Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects

[stickty111]

I have Scott ranked a lot higher despite his injury just due to the upside.

Yup thats fair. I thought about as high as 11.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yup thats fair. I thought about as high as 11.

I have him 6th behind Sandin, Liljegren, Bracco, Robertson and Woll. The reason why is because the rest of the guys I think top out as top 9 guys, small top 6 playmakers (in Abrusseze and SDA's case) or #4 defensemen or lower. While some may have higher floors, I like his potential to be an impact player for this organization more than most right now, and I think he still has a ton of value as a backup or #3 as well (if that is all he ends up becoming).

That being said, I expect our 2nd round pick to be ahead of him after this draft.

 

[Kiwi]

This is my end of the year prospect breakdown. These are subject to change if the hockey season resumes. I will start at the bottom at #20 and make my way to the top. There will be a separate post for every prospect. I will try to make one daily. By my criteria, Liljegren and Sandin are still prospects so they will be included in this one. I will also be revealing who I feel took the biggest step, dropped the most, and most underrated prospect and so on.
#15. Ian Scott
Overview
We get to our 1st of 2 goalie’s who are in the top 20. I debated putting Scott higher, and you can make a strong case he should be. However, he’s only had 1 albeit great season, while the others weren’t good at all and he missed all of this season, so 15 sounds about right. He also can really jump if he has a good season in pro. Scott came into his WHL bantam draft with a lot of hype taken 9th overall in 2014, but failed to deliver on the promise, and then Scott was taken 110th overall in the 4th round in the 2017 draft. You could have made the argument Leafs chose Scott after missing out on the higher goalie’s ranked, and after his D+1 season, he wasn’t looking good, but he really took off in 18/19 with a fantastic season, and gave people excitement and was rewarded with an ELC. He missed all of this season with an injury, so his pro debut will come next season, but we will have a better idea if 18/19 was a one off, or he is a blue chip goalie prospect.

Stats
2017/2018
WHL
GP: 50
GAA: 3:10
SV%: .897
SO: 0
2018/2019
WHL
GP: 49
GAA: 1.83
SV%: .932
SO: 8

Statistical Analysis
As you can see, what a difference a year makes. After being poor in the season prior and season’s before that as well, Scott put in an MVP season. His GAA was lower then 2, and his SV% was .932 along with 8 shutouts. He was given the top goaltender award. His playoff numbers were even more impressive with just a slight dip in both categories finishing with a 1.96, and a .925 SV%. He was named best goalie in the playoffs as well. You can scream “one year wonder”, but Prince Albert was just a good team on paper, and Scott was their best player, so Scott really was the driving force of the team. This might just be a player who is finally living up to the hype he had a few years ago.
Talent Analysis
I’m not going to even try evaluating a goalie, so there is nothing here. However I might have a little more analysis on Woll seeing him more.

My future projection: It’s fair to wonder if this is just one good season, but I feel like Scott is the real deal. He was the best player on just a good team on paper at best, and has a ton of talent. I think he becomes an NHL goalie of some sort.
NHL Player? No, but really because goalie’s are so unpredictable. You can put him as yes too because of the position.
Thoughts @Kiwi and @SeaOfBlue on the ranking? too high or too low? Do you guys think Scott becomes something?

Hard player to rank, how badly has missing a year of development hurt him and how long is this serious injury going to effect him? Won't know that until he starts playing again

I was very encouraged by his progression through junior and his last season there was world class, he looked like he was on a very steep upward trajectory until the injury derailed him

I struggle to rank or evaluate goaltenders and I wouldn't feel certain about ranking him without 12 months of play in pro hockey at least after all he's been through but I do think he'd rank higher on my list than #15 for all that

 

[stickty111]

I have him 6th behind Sandin, Liljegren, Bracco, Robertson and Woll. The reason why is because the rest of the guys I think top out as top 9 guys, small top 6 playmakers (in Abrusseze and SDA's case) or #4 defensemen or lower. While some may have higher floors, I like his potential to be an impact player for this organization more than most right now, and I think he still has a ton of value as a backup or #3 as well (if that is all he ends up becoming).

That being said, I expect our 2nd round pick to be ahead of him after this draft.

Hard player to rank, how badly has missing a year of development hurt him and how long is this serious injury going to effect him? Won't know that until he starts playing again

I was very encouraged by his progression through junior and his last season there was world class, he looked like he was on a very steep upward trajectory until the injury derailed him

I struggle to rank or evaluate goaltenders and I wouldn't feel certain about ranking him without 12 months of play in pro hockey at least after all he's been through but I do think he'd rank higher on my list than #15 for all that

Interesting viewpoints. Thanks guys

 

[Knies iT]

Pretty excited to watch McKenna next year. The kid can shoot a puck.

Looks like he needs considerable work on his top-end speed and overall strength, but he looks like a Debcrincat-lite stylistically.

 

[stickty111]

Lilly highlights from this season. He showed great playmaking, and also getting his shot through, which is one of the biggest improvements along with defensively ofcourse since his rookie season.

 

[stickty111]

This is my end of the year prospect breakdown. These are subject to change if the hockey season resumes. I will start at the bottom at #20 and make my way to the top. There will be a separate post for every prospect. I will try to make one daily. By my criteria, Liljegren and Sandin are still prospects so they will be included in this one. I will also be revealing who I feel took the biggest step, dropped the most, and most underrated prospect and so on.

#14. RHD. Joseph Duszak
Overview
One of the high risk high rewards prospects in the top 20. I originally had Duszak at #13, and the next prospect on this list at this number, but changed it up when I looked at the age of of Duszak, and then considered that the next prospect has a higher floor and higher chance of making the NHL, even if the offensive upside isn’t as high. Duszak was signed by the Leafs after his last season in college in the 18/19 season. He has a tremendous last year in College scoring 16 goals and adding 31 helpers for 47 points in 37 games. He played 6 total games with the Marlies in the regular season and playoffs combined that year, but lost out in the battle for playoff spots to 2 of the guys ahead of him on this list. This season, Duszak was fantastic for the Growlers, and was near PPG for the Marlies in the games he played. Duszak however will be 23 starting next season, and has yet to establish himself as a full time member, so time is running out for Duszak despite the strong production. Next season becomes really crucial for him to be a focal point on the Marlies, and to improve on his biggest weakness which will be analyzed in the talent analysis section.

Stats
2019/2020
ECHL
GP: 34
Goals: 9
Assists: 26
Points: 35
Rating: +8

AHL
GP: 23
Goals: 3
Assists: 15
Points: 18
Rating: -11

Statistical Analysis
Since I already posted the stats for Duszak’s college season last year, and he only played limited games for the Marlies that season as well, I will only focus on this season. As mentioned in the overview, Duszak was amazing with the Growlers and showed he is too good for the league, and then called up to the Marlies where he was great production wise. With injuries and call ups to players like Sandin and Liljegren to the NHL, Duszak was given a more prominent role and PP1 time where he produced at a nice clip.

Talent Analysis
Breakdown of grades:
1- Poor
2- Below average
3- Average
4- Good
5- Great

Player Grades: Present/Future
Skating: 4/4
Shot: 3.5/3.5
Puck Skills: 4/4
Compete: 3.5/3.5
Defence: 1.5/2
Smarts/IQ: 3/3
Note: Puck skills includes passing ability, puck control and creating

Duszak is a very solid skater. This is one of his best attributes, but might be behind the other aspect that is coming up. Duszak’s edgework and his ability to move around opposing players, he sticks out. I love his skating especially when he has the puck. He can hang on to the puck and make subtle moves to avoid danger.

This is Duszak’s best tool. His offensive ability is really good. Whether it’s setting up plays with his great passing, or even finishing up plays, the guy will put up numbers as he already has in the pro level. His shot I would classify as above average. He can shoot from the point and goalies need to be ready. Even just ignoring his overall offense, I’m a big fan of his ability to hold on to the puck especially in the defensive zone. You won’t see him fumble the puck too much, and can hold on to it for long stretches. I remember this one game this season where he had the puck a lot, and his ability to just hang on to it and just wait before making a play with it.

I like his effort. He certainly competes in all zones, and I don’t really see a drop off from the offensive zone to the defensive zone. He also known to be motivated kid who wants to improve his game.

Now for the not so good stuff on Duszak. He is an abysmal defensive player. Growlers fans were saying while his offense is elite, he is a defensive nightmare. This is one of the reasons why Leafs management weren’t calling him up earlier to the Marlies despite his ability on offense. That should give everyone a good indication where he is defensively. 1.5 might seem harsh, but that’s just reality. I might even make the case it pretty much wipes out what he does on offense. The reason I have him this high is because his offense is so good, so if he can become even average, we have a real player here. I don’t see that happening as you can see from the FV being 2 on defence.

Is it an IQ problem? Honestly, No I don’t think so. His rating of 3 comes mostly from his offense, but I think he knows what he is looking to do in his own zone, but the excecution is all over the place. He is a pretty smart player on the ice and his decisions are pretty solid I find.

My future projection: His offensive ability is nice, but his defensive game just isn’t up to par to make him an NHL player. However if Barrie can be an NHL player with the same game, so maybe Duszak can too

NHL Player? No, but not completely out of the question.
Thoughts @SeaOfBlue? I know @Kiwi already calls him an exciting player on both ends which is true

 

[Kiwi]

This is my end of the year prospect breakdown. These are subject to change if the hockey season resumes. I will start at the bottom at #20 and make my way to the top. There will be a separate post for every prospect. I will try to make one daily. By my criteria, Liljegren and Sandin are still prospects so they will be included in this one. I will also be revealing who I feel took the biggest step, dropped the most, and most underrated prospect and so on.

#14. RHD. Joseph Duszak
Overview
One of the high risk high rewards prospects in the top 20. I originally had Duszak at #13, and the next prospect on this list at this number, but changed it up when I looked at the age of of Duszak, and then considered that the next prospect has a higher floor and higher chance of making the NHL, even if the offensive upside isn’t as high. Duszak was signed by the Leafs after his last season in college in the 18/19 season. He has a tremendous last year in College scoring 16 goals and adding 31 helpers for 47 points in 37 games. He played 6 total games with the Marlies in the regular season and playoffs combined that year, but lost out in the battle for playoff spots to 2 of the guys ahead of him on this list. This season, Duszak was fantastic for the Growlers, and was near PPG for the Marlies in the games he played. Duszak however will be 23 starting next season, and has yet to establish himself as a full time member, so time is running out for Duszak despite the strong production. Next season becomes really crucial for him to be a focal point on the Marlies, and to improve on his biggest weakness which will be analyