one of the most popular player that has ever played for this franchise, one of the most spectacular player this franchise has seen, and that you know that there might be a possibility that people will pair this with the trade, you don't do anything about it? You deserve the outrage EVEN if it has NOTHING to do with that. Yep, pretty embarassing indeed that they didn't have the thought process to say that BEFORE we knew it the way we did, that a guy was let go and others would come. It would have been a story without the trae based on the history....it obviously became an even greater story. I say obviously but incredibly enough, it wasn't obvious to them. For a professionnal team runs by professionnals...it's pretty sad.

The day you understand that perception is reality, you act accordingly. They are in their own world, they better win or they'll pay a big price.

 

[Bieber fever]

Whats wrong with saying Weber is average ?

 

[BLONG7]

Whats wrong with saying Weber is average ?

Team Canada gets upset...

 

[Sterling Archer]

Whats wrong with saying Weber is average ?

Because he's far from average. If your job is to help inform your execs to help in player evaluation and you give a heated presentation saying they're trading a hockey God for an average defenseman there's a problem.

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

In what world is a 20 goal, 50 point, 6'4" 240lb team canada starting defenceman ever considered "average?"

Maybe his 21 years of life on this planet are enough experience to make these calls. Any wonder now why this kid didn't have his contract renewed?

He said Weber was average by a particular statistical metric and it was reported in a quote that failled to include said context. Whether that was done deliberately by the writer to rile up people who would react the same way you are is an exercised left up to the reader.

There may be an important life lesson to take away here about the importance of never giving a journalist an on the record quote that can make you look bad out of context. Many reporters and pundits thrive on that kind of thing in the quest for hits and clicks.

 

[Whitesnake]

The best part of this all are posters who are bashing Pfeffer to "forget the context" when they clearly don't care the "context" of why Pfeffer said those things. Which he now clarify for the ones who didn't get it in the first place, something I thought was clear from the get go. Pfeffer is an analytics guys who said that Weber had "average" numbers based on his personal analysis. In no way, obviously, did Pfeffer was talking about the leadership factor and all that other stuff.....

In this whole debate of which journalist says what...we clearly see that it doesn't matter. No matter if a journalist you like or hate say something you like or hate, you will turn it the way you want so that it fits your theory. And you know what....it's perfectly normal. I prefer that over having theories based on what journalists are saying.....let's have opinions first....shows a higher degree of intelligence....

 

[Cole Caulifield]

Whats wrong with saying Weber is average ?

In what world is scoring 20 goals average ? Even for a forward... it's actually top 6 material.

I don't see how an analytical mind can come to think in a way that 20 goals and consistent top 20 Norris voting is average for a dman.

Perhaps because he thinks that his analytical model can accurately depict the overall contribution of Weber as being average ? As in... he doesn't impact his team in more goals for/against than another player ? Perhaps he's 100% right and his model depicts reality very closely... but without having looked at his model, and his conclusions it's difficult for me to tell you why the habs management thought he was out to lunch. All I know is that there's nothing average about a 20g50pts dman who brings a physical edge. How can that be average ? Even if there is some sort of overall metric that could accurately represent Weber's overall worth as average... how can you have such little common sense as to actually tell the truth? Every single hockey expert in the world has Shea Weber in high esteem. His actual results show him to be one of the best goal scorer as a dman. His Norris voting results place him in the top 20 at worst. How can someone involved professionally in the hockey world claim he's average ? Did he mean that Weber is an average #1 dman ? That would make him #15. If so, it's not that ludicrous. But in terms of vocabulary and common sense... average is bad optics. And it shows that Pfeffer likely is another one of those kids with high intellect and little practical common sense.

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

The best part of this all are posters who are bashing Pfeffer to "forget the context" when they clearly don't care the "context" of why Pfeffer said those things. Which he now clarify for the ones who didn't get it in the first place, something I thought was clear from the get go. Pfeffer is an analytics guys who said that Weber had "average" numbers based on his personal analysis. In no way, obviously, did Pfeffer was talking about the leadership factor and all that other stuff.....

In this whole debate of which journalist says what...we clearly see that it doesn't matter. No matter if a journalist you like or hate say something you like or hate, you will turn it the way you want so that it fits your theory. And you know what....it's perfectly normal. I prefer that over having theories based on what journalists are saying.....let's have opinions first....shows a higher degree of intelligence....

