News Article: Matt Pfeffer (analytics guy) let go **Mod Warning Post 402** Read before posting

[waffledave]

but not every assist is equal. Sometimes a player gets an assit when they had very little to do with the play. A pass from PK to Max who then passes it to Galley who scored is not equal to PK shooting on net and the puck being tipped in. And I value goals more than assits but that is my personal bias.

But my original point is that with all the assits PK has he still didn't lead the PP to being even considered good. So maybe a change of personnel will change that. And yes you can call it spin or my opinion if you want. I am not trying to pass it off as fact. Just like a good handful or posters are "spinning" things to make this trade look negative.

I agree that not all assists are equal. But on the PP, assists are much more likely to be due to being actively involved in the play. Especially for a player at the point.

At the end of the day, if we remove PK's PP points and add Weber's, it's a wash. He has a better shot, but if the team employs the same system it did last year, with Weber shooting instead of PK, the PP will still be terrible.

The PP was way too predictable last season. Everyone knew it was going to Subban, no matter what. It made no sense at all. It got to the point where defenders wouldn't even bother covering passing lanes between forwards because they knew it was going back to the point again. They blocked pretty much every shot attempt he made. Just because Weber shoots it harder, it won't change a thing if they don't try something new. It might even be worse because Weber isn't as good a passer, and if they pressure him he might no be able to start the cycle again.

The problem was the system much more than the personnel. I just hope they figure out how to use Weber effectively because his main asset is his slapshot, and that'll be the last thing to go as he gets older.

 

[bouquet]

And to think if Eric Engels never leaked his name in his story this kid wouldn't have anything to worry about. I don't think many GM's are going to be looking at this story and thinking this is the guy I should hire. Not only does he allow internal workings to leak he backs them up by going to the press and then makes himself look foolish. Sometimes its better to keep your mouth shut and only let people think you are a fool then to open your mouth and prove them right.

Eric Engels is sure an assh..... By releasing that stuff , he knew very well the effect it could have on this young guy. We see a young guy who is like the majority of young guys, thinking he knows it all...And a journalist who is knowing the media perfectly, but to sell some more copies and spinning his own version that the trade was bad, chose to publish it. I know for a fact that this guy (Eric the demon) has a low level of morality.

 

[Hoople]

Pretty incredible how the front office gets away with a freebie on this one. They were being exposed like a bunch of dictators looking for "yes-man" types only on their team after letting this nerd go. Then he comes out and makes a fool of himself, pretty much single-handedly justifying why he was being fired by saying ridiculous stuff to THN.

Congratulations, kiddo. You're not getting another shot in this league. Pretty sure other stats gurus out there will make fools of themselves sooner than later too with this trade. It's come to a point where they're single-handedly how ridiculous these stats are.

Weber, an "average" NHLer. AND PEOPLE HERE BACK THIS UP

Andrew Berkshire snaps him up and hires him immediately. With those types of analytical skills, how could Berkshire not have this wunder kid phenom working for him.

Holy ****. This is funny.

 

[ECWHSWI]

but not every assist is equal. Sometimes a player gets an assit when they had very little to do with the play. A pass from PK to Max who then passes it to Galley who scored is not equal to PK shooting on net and the puck being tipped in. And I value goals more than assits but that is my personal bias.

But my original point is that with all the assits PK has he still didn't lead the PP to being even considered good. So maybe a change of personnel will change that. And yes you can call it spin or my opinion if you want. I am not trying to pass it off as fact. Just like a good handful or posters are "spinning" things to make this trade look negative.

really ? does one of the two count as two assists and maybe two goals for the team ?

 

[417]

Man...again, well played by Eric Engels.

He leaks a story about the Habs not renewing their analytics guy...then buried deep in the story is.

"A source told Sportsnet that Matt Pfeffer MIGHT have been let go because he was against trading Subban"

A carefully placed word but that changes the entire picture of this story.

 

[hersky77]

Did someone actually back that up? I must have missed it.

So evident that it's an outlier opinion.

Berkshire backed him up, but thats par for the course with him.

 

[Runner77]

Berkshire backed him up, but thats par for the course with him.

Thanks, hadn't paid attention. However, the poster said "people here" in his post.

 

[Cole Caulifield]

Who says ANYTHING about 15 to 20%? Are you even paying attention?

For Subban to score at a 15 goals clip last season, he would have needed 7%. That happens to be more in line with his career average.

Last time Subban shot for 3ish% was in his sophomore season, with the same exact 3.4%. The year after that he scored 11 goals in 42 games and won the Norris with a 8.7%.

In his sophomore season, I don't know if you remember, but Subban was criticized for his big telegraphed windup. People were saying he was too obvious with his shot. It was actually a big recurring story all year. And all of it was true. He then fixed that, and went back up the next year.

This year, he had other problems. Apparently he changed his stick before the new season, and later changed it again during the season to go back to his old stick. Not sure if it's true, but he was not his usual self and missing the net a lot on top of his poor shooting percentage earlier in the year. He tended to miss the net on those prime scoring opportunities too where he had all the time in the world and had received good passes. Of course, all of this is purely anecdotal, and you'd be well within reason to just dismiss it.

But one thing that stats lovers like to do is brush aside everything going away from the normal average as a statistical anomaly. But sometimes, there is an underlying reason behind that anomaly, and it isn't just bad luck that will automatically regress back to the mean on its own. Sometimes, it's an athlete who has had a few bad habits creep into his game, or an opponent who has adapted to the player in a manner that makes him shoot from stupid places because it's his only option left if he wants to shoot.

Ultimately, it could very well be that Subban will shoot at a higher % next year. But having huge fluctuations in your shooting % from year to year is indicative that he's not as regular as he could be. For a player like Weber, a down year is 15 goals, 6% shooting percentage. For Subban, it's 6 goals and 3%. No matter how you want to slice it... Weber is the better more proven shooter by a wide margin. It's one of the things that he has over Subban, will it remain true in a different team concept and as he gets older ? We will see..

 

[PsychoticHab]

I agree that not all assists are equal. But on the PP, assists are much more likely to be due to being actively involved in the play. Especially for a player at the point.

At the end of the day, if we remove PK's PP points and add Weber's, it's a wash. He has a better shot, but if the team employs the same system it did last year, with Weber shooting instead of PK, the PP will still be terrible.

The PP was way too predictable last season. Everyone knew it was going to Subban, no matter what. It made no sense at all. It got to the point where defenders wouldn't even bother covering passing lanes between forwards because they knew it was going back to the point again. They blocked pretty much every shot attempt he made. Just because Weber shoots it harder, it won't change a thing if they don't try something new. It might even be worse because Weber isn't as good a passer, and if they pressure him he might no be able to start the cycle again.

The problem was the system much more than the personnel. I just hope they figure out how to use Weber effectively because his main asset is his slapshot, and that'll be the last thing to go as he gets older.

Wouldn't this be the main reason why they brought back Kirk Muller?

As for making use of Weber's shot, Muller's first year with the Habs saw Sheldon Souray score 19 PP goals and get 29 PP assists. Let's face it, the opposition knew that if it went to Souray he would be shooting and they still for the most part were not able to stop him.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

In his sophomore season, I don't know if you remember, but Subban was criticized for his big telegraphed windup. People were saying he was too obvious with his shot. It was actually a big recurring story all year. And all of it was true. He then fixed that, and went back up the next year.

This year, he had other problems. Apparently he changed his stick before the new season, and later changed it again during the season to go back to his old stick. Not sure if it's true, but he was not his usual self and missing the net a lot on top of his poor shooting percentage earlier in the year. He tended to miss the net on those prime scoring opportunities too where he had all the time in the world and had received good passes. Of course, all of this is purely anecdotal, and you'd be well within reason to just dismiss it.

But one thing that stats lovers like to do is brush aside everything going away from the normal average as a statistical anomaly. But sometimes, there is an underlying reason behind that anomaly, and it isn't just bad luck that will automatically regress back to the mean on its own. Sometimes, it's an athlete who has had a few bad habits creep into his game, or an opponent who has adapted to the player in a manner that makes him shoot from stupid places because it's his only option left if he wants to shoot.

Ultimately, it could very well be that Subban will shoot at a higher % next year. But having huge fluctuations in your shooting % from year to year is indicative that he's not as regular as he could be. For a player like Weber, a down year is 15 goals, 6% shooting percentage. For Subban, it's 6 goals and 3%. No matter how you want to slice it... Weber is the better more proven shooter by a wide margin. It's one of the things that he has over Subban, will it remain true in a different team concept and as he gets older ? We will see..

Great post!!!!! Understanding cause and effect is something that completely eludes advanced stat nerds who don't actually understand the game. Advanced stats are only useful in the hands of people who truly understand the game from watching/playing it. At best they only provide things for an expert to watch for but do not say anything on their own.

If you find yourself completely changing your opinion on a player due to these stats then there is a very good chance that you didn't understand what you were seeing in the first place.....

 

[417]

Wouldn't this be the main reason why they brought back Kirk Muller?

As for making use of Weber's shot, Muller's first year with the Habs saw Sheldon Souray score 19 PP goals and get 29 PP assists. Let's face it, the opposition knew that if it went to Souray he would be shooting and they still for the most part were not able to stop him.

That's it's because they had a choice to make...cover Souray or Kovalev

Cause Markov could find either or...

 

[PsychoticHab]

That's it's because they had a choice to make...cover Souray or Kovalev

Cause Markov could find either or...

At that point, if a similar system is used, couldn't Chucky or Patch (or even Radulov) fill the plant and shoot role that Kovalev had at the time? As for Markov, he may have lost a step but finding open teammates shouldn't be a problem.

 

[Runner77]

At that point, if a similar system is used, couldn't Chucky or Patch (or even Radulov) fill the plant and shoot role that Kovalev had at the time? As for Markov, he may have lost a step but finding open teammates shouldn't be a problem.

In Habsland, an older D never loses a step and a player's prime extends to the length of contract that player happens to have with the Habs.

If that player is traded, you can bet he lost a step just on account of no longer sporting the right sweater.

 

[Cole Caulifield]

That's it's because they had a choice to make...cover Souray or Kovalev

Cause Markov could find either or...

And we don't have any forwards with Kovalev's talent level on the PP... unless Galchenyuk.... or Radulov ... but I doubt either have Kovalev's ability to dance in from the boards to the middle and take a shot from the open gap between the opposing D and forward. Kovalev was particularly adept at taking advantage of this at the right time. He had the stickhandling, and deceptiveness to creep in slowly and find that open space and get a really high quality shot (snap, slap or wrist).

 

[DangerDave]

In Habsland, an older D never loses a step and a player's prime extends to the length of contract that player happens to have with the Habs.

If that player is traded, you can bet he lost a step just on account of no longer sporting the right sweater.

Subban is the exception. He's gotten better.

 

[scrubadam]

I agree that not all assists are equal. But on the PP, assists are much more likely to be due to being actively involved in the play. Especially for a player at the point.

At the end of the day, if we remove PK's PP points and add Weber's, it's a wash. He has a better shot, but if the team employs the same system it did last year, with Weber shooting instead of PK, the PP will still be terrible.

The PP was way too predictable last season. Everyone knew it was going to Subban, no matter what. It made no sense at all. It got to the point where defenders wouldn't even bother covering passing lanes between forwards because they knew it was going back to the point again. They blocked pretty much every shot attempt he made. Just because Weber shoots it harder, it won't change a thing if they don't try something new. It might even be worse because Weber isn't as good a passer, and if they pressure him he might no be able to start the cycle again.

