Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Less than 2 weeks to camp

[Mess]

New Thread:

Hopefully the last one before he signs.

Former Thread :
Marner Contract Discussion XX - The Dog Days of August V2

Click to read more...

 

[Mess]

If Marner signed for 9 last year people would now be screaming that Dubas should be fired because it should have been the Pasternak contract.
Fact of the matter is Ferris and Paul have been overvaluing Mitch for over a year now. If the ask was 9 last year that is ridiculous. There wasn’t even the audacious Matthews contract which Marner camp allegedly feels is a comparable.

If some Leaf Nation fans would have have screamed and shouted at the idea of Dubas signing Marner to the Draisaitl deal last summer then what will those same fans say now that Marner is going to get >$10 mil and not 8 years but 2-3 years less?

What was was viewed as bad overpayment last summer is even worse now in terms of cap hit AAV and term.

Dubas isn't vindicated by NOT giving Marner the Draisaitl deal last summer if the contract he signs him for now is much higher and less term.

I guess I'm asking how is smart of Dubas not pay Marner $8-$9 mil X 8 years last summer, but wise he waited to give him $10-$11 mil now for 5-6 years?

 

[PromisedLand]

Actually, it was only Kypreos who reported they'd actually talked 9x8. I don't recall a single other person say such (again that wasn't citing Kypreos)

And nothing of the sort regarding Matthews was ever reported as happening. There was a ton of speculation, but that's it.

Lots of speculation. Not a lot of people going on record saying these numbers were discussed or how close said numbers were to getting a deal actually done.

By your reasoning everything is speculation unless until confirmed either by the player/agent or the GM; but if one was to use some kind of logical reasoning one can piece information together.

Some articles from before aug 2018

Maple Leafs' Auston Matthews unsure if he'll sign new deal before season - Sportsnet.ca

“I’m not really involved with the talks. That’s something being dealt with by my agents and team management.
“They’ve told me that it will get done when it gets done, and that’s fine.”

Maple Leafs, star centre Auston Matthews talking contract extension - Sportsnet.ca
In adition to Matthews, the Leafs will also have to sort out the future contracts of players like Mitch Marner and Kasperi Kapanen, whose entry-level deals also expire at the end of this coming season, as well as restricted free agent William Nylander, who, as it stands right now, still remains without a deal for the 2018-19 campaign.

Nylander's contract talks could go down to wire (and that's OK) - Sportsnet.ca

“I’ve said all along that Kyle wanted to take things slow and I’m fine with that,” Nylander said.

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/auston-matthews-leafs-in-talks-on-extension-report-1.4763787
Matthews can expect his own big payday soon. Sportsnet's Luke Fox reported Thursday that the Leafs and the 20-year-old centre are in talks about a contract extension that will likely pay him upward of $80 million US over eight years.



Marner on if contract was offered by Dubas (June 2018)
Q&A with Maple Leafs’ Mitch Marner | The Star
Nothing has been said yet, but nothing you can do. If nothing happens, you still have a year to play under your rookie contract. Just go out there and try to prove you can make the team better.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner’s Contract Negotiations Could Be Tough




And here is a good article how foresight could have been used by Dubas
Leafs’ smartest bet is to sign Matthews, Marner, Nylander now


just for giggles here is a post by zeke which he has completely turned off and vehemently debated against for a while
Value of: - Auston Matthews New Contract

Why foresight matters?
How John Tavares Will Impact Mitch Marner’s Next Contract

I am at work or can I do more research. I remember reading articles last summer about Matthews looking for 8 year deal more than Eichel but less than McDavid

And 72 million for marner on the 8 year deal was reported too; if the claim is that marner bet on himself to take advantage of tavares; then that is a very very risky bet - marner could have easily been injured heck he had mono in his first season that impacted his production. that would have been a huge risk.


Conclusion:
From all of the above one could guesstimate that Dubas dropped the ball here and did not have a good foresight to get things done such that it benefits the team.

 

[Guided by Veseys]

If some Leaf Nation fans would have have screamed and shouted at the idea of Dubas signing Marner to the Draisaitl deal last summer then what will those same fans say now that Marner is going to get >$10 mil and not 8 years but 2-3 years less?

What was was viewed as bad overpayment last summer is even worse now in terms of cap hit AAV and term.

Dubas isn't vindicated by NOT giving Marner the Draisaitl deal last summer if the contract he signs him for now is much higher and less term.

I guess I'm asking how is smart of Dubas not pay Marner $8-$9 mil X 8 years last summer, but wise he waited to give him $10-$11 mil now for 5-6 years?

9 million last year would have been an extreme overpay. Even though it seemed obvious he would tear it up last year with Tavares it would still be viewed as an extreme but lucky overpay.
It’s similar to Matthews: even if he performs up to his contract there will be many people who won’t be satisfied as they felt it was an extreme overpay to begin with (I’m not one of them).

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

9 million last year would have been an extreme overpay. Even though it seemed obvious he would tear it up last year with Tavares it would still be viewed as an extreme but lucky overpay.
It’s similar to Matthews: even if he performs up to his contract there will be many people who won’t be satisfied as they felt it was an extreme overpay to begin with (I’m not one of them).

