Matt Duchene - Should He Stay or Should He Go?

[CBJWerenski8]

Only three good bets for 20 goals? I mean I'd say 4 or 5 good bets (4 being Bjorkstrand, 5-6 if Duchene and/or Dzingel are here), but my point is "only 3" is still more than Nashville has. Why are you so damn sure they are going to be a cup contender again yet the Jackets will be a bottom 5 team?

Nashville has better centers, better defenseman, and will have better goaltending next year. They also play in the hardest division in hockey. Nashville, in the hypothetical they get Duchene, would have 4 sure bets for 20 goals (Arvidsson, Forsberg, Smith, Duchene) with potential for another two or three depending on their health and seasons (Subban,
Johansen, Josi). How is that not a cup contender?

I've been over it many times why the Jackets will be a lottery team.

 

[majormajor]

Nashville has better centers, better defenseman, and will have better goaltending next year. They also play in the hardest division in hockey. Nashville, in the hypothetical they get Duchene, would have 4 sure bets for 20 goals (Arvidsson, Forsberg, Smith, Duchene) with potential for another two or three depending on their health and seasons (Subban,
Johansen, Josi). How is that not a cup contender?

I've been over it many times why the Jackets will be a lottery team.

I'm critiquing your odd certainty that the Jackets will be a bottom 5 team next year with Duchene (the reason you want us to let him go and keep the pick, remember, because you are certain it will be a very high pick). So Duchene counts on the Jackets side of the ledger.

I love Craig Smith but if he's a "sure bet for 20 goals" then Foligno and Jenner and maybe more are "good bets".

Subban and Josi both have a chance at 20, sure, I don't see why they count and Seth Jones and Zach Werenski don't. That's a weird one.

Ryan Johansen hasn't topped 15 goals as a Pred, so I'm not sure why he is even listed here. I think Dubois will be the better player, perhaps as early as next year. If the Jackets get Duchene, then they definitely have the better centers, Turris has been turrible.

-----------------------------------------------------------

How is it not a cup contender? I don't know, maybe Nashville will pull it all together and win the cup. I just don't think their roster is much better than the Jackets, it's actually oddly similar. The big difference is age. And in the event the Jackets keep Duchene and Dzingel they actually have substantially better scoring depth. I might prefer them to the Predators.

~30 goals: Forsberg (NSH), Arvidsson (NSH), Anderson (CBJ), Atkinson (CBJ)

~25 goals: Dubois (CBJ), Duchene (CBJ), Dzingel (CBJ), Bjorkstrand (CBJ)

~20 goals: Smith (NSH), Granlund (NSH), Foligno (CBJ)

 

[NotWendell]

The Jackets are not and will not be a lottery team. Neither the Jackets nor the Preds will win the Cup.
(I hope if this post is thrown in my face in the weeks ahead, it's because of the last statement, not the first.)

 

[EspenK]

The Jackets are not and will not be a lottery team. Neither the Jackets nor the Preds will win the Cup.
(I hope if this post is thrown in my face in the weeks ahead, it's because of the last statement, not the first.)

Hopefully (?) you are right because if they lose the next 2 the chances are good they will be one this year albeit with a slim chance of finishing with a top 3 pick. Just nitpicking.

 

[Monk]

Nashville has better centers, better defenseman, and will have better goaltending next year. They also play in the hardest division in hockey. Nashville, in the hypothetical they get Duchene, would have 4 sure bets for 20 goals (Arvidsson, Forsberg, Smith, Duchene) with potential for another two or three depending on their health and seasons (Subban,
Johansen, Josi). How is that not a cup contender?

I've been over it many times why the Jackets will be a lottery team.

Columbus Blue Jackets 2016-17 roster and scoring statistics at hockeydb.com

How different is this roster from the one you project to see next year (and for the purposes of this discussion assume CBJ keeps Duchene)? Which do you think is better?

