Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Less than 2 weeks to camp

[MyBudJT]

You don't give a guy $72 million over 8 years after a 20 goal, 69 point season (career high at that time).
Yes, he has raised his value since them. That's a good thing.
Too big of a long term gamble to give him that contract at that time. What if Marner regressed this past season like guys like Alex wennberg, Clayton Keller, Patrick Laine, etc...
Dubas played it just fine.
$72 million over 8 years is about what a 26 goal, 94 point rfa is worth now. If marner can't accept that, then he may have play out the season wherever the **** he is now in Europe.

I would have. It was clear he grew a lot in his sophomore year... over the second half of the season and into the playoffs, he paced for 95 points.

Also, name the last 94 point winger to earn less than 10M on their next contract.

 

[Nithoniniel]

I didn't mean that Dubas caved to Willy or anything. I was talking strictly about this negotiation. I don't want him to cave in. My comment had nothing to do with Willy, sorry if it came off that way.

No worries. I misread your post.

Making him whole gave the impression that Dubas caved, IMO.

Yeah maybe. I just think that's a given under the circumstances.

Nylander got 61 points playing with Matthews. Marner got 69 points, a year younger, playing with MUCH lesser players than matthews.

He was quite clearly worth much more than Nylander, even then.

Marner played with Bozak and JvR, and their average production was higher than that of Matthews and Hyman. They also got a significantly easier assignment in that second year.

Marner is a year younger and produced slightly better, and therefor had a better case. The difference wasn't substantial, when just going by the numbers.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

No worries.


Yeah maybe. I just think that's a given under the circumstances.


Marner played with Bozak and JvR, and their average production was higher than that of Matthews and Hyman. They also got a significantly easier assignment in that second year.

Marner is a year younger and produced slightly better, and therefor had a better case. The difference wasn't substantial, when just going by the numbers.

Pastrnak got 37 goal/78 point pace a year younger than Nylander got 20 goals/60 points... yet many on this forum think they’re worth the same money.

See how silly that all sounds when applied to other players?

 

[axlrose87]

The logic is 61+61 deserves $6 million, $6.96 million is a gross overpay, stupid Dubas. 61+69 deserves $9 million.....a steal, stupid Dubas.

This is the best post in the thread.
It really makes you wonder if the guys posting that dubas should have signed him to $9 million are actually leafs fans or just trolls.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

What the heck is everyone in here arguing over hypotheticals and speculation for. Haha to funny not a shred of relevance)

 

[axlrose87]

I would have. It was clear he grew a lot in his sophomore year... over the second half of the season and into the playoffs, he paced for 95 points.

Also, name the last 94 point winger to earn less than 10M on their next contract.

The guy who just led the nhl in points.

 

[saffronleaf]

Greedy Mitch should not be paid as much as Kucherov. 9m x 8 years take it before training camp starts or you're never playing as a Leaf again.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Pastrnak got 37 goal/78 point pace a year younger than Nylander got 20 goals/60 points... yet many on this forum think they’re worth the same money.

See how silly that all sounds when applied to other players?

Well, if you look at contracts overall then a one year age difference doesn't seem to make much difference at all. Talking about contracts, Marner being a year younger doesn't move his projection much. It matters when talking about who is the better player though. Just one of many inefficiencies with how the contract market works.

As for Pastrnak vs Nylander, it's the same thing as in all discussions you have on these topics. You focus solely on one factor and then yells about how it doesn't produce the same results, when those are the end product of many such factors.

Nylander vs Pastrnak boils down to:
- Pastrnak had more points in his final year.
+ Nylander had two seasons of high end performance compared to one.
+ Pastrnak had 10 empty net points, Nylander had zero.
- Nylander is a worse goalscorer, and that is more valuable.
+ Pasta had better linemates.

And on it goes. All these factors matter. Maybe age too, to a degree. But you can't isolate just one of them and say it should dictate results in all cases when that means you ignore others. Pasta's goalscoring gives him an edge against Nylander, who neutralizes that in other areas. Matthews' goalscoring gives him an edge over Marner, who fails to make up for it in other areas.

 

[Menzinger]

I would have. It was clear he grew a lot in his sophomore year... over the second half of the season and into the playoffs, he paced for 95 points.

Also, name the last 94 point winger to earn less than 10M on their next contract.

Kane's post elc deal. Admittedly he had a high of 88 points, but league scoring was lower.

And of course you have kucherov, one of the league's best offensive producers signed for under 10 on a deal that took up more ufa years than Marners

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Nylander will earn every cent of that contract offensively and will likely by the end of it be a very decent defensive player adding veteran expierence to the young guys. That is a lot of years that will pass. His shot is almost as sneaky quick as Matthews, ownes the puck in the offensive zone and a high percentage of the time takes it there with awesome zome entry skills. Skates as well as anybody on the team very elite skater. Has always worked hard on his game.

Very high quality player. Just watch how much players equally as talented get as the value/cap esculates as years go by. Its almost negligible amounts in the full picture everyone is going on and on about.

Ha relax its not that bad.

 

[Notsince67]

Oh no, not you again. I thought you put me on ignore. And also: aren’t you supposed to be a fan of another team? That was the rumour for awhile.
Anyways: do you like Matthews contract? That certainly seems like a much more sensible hedging of a bet wouldn’t you think?
While I agree that Marner looked poised to have a great year at the start of last season; he finished strong the preceding year and was going to start the season with Tavares. There were no guarantees that he would get a full season playing with a superstar; injuries and lineup shuffling could have worked against him.
Safe bet on hindsight but a 9 million aav for unproven Marner would have made Dubas a laughingstock. Hot finish to 2018 season aside he had played on the fourth line for a time that year.

Dubas' job is not to get everyones democratic vote and make his decision. I and many would have expected 8.5 to 9mm for 8 years last year. Many more dont have an educated opinion or just a plain wrong one. Being laughed by the later is no excuse for not making the right decision

 

[axlrose87]

You say I'm not a leafs fan after thousands of posts in this forum...even during games? Why should anyone believe a word you have to say?

Because all of your posts are either contrarian or pessimistic against the leafs. Every single one.
Why would a fan ever do that to himself.

 

[Lauro]

There was no chance to sign all 3 last off-season. Dubas would have loved to do so of course. Stop this no foresight bullshit already.

 

[Cleetus]

im wondering who the next big RFA that is going to sign next, I hope its not Mitch want to see what Laine, or Rantanen gets

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

But the Matthews contract seems to be causing massive problems in the Marner negotiation.

So due to the Matthews contract, Marner now thinks he’s worth a higher aav on a 4 year rfa deal than a 130 point winger gets on 8 ufa years.

I was only addressing Nylander's signing.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Nylander got 61 points playing with Matthews. Marner got 69 points, a year younger, playing with MUCH lesser players than matthews.

He was quite clearly worth much more than Nylander, even then.

Not many people thought so at the time. Hindsight 20-20 and all that. BTW, Matthews was a rookie too. Having Bozak, JVR and Kadri as your most common linemates is nothing to sneeze at.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

You go look at “last year” prior to camp and you’ll be hard pressed to find many who didn’t think Marner would sign for more, most had him 500-1.5 mil more. If you think one guy gets more, I assume that means he’s seen as “superior”. Your memory is suspect.

Like I said, after Tavares signed and it was rumoured he would be paired with Marner, everyone knew what was coming. Before that...not so much.

 

[Martin Skoula]

im wondering who the next big RFA that is going to sign next, I hope its not Mitch want to see what Laine, or Rantanen gets

It's not going to matter really. If Rantanen gets a big deal, they'll point to it as a comparable. If Rantanen signs for 9x8, they'll ignore it and go on about how "Matthews is the only true comparable".

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Not many people thought so at the time. Hindsight 20-20 and all that. BTW, Matthews was a rookie too. Having Bozak, JVR and Kadri as your most common linemates is nothing to sneeze at.

Hindsight is the PRECISE tool with which we assess if a GM did a good job or not.

Otherwise, every gm is tied for being the best gm EVER. I mean... pretty much every deal makes sense at the time. But we separate the good gm's from the bad based on those who had the foresight to make good decisions.

If you want to suggest that "good" gm's were just lucky... well... that's pretty silly as well.

Good gm's are those who, via hindsight, we see had good foresight. Bad gm's are those who, via hindsight, we see had horrible foresight.

When it comes to the leafs current young star situation... well... Dubas looks like a pretty f***ing big idiot. No matter how you slice it.

 

[Notsince67]

Greedy Mitch should not be paid as much as Kucherov. 9m x 8 years take it before training camp starts or you're never playing as a Leaf again.

That you Dubas?

 

[Menzinger]

That you Dubas?

Just every sane Leafs fan

 

[Throw More Waffles]

That you Dubas?

I don't really understand your point here.

9.5 x 8, ALL ufa years. This is the best winger in the game, other than maybe Ovechkin, but Kucherov's contract starts THIS year.

What is it you're suggesting Mitch is worth in comparison to that? Even if we consider them 100% equally good. Even if we equate rfa years with ufa years. Even if we consider the tax situation.

Wouldn't that be around 10.5X8 for Marner?

So how do we possibly get to these absurd notions of 10x3 for Marner?

Now, let's add that Kucherov got 130 points last year, compared to Marners' 94. Let's consider that Marner is an rfa.

The fact that there's 4 rfa years alone offsets the tax situation. So even if we 100% equate Marner to Kucherov (which is pretty silly to begin with), wouldn't 9.5x8 be the HIGH end of a Marner contract?

 

[biotk]

Also, name the last 94 point winger to earn less than 10M on their next contract.

Ummm.….every single 94+ point winger in the cap era...

 

[Notsince67]

I don't really understand your point here.

9.5 x 8, ALL ufa years. This is the best winger in the game, other than maybe Ovechkin, but Kucherov's contract starts THIS year.

What is it you're suggesting Mitch is worth in comparison to that? Even if we consider them 100% equally good. Even if we equate rfa years with ufa years. Even if we consider the tax situation.

Wouldn't that be around 10.5X8 for Marner?

So how do we possibly get to these absurd notions of 10x3 for Marner?

Now, let's add that Kucherov got 130 points last year, compared to Marners' 94. Let's consider that Marner is an rfa.

The fact that there's 4 rfa years alone offsets the tax situation. So even if we 100% equate Marner to Kucherov (which is pretty silly to begin with), wouldn't 9.5x8 be the HIGH end of a Marner contract?

I dont frankly care what they pay him. Leafs are lucky to have him
This Kucherov thing has been done to death. Kucherov is underpaid period. If he were on the Market right at this moment, he would get the highest contract in the NHL He could command over 13MM no problem. He has a no movement clause so he can keep to lower taxes. Repeating things over and over again just doesn't make it any more convincing

 

[Not Sure]

I dont frankly care what they pay him. Leafs are lucky to have him
This Kucherov thing has been done to death. Kucherov is underpaid period. If he were on the Market right at this moment, he would get the highest contract in the NHL He could command over 13MM no problem. He has a no movement clause so he can keep to lower taxes. Repeating things over and over again just doesn't make it any more convincing

Didnt Kucherov come out and say he wouldnt take less money if he had to do it again? Kucherov isnt a comparable, no one in Tampa is a comparable, they somehow get everyone on great deals. Dont blame it just on taxes either Florida, Arizona, Dallas, Vegas iirc are all state tax free states. Tampa just has a way of getting talent for nothing, Stamkos could have made 10+ million in Toronto or basically anywhere he wanted to go, but he went to Tampa for cheap. Marner can use who he wants as comparable, the team can use who they want, his real comparable is somewhere in the middle. Hes gonna get paid one way or another.