$9M would have been crazy last summer no matter what. People forget Nylander was still seen as the superior player last year by about half the fan base and Matthews was/is seen as the superior player by most people. Paying Marner that much would have inflated things even worse than they are now.

Nylander HAD to be signed first, it was the only possible approach.

 

[Fogelhund]

I guess I'm asking how is smart of Dubas not pay Marner $8-$9 mil X 8 years last summer, but wise he waited to give him $10-$11 mil now for 5-6 years?

Was Marner willing to sign at $8-9 mil x 8 years last summer?

 

[IPS]

$9M would have been crazy last summer no matter what. People forget Nylander was still seen as the superior player last year by about half the fan base and Matthews was/is seen as the superior player by most people. Paying Marner that much would have inflated things even worse than they are now.

Nylander HAD to be signed first, it was the only possible approach.

What a truly fascinating exercise of hindsight these people are doing eh?

There's no way in hell Nylander's ask is going below $8M (and that's the low end) if the guy who had 8 more points than him signs for $9x8.

 

[Guided by Veseys]

$9M would have been crazy last summer no matter what. People forget Nylander was still seen as the superior player last year by about half the fan base and Matthews was/is seen as the superior player by most people. Paying Marner that much would have inflated things even worse than they are now.

Nylander HAD to be signed first, it was the only possible approach.

Agreed. I also find it odd that some people lament not signing him for that ridiculous amount but at the same time despise the Matthews contract.
At least Matthews has the historic GPG, younger age and hardware to be paid imo what he is worth. What the hell had Marner done to warrant 9 aav? Score at ppg for half year? Gimme a break.

 

[ACC1224]

$9M would have been crazy last summer no matter what. People forget Nylander was still seen as the superior player last year by about half the fan base and Matthews was/is seen as the superior player by most people. Paying Marner that much would have inflated things even worse than they are now.

Nylander HAD to be signed first, it was the only possible approach.

8.5 would have been fine and Nylander would still have come in around where he did.
I don't believe the bolded to be true at all. Not even close, IMO

 

[PromisedLand]

$9M would have been crazy last summer no matter what. People forget Nylander was still seen as the superior player last year by about half the fan base and Matthews was/is seen as the superior player by most people. Paying Marner that much would have inflated things even worse than they are now.

Nylander HAD to be signed first, it was the only possible approach.

Technically speaking for the betterment of the team Dubas could have traded Nylander. There were reports many teams were looking grab Nylander and Leafs said no



Why am I advocating this? Leafs GA as a team has been terrible and they need to improve that; leafs defense is still a mess and they could have used nylander to improve their D last season.

Rumours of Parayko, Dumba+, Pesce+ were there.

We could have still had our first round pick from the Muzzin trade; and may have had some cap space left after we traded Marleau so that we didn't have to give up another 1st rounder by retaining some money on his deal.

It all adds up in the end. Dubas clearly did not think of every scenario

 

[Nithoniniel]

We could have still had our first round pick from the Muzzin trade; and may have had some cap space left after we traded Marleau so that we didn't have to give up another 1st rounder.

You probably need to expand your reasoning here. You are talking about trading Nylander to get a Dumba or Pesce, but when we get an equal player for only non-roster assets, you lament the loss of a 1st. Either you have a very low opinion of Nylander as an asset, or you're using some very questionable logic.

Dubas clearly did not think of every scenario.

That he didn't arrive at the same conclusion as you doesn't mean he didn't think of it to begin with.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Technically speaking for the betterment of the team Dubas could have traded Nylander. There were reports many teams were looking grab Nylander and Leafs said no



Why am I advocating this? Leafs GA as a team has been terrible and they need to improve that; leafs defense is still a mess and they could have used nylander to improve their D last season.

Rumours of Parayko, Dumba+, Pesce+ were there.

We could have still had our first round pick from the Muzzin trade; and may have had some cap space left after we traded Marleau so that we didn't have to give up another 1st rounder by retaining some money on his deal.

It all adds up in the end. Dubas clearly did not think of every scenario

last season is done, time to move on bro

 

[Notsince67]

9 million last year would have been an extreme overpay. Even though it seemed obvious he would tear it up last year with Tavares it would still be viewed as an extreme but lucky overpay.
It’s similar to Matthews: even if he performs up to his contract there will be many people who won’t be satisfied as they felt it was an extreme overpay to begin with (I’m not one of them).

Lucky to thise who are unable to see simple imperical trends. This isnt rocket science to many but unfortunately there are a few who are able to understand what the word hedging is.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Hey every one, let’s use 20/20 hindsight as well as fabricating scenarios in which we think we could have made a trade that has questionable reasoning, but state it in a way where we think we would definitely be better off.

 

[LeafalCrusader]

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

If Dubas signed everyone last year
Nylander 8m/8
Marner 8.5m/8
Matthews 12m/8
28.5m/max term

Now
Nylander 7m/6
Marner 10m/3-5
Matthews 11.6m/5
28.6m/much less term

Dubas messed up.

 

[ULF_55]

Was Marner willing to sign at $8-9 mil x 8 years last summer?

Maybe if Matthews signed for 8-9 x 8 years.

Seems unlikely anyone would have signed for 8 years.

 

[Once]

If Dubas signed everyone last year
Nylander 8m/8
Marner 8.5m/8
Matthews 12m/8
28.5m/max term

Now
Nylander 7m/6
Marner 10m/3-5
Matthews 11.6m/5
28.6m/much less term

Dubas messed up.

Lets be honest, Marner was waiting until after his 3rd year. Good on him, he'll get more $$. But I hope we aren't the ones paying his cash.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Hey every one, let’s use 20/20 hindsight as well as fabricating scenarios in which we think we could have made a trade that has questionable reasoning, but state it in a way where we think we would definitely be better off.

Hindsight is the PRECISE tool with which to asses if a gm did a good job or not.

If Marner was signed to a 9x8 contract last year, many people would have been upset in the moment (myself included, most likely), but with hindsight we’d now be saying “alright alright... Dubas nailed that one. I was wrong”.

But that can’t really happen with the contracts Dubas has given out. Matthews is paid like a 45 goal/100 point guy. He has to significantly IMPROVE to even meet his contract. Sure, I guess it’s possible that he’ll make his contract look like a discount... but that would be him turning into an unlikely 60 goal/130 point player.

20 goal/60 point players don’t make 7 mil aav. (Showing another HORRIBLE overpayment or two doesn’t change that fact). Nylander also has to significantly improve in order to earn his contract. The fact that he had a 10 goal/35 point pace year one doesn’t really help things....

No matter how you slice it, Dubas REALLY hasn’t handled the star rfa’s well. To the point there are even rumours that Shanahan has completely taken over the negotiations.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Maybe if Matthews signed for 8-9 x 8 years.

Seems unlikely anyone would have signed for 8 years.

Why? That’s what everyone was signing at the time. Eichel, McDavid, Draisytl, Kucherov...

It was Dubas himself that overpaid and changed the market. It’s a weird argument you're making “Dubas wouldn’t be able to sign those players by following the market because, in the future, Dubas changes that market”.

 

[DarkKnight]

$9M would have been crazy last summer no matter what. People forget Nylander was still seen as the superior player last year by about half the fan base and Matthews was/is seen as the superior player by most people. Paying Marner that much would have inflated things even worse than they are now.

Nylander HAD to be signed first, it was the only possible approach.

You go look at “last year” prior to camp and you’ll be hard pressed to find many who didn’t think Marner would sign for more, most had him 500-1.5 mil more. If you think one guy gets more, I assume that means he’s seen as “superior”. Your memory is suspect.

 

[DarkKnight]

Lets be honest, Marner was waiting until after his 3rd year. Good on him, he'll get more $$. But I hope we aren't the ones paying his cash.

I believe he would have jumped at 8.5-9 last year on a max deal. People would have called it an overpay, but just like Nylander is suddenly a steal, the market has changed. The self admitted Nylander slow play was Dubas’ error, Marner may well have signed had Willie been locked up.

As an aside you’ll recall people around the league couldn’t understand why it took literally until the 11th hour to sign Willie to that dollar amount, at that lower term...such a generous deal could have been hashed out in the summer. Sign Willie for even 7.5 in the summer, Marner gladly takes 8.5. I’ll never believe that couldn’t have happened, had we fast tracked Nylander realizing you don’t let Marner go into a season with JT, when everything pointed to a blossoming star. We screwed it up imho.

 

[Advanced stats]

If Dubas signed everyone last year
Nylander 8m/8
Marner 8.5m/8
Matthews 12m/8
28.5m/max term

Now
Nylander 7m/6
Marner 10m/3-5
Matthews 11.6m/5
28.6m/much less term

Dubas messed up.

No one other than maybeeee Marner was willing to sign last year.

So you're factually wrong. Additionally, you're making up all those numbers so you've proven nothing..

 

[Guided by Veseys]

Lucky to thise who are unable to see simple imperical trends. This isnt rocket science to many but unfortunately there are a few who are able to understand what the word hedging is.

Oh no, not you again. I thought you put me on ignore. And also: aren’t you supposed to be a fan of another team? That was the rumour for awhile.
Anyways: do you like Matthews contract? That certainly seems like a much more sensible hedging of a bet wouldn’t you think?
While I agree that Marner looked poised to have a great year at the start of last season; he finished strong the preceding year and was going to start the season with Tavares. There were no guarantees that he would get a full season playing with a superstar; injuries and lineup shuffling could have worked against him.
Safe bet on hindsight but a 9 million aav for unproven Marner would have made Dubas a laughingstock. Hot finish to 2018 season aside he had played on the fourth line for a time that year.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

No one other than maybeeee Marner was willing to sign last year.

So you're factually wrong. Additionally, you're making up all those numbers so you've proven nothing..

Nylander want “ready” to sign on his contract year?