I don’t even see any teams who would both want Duchene AND have the cap space for him who aren’t in a rebuild or retool.
I agree with everything you posted, but this was the key point that most fans miss. The market for Matt Duchene is
not 30 other teams. As you mention, the contenders are all pretty much all capped out and just trying to re-sign their key guys. The teams with cap space who might want to take a run at Duchene will all be teams in some kind of a rebuild. Some, like the Coyotes, don't spend to the cap. Now, would Duchene eventually find a team willing to give him, say, 8 mil x 7 years come free agency? Yes, but it's going to be a team like the Islanders or Florida, not Nashville or Tampa. If he purely wants to chase a ring, he'll have to do a Hossa and sign for well under market value. Duchene's agent knows this full well, and has no doubt discussed it with his client.
I also think that, all things being equal on the money front, Duchene would like to stay in Ottawa. He seems to genuinely enjoy the city, being back in Canada, and being reasonably close to Haliburton. Don't ever discount how important it is to these guys that their wives be happy as well.
My guess is that this goes right down to the trade deadline. Neither side wants to leave money on the table, so any time there is a deadline people tend to negotiate right up to it. (See the Nylander example recently.) We may well be waiting right until the morning of Feb. 25 to know if Stone and Duchene are staying or going. (Dzingel too for that matter.) Buckle up.