Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Less than 2 weeks to camp

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Nylander want “ready” to sign on his contract year?

Sorry, wasn't ready to sign after 2 years on his elc

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

If some Leaf Nation fans would have have screamed and shouted at the idea of Dubas signing Marner to the Draisaitl deal last summer then what will those same fans say now that Marner is going to get >$10 mil and not 8 years but 2-3 years less?

What was was viewed as bad overpayment last summer is even worse now in terms of cap hit AAV and term.

Dubas isn't vindicated by NOT giving Marner the Draisaitl deal last summer if the contract he signs him for now is much higher and less term.

I guess I'm asking how is smart of Dubas not pay Marner $8-$9 mil X 8 years last summer, but wise he waited to give him $10-$11 mil now for 5-6 years?

I think Dubas has done a good job on literally everything except 2 things...Sparks and the contracts to the big 3. He should have made Willy sit to show he is not going to be pushed around and he should have seen that MM would be looking for AM type money if he lit it up. Anyone could see that MM was going to score more points than the year before because of Tavares. So, he should have bitten the bullet and signed him to 8.5 or 9M over 8yrs because if he was asking that much after a 69pt season...did he think he was going to ask for the same after a ppg season at the min?

He must have had a clue as to what AM was looking to get and he should have signed MM first knowing that MM would be asking for whatever AM received. He messed up ...I like him..but he did mess up. I really think that management thought they would have the 3 kids interested in keeping their $$ down in order to win...he was wrong.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Dubas lets Nylander sit and some would be up in arms because you have a big piece out when trying to compete for the Cup
Sparks - total non-factor

 

[Suntouchable13]

Dubas lets Nylander sit and some would be up in arms because you have a big piece out when trying to compete for the Cup
Sparks - total non-factor

Honestly, I don't mind Dubas holding firm. Just please don't cave at the end. I am a Leafs first guy, I don't care about Marner's salary. I want it to benefit the Leafs chances of winning, not his bank account.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Honestly, I don't mind Dubas holding firm. Just please don't cave at the end. I am a Leafs first guy, I don't care about Marner's salary. I want it to benefit the Leafs chances of winning, not his bank account.

I don't know how people reach a conclusion that either party caved. We simply don't know. We have two pieces of information: 1) Nylander called Dubas, 2) The end result was a $7M6Y contract.

For all we know, that might have been as far as Dubas was willing to go, and Nylander called to accept it before his season was over. Or it could have been what Nylander wanted and he called for a last pitch and Dubas went along. We don't know.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I don't know how people reach a conclusion that either party caved. We simply don't know. We have two pieces of information: 1) Nylander called Dubas, 2) The end result was a $7M6Y contract.

For all we know, that might have been as far as Dubas was willing to go, and Nylander called to accept it before his season was over. Or it could have been what Nylander wanted and he called for a last pitch and Dubas went along. We don't know.

I didn't mean that Dubas caved to Willy or anything. I was talking strictly about this negotiation. I don't want him to cave in. My comment had nothing to do with Willy, sorry if it came off that way.

 

[ACC1224]

I don't know how people reach a conclusion that either party caved. We simply don't know. We have two pieces of information: 1) Nylander called Dubas, 2) The end result was a $7M6Y contract.

For all we know, that might have been as far as Dubas was willing to go, and Nylander called to accept it before his season was over. Or it could have been what Nylander wanted and he called for a last pitch and Dubas went along. We don't know.

Making him whole gave the impression that Dubas caved, IMO.

 

[Confucius]

9 million last year would have been an extreme overpay. Even though it seemed obvious he would tear it up last year with Tavares it would still be viewed as an extreme but lucky overpay.
It’s similar to Matthews: even if he performs up to his contract there will be many people who won’t be satisfied as they felt it was an extreme overpay to begin with (I’m not one of them).

If Dubas gave 9 million to Marner last year, what would he have to have given William? Their numbers were almost identical. Noway William would have settled for 6.9. And no we cant use last year numbers because we dont have crystal balls.

 

[Fogelhund]

Technically speaking for the betterment of the team Dubas could have traded Nylander. There were reports many teams were looking grab Nylander and Leafs said no



Why am I advocating this? Leafs GA as a team has been terrible and they need to improve that; leafs defense is still a mess and they could have used nylander to improve their D last season.