 

[EDM]

Keeping Duchene is critical to our team for next year. We are the only team that can offer 8 years. And with the financial space we will have after losing Bread & Bob we clearly have the money to make him the best offer. Plus we will have the advantage of him getting to play with Cam and Andy. I also think there is a high likelihood that his buddy, Dzingel will sign here. And there is the "new daddy" factor. Players with kids love Columbus. So I think it is very likely the Jackets will be able to keep him and there is o question that they should do that.

 

[Long Live Lyle]

Then why would he not sign a contract when he was traded here, like Mark Stone in Vegas?

He has interest in testing the market. It's pretty clear.

Maybe he has interest in doing just that: testing the market. Maybe another team will offer him 1-1.5 million more AAV and that’s worth it to him. Maybe he wants a bidding war. My post said if he’s offered the same AAV, he’ll sign here due to the extra year. At ~$8.5 million per year, and given he’ll be on the other side of 35 at the end of a 7-yr contract, that could be an extra $5 million for the 2026-27 season, even with salary cap increase/inflation.

Maybe he wanted to actually test Columbus. It’d be fair, given how the city/franchise might appear to outsiders after Bob/Panarin/Carter/Nash/Foote. He seems to love it, based on interviews. He has a much different personal situation/personal interests than Panarin/Carter. He’s much closer to Cam’s situation (who’s been in his ear). The franchise is in a much better position than when Nash and Foote (and Carter) departed. With Bob, I think it has to do with money/respect/term. See my first paragraph for that: if Duchene gets a better deal elsewhere, then he’ll likely go.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Columbus Blue Jackets 2016-17 roster and scoring statistics at hockeydb.com

How different is this roster from the one you project to see next year (and for the purposes of this discussion assume CBJ keeps Duchene)? Which do you think is better?

That roster will be better than the one I project to be iced next year. At the time Wennberg was an ascending #1 center, Saad looked to be a frustrating 25+ goal scorer, and was the start of Atkinson's rise. The current defensive setup, and likely next years, is better, but that and center ice play is the only advantage that roster will likely have over next year. The defense is mostly the same, but players have developed, so naturally next years will get better.

Jones then < now
Werenski then > now
Savard then = now
Murray then < now
Nutivaara then < now
Harrington then < now
Quincey then < McQuaid now
Prout then < Kukan now

Johnson has nobody to put up against. But he was a valuable top 4 defenseman for us that year, and made a great shutdown pair with Savard. So he was valuable.

Wennberg then >> Wennberg now
Dubinsky then >> Dubinsky now
Gagner then << Dubois now
Jenner then < Jenner now
Sedlak then = Sedlak now
Karlsson then < Duchene now

The players on our team still around are better than they were then. But the players replacing the ones lost (Saad, Hartnell, Karlsson, Gagner) won't be as good as they were.

 

[Monk]

That roster will be better than the one I project to be iced next year. At the time Wennberg was an ascending #1 center, Saad looked to be a frustrating 25+ goal scorer, and was the start of Atkinson's rise. The current defensive setup, and likely next years, is better, but that and center ice play is the only advantage that roster will likely have over next year. The defense is mostly the same, but players have developed, so naturally next years will get better.

Jones then < now
Werenski then > now
Savard then = now
Murray then < now
Nutivaara then < now
Harrington then < now
Quincey then < McQuaid now
Prout then < Kukan now

Johnson has nobody to put up against. But he was a valuable top 4 defenseman for us that year, and made a great shutdown pair with Savard. So he was valuable.

Wennberg then >> Wennberg now
Dubinsky then >> Dubinsky now
Gagner then << Dubois now
Jenner then < Jenner now
Sedlak then = Sedlak now
Karlsson then < Duchene now

The players on our team still around are better than they were then. But the players replacing the ones lost (Saad, Hartnell, Karlsson, Gagner) won't be as good as they were.

So the majority of the core is improving or just as good and they're going to go from 108 points to a bottom 5 team because they lost Saad (Dzingel?), Hartnell (Anderson?), Karlsson (super meh) and Gagner (Bjorkstrand?)? I don't understand how you're reaching your conclusion from the above. And that's even assuming I agree with all of the above assessments. Karlsson then only a single < than Duchene?