The problem was the system much more than the personnel. I just hope they figure out how to use Weber effectively because his main asset is his slapshot, and that'll be the last thing to go as he gets older.

I agree with what you are saying, and also agree the PP was too predictable, but I also think its because defenders did not fear PK's shot last year like they did in the past. Its easy to isolate the PP when you know its going to PK and his shot is not scary. This is where I think Weber can make a difference. If he can continue with what he did last year defenders will be scared of his shot on the point and that will change the PP dynamics. Thats why I feel a scorer is more feared then a "generator" on the PP. To make an extreme example everyone knows DD is not going to shoot on the PP so they will leave him in the clear so his assits (if he had any which we know he didnt) are not as valuable if he was a 20G scorer on the PP.

But we have to wait and see, the PP can very well be just as ineffective next year as it was this year.

 

[Runner77]

Subban is the exception. He's gotten better.

You wouldn't know it, based on so many contrarian posts here.

 

[scrubadam]

Wouldn't this be the main reason why they brought back Kirk Muller?

As for making use of Weber's shot, Muller's first year with the Habs saw Sheldon Souray score 19 PP goals and get 29 PP assists. Let's face it, the opposition knew that if it went to Souray he would be shooting and they still for the most part were not able to stop him.

I think Muller can help, but I have also argued as HC Muller didn't have a great PP%. In the end I think the PP is more on the player execution since there are only a limited number of stratgies. Tell a player to go to spot X on the ice, well its up to the player to go there.

As far as Souray even though everyone knew it, they couldn't stop it because his shot was that good, and feared. I don't think anyone feared PK's shot last year, and his shot was not good. So if the PK has no concern that Subban will get a good hard shot through they don't have to worry about him shooting. That messes up the whole PP since a lot of a PP is all about the point shot, either getting through or opening up other lanes.

 

[Sterling Archer]

In what world is a 20 goal, 50 point, 6'4" 240lb team canada starting defenceman ever considered "average?"

Maybe his 21 years of life on this planet are enough experience to make these calls. Any wonder now why this kid didn't have his contract renewed?

 

[417]

At that point, if a similar system is used, couldn't Chucky or Patch (or even Radulov) fill the plant and shoot role that Kovalev had at the time? As for Markov, he may have lost a step but finding open teammates shouldn't be a problem.

Yes but there's no Souray (Weber is a right handed shot)

 

[417]

And we don't have any forwards with Kovalev's talent level on the PP... unless Galchenyuk.... or Radulov ... but I doubt either have Kovalev's ability to dance in from the boards to the middle and take a shot from the open gap between the opposing D and forward. Kovalev was particularly adept at taking advantage of this at the right time. He had the stickhandling, and deceptiveness to creep in slowly and find that open space and get a really high quality shot (snap, slap or wrist).

I agree...but I think Radulov has that in his game.

Galchenyuk still needs to work on his release when it's not a one timer but he has the talent to do it

 

[Whitesnake]

Man...again, well played by Eric Engels.

He leaks a story about the Habs not renewing their analytics guy...then buried deep in the story is.

"A source told Sportsnet that Matt Pfeffer MIGHT have been let go because he was against trading Subban"

A carefully placed word but that changes the entire picture of this story.

Unfortunately, in a world of "we can't tell you anything", perception because reality, especially as far as fans are concerned. And letting go a guy who told you that based on his analytics, that trading PK for Weber would be a bad mistake, and what...1 or 2 weeks after the guy is not renewed....it's 3 things. Either it was directly related. Either it was not related but still a stupid judgment call to let people learn about it the way they did right after the trade or....they just don't care about what people think or say and we shouldn't care to let them have it either way.