Well lets also be very clear here. The context for saying Weber was average was a specific impact on team goal differential at even strength. If you bring up him scoring 20 goals then that number wasn't relevant at all to the statement. So there is a strawman being set up here of the "clueless numbers guy" to beat up on.

To be absolutely fair though, its not as if taking a statement out of context to build an image of a guy to beat the heck out of isn't common practice for just about everyone, everywhere. Plenty of Therrien or Bergevin quotes for example get used for the same thing.

Or how a moment of honest self-criticism by Plekanec became his defining epitaph for his detractors.

 

[417]

Well before the trade, there was a story, obviously not as spectacular, that Habs didn't seem to be interested in analytics. So there was a concern there. And then paired with the trade and the analysis of that guy....well the day that you trade one of the most popular player that has ever played for this franchise, one of the most spectacular player this franchise has seen, and that you know that there might be a possibility that people will pair this with the trade, you don't do anything about it? You deserve the outrage EVEN if it has NOTHING to do with that. Yep, pretty embarassing indeed that they didn't have the thought process to say that BEFORE we knew it the way we did, that a guy was let go and others would come. It would have been a story without the trae based on the history....it obviously became an even greater story. I say obviously but incredibly enough, it wasn't obvious to them. For a professionnal team runs by professionnals...it's pretty sad.

The day you understand that perception is reality, you act accordingly. They are in their own world, they better win or they'll pay a big price.

You think the team should of gotten ahead of the news that they weren't renewing their analytics guy who was hired on a 1yr contract, simply because PK Subban was traded 2 weeks ago?

Really?

Then you wonder why I say that PK Subban had gotten bigger than the Montreal Canadiens...

 

[Adam Michaels]

Well before the trade, there was a story, obviously not as spectacular, that Habs didn't seem to be interested in analytics. So there was a concern there. And then paired with the trade and the analysis of that guy....well the day that you trade one of the most popular player that has ever played for this franchise, one of the most spectacular player this franchise has seen, and that you know that there might be a possibility that people will pair this with the trade, you don't do anything about it? You deserve the outrage EVEN if it has NOTHING to do with that. Yep, pretty embarassing indeed that they didn't have the thought process to say that BEFORE we knew it the way we did, that a guy was let go and others would come. It would have been a story without the trae based on the history....it obviously became an even greater story. I say obviously but incredibly enough, it wasn't obvious to them. For a professionnal team runs by professionnals...it's pretty sad.

The day you understand that perception is reality, you act accordingly. They are in their own world, they better win or they'll pay a big price.

Bergevin doesn't give two craps if fans are mad at him. He's said it from the start of his tenure, he won't make moves to please the fans. He'll make them because he believes he makes his team better. That goes from on-ice to behind the scenes. Not renewing the analytics guy after the Subban-Weber trade doesn't mean a damn to MB how it looks to fans and media.

Letang said it best a week ago when asked what he thinks of Montreal trading such a popular player like Subban. He answered "Popular to who? Do you build teams for the fans or to win championships?"

 

[Whitesnake]

You think the team should of gotten ahead of the news that they weren't renewing their analytics guy who was hired on a 1yr contract, simply because PK Subban was traded 2 weeks ago?

Really?

Then you wonder why I say that PK Subban had gotten bigger than the Montreal Canadiens...

Well really as in "reality". Well...yep? Why? 'Cause what are we living now that they didn't? Who cares if PK was bigger than the Montreal Canadiens? I still don't see your point. Should we trade Price 'cause he's also bigger than the Habs? Should we have traded Roy because he was bigger? Oh wait, we did, and immediately after we did trade Roy, this selfish *******, the team came first and the rest is history......

To this day, I have no idea how PK being bigger is so bad. This Habs team build to be an average team had the PRIVILEGE to have a PK who would make the fans forget about how average this team is. You want to know what it will be for this average team to be average without PK? You have to hope that Bergevin and Co never find out....

 

[Whitesnake]

Bergevin doesn't give two craps if fans are mad at him. He's said it from the start of his tenure, he won't make moves to please the fans. He'll make them because he believes he makes his team better. That goes from on-ice to behind the scenes. Not renewing the analytics guy after the Subban-Weber trade doesn't mean a damn to MB how it looks to fans and media.

Letang said it best a week ago when asked what he thinks of Montreal trading such a popular player like Subban. He answered "Popular to who? Do you build teams for the fans or to win championships?"