Rumours of Parayko, Dumba+, Pesce+ were there.

We could have still had our first round pick from the Muzzin trade; and may have had some cap space left after we traded Marleau so that we didn't have to give up another 1st rounder by retaining some money on his deal.

It all adds up in the end. Dubas clearly did not think of every scenario

Rumours? No, it was message board fantasy.

 

[Menzinger]

Technically speaking for the betterment of the team Dubas could have traded Nylander. There were reports many teams were looking grab Nylander and Leafs said no



Why am I advocating this? Leafs GA as a team has been terrible and they need to improve that; leafs defense is still a mess and they could have used nylander to improve their D last season.

Rumours of Parayko, Dumba+, Pesce+ were there.

We could have still had our first round pick from the Muzzin trade; and may have had some cap space left after we traded Marleau so that we didn't have to give up another 1st rounder by retaining some money on his deal.

It all adds up in the end. Dubas clearly did not think of every scenario

What makes you think these rumors have even a shred of credibility?

 

[Menzinger]

Also the suggestion that Marner deserved 9 mil a year after just his sophomore season was absolutely insane at the time, and remains absolutely insane still today. Even after a proven 90 point season his best contract comparisons have him only making a few hundred thousand over 9 mil today for crying out loud lol

Edit: not to mention basic logic suggests neither Marner nor Matthew's had much incentive to sign contracts last offsesson. And, as this summer has proven, you cant force an rfa to sign if they don't want to

 

[frizzer1]

If Dubas gave 9 million to Marner last year, what would he have to have given William? Their numbers were almost identical. Noway William would have settled for 6.9. And no we cant use last year numbers because we dont have crystal balls.

Exactly.
I'm surprised that others haven't thought about this.
If Marner had signed for 9, who knows what would have happened with Nylander?
Dubas had to sign willy first..too bad that it went the way it did.

 

[kb]

Also the suggestion that Marner deserved 9 mil a year after just his sophomore season was absolutely insane at the time, and remains absolutely insane still today. Even after a proven 90 point season his best contract comparisons have him only making a few hundred thousand over 9 mil today for crying out loud lol

Edit: not to mention basic logic suggests neither Marner nor Matthew's had much incentive to sign contracts last offsesson. And, as this summer has proven, you cant force an rfa to sign if they don't want to

The logic is 61+61 deserves $6 million, $6.96 million is a gross overpay, stupid Dubas. 61+69 deserves $9 million.....a steal, stupid Dubas.

 

[ORRFForever]

Making him whole gave the impression that Dubas caved, IMO.

That and Nylander's poor performance after he returned.

 

[PromisedLand]

What makes you think these rumors have even a shred of credibility?

What makes you think they don't?

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

8.5 would have been fine and Nylander would still have come in around where he did.
I don't believe the bolded to be true at all. Not even close, IMO

I started the thread below almost 2 years ago. Sorry to use my own thread but it's the one I could easily search for. My recollection is every similar thread had the same results until the day Tavares was signed when the obvious predictions started about how Marner would benefit. That's when people started talking about how Marner's salary would go through the roof (and they were right).

The grim reality of the impending Leafs' cap space issues.

Feel free to scroll through it. I just looked at every page. Several people have Marner and Nylander at even salaries, several people have Nylander between a half million to one million more in salary. Not one person in the entire thread has Marner making more. I get why opinions have changed between then and now but I'm having a hard time understanding how people are forgetting what the pecking order was not that long ago.

I feel very strongly Dubas knew what the *real* pecking order was (Marner is more valuable) and how important it was to sign Nylander first to establish a precedent which is why he took the stand he did.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

If Dubas gave 9 million to Marner last year, what would he have to have given William? Their numbers were almost identical. Noway William would have settled for 6.9. And no we cant use last year numbers because we dont have crystal balls.

Agreed. It likely wouldn't have affected the Matthews deal since they seem to have given him whatever he wanted but I believe they saved at least a million on Nylander's deal and maybe more by signing him first. Giving Marner $8.5-9M would have automatically triggered Nylander's camp holding out for the same.

