Matt Duchene - Should He Stay or Should He Go?

[majormajor]

My only question is "how much"? What's the Jackets walk-away point on an 8 year deal? I have to think it's close to $8m, maybe even higher.

 

[CBJx614]

While I still think he will move on, and it would be for the best interest for the club to let him move on, I still think he's a hell of a player that gets an unfair rep because of one coincidence.

See I think it would be a mistake to let him walk, unless he's asking for 10M plus.

The chances of us being able to acquire another player of his caliber in the foreseeable future are slim to none. He and Dubois make a great 1-2 punch down the middle with Duchene being highly skilled and Dubois brining the gritty edge. It leaves Jenner slotted perfectly and while I still think Wennberg will turn it around, it forces him out of the lineup (which makes a lot of people around here happy).

It all depends on his price point as to whether he's worth it or not.

My only question is "how much"? What's the Jackets walk-away point on an 8 year deal? I have to think it's close to $8m, maybe even higher.

I think we walk away at anything over 9-9.5M. While I don't wanna say the FO is desperate, I don't think they can afford the bad PR they'd get from letting 3 elite pieces walk in one off-season for nothing.

While we can get some stop gaps, I highly doubt we have the opportunity to bring any players in that are of Duchene or Panarins caliber unless they're homegrown talent.

 

[majormajor]

While we can get some stop gaps, I highly doubt we have the opportunity to bring any players in that are of Duchene or Panarins caliber unless they're homegrown talent.

In the near term, yes. But over the course of an 8 year contract, we'll get some good players, and feel the contract pinch at some point. Jarmo acquired Panarin in the first place, did he not?

 

[CBJx614]

In the near term, yes. But over the course of an 8 year contract, we'll get some good players, and feel the contract pinch at some point. Jarmo acquired Panarin in the first place, did he not?

Yes, but only because Chicago was in a pinch. Opportunities like that don't present themselves everyday. Just my opinion but I think he fits in perfectly with the team. And I'd bet if he sticks around he and Cam become a dangerous duo next season.

 

[EspenK]

I'd say 8 to 8.5 is the most Jarmo should pay and preferably no NTC or NMC, At the very least a modified NTC starting as soon as possible. 8 years for a 28 year old is a bit dicey. Maybe more $ and fewer years? I definitely think he should be re-signed but the long term issues need to be considered.

 

[Inquiring Minds]

I'd say 8 to 8.5 is the most Jarmo should pay and preferably no NTC or NMC, At the very least a modified NTC starting as soon as possible. 8 years for a 28 year old is a bit dicey. Maybe more $ and fewer years? I definitely think he should be re-signed but the long term issues need to be considered.

Be prepared.
NTC or NMC is almost a certainty. UFAs have waited a long time for the ability to control their own futures, and it is a major bargaining chip for security.
When you are negotiating, you will often give up more than you want to, just to keep talking to the other guy's face, and not his back.
This is a skill set that amazes me. To negotiate these kinds of deals, you have to keep so many balls in the air and consider so many things, balance your own POV as well as the other side's POV, your salary cap, what you can do to make more room, or consider what you can do with more cap space under Plan B if the guy walks away.
It seems like JK is a very good negotiator. He gets heat because he hasn't always gotten what we wanted, when we wanted it, but it is a hard argument to make that the OrganIZation is not much, much better since he took the reigns (Horton aside...)

 

[majormajor]

I'd say 8 to 8.5 is the most Jarmo should pay and preferably no NTC or NMC, At the very least a modified NTC starting as soon as possible. 8 years for a 28 year old is a bit dicey. Maybe more $ and fewer years? I definitely think he should be re-signed but the long term issues need to be considered.

I think it will have a full NMC and be an 8 year deal. I'd feel much better about a 6 year deal -- the downside scenario is he tails off badly around age 33, like Spezza, and we still have to pay him a couple more years. That hurt Dallas, and it would hurt us, but it hasn't killed them, and I doubt it would be that big of a problem for us.

The ability to offer an 8 year deal is one of the Jackets few advantages. The NMC part is just standard for a big deal like this, and with the way Duchene has been kicked around so far in his career, and now having a young family, it's just about certain he'll insist on controlling his movements.

I expect 8m x 8, just like the Johansen deal, but with full NMC and up front money.

 

[Nanabijou]

I think it will have a full NMC and be an 8 year deal. I'd feel much better about a 6 year deal -- the downside scenario is he tails off badly around age 33, like Spezza, and we still have to pay him a couple more years. That hurt Dallas, and it would hurt us, but it hasn't killed them, and I doubt it would be that big of a problem for us.

The ability to offer an 8 year deal is one of the Jackets few advantages. The NMC part is just standard for a big deal like this, and with the way Duchene has been kicked around so far in his career, and now having a young family, it's just about certain he'll insist on controlling his movements.

I expect 8m x 8, just like the Johansen deal, but with full NMC and up front money.

Yes, this is about what I'm expecting. The one ace the Jackets have that no one else does right now is the 8 year term. I doubt Dutchy will consider anything less from the Jackets in term. I would like to see 8x8, probably a bit front-loaded but I would like them to push for a NMC only in the first 4 or 5 years with at least a modified NTC in the last 3 or 4.

