News Article: Matt Pfeffer (analytics guy) let go **Mod Warning Post 402** Read before posting

[Jaynki]

Wow.

The guy said Weber was an average defenseman??

No wonder he got fired lol.

Advanced stats totally blown out of proportion.

 

[scrubadam]

If DD is still used on PP after what Galchenyuk showed last year plus other options available -- you'll know it's because one of the better players is in a slump. Under this regime, the best way to deal with a slump, is to replace the temporarily underperforming player by a black hole of a player who belongs in the AHL, because Therrien will never bail on a favorite, no matter what.

except those 3 times in the past 2 years that MT did bail on DD and removed him from the 1st line and from Max.

I won't discount the fact that MT will jumble his lines and DD may find himself next to Max at some point next year, but I think the days of DD being the go to guy are done. MT could have put DD back on the 1st line when he came back from injury, playoffs were out of the question but he didn't he kept him on the 3rd.

DD most likely starts on the 3rd and barring injuries or a horrible slump I don't see DD getting an extended look on the 1st. If we can only dream DD gets beat out by Hudon or McCarron at camp and finds himself off the team by December.

 

[LaP]

And Weber may have DD screening the goalie (but I doubt that because I truely believe that MT has finally realized DD is not a good option on the PP) but he will also have the General feeding him the puck. Markov has made many a D very rich.

He did when he had other options than just his d partner and also a better shot.

The key of the PP is to have both AG and Patch on it. Then Markov has many options.

Markov has not been a scoring threat for a while. He's much more predictable than he used to be. If he has many options (Patch, AG/Radulov and Weber) then it'll work. If his options remain only Patch and Weber with Gallagher and DD running around trying to screen the goalie and retrieve pucks along the board then i'm not sure it'll be very effective.

I hiope you're right and MT finally saw the light. Personally i'll believe when i see it for more than 20 games.

 

[Runner77]

DD most likely starts on the 3rd and barring injuries or a horrible slump I don't see DD getting an extended look on the 1st. If we can only dream DD gets beat out by Hudon or McCarron at camp and finds himself off the team by December.

Don't forget how often DD has risen from unfavorable predictions many times, same story every year, "Therrien has learned his lesson" has come up far more than I can remember in past years and as we've seen, it has always been an unfounded opinion.

Agreed with you, I'm hoping one the kids gets a shot and ousts DD. But since Bergevin can't deal DD and based on MT's continued imprint and influence, you can almost bet that DD is back with the team and more than likely enjoying a favorable treatment, just as it's always been.

 

[DangerDave]

Who says ANYTHING about 15 to 20%? Are you even paying attention?

For Subban to score at a 15 goals clip last season, he would have needed 7%. That happens to be more in line with his career average.

Last time Subban shot for 3ish% was in his sophomore season, with the same exact 3.4%. The year after that he scored 11 goals in 42 games and won the Norris with a 8.7%.

If PK was actually shooting for 20% like you to seem to infer would be a "good" shooting percentage, he'd be challenging for the friggin' Maurice Richard trophy. No one ever suggested that. So I conclude you might indeed want to look into the numbers a bit more in depth to better understand the situation.

Again, you pretend Subban will top out as a 10 goals scorer. You go and bet your house on it.

Don't want to go into the shooting percentage debate but something was way off with his shot last year. His timing was off, power was down and he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. Some sort of injury to his shoulder maybe?

 

[windycity]

Wow.

The guy said Weber was an average defenseman??

No wonder he got fired lol.

Advanced stats totally blown out of proportion.

Well, context is everything. He might have said, looking at the numbers alone, he's average and was misquoted/quoted out of context. Maybe not, who knows

 

[scrubadam]

He did when he had other options than just his d partner and also a better shot.

The key of the PP is to have both AG and Patch on it. Then Markov has many options.

Markov has not been a scoring threat for a while. He's much more predictable than he used to be. If he has many options (Patch, AG/Radulov and Weber) then it'll work. If his options remain only Patch and Weber with Gallagher and DD running around trying to screen the goalie and retrieve pucks along the board then i'm not sure it'll be very effective.

I hiope you're right and MT finally saw the light. Personally i'll believe when i see it for more than 20 games.

Yes AG and Patch are keys to the PP. Hopefully AG still has his shot from the end of the year and not the one from the beginning where his specialty was missing the net. One thing about AG is he admitted that his shot wasn't good and he admitted he spent a lot of time working on it.

I don't think Markov will score much, but I also think that PK's dynacisim was maybe effecting his ability to play the PP. PK's scoring chart shows he was all over the ice on the PP. I don't think that meshed well with Markov. Webers shows he is more traditional with scoring from the point. Thats Markovs bread and butter. Also maybe with Weber back there he will begin to feel more comfortable going back to his back door play?

