Player Discussion Matt Grzelcyk

[BigBadBruins7708]

If the defence stays healthy gryz will have a monster playoffs.

I'd settle for Gryz having just 1 good playoff before he's done

 

[Gonzothe7thDman]

Of course the disparity would regress in the regular season, he wouldn't encounter teams able to attack him all the time and the regular season isn't about exploiting matchups the way the playoffs are. He's an excellent player, most of the time. In the scenarios where he's not, now you can move Orlov up. They addressed their biggest need.

Ya, this is what I mean. it doesnt matter about "exploiting matchups." If he were getting exposed, his underlying numbers would show that. They dont.

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I don't mean to say this in a pejorative way but when you say what you said above, it shows that you don't understand how this stuff works. Your argument, which I dont think you want to make, is that Gryz alone defies regression. The third column is PDO, which regresses to 1. Another indicator that most of this was out of his control.

Its certainly possible for a player's game to translate poorly in a matchup. I agree that happens. What I'm saying, though, is if that were happening and Gryz were exposed, it would be f***ing impossible for him to have a 57% xG. Impossible. So hey you can make the argument that his performance is such that his exposure allows him to get well above average underlying and well below average actuals but that would be a 1 in 1,000,000,000 chance.

Interested to see this conversation continue in a place where it won't get deleted for being off topic.

 

[loosemoose]

I'd settle for Gryz having just 1 good playoff before he's done

2018/19.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

2018/19.

8 points in 20 games with a -3 and 10 giveaways to 4 takeaways is a loose definition of good

 

[NDiesel]

Interested to see this conversation continue in a place where it won't get deleted for being off topic.

Id love for someone with the desire to watch through all our recent playoff goals against to make an actual argument with video evidence why they think he gets exposed. I looked through the Carolina series goals a while back and found maybe 1 or 2 goals where I would say Gryz was 'exposed', but even then the goals were somewhat weak as well and unrelated to him being outmatched in front of the net. Didn't really see him being exposed on the forecheck though.

Then 2 of the minuses were empty net and another was an awful Carlo turnover. These are all I can remember from the top of my head

 

[BostonBruins11]

If the Bruins plan on signing Orlov does this make Grzelcyk expandable?
Grzelcyk's value is probably the highest it will ever be atm.


Could we fetch a decent center with Grzecyk - Lysell - Propsect/pick + Reilly (cap reasons)

 

[danpantz]

If the Bruins plan on signing Orlov does this make Grzelcyk expandable?
Grzelcyk's value is probably the highest it will ever be atm.


Could we fetch a decent center with Grzecyk - Lysell - Propsect/pick + Reilly (cap reasons)

I think either him or Carlo have a chance of being moved this offseason even if they don’t resign Orlov based on what they resign Pasta for.

 

[BostonBruins11]

I think either him or Carlo have a chance of being moved this offseason even if they don’t resign Orlov based on what they resign Pasta for.

Trading Grzelcyk + Reilly gives us 6.69m cap space.
If they can sign Orlov for 5-5.5 that would free up 1M+ in cap space.
Trade Zboril and that frees up 2M+ to sign Frederic.
This leaves 22M+ to sign Pastrnak + Bergeron/Krejci or future center?

 

[Smitty93]

Interested to see this conversation continue in a place where it won't get deleted for being off topic.

The thing is that all of these conversations go the same way:

Poster #1: Grz sucks in the playoffs

Poster #2: Well, the stats show that he significantly underperforms his expected numbers, which suggests that he's unlucky and we'd expect GF% to regress to xGF% over time in a larger sample size

Poster #1: But he's bad every year because the style of play in the playoffs allows teams to take advantage of his size so his results will be bad no matter what your advanced stats say

Poster #2: We don't really have evidence to support that's the reason and the stats suggest he's an outlier, which seems unlikely to continue

Mod: Cut it out everyone, this isn't the place for this discussion

I'm positive the same thing would happen even in this thread.

"My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge"


EDIT: This is a bit harsh and probably mislabels the start, which is more like:

Poster #1: Bench Grz in the playoffs.

Poster #2: No, they shouldn't do that. He's statistically one of their better defensemen.

