Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XII

[4thline]

You seem to be missing the fact that the information available also included potential growth. This was always a big possibility. He went "safe" and it'll cost this team significantly.

The biggest problem I have with this argument is that it ignores the fundamental and irrational value shift that Marner's camp pulled.

Projecting forward from last summer you can say-

he might take a step forward, and after a comparable season to
Gaudreau, he'll have earned a cap adjusted 7.7x6 that scales to 8.7 x 8 as a player that has proven ability to flirt with point per game and still potential for more.

or even
he might take a step forward, and after a comparable season to
Kane, he'll have earned a cap adjusted 9.18x5 that scales to 10.68 x 8 as a player that has proven MVP level ability

The key to both of those scenarios is that those are the proven values, locking in before hitting upside never yields full value for the upside because you're splitting the risk with the team

The 9x8 ask would mean valuing a guy coming off a 69 point season higher than a proven point per game guy with a with MVP potential, and it's really only an issue because he had the borderline MVP season and is now apparently rejecting that valuation.

 

[Gallagbi]

It's also logical to state that Marner shouldn't get more than Aho, I noticed that logic doesn't get a look in though

So your argument is to not use logic?

 

[realgoodleafs]

Imagine having to give up an unprotected 1st for every year the player is under contract lmao

 

[nobody]

The Matthews deal is the only thing Mitch can point to when asking for this money.

Dubas double ****ed us with that deal.

Except Mitch has 0 40 goal seasons, 0 30 goal seasons, only 1 PPG season vs 2 for Matthews, he's had no where near the linemates that Auston has had to work with thus far in his career and most important of all HE IS NOT A CENTER.

He can bitch and moan all he wants but he is not comparable to Auston. Dubas did fine with the Matthews deal too. He signed right in line cap % wise compared to what Eichel, McDavid, Draisaitl signed (who were his comparables).

 

[baton elevated]

Kucherov seems to be a good comparable to MM. mitch is younger with more development to come. He could be scary when he is filled in and 27 years old. I understand MM's camp and the money he seeks, we just can't do it because of our situation, not because we don't think he deserves it.

 

[Kiwi]

Mitch “I set my own comparables “ Marner

He's giving it a go, I'll give him that

 

[Cleetus]

True, but we don't really know if Matthews can kill penalties unless he gets the chance

why give him the chance when he will just float around out there and do nothing in the D zone, there is a reason he has not been given the chance.

 

[Notsince67]

What’s your point? Matthews currently isn’t a Top 5 player either...

Personally i wouldnt put him in the top 5 in centers either

 

[nobody]

What's an 80-85 point winger at ~22 years old worth right now? Asssums an 8-year deal.

Max money I would go is Kucherov + taxes. If he's an RFA which is what a 22 year old most likely is, he's only giving up half the UFA years that Kuch signed for so I would probably negate the taxes. That leaves max money at Kucherov contract so 9 mil?

 

[Gallagbi]

The biggest problem I have with this argument is that it ignores the fundamental and irrational value shift that Marner's camp pulled.

Projecting forward from last summer you can say-

he might take a step forward, and after a comparable season to
Gaudreau, he'll have earned a cap adjusted 7.7x6 that scales to 8.7 x 8 as a player that has proven ability to flirt with point per game and still potential for more.

or even
he might take a step forward, and after a comparable season to
Kane, he'll have earned a cap adjusted 9.18x5 that scales to 10.68 x 8 as a player that has proven MVP level ability

The key to both of those scenarios is that those are the proven values, locking in before hitting upside never yields full value for the upside because you're splitting the risk with the team

The 9x8 ask would mean valuing a guy coming off a 69 point season higher than a proven point per game guy with a with MVP potential.

Kane isn't really a comparable given the term. Were seeing lower teen equal lower dollars, so that 9x8 is well below 10+x 5 in a much lower cap.

 

[Kiwi]

So your argument is to not use logic?

That was logic

Using hindsight and dismissing the situation at the time isn't logical, just like Marner getting substantially more than Aho now isn't logical

 

[Gallagbi]

That was logic

Using hindsight and dismissing the situation at the time isn't logical, just like Marner getting substantially more than Aho now isn't logical

So we're expecting him to get Aho money now then?

What have I dismissed from the time?

 

[Kiwi]

Kane isn't really a comparable given the term. Were seeing lower teen equal lower dollars, so that 9x8 is well below 10+x 5 in a much lower cap.

As a % of today's cap Kane would be making around 9M×5, similar money and term to Aho, I'd also point out Kane had already lead his team on a deep playoff run at this point in his career as well

 

[Mess]

What happens to the process when Dubas asks to see the sheet?

Isn't that like asking a poker player to show you his cards because you believe he's bluffing and not holding the hand he's portraying.

By the time Dubas is entitled to see the sheet it will be too late as it will have Marner's signature on it.

Besides if all any player agent needed was an unsigned offersheet (not worth the paper its printed on) to fool his GM into using it as confirmation to gain a higher salary then agents would be handing these out like candy in contract negotiations.