 

[CBJWerenski8]

So the majority of the core is improving or just as good and they're going to go from 108 points to a bottom 5 team because they lost Saad (Dzingel?), Hartnell (Anderson?), Karlsson (super meh) and Gagner (Bjorkstrand?)? I don't understand how you're reaching your conclusion from the above. And that's even assuming I agree with all of the above assessments. Karlsson then only a single < than Duchene?

Um... more like losing Bobrovsky, Panarin, and potentially Duchene and Dzingel. Yes, the core is better than they were 2-3 years ago. And that's good. That doesn't mean they're going to stay afloat. They don't have any stars up front and a huge question mark in net. They maybe won't be a bottom 5 team, but they will for sure be in the 10th overall range.

 

[Monk]

Um... more like losing Bobrovsky, Panarin, and potentially Duchene and Dzingel. Yes, the core is better than they were 2-3 years ago. And that's good. That doesn't mean they're going to stay afloat. They don't have any stars up front and a huge question mark in net. They maybe won't be a bottom 5 team, but they will for sure be in the 10th overall range.

But of those 4 only Bob was on the team when they totaled 108 points. And the metro is arguably weaker now than it was then. So if that core is the same or better, you're pretty much exclusively blaming poor goaltending for a massive point difference. I'm not saying they'll put up 108 points again or be a contender next year, but I will go so far as to say your view is pessimistic. And you know I don't throw around the P word very often.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

But of those 4 only Bob was on the team when they totaled 108 points. And the metro is arguably weaker now than it was then. So if that core is the same or better, you're pretty much exclusively blaming poor goaltending for a massive point difference. I'm not saying they'll put up 108 points again or be a contender next year, but I will go so far as to say your view is pessimistic. And you know I don't throw around the P word very often.

I completely disagree about the metro being weaker now. The last three Cup winners have come from the Metro. Philadelphia is a playoff lock next year if Carter Hart plays anywhere near his production this year and stays healthy. Carolina is going to become a power if they can get a goalie, and if they don't they will at least be a bubble team. We'll fall back, and I think the Isles will too (slightly, they'll still be a bubble team). NYR have some talent but will need a bit (this is who we're most like IMO), and Jersey is awful.

 

[Monk]

I completely disagree about the metro being weaker now. The last three Cup winners have come from the Metro. Philadelphia is a playoff lock next year if Carter Hart plays anywhere near his production this year and stays healthy. Carolina is going to become a power if they can get a goalie, and if they don't they will at least be a bubble team. We'll fall back, and I think the Isles will too (slightly, they'll still be a bubble team). NYR have some talent but will need a bit (this is who we're most like IMO), and Jersey is awful.

You're focusing on the least important part of my post. The top of the metro is worse and the bottom is better imo, just to say it. I think it's slightly less intimidating overall.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I completely disagree about the metro being weaker now. The last three Cup winners have come from the Metro. Philadelphia is a playoff lock next year if Carter Hart plays anywhere near his production this year and stays healthy. Carolina is going to become a power if they can get a goalie, and if they don't they will at least be a bubble team. We'll fall back, and I think the Isles will too (slightly, they'll still be a bubble team). NYR have some talent but will need a bit (this is who we're most like IMO), and Jersey is awful.

And the elephant in the room is that with Crosby and Ovi (even if their teams don't win the division or the Cup) in the Metro, they're gonna take playoff spots.

 

[Monk]

And the elephant in the room is that with Crosby and Ovi (even if their teams don't win the division or the Cup) in the Metro, they're gonna take playoff spots.

Are they tho?

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Are they tho?

Yep. Pittsburgh was literally 2 points ahead of us after we beat them that one game at Nationwide. Now, they're 9 points ahead. That's a team that knows when to push the pedal down, and when they do they more often than not win. Washington is the same way.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Are they tho?