 

[danpantz]

Trading Grzelcyk + Reilly gives us 6.69m cap space.
If they can sign Orlov for 5-5.5 that would free up 1M+ in cap space.
Trade Zboril and that frees up 2M+ to sign Frederic.
This leaves 22M+ to sign Pastrnak + Bergeron/Krejci or future center?

Gotta pay swayman, and clifton. Then fill out the forward lines. Bergeron, krejci, freddy, foligno, nosek and Hathaway all are on expiring contracts.

 

[wintersej]

The idea that the smallest d-man in the league can’t be the guy that is a statistical outlier with GF vs xGF shows as much close mindedness as folks who dismiss xGF stats as witchcraft. Gryz already is an outlier! An outlier causing other outliers is just the nature of reality.

Heck I don’t even think anyone is trying to argue “Gryz small. Small in playoff bad.” as an absolute. Just that some teams can wear him down into making some Jake Gardiner kind of plays.

The problem now is that no one is gonna make a nice YouTube clip of every goal allowed by Gryz in the playoffs and breakdown what was bad luck, what wasn’t his fault, and what was his fault, and what was his fault because of his size…so everyone is just coming in and confirming their bias, including folks who think that using numbers puts them above bias.

Edit: I say all this as someone who very much puts himself in the pro-Gryz crowd

 

[BostonBruins11]

Gotta pay swayman, and clifton. Then fill out the forward lines. Bergeron, krejci, freddy, foligno, nosek and Hathaway all are on expiring contracts.

Foligno qualifies for 35+ contract next year, plus i'm sure he'll take a small discount. I'm confident Sweeney can make this work

 

[dafoomie]

Interested to see this conversation continue in a place where it won't get deleted for being off topic.

There's nowhere to go with it, we're back to Matt Grzelcyk being the one perfect player. Grzelcyk is the way, the truth, and the light.

 

[Gonzothe7thDman]

There's nowhere to go with it, we're back to Matt Grzelcyk being the one perfect player. Grzelcyk is the way, the truth, and the light.

Nvm guess I'm not interested to see where it goes if you are gonna go this cop out route where you purposely misconstrue and exaggerate the opposing viewpoint.

Childish stuff.

 

[neverwatchthegames]

There is nothing magical about the playoffs. Matt is 1/2 of a d pair that is top 5 in the league. He gets the tough matchups every single game that he plays with McAvoy. Literally the only difference between the playoffs and the regular season is the overtime rules and the fact that if you don't win 4 out of every 7 games your out. Coaches don't have secret weapons that they pull out to "expose" players in the playoffs. This sort of magical thinking gives media guys like Mike Millbury platitudes to fill time with and avoid the brain hurt they get from the bare minimum of critical thinking. The best players in the regular season are the best players in the playoffs, and Gryz has proven himself to be our third best D all year.

 

[dafoomie]

Nvm guess I'm not interested to see where it goes if you are gonna go this cop out route where you purposely misconstrue and exaggerate the opposing viewpoint.

Childish stuff.

Please, as if that hadn't already been the state of play. I'll respond in kind.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

There's nowhere to go with it, we're back to Matt Grzelcyk being the one perfect player. Grzelcyk is the way, the truth, and the light.

This is crap

 

[Gonzothe7thDman]

Please, as if that hadn't already been the state of play. I'll respond in kind.

I always held you in a higher tier of poster who I wouldn't have thought needed to rely on this type of disingenuous crutch.

That's too bad.

 

[EverettMike]

There is nothing magical about the playoffs. Matt is 1/2 of a d pair that is top 5 in the league. He gets the tough matchups every single game that he plays with McAvoy. Literally the only difference between the playoffs and the regular season is the overtime rules and the fact that if you don't win 4 out of every 7 games your out. Coaches don't have secret weapons that they pull out to "expose" players in the playoffs. This sort of magical thinking gives media guys like Mike Millbury platitudes to fill time with and avoid the brain hurt they get from the bare minimum of critical thinking. The best players in the regular season are the best players in the playoffs, and Gryz has proven himself to be our third best D all year.

The playoffs in every sport are faster, more intense, more physical, and higher pressure.

Not everyone responds well to that, even the greatest of regular season players. Karl Malone is a perfect example. So no, this isn't always true.

 

[dafoomie]

I always held you in a higher tier of poster who I wouldn't have thought needed to rely on this type of disingenuous crutch.

That's too bad.

Just look at the poster above you for why I don't think I can have an actual conversation on that subject here.

 

[Gonzothe7thDman]

There is nothing magical about the playoffs. Matt is 1/2 of a d pair that is top 5 in the league. He gets the tough matchups every single game that he plays with McAvoy. Literally the only difference between the playoffs and the regular season is the overtime rules and the fact that if you don't win 4 out of every 7 games your out. Coaches don't have secret weapons that they pull out to "expose" players in the playoffs. This sort of magical thinking gives media guys like Mike Millbury platitudes to fill time with and avoid the brain hurt they get from the bare minimum of critical thinking. The best players in the regular season are the best players in the playoffs, and Gryz has proven himself to be our third best D all year.

The only thing I disagree with really is that in the regular season players take shifts/periods/games off.

Guys will coast on a back check, pull up on a hit, etc.

Playoffs the players are usually all giving 100%. Players are busting ass on the back check (except Marchand in a game 7), everyone is usually finishing hits even if it's out of character.

There is a difference in effort levels for the most part.

 

[Smitty93]

The idea that the smallest d-man in the league can’t be the guy that is a statistical outlier with GF vs xGF shows as much close mindedness as folks who dismiss xGF stats as witchcraft. Gryz already is an outlier! An outlier causing other outliers is just the nature of reality.

Heck I don’t even think anyone is trying to argue “Gryz small. Small in playoff bad.” as an absolute. Just that some teams can wear him down into making some Jake Gardiner kind of plays.

The problem now is that no one is gonna make a nice YouTube clip of every goal allowed by Gryz in the playoffs and breakdown what was bad luck, what wasn’t his fault, and what was his fault, and what was his fault because of his size…so everyone is just coming in and confirming their bias, including folks who think that using numbers puts them above bias.

Edit: I say all this as someone who very much puts himself in the pro-Gryz crowd

It's exactly this, and even then it's tough because it's a judgement call on a lot of that stuff. What's clear is he's an outlier, just a question of whether he's a temporary outlier or a permanent one, and it's incredibly difficult to answer that question.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Just look at the poster above you for why I don't think I can have an actual conversation on that subject here.

But you’re not trying to have an actual conversation whatsoever.

 

[NDiesel]

The idea that the smallest d-man in the league can’t be the guy that is a statistical outlier with GF vs xGF shows as much close mindedness as folks who dismiss xGF stats as witchcraft. Gryz already is an outlier! An outlier causing other outliers is just the nature of reality.

Heck I don’t even think anyone is trying to argue “Gryz small. Small in playoff bad.” as an absolute. Just that some teams can wear him down into making some Jake Gardiner kind of plays.

The problem now is that no one is gonna make a nice YouTube clip of every goal allowed by Gryz in the playoffs and breakdown what was bad luck, what wasn’t his fault, and what was his fault, and what was his fault because of his size…so everyone is just coming in and confirming their bias, including folks who think that using numbers puts them above bias.

Edit: I say all this as someone who very much puts himself in the pro-Gryz crowd

But here's the thing - at least the analytical crowd is giving examples and arguments towards why they view this. They put effort into it every time. Whereas everyone else is generally just saying "he's exposed in the playoffs, trust me." The only stat they actually use is plus/minus which can be highly flawed at times

Its not that difficult to go out and find at the very least a few clips of this to support your argument and i think that is why these conversations never go anywhere.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

But here's the thing - at least the analytical crowd is giving examples and arguments towards why they view this. They put effort into it every time. Whereas everyone else is generally just saying "he's exposed in the playoffs, trust me." The only stat they actually use is plus/minus which can be highly flawed at times

Its not that difficult to go out and find at the very least a few clips of this to support your argument and i think that is why these conversations never go anywhere.

It’s the irony of using a stat to justify an argument and then shitting on people for using stats.