As far as MT goes I am not going to bet the farm that DD wont get some PP or reps with Max because MT puts his lines in the blender, but I think much like last year DD will have the fewest minutes out of our 3 centers and will spend more time away from Max and wave 1 then on it.

 

[Whitesnake]

Well, context is everything. He might have said, looking at the numbers alone, he's average and was misquoted/quoted out of context. Maybe not, who knows

I think it's pretty clear. The kid, this 21 years old, his expertise is analytics. He was brought in to give the team THIS part of the equation. Only this one. In all the article, he only talks about analytics. And the last part of it, it gives an analytical stat saying how Weber compared to PK, does not change the outcome of a game that much. Making him "average". I doubt he is giving his overall take on the guy as this is not what is asked of him. We have 30 other guys for that. So based on his expertise, Weber has average analytical, hence he's average. Now, if he's the type of guy who's solely thinks that analytics is 100% what the game is all about, he's dumb, and it's not true. If he just gave his opinion of his side of the fence, can't anybody provide analytics that says the opposite to Weber saying he's average? If Pfeiffer even unable to read analytics? If so, then he is also wrong. If not...he's right....for his take and his take only.

Then, it's up to the management to analyse what percentage of the decision analytics should count for and they are the ones that have to determine how good a player is.

 

[scrubadam]

Don't forget how often DD has risen from unfavorable predictions many times, same story every year, "Therrien has learned his lesson" has come up far more than I can remember in past years and as we've seen, it has always been an unfounded opinion.

Agreed with you, I'm hoping one the kids gets a shot and ousts DD. But since Bergevin can't deal DD and based on MT's continued imprint and influence, you can almost bet that DD is back with the team and more than likely enjoying a favorable treatment, just as it's always been.

DD will at some point play with Max and be on wave 1. But also Byron and Mitchell will probably get there too. MT puts his line combos in the blender we all have seen him move players from line 4 to line 1 on a whim. I just think that at the end of the season DD like this past season will have the fewest time amongst our 3 top centers. But yes MT will at some point put DD with Max it will happen just hopefully it will be short and painless.

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

Pretty incredible how the front office gets away with a freebie on this one. They were being exposed like a bunch of dictators looking for "yes-man" types only on their team after letting this nerd go. Then he comes out and makes a fool of himself, pretty much single-handedly justifying why he was being fired by saying ridiculous stuff to THN.

Congratulations, kiddo. You're not getting another shot in this league. Pretty sure other stats gurus out there will make fools of themselves sooner than later too with this trade. It's come to a point where they're single-handedly how ridiculous these stats are.

Weber, an "average" NHLer. AND PEOPLE HERE BACK THIS UP

 

[scrubadam]

Don't want to go into the shooting percentage debate but something was way off with his shot last year. His timing was off, power was down and he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. Some sort of injury to his shoulder maybe?

Good to find someone else who actually saw what I have been talking about.

I don't think it was an injury but maybe it was the shape he was in? Too much bulk maybe it affected his shot. You can't take decision making out of the equation. Players are humans and if things aren't going well maybe he was gripping the stick to hard. Not letting his mind process the game because he is to worried about not scoring so he is rushing or making bad decisions?

 

[Runner77]

DD will at some point play with Max and be on wave 1. But also Byron and Mitchell will probably get there too. MT puts his line combos in the blender we all have seen him move players from line 4 to line 1 on a whim. I just think that at the end of the season DD like this past season will have the fewest time amongst our 3 top centers. But yes MT will at some point put DD with Max it will happen just hopefully it will be short and painless.

That's just the thing. DD has no business playing with Max or on a top line. The fact that MT may use other bottom players in roles they are not suited for or talented enough to handle, doesn't make DD's usage any more justifiable.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

But he specifically said in his quote that he didn't care about shot differential and corsi when it comes to an experienced guy like Weber. He just looks at goal differential. I don't know about you but this doesn't sound like pro analytics to me. I bet he doesn't sound professional to any of the other owners either. Add to that that he's bashing a team and calling a perennial Norris candidate "average" leads me to believe he won't last in the NHL.

I think he's looking at the scoring effects these players have with their teammates. How much do their teammates improve when Weber's on the ice vs other blueliners. And the verdict is... not much. And you'd expect it to be a lot better because that's how it is with other elite blueliners.

And yes, MT is awful but maybe weber fits better in the system. We don't know yet.

But we know that the system sucks...

Don't really want to get into the weber vs Subban thing as its been discussed to death already.

Fair enough.

 

[Runner77]

Weber, an "average" NHLer. AND PEOPLE HERE BACK THIS UP

Did someone actually back that up? I must have missed it.

So evident that it's an outlier opinion.