Great! So if he doesn't give 2 craps if fans are mad....why are posters in here so fragile about critics being given to him? Shouldn't everyboyd give 2 craps about how we react towards them? Should it works both ways? And if he didn't care about the timing of the "firing", well fine too. He shouldn't or nobody else should care if he gets crap for it too.

 

[417]

Well really as in "reality". Well...yep? Why? 'Cause what are we living now that they didn't? Who cares if PK was bigger than the Montreal Canadiens? I still don't see your point. Should we trade Price 'cause he's also bigger than the Habs? Should we have traded Roy because he was bigger? Oh wait, we did, and immediately after we did trade Roy, this selfish *******, the team came first and the rest is history......

To this day, I have no idea how PK being bigger is so bad. This Habs team build to be an average team had the PRIVILEGE to have a PK who would make the fans forget about how average this team is. You want to know what it will be for this average team to be average without PK? You have to hope that Bergevin and Co never find out....

But Price is NOT bigger than the Montreal Canadiens, I don't understand how you and others can continue to say this lol its not even comparable.

Price is the Montreal Canadiens most important player, but bigger than the Habs??

Please, he has very little personality, he's way too reserved for that, his presence on social media isn't even close to touching Subban's, his interaction with dans/ media doesn't come close...his off ice endeavors don't approach those of Subban, I could go on and on here.

Enough with this ridiculous comparison...

Carey Price is as vanilla as it gets...

And how can you not see my point, yet at the same time say the Habs should have gotten in front of announcing that they weren't renewing the contract of a 21yr old analytics guy who was hired on a 1yr deal, simply because PK Subban was traded 2 weeks prior.

Did the San Jose Sharks have to justify not bringing back Matt Pfeffer? Or what about the 67's??

Did they need to get out ahead of that news too??

Also, why are you bringing up Roy and selfishness? I have not called PK Subban selfish once, he is many things, selfish is not one.

And you think PK Subban made Habs fans think the team was more than average??

I guess you haven't spent much time on the Habs HF boards page the past 6 months have you??

 

[Cole Caulifield]

The worst part about these comments from Pfeffer is that the habs are losers no matter what. Even if they were right to fire him because he's a moron, then it means they hired a moron in the first place and are behind in advanced stats. And if Pfeffer is right it's even worse so let's not even think about that but either way.. it's not good for us.

 

[Whitesnake]

But Price is NOT bigger than the Montreal Canadiens, I don't understand how you and others can continue to say this lol its not even comparable.

Price is the Montreal Canadiens most important player, but bigger than the Habs??

Please, he has very little personality, he's way too reserved for that, his presence on social media isn't even close to touching Subban's, his interaction with dans/ media doesn't come close...his off ice endeavors don't approach those of Subban, I could go on and on here.

Enough with this ridiculous comparison...

What's ridiculous is to focus on how a guy handles himself in front of a camera instead of on the ice. THAT is ridiculous. And to mix it all up with the "team concept" is simply insane. PK's success would reflect on the team. Just like Price's success would too. You are talking about how insane the importance that the fans give to PK and yet, YOU are giving his off-ice supposed issues so much importance that it was worth it to trade him because of it. Frankly, I'd rather we would have continued on the "bigger than the team" based on hockey rather than personnality 'cause that way....the trade is even worst. If only the trade would have been about hockey on the ice....

PK being BIGGER than the Habs means less people watching and going to games. I guess you did lose a few people until....we win 2 games in a row with 4 points by Weber. Can,t wait to see how much bigger PK to Habs will end up being.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Great! So if he doesn't give 2 craps if fans are mad....why are posters in here so fragile about critics being given to him? Shouldn't everyboyd give 2 craps about how we react towards them? Should it works both ways? And if he didn't care about the timing of the "firing", well fine too. He shouldn't or nobody else should care if he gets crap for it too.

Because posters have their own opinions. As do you. And as do I. Bergevin doesn't run the organization to cater to you or I. Whether we agree with his moves or not. Whether you say it is sad that they didn't have the thought process to understand the backlash they'd get with firing the analytics guy after the trade. They don't care what the optics are to fans.

 

[habaholic]

The worst part about these comments from Pfeffer is that the habs are losers no matter what. Even if they were right to fire him because he's a moron, then it means they hired a moron in the first place and are behind in advanced stats. And if Pfeffer is right it's even worse so let's not even think about that but either way.. it's not good for us.

They gave him a 1 year contract for that reason. It was a trial and they were obviously not impressed with him.