Just wondering....does this management know where this team is located and the fact that this is what the Habs fans are all about? That we have nothing else sportswise in this city, except a secondary football league we are not even great anymore and even when we were, we should have won more than we actually did based on the mediocrity and small number of teams in this league....and the MLS, another league, yeah major in NA, yet where we also struggle. Add all this with the fact that EVEN if we would succeed everywhere else, hockey is still and will always be our #1 priority....again, I ask the question...are they really aware what this Habs team is all about? And if they do, well they then don't care about anything. Run the team, whatever happens happen. Let just hope we don't alienate too many people so that we lose money. If so, I have no idea why we should be soooooo patient with them....be so gentle so that we don't hurt their little feelings.....

In every freakin sphere of work, we are told to be proactive. Yet, they keep being amateurishly reactive on almost everything. And then the fans are being bashed.

 

[Runner77]

... hockey is still and will always be our #1 priority....again, I ask the question...are they really aware what this Habs team is all about? And if they do, well they then don't care about anything. Run the team, whatever happens happen. Let just hope we don't alienate too many people so that we lose money. If so, I have no idea why we should be soooooo patient with them....be so gentle so that we don't hurt their little feelings.....

In every freakin sphere of work, we are told to be proactive. Yet, they keep being amateurishly reactive on almost everything. And then the fans are being bashed.

What a sad state of affairs. Sounds like those autocratic ownership groups that used to rule pro sports in the 60s and 70s, without rendering account.

The current lot is cut from the same cloth. Bergevin has not won his first big trade and has shown to be more of housekeeper, with the occasional good move. He's no Jim Nill. And his unwavering support of MB and all the other underperformers in the AHL and Brampton, all of whom can do no wrong, gives the impression of a country club.

When we sum it up, there is nothing that can be done other than expand one's horizons and appreciate how hockey management is conducted elsewhere. No one is forcing a fan to be a party to what this management group has done. If this is the path they want to take, and it's a major one when the face of the club after Price gets moved, then it's on them. If hoardes of fans don't see it that way, then more power to them. You can always fool some of the people some of the time. Proven concept. Just that "some" in the Habs' case is a much larger contingent.

 

[417]

Unfortunately, in a world of "we can't tell you anything", perception because reality, especially as far as fans are concerned. And letting go a guy who told you that based on his analytics, that trading PK for Weber would be a bad mistake, and what...1 or 2 weeks after the guy is not renewed....it's 3 things. Either it was directly related. Either it was not related but still a stupid judgment call to let people learn about it the way they did right after the trade or....they just don't care about what people think or say and we shouldn't care to let them have it either way.

Just wondering....does this management know where this team is located and the fact that this is what the Habs fans are all about? That we have nothing else sportswise in this city, except a secondary football league we are not even great anymore and even when we were, we should have won more than we actually did based on the mediocrity and small number of teams in this league....and the MLS, another league, yeah major in NA, yet where we also struggle. Add all this with the fact that EVEN if we would succeed everywhere else, hockey is still and will always be our #1 priority....again, I ask the question...are they really aware what this Habs team is all about? And if they do, well they then don't care about anything. Run the team, whatever happens happen. Let just hope we don't alienate too many people so that we lose money. If so, I have no idea why we should be soooooo patient with them....be so gentle so that we don't hurt their little feelings.....

In every freakin sphere of work, we are told to be proactive. Yet, they keep being amateurishly reactive on almost everything. And then the fans are being bashed.

But Whitesnake...do you think the Habs not renewing the contract of their analytics guy, who was signed to a 1yr deal, would of even have registered on anyone's radar had the Subban for Weber trade not gone down?

It became a story, because everything associated with the name PK Subban, whether directly or indirectly, gets blown up to ridiculous levels.

I find it embarrassing that the Habs had to issue a statement essentially defending themselves for this.

 

[PsychoticHab]

Yes but there's no Souray (Weber is a right handed shot)

Which arguably could be better in the sense that Markov can stay on his strong side too.