 

[EspenK]

This sounds encouraging,,.and he didn't even the zoo

10 Questions with Blue Jackets forward Matt Duchene

 

[Riceroni]

Duchene will sign an 8 year deal at $8.75 with the jackets... I hope you guys make the playoffs this year (maybe have one really bad year the one after) and then are back in the playoffs after that

 

[Jovavic]

I don't see him dropping off a cliff like Ladd, Backes, Lucic, Dubi, Umberger, etc., so I'd be ok with the 8 years.

 

[CarolinaBlueJacket]

If you were Duchene would you sign for 8 years with the CBJ? He wants to play for a winning team. That rules out the Jackets. Plenty of other winning teams will make him an offer.

 

[Fred Glover]

If you were Duchene would you sign for 8 years with the CBJ? He wants to play for a winning team. That rules out the Jackets. Plenty of other winning teams will make him an offer.

I think his market with other winning teams is limited due to their cap space. But we will see....

 

[Long Live Lyle]

I think his market with other winning teams is limited due to their cap space. But we will see....

We’re also the only one that’s able to give him 8 years.

I think he’ll re-sign if we give him a fair AAV. That extra year, his wife having family from Ohio, him seeming to enjoy the city, the fact thatwe’re not a trainwreck of a franchise (despite it sometimes feeling like we are)...

I think the point about the pick that CBJWennberg brings up is a fair one, but would still sign Duchene, because:

a) I don’t think we’ll be bottom 10 or anything like that (particularly with him. This roster without him? Yeah, maybe. Doubt it is with him);

b) Even if we are, the chances of us drafting top-2 are very small. And outside of that, you’re unlikely to land an elite/generational talent. Duchene himself was a 3rd overall pick. So was PLD. I wouldn’t trade a long-term-signed Duchene for the 2020 6th overall pick.

The fact we’ve already lost a first round pick is irrelevant. That’s a sunk cost. That should play ZERO factor in whether or not to re-sign him.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

If money was the most important thing to duchene he would have signed with Ottawa when they offered him, in his words, a fair contract. It appears he would forgo more money in aav if it meant he played for an annual contender. This is why I believe he will leave and sign with Nashville, who everyone thinks is where he’d most like to be.

They’ll let Simmonds and Boyle walk and be able to give him a nice payday, and he gets his yearly contender.

 

[Long Live Lyle]

If money was the most important thing to duchene he would have signed with Ottawa when they offered him, in his words, a fair contract. It appears he would forgo more money in aav if it meant he played for an annual contender. This is why I believe he will leave and sign with Nashville, who everyone thinks is where he’d most like to be.

They’ll let Simmonds and Boyle walk and be able to give him a nice payday, and he gets his yearly contender.

Ottawa is also a complete dumpster fire (both on and, perhaps more importantly, off the ice/with ownership). I don’t think he necessarily needs to be on a contender. I do think he wants away from complete messes, which we are not.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Ottawa is also a complete dumpster fire (both on and, perhaps more importantly, off the ice/with ownership). I don’t think he necessarily needs to be on a contender. I do think he wants away from complete messes, which we are not.

Then why would he not sign a contract when he was traded here, like Mark Stone in Vegas?

He has interest in testing the market. It's pretty clear.

 

[majormajor]

I won't profess to know what's in Matt's head, he might be set on the charm of Nashville. But the idea that their franchise is somehow going to be in a different category of success from the Jackets I think is overstated. I wouldn't expect the Jackets to finish ahead of Nashville next year, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they do. With all the bad luck and genuine dysfunction that has befallen the Jackets in the last month, and the much more difficult conference play, they're 4 points back of Nashville with a game in hand. Nashville isn't that good.

The idea that the Jackets are entering some kind of rebuild / dark period is a paranoid delusion. With Duchene, the Jackets would have all the basics in place except for that elite forward when Panarin is gone. I can think of a team in central Tennessee that has that same issue - solid depth, great D, lacks elite forward (no one in the top 50 of scoring in the NHL).

 

[majormajor]

Then why would he not sign a contract when he was traded here, like Mark Stone in Vegas?

Perhaps because the Jackets didn't offer him $76 million dollars! (thankfully).

We don't know what the Jackets offered. There's a lot more uncertainty surrounding Duchene's contribution than Stone's, so there might be a bit of a trial period as far as the Jackets are concerned.

 

[Booooooone 38]

Question for the board which would you rather have Duchene or Hayes and a first.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I won't profess to know what's in Matt's head, he might be set on the charm of Nashville. But the idea that their franchise is somehow going to be in a different category of success from the Jackets I think is overstated. I wouldn't expect the Jackets to finish ahead of Nashville next year, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they do. With all the bad luck and genuine dysfunction that has befallen the Jackets in the last month, and the much more difficult conference play, they're 4 points back of Nashville with a game in hand. Nashville isn't that good.