Not renewed, end of story! I'm a consultant, that's how it works

 

[Whitesnake]

And how can you not see my point, yet at the same time say the Habs should have gotten in front of announcing that they weren't renewing the contract of a 21yr old analytics guy who was hired on a 1yr deal, simply because PK Subban was traded 2 weeks prior.

Did the San Jose Sharks have to justify not bringing back Matt Pfeffer? Or what about the 67's??

Did they need to get out ahead of that news too??

Also, why are you bringing up Roy and selfishness? I have not called PK Subban selfish once, he is many things, selfish is not one.

And you think PK Subban made Habs fans think the team was more than average??

I guess you haven't spent much time on the Habs HF boards page the past 6 months have you??

WE keep talking about context lately and you bring up the Sharks.....no idea why ESPECIALLY based on the context of trading one of our most popular players ever.

I brought Roy based on the "bigger than the team" concept but now just realized that you are actually solely talking about in front of the camera bigger than the team...or something like that. Not even sure frankly. Not sure how his persona in front of the camera made him bigger than the team. Surely one of our most popular player for sure....somehow Price is right up there too. But now, the real problem was the less vanilla persona of PK that was the probelm....I mean I have no idea where you are going with this.

Nope. What I said was that while we all know how average the team is, at least we had PK's presence to move on and hope for a greater year. Without the "less vanilla" persona of them all, this team is now all business. With no real personnality to cheer for and it's now all about the team...well Price and the team. And if that doesn't work out, if you think there was a distraction WITH PK, watch how it is WITHOUT him.

 

[Whitesnake]

Because posters have their own opinions. As do you. And as do I. Bergevin doesn't run the organization to cater to you or I. Whether we agree with his moves or not. Whether you say it is sad that they didn't have the thought process to understand the backlash they'd get with firing the analytics guy after the trade. They don't care what the optics are to fans.

Fine. All good. I personnally don't give a damn if I or anybody else hurt Bergevin feelings or not. So at least we have that in common.

 

[417]

What's ridiculous is to focus on how a guy handles himself in front of a camera instead of on the ice. THAT is ridiculous. And to mix it all up with the "team concept" is simply insane. PK's success would reflect on the team. Just like Price's success would too. You are talking about how insane the importance that the fans give to PK and yet, YOU are giving his off-ice supposed issues so much importance that it was worth it to trade him because of it. Frankly, I'd rather we would have continued on the "bigger than the team" based on hockey rather than personnality 'cause that way....the trade is even worst. If only the trade would have been about hockey on the ice....

I'm giving his off-ice supposed issues so much importance?

How did I do this?

The funny part is I agree with you...i 100% agree that this perception of PK Subban is ridiculous, I've ALWAYS said this, I've always defended the way he's perceived to the point where I'm told I'm playing the "race card" when I do.

I'm NOT putting PK on trial here...i don't know how many times I have to explain this.

 

[417]

WE keep talking about context lately and you bring up the Sharks.....no idea why ESPECIALLY based on the context of trading one of our most popular players ever.

I brought Roy based on the "bigger than the team" concept but now just realized that you are actually solely talking about in front of the camera bigger than the team...or something like that. Not even sure frankly. Not sure how his persona in front of the camera made him bigger than the team. Surely one of our most popular player for sure....somehow Price is right up there too. But now, the real problem was the less vanilla persona of PK that was the probelm....I mean I have no idea where you are going with this.

Nope. What I said was that while we all know how average the team is, at least we had PK's presence to move on and hope for a greater year. Without the "less vanilla" persona of them all, this team is now all business. With no real personnality to cheer for and it's now all about the team...well Price and the team. And if that doesn't work out, if you think there was a distraction WITH PK, watch how it is WITHOUT him.

I wish the Montreal Canadiens were more comfortable with PK being who PK is...while I do think PK got bigger than the team, I also don't understand why that was seen as a negative thing on the contrary, it should of been nurtured and promoted.

You think my issue is with PK, it's not...my issue and I've always been consistent with this, is how PK is perceived.

There isn't a better combination of charisma and talent in the NHL IMO and for a player who isn't THE best player in the league, he gets quite a lot of exposure and I do think that bothers people in hockey circles, whether that's the media, fans, players, coaches, scouts, executives, etc...

I do not agree with the Subban for Weber trade, I never will...but I understand WHY it happened and why I think it happened is because there's a perception of him (which is actually true) that he is bigger than the team.