 

[Maplebeasts]

The guys on TSN 1200 were talking about the Marner offersheet possibilities and all agreed that Marner has chance to be a Top 5 NHL player.

Why don’t HF Leafers see this potential??

We see it. We're just smart enough to not want to pay him that as an RFA when he's not even there yet.

 

[MyBudJT]

We see it. We're just smart enough to not want to pay him that as an RFA when he's not even there yet.

Are we though!? We signed Matthews to an unprecedented contract. (I’m not even saying it’s a bad contract). Now Marner wants the same treatment. You really can’t fault him for that...

 

[IBeL34f]

There's one thing about this whole process that I have yet to understand - If Marner's camp proposed a $72M contract last year, based (I'm assuming/hoping) on the expectation that he would continue his pace from the second half of the 2017/18 season while playing next to a Center like JT, then why have their demands changed so drastically now that he's achieved what they thought he was going to achieve? Did he really outperform his own camp's expectations that much? And, if so, why was their ask so outrageous last year?

 

[4thline]

Kane isn't really a comparable given the term. Were seeing lower teen equal lower dollars, so that 9x8 is well below 10+x 5 in a much lower cap.

The 9 x 8 floats in the middle. Viewed the Gaudreau/Kane context it was basically "Take it on faith that I'm going to be better than Gaudreau because I think I'm going to be Kane, and if I am it will cost you"

And really that's a fine gamble on Dubas part if you're working under the assumption that Marner would accept a Kane scale valuation.
Outcome 1- he flatlines, you're way better off than if you had locked him up at 9x8
Outcome 2- he hits Gaudreau level and accepts that valuation, you're slightly better off
Outcome 3- he hits Kane level and accepts that valuation, you're worse off, but acceptably so

What he didn't anticipate
Outcome 4- He hits Kane level, flips over the chess board and says f*** that give me what I want.

 

[Kiwi]

So we're expecting him to get Aho money now then?

What have I dismissed from the time?

He should be, Aho is a PPG center who's lead his team on a deep playoff run and scores more goals

 

[MattySnipes]

What's an 80-85 point winger at ~22 years old worth right now? Asssums an 8-year deal.

Well, in Mitch's case he's a PPG winger in just one of his year's. He is not a perennial PPG winger, as of now. Is he going forward? I believe he is. But he can't say he is a PPG perennial winger off of one great year. Just like how people say Auston isn't a perennial 40-goal scorer because he only did it once. You can account for pace, and all the other fancy numbers if you wish, I am just saying it how it is.

For a winger at 22 years old, coming off of one PPG+ season i'd be hesitant to go over $9M to be honest. Especially with the comparables out there. Not to mention Hayes at $7M really f***ed things up. But I digress, Mitch being a hometown kid, loves the Leafs, etc I would give him 9.25M or 10M max on an 8-year deal. Whether he takes it or doesn't is another thing entirely. Being the GM, I will not be bullied by your agent or father. We are being more than generous. We have put up with enough. If you still feel it's not enough, and there is no way you see yourself taking a bit less for maybe 2 or 3 years while we work everything out then we'll find you another team. Goodbye.

 

[4thline]

There's one thing about this whole process that I have yet to understand - If Marner's camp proposed a $72M contract last year, based (I'm assuming/hoping) on the expectation that he would continue his pace from the second half of the 2017/18 season while playing next to a Center like JT, then why have their demands changed so drastically now that he's achieved what they thought he was going to achieve? Did he really outperform his own camp's expectations that much? And, if so, why was their ask so outrageous last year?

Can't like at the moment but this.

It's negotiating in bad faith in the most egregious manner.

 

[IBeL34f]

Are we though!? We signed Matthews to an unprecedented contract. (I’m not even saying it’s a bad contract). Now Marner wants the same treatment. You really can’t fault him for that...

I'm pretty sure there's tons of precedent for the Matthews contract, and the examples have been posted a number of times on these Boards. It doesn't follow the McDavid/Eichel/Draisaitl contracts, but it very much falls in line with the Crosby/Malkin/Toews/Kane/Tavares/Stamkos contracts, if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Menzinger]

I’d take a 30G 95p winger who PKs over a 45G 80P Center who can’t PK any day!

Matthew's now has two seasons of scoring above a ppg.

Let's not warp facts to try an pove a point.

 

[Gallagbi]

The 9 x 8 floats in the middle. Viewed the Gaudreau/Kane context it was basically "Take it on faith that I'm going to be better than Gaudreau because I think I'm going to be Kane, and if I am it will cost you"

And really that's a fine gamble on Dubas part if you're working under the assumption that Marner would accept a Kane scale valuation.
Outcome 1- he flatlines, you're way better off than if you had locked him up at 9x8
Outcome 2- he hits Gaudreau level and accepts that valuation, you're slightly better off
Outcome 3- he hits Kane level and accepts that valuation, you're worse off, but acceptably so

What he didn't anticipate
Outcome 4- He hits Kane level, flips over the chess board and says **** that give me what I want.

....he hasn't hit Kane level yet though and he's still going to get paid like it.

 

[Deebo]

It's July 5th, some of you need to relax.