The idea that the Jackets are entering some kind of rebuild / dark period is a paranoid delusion. With Duchene, the Jackets would have all the basics in place except for that elite forward when Panarin is gone. I can think of a team in central Tennessee that has that same issue - solid depth, great D, lacks elite forward (no one in the top 50 of scoring in the NHL).

In the very good possibility that the CBJ lose all of Duchene, Panarin, Bob, and Dzingel. In what way is a roster losing two top line players, a middle 6 player, and elite starting goalie NOT entering a sort of rebuild? I don't think even the biggest pessimist would think this roster is going back to the old CBJ days or Edmonton like rebuild where we suck for years and years. But I think a significant step back for a few years before competing in the next 2-3 is entirely plausible. You can factor in UFA's coming as well, such as potentially Skinner, Eberle, Hayes, or Nyquist, but their impact wouldn't match anything close to whats lost, and would just be throwing money at people to remain a competitive bubble team MAYBE. No combination of realistic pickups could make this roster better next year than it is now, and this roster isn't even going to make the playoffs.

Bad luck has a factor in why we're here, but not that big. The failure rests by the coaches and players.

 

[majormajor]

In the very good possibility that the CBJ lose all of Duchene, Panarin, Bob, and Dzingel. In what way is a roster losing two top line players, a middle 6 player, and elite starting goalie NOT entering a sort of rebuild? I don't think even the biggest pessimist would think this roster is going back to the old CBJ days or Edmonton like rebuild where we suck for years and years. But I think a significant step back for a few years before competing in the next 2-3 is entirely plausible. You can factor in UFA's coming as well, such as potentially Skinner, Eberle, Hayes, or Nyquist, but their impact wouldn't match anything close to whats lost, and would just be throwing money at people to remain a competitive bubble team MAYBE. No combination of realistic pickups could make this roster better next year than it is now, and this roster isn't even going to make the playoffs.

Losing all those players hurts, and will surely drag the Jackets down in the standings, but from what reference point? This year's record? What exactly have Duchene and Dzingel contributed to this year's record? The team had a better record before they got here. Bobrovsky will be missed, I don't like our chances as much without him, but he's been league average this year, our goaltending could even be better next year (only with a new coach). And like I was saying, we don't have Panarin, but neither does Nashville. Neither did the 108 pt 2017 Blue Jackets.

Why is it not a rebuild? Because they're not losing the core of the team. Because they've got more than enough youth already. Because they're dropping from a ridiculous number of 20 goal scorers to a still well above average number of them.

Bad luck has a factor in why we're here, but not that big. The failure rests by the coaches and players.

We've seen this around the league over and over again - a team's shooting percentage goes in the tank (in the Jackets case, drops by half) and people randomly blame everything and everyone for the team's failure. Then the shooting percentage bounces back, and they start winning again, because the fundamentals didn't really change.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Losing all those players hurts, and will surely drag the Jackets down in the standings, but from what reference point? This year's record? What exactly have Duchene and Dzingel contributed to this year's record? The team had a better record before they got here. Bobrovsky will be missed, I don't like our chances as much without him, but he's been league average this year, our goaltending could even be better next year (only with a new coach). And like I was saying, we don't have Panarin, but neither does Nashville. Neither did the 108 pt 2017 Blue Jackets.

Why is it not a rebuild? Because they're not losing the core of the team. Because they've got more than enough youth already. Because they're dropping from a ridiculous number of 20 goal scorers to a still well above average number of them.



We've seen this around the league over and over again - a team's shooting percentage goes in the tank (in the Jackets case, drops by half) and people randomly blame everything and everyone for the team's failure. Then the shooting percentage bounces back, and they start winning again, because the fundamentals didn't really change.

Who's our core players to you? They're losing at least 2 of them, and if you're counting in TDD pieces to the core, then it's 3. That's a significant shakeup to ones core. (For reference, my view of the core is PLD, Jones, Bob, Panarin, Atkinson, Werenski, and now Anderson. Duchene too, if he counts) The only for sure 20 goal scorer on the roster next year is Atkinson. PLD and Anderson seem like good bets to get there too, but I would hesitate to say for sure. Bjorkstrand certainly has that potential, but that's it for right now.

The 2017 Jackets were an average team carried by an 18 game streak. While they earned that streak, that roster played way above their heads and it showed in the Pittsburgh series.

This years Jackets weren't even in the playoffs the day they went all in. To say this was an unlucky month and a half of hockey would just be foolish. They've been at or under .500 since the New Year, and have only had two good months out of the six this season. That's not a good team.

 

[NotWendell]

I'd like to keep everyone we got at the deadline - assuming Bob doesn't re-sign here. I figure Bread is already gone.

 

[majormajor]

The only for sure 20 goal scorer on the roster next year is Atkinson. PLD and Anderson seem like good bets to get there too, but I would hesitate to say for sure. Bjorkstrand certainly has that potential, but that's it for right now.

Only three good bets for 20 goals? I mean I'd say 4 or 5 good bets (4 being Bjorkstrand, 5-6 if Duchene and/or Dzingel are here), but my point is "only 3" is still more than Nashville has. Why are you so damn sure they are going to be a cup contender again yet the Jackets will be a bottom 5 team?