Agree with Wennberg. Those are generational players surrounded by good talent in good organizations. It feels to me like as long as those two are there, even if they're not the division's best, they're gonna be in there leaving the rest fighting over two fewer spots.

EDIT: At the risk of giving myself the last word, this has the potential to draft way(er) off-topic.

 

[MoeBartoli]

That roster will be better than the one I project to be iced next year. At the time Wennberg was an ascending #1 center, Saad looked to be a frustrating 25+ goal scorer, and was the start of Atkinson's rise. The current defensive setup, and likely next years, is better, but that and center ice play is the only advantage that roster will likely have over next year. The defense is mostly the same, but players have developed, so naturally next years will get better.

Jones then < now
Werenski then > now
Savard then = now
Murray then < now
Nutivaara then < now
Harrington then < now
Quincey then < McQuaid now
Prout then < Kukan now

Johnson has nobody to put up against. But he was a valuable top 4 defenseman for us that year, and made a great shutdown pair with Savard. So he was valuable.

Wennberg then >> Wennberg now
Dubinsky then >> Dubinsky now
Gagner then << Dubois now
Jenner then < Jenner now
Sedlak then = Sedlak now
Karlsson then < Duchene now

The players on our team still around are better than they were then. But the players replacing the ones lost (Saad, Hartnell, Karlsson, Gagner) won't be as good as they were.

I like how you approached this and agree with most of your direct comparison and your better defensive conclusion which I think could be bolster even more if Gavorik is what I’m expecting.

I think you’re shortchanging the offense if Duchenne and Dzingel return. We would obviously be much stronger down the middle as both Duchene and Dubois > Wennberg of that team. Cam is Cam but now Andy is >> then Andy and > Saad. Bjork is one of the real wild cards here.

To me the greatest unknow is in net. Replacing Bob is huge and in reality it will be his position that is replaced – not Bob. Can we find above average goaltending?

The other unknown will be the coach. Torts or someone else? That could make a difference in several roster spots and TOI.

Overall, I don’t think nexts years team will exceed the point total of the 16-17 group, but the DCorp will be better and the forwards will be more talented but without as strong a scoring 4th line.

 

[Monk]

Agree with Wennberg. Those are generational players surrounded by good talent in good organizations. It feels to me like as long as those two are there, even if they're not the division's best, they're gonna be in there leaving the rest fighting over two fewer spots.

EDIT: At the risk of giving myself the last word, this has the potential to draft way(er) off-topic.

Agreed. Maybe CBJW will address the meat of my post instead of this tangent. I don't understand the logical path taken that adding Duchene and losing Bob = lottery team. That's somewhat on topic.

All I'm saying in re to the tangent is I don't think pitt is as good as they once were. Yeah, they'll prob make the playoffs.[/QUOTE]

 

[Jovavic]

Both teams also have more than two consistent offensive. If Crysob and Ovi aren't going, there's Malkin and Backstrom, and there's Kessel and Kuznetsov. We have Panarin, who has been trash for a month, Cam, who is down atm, and that's it. I wouldn't count Anderson in that category yet, but he's getting there.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I like how you approached this and agree with most of your direct comparison and your better defensive conclusion which I think could be bolster even more if Gavorik is what I’m expecting.

I think you’re shortchanging the offense if Duchenne and Dzingel return. We would obviously be much stronger down the middle as both Duchene and Dubois > Wennberg of that team. Cam is Cam but now Andy is >> then Andy and > Saad. Bjork is one of the real wild cards here.

To me the greatest unknow is in net. Replacing Bob is huge and in reality it will be his position that is replaced – not Bob. Can we find above average goaltending?

The other unknown will be the coach. Torts or someone else? That could make a difference in several roster spots and TOI.

Overall, I don’t think nexts years team will exceed the point total of the 16-17 group, but the DCorp will be better and the forwards will be more talented but without as strong a scoring 4th line.