 

[Menzinger]

What makes you think they don't?

Because they don't sound very believable? And that the majority of these so called rumors turn out to be nothing but hot air....

 

[thewave]

Agreed. It likely wouldn't have affected the Matthews deal since they seem to have given him whatever he wanted but I believe they saved at least a million on Nylander's deal and maybe more by signing him first. Giving Marner $8.5-9M would have automatically triggered Nylander's camp holding out for the same.

Nylander didn't have the numbers to demand the same. Just pure fantasy.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Nylander didn't have the numbers to demand the same. Just pure fantasy.

So Marner's massive 69 points were so Earth shatteringly better than Nylander's 61? Come on.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Agreed. It likely wouldn't have affected the Matthews deal since they seem to have given him whatever he wanted but I believe they saved at least a million on Nylander's deal and maybe more by signing him first. Giving Marner $8.5-9M would have automatically triggered Nylander's camp holding out for the same.

But the Matthews contract seems to be causing massive problems in the Marner negotiation.

So due to the Matthews contract, Marner now thinks he’s worth a higher aav on a 4 year rfa deal than a 130 point winger gets on 8 ufa years.

 

[4thline]

Also the suggestion that Marner deserved 9 mil a year after just his sophomore season was absolutely insane at the time, and remains absolutely insane still today. Even after a proven 90 point season his best contract comparisons have him only making a few hundred thousand over 9 mil today for crying out loud lol

Is it though? With hypothetical fair deal to Nylander being 6.5x6 and a demonstrated willingness to stretch above fair to 7 x 6 it stands to reason that Nylander on 8 would be 7.5-8m, without any upward influences from Marner. So we're talking about 1-1.5 million, with a higher output season while younger, and a likely big season yet to come.

Looking at Marner last summer, say you came to him with an offer that gave him the benefit of the doubt for hitting Gaudreau numbers (~80 points), which would be ~7.7 x 6 assuming an 83 million dollar cap. That lines up about with a 8.5-9 x 8 contract.

Would he have taken that? I don't know. But we'd be better off with Marner and Nylander on matching 7.7 x 6 deals than where we are today, and it's fair to say that the Nylander/Marner/Matthews prioritization decision was one area that it looks like Dubas goofed.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

So Marner's massive 69 points were so Earth shatteringly better than Nylander's 61? Come on.

Nylander got 61 points playing with Matthews. Marner got 69 points, a year younger, playing with MUCH lesser players than matthews.

He was quite clearly worth much more than Nylander, even then.

 

[HolyCrap]

If Dubas signed everyone last year
Nylander 8m/8
Marner 8.5m/8
Matthews 12m/8
28.5m/max term

Now
Nylander 7m/6
Marner 10m/3-5
Matthews 11.6m/5
28.6m/much less term

Dubas messed up.

You’re assuming they would sign and at that price. Your argument is just a personal dream. Look at it with common sense and you will realize that there are two parties for each contract. This is the last time I’m saying this. Dubas cannot put a gun to their heads and tell them to sign. It’s illegal.

 

[axlrose87]

If some Leaf Nation fans would have have screamed and shouted at the idea of Dubas signing Marner to the Draisaitl deal last summer then what will those same fans say now that Marner is going to get >$10 mil and not 8 years but 2-3 years less?

What was was viewed as bad overpayment last summer is even worse now in terms of cap hit AAV and term.

Dubas isn't vindicated by NOT giving Marner the Draisaitl deal last summer if the contract he signs him for now is much higher and less term.

I guess I'm asking how is smart of Dubas not pay Marner $8-$9 mil X 8 years last summer, but wise he waited to give him $10-$11 mil now for 5-6 years?

You don't give a guy $72 million over 8 years after a 20 goal, 69 point season (career high at that time).
Yes, he has raised his value since them. That's a good thing.
Too big of a long term gamble to give him that contract at that time. What if Marner regressed this past season like guys like Alex wennberg, Clayton Keller, Patrick Laine, etc...
Dubas played it just fine.
$72 million over 8 years is about what a 26 goal, 94 point rfa is worth now. If marner can't accept that, then he may have play out the season wherever the f*** he is now in Europe.