 

[scrubadam]

Pretty incredible how the front office gets away with a freebie on this one. They were being exposed like a bunch of dictators looking for "yes-man" types only on their team after letting this nerd go. Then he comes out and makes a fool of himself, pretty much single-handedly justifying why he was being fired by saying ridiculous stuff to THN.

Congratulations, kiddo. You're not getting another shot in this league. Pretty sure other stats gurus out there will make fools of themselves sooner than later too with this trade. It's come to a point where they're single-handedly how ridiculous these stats are.

Weber, an "average" NHLer. AND PEOPLE HERE BACK THIS UP

And to think if Eric Engels never leaked his name in his story this kid wouldn't have anything to worry about. I don't think many GM's are going to be looking at this story and thinking this is the guy I should hire. Not only does he allow internal workings to leak he backs them up by going to the press and then makes himself look foolish. Sometimes its better to keep your mouth shut and only let people think you are a fool then to open your mouth and prove them right.

 

[LaP]

Yes AG and Patch are keys to the PP. Hopefully AG still has his shot from the end of the year and not the one from the beginning where his specialty was missing the net. One thing about AG is he admitted that his shot wasn't good and he admitted he spent a lot of time working on it.

I don't think Markov will score much, but I also think that PK's dynacisim was maybe effecting his ability to play the PP. PK's scoring chart shows he was all over the ice on the PP. I don't think that meshed well with Markov. Webers shows he is more traditional with scoring from the point. Thats Markovs bread and butter. Also maybe with Weber back there he will begin to feel more comfortable going back to his back door play?

As far as MT goes I am not going to bet the farm that DD wont get some PP or reps with Max because MT puts his lines in the blender, but I think much like last year DD will have the fewest minutes out of our 3 centers and will spend more time away from Max and wave 1 then on it.

Honestly i think Markov best weapon on PP is his pass across the defensive box to the RW for a one timer. He's very good at that one of the best in the history of the franchise imo. He had his best years with Kovalev playing this role. AG was doing that at the end of the season and it was working very well.

If AG can do that for a whole season then the defensive box will have to cheat to protect that passing lane to AG. They did not have to do that with Plekanec or DD. It will give lot of space for Weber at the point.

That's the beauty of having multiple options on the PP. Defensive box must cover multiple passing lane and cheat. hard to do when you are down one man.

The only problem with this strategy if it works is AG will score between 35 and 40 goals and it will cost a lot next summer.

 

[scrubadam]

That's just the thing. DD has no business playing with Max or on a top line. The fact that MT may use other bottom players in roles they are not suited for or talented enough to handle, doesn't make DD's usage any more justifiable.

All coaches do this though. Every coach will move a 4th liner to the 1st for Energy or a spark. Its not new its been part of the game forever.

That still doesn't justify DD's usage over the past 2 years and I agree he shouldn't be on the team, but moving lower players up a line or 2 is a common tactic, just it shouldn't be a permanent tactic like MT does with DD sometimes.

But lets not get to sidetracked I am moving the discussion off topic a bit.

 

[scrubadam]

Honestly i think Markov best weapon on PP is his pass across the defensive box to the RW for a one timer. He's very good at that one of the best in the history of the franchise imo. He had his best years with Kovalev playing this role. AG was doing that at the end of the season and it was working very well.

If AG can do that for a whole season then the defensive box will have to cheat to protect that passing lane to AG. They did not have to do that with Plekanec or DD. It will give lot of space for Weber at the point.

That's the beauty of having 2 options on the PP. Defensive box must cover 2 passing lane and cheat. hard to do when you are down one man.

The only problem with this strategy if it works is AG will score between 35 and 40 goals and it will cost a lot next summer.

Then we sign him to a 10 million dollar contract and trade him for Kopitar a year later. Then we can have a dozen threads about how we gave up a young player for an older player with cups and leadership and around and around we go...

 

[ECWHSWI]

Then we sign him to a 10 million dollar contract and trade him for Kopitar a year later. Then we can have a dozen threads about how we gave up a young player for an older player with cups and leadership and around and around we go...

that would be a huge change from the Subban/Weber threads.

 

[DangerDave]

Good to find someone else who actually saw what I have been talking about.

I don't think it was an injury but maybe it was the shape he was in? Too much bulk maybe it affected his shot. You can't take decision making out of the equation. Players are humans and if things aren't going well maybe he was gripping the stick to hard. Not letting his mind process the game because he is to worried about not scoring so he is rushing or making bad decisions?

He was shooting from the center of the blue line, puck was often way too high (gotta keep it low when shooting from there), shooting with no traffic in front or right into the defender's shin pads. I could go on and on but at the end of the day, he just wasn't a threat from the point last year. Sometimes I'd find myself wishing petry was on the PP instead of him. He needs to shoot from where stammer and ovi shoot to be successful because he just doesn't have the blast guys like Weber have.