Yeah, we'll see what happens. Who knows. Watch Jarmo keep Duchene, Dzingel, and swing a huge trade somehow for another top tier player. Then our only concern would be goaltending, and we could be a bubble team again next year.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

But of those 4 only Bob was on the team when they totaled 108 points. And the metro is arguably weaker now than it was then. So if that core is the same or better, you're pretty much exclusively blaming poor goaltending for a massive point difference. I'm not saying they'll put up 108 points again or be a contender next year, but I will go so far as to say your view is pessimistic. And you know I don't throw around the P word very often.

Not trying to ignore the meat of your post. But last post about it so we don't drift off topic like DSL said.

Anywho, Bob won the Vezina that year and was a major importance to that 108 point total. That, the powerplay, and the 16 game winning streak were the major contributions to that season. If you recall that season was supposed to be a bad year, one where we drafted high, because we went with a much younger lineup full of Monsters calder cup winners. We struggled at the start but then really kicked it into gear and had the streak. I still don't think that roster was playoff lock or 108 point good, it was a bubble team that went on a mean streak.

The core is better, which is good. But when you subtract from the core, especially its two most important players (or two players really high on the list) its going to take a major impact no matter what improvement from within comes from the other core members. The only way it won't, is if Korpisalo or Merzlikins play themselves into part of the core. Which is always possible, and something I think management will be banking on.

Maybe my viewpoint is pessimistic. Its so hard to say right now because nobody knows what will happen with Duchene or Dzingel or UFA or random trades in the summer. But going off of what we've seen so far in the Jarmo era it's tough to see next year going better than this year. They decided to keep their big chips and go for it this year rather than get future assets to help next year. I respect that, even if I disagreed, but those moves weren't made with next year in mind. It was this stretch run, and when it fails, and if the potential of all of the UFA's walking happens, it's not going to be a fun season.

 

[Monk]

Not trying to ignore the meat of your post. But last post about it so we don't drift off topic like DSL said.

Anywho, Bob won the Vezina that year and was a major importance to that 108 point total. That, the powerplay, and the 16 game winning streak were the major contributions to that season. If you recall that season was supposed to be a bad year, one where we drafted high, because we went with a much younger lineup full of Monsters calder cup winners. We struggled at the start but then really kicked it into gear and had the streak. I still don't think that roster was playoff lock or 108 point good, it was a bubble team that went on a mean streak.

The core is better, which is good. But when you subtract from the core, especially its two most important players (or two players really high on the list) its going to take a major impact no matter what improvement from within comes from the other core members. The only way it won't, is if Korpisalo or Merzlikins play themselves into part of the core. Which is always possible, and something I think management will be banking on.

Maybe my viewpoint is pessimistic. Its so hard to say right now because nobody knows what will happen with Duchene or Dzingel or UFA or random trades in the summer. But going off of what we've seen so far in the Jarmo era it's tough to see next year going better than this year. They decided to keep their big chips and go for it this year rather than get future assets to help next year. I respect that, even if I disagreed, but those moves weren't made with next year in mind. It was this stretch run, and when it fails, and if the potential of all of the UFA's walking happens, it's not going to be a fun season.

I don't think this is off topic since this conversation is context around the question in the thread title and is based off your conclusion that they should not keep Duchene because the pick they would give up will be top 5.

So to summarize just to make sure I understand:

Core = better
Minus Bob, Panarin
Add Duchene (at minimum)
Results in bottom 5 team.

Is that right?

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I don't think this is off topic since this conversation is context around the question in the thread title and is based off your conclusion that they should not keep Duchene because the pick they would give up will be top 5.

So to summarize just to make sure I understand:

Core = better
Minus Bob, Panarin
Add Duchene (at minimum)
Results in bottom 5 team.

Is that right?

Sigh.

 

[MoeBartoli]

Yeah, we'll see what happens. Who knows. Watch Jarmo keep Duchene, Dzingel, and swing a huge trade somehow for another top tier player. Then our only concern would be goaltending, and we could be a bubble team again next year.

Funny you mention the huge trade.....I have a sense Jarmo may pull off a surprise.