 

[vfactor]

Or... hockey people need to start re-evaluating the way they look at players the way baseball has.

Long ago there was a revolution in that sport and now you don't see walks being undervalued anymore. Now you see on base percentage as being more important than batting average...

There's still a very old school mentality in the NHL right now. Some people think fighting skills are a big plus... it's not. Shea Weber is held in high regard because he does the basics very well and he's big and can hit. He's sound positionally, can clear the net, can hammer people. All good things and he doesn't take high risks so you won't see him on highlight reels losing the puck... but there's a cost that comes with that. He doesn't have the puck nearly as often as the truly elite defensemen do. He isn't nearly as dynamic as those guys are.

In a 2 on 1 situation... he'll play it well. He does the basics. But he doesn't carry the puck or get it out nearly to the extent that a guy like Subban does. Old school guys don't recognize how important this is though. It's an undervalued skill in the same way walks were in baseball. When PK Subban skates the puck out of his own zone, old school guys see that as him being on offense, which it is - but they don't see the DEFENSIVE value of being able to do this. They don't get that spending more time in the offensive zone (something PK Subban was number one in the league in last year) means less time defending.

The idea that Subban is not as good defensively as Weber is wildly false. But people don't get this because they only look at instances of losing the puck or misplaying a 2 on 1 when judging a blueliner.

Weber being an average player is not really a crazy position if you're ONLY talking 5 on 5. He does some things really well and others not so much... Where he really makes his money though is on the PP. That crazy shot is insane. So yeah, it'll be awesome to have him on the point.

My guess is that when Pfeffer refers to Weber as an average player, he's saying so only in terms of 5 on 5 play. Because when you factor in PP production it's a different story.

This is basically what I call a great 'vanilla' product in Webber. I was never impressed by Webber more than that even during his peak with Sutter.

Thing is, Habs is already as vanilla as it is. You traded away the only positive offensive skill to make it even more predictable just to have the feeling of having a safer defensive.

Therrien, Marc are terrible hockey mind

 

[1909]

Honestly i think Markov best weapon on PP is his pass across the defensive box to the RW for a one timer. He's very good at that one of the best in the history of the franchise imo. He had his best years with Kovalev playing this role. AG was doing that at the end of the season and it was working very well.

If AG can do that for a whole season then the defensive box will have to cheat to protect that passing lane to AG. They did not have to do that with Plekanec or DD. It will give lot of space for Weber at the point.

That's the beauty of having multiple options on the PP. Defensive box must cover multiple passing lane and cheat. hard to do when you are down one man.

The only problem with this strategy if it works is AG will score between 35 and 40 goals and it will cost a lot next summer.

The problem is that Weber loves to score his goal from that same position that Markov loves too....

Markov always hated to switch sides with P.K. on PP.

 

[DangerDave]

I think he's looking at the scoring effects these players have with their teammates. How much do their teammates improve when Weber's on the ice vs other blueliners. And the verdict is... not much. And you'd expect it to be a lot better because that's how it is with other elite blueliners.

But we know that the system sucks...

Fair enough.

Not sure that Weber was ever the guy to make his teammates look better though. He just sort of blasts the puck on net in the ozone and clears the net of defense.

I was reading an interesting article that I can't remember the name of a few days ago that showed that while Weber's corsi was not great, he led the NHL in quality scoring chances against. While other teams were getting chances while he was on the ice, most were not from prime scoring areas. And remember who's in net. Ill try and find that article.

Edit here it is
http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-measuring-d-by-quality-of-shots-against-1.391447

 

[waffledave]

Yes but I did qualify that by saying PK is great at generating goals, but we need someone who can score them on the PP. At the end of the day all those assits didn't lead to the TEAM having a great PP. So maybe a scorer will lead to the TEAM having a better PP.

Will losing that generator and gaining a scorer be a net positive, net negative or net value that remains to be seen.

I really don't understand your logic. It just sounds like some non-quantifiable silliness to again spin the trade as a positive. An assist results in a goal, every time.

 

[scrubadam]

I really don't understand your logic. It just sounds like some non-quantifiable silliness to again spin the trade as a positive. An assist results in a goal, every time.

but not every assist is equal. Sometimes a player gets an assit when they had very little to do with the play. A pass from PK to Max who then passes it to Galley who scored is not equal to PK shooting on net and the puck being tipped in. And I value goals more than assits but that is my personal bias.

But my original point is that with all the assits PK has he still didn't lead the PP to being even considered good. So maybe a change of personnel will change that. And yes you can call it spin or my opinion if you want. I am not trying to pass it off as fact. Just like a good handful or posters are "spinning" things to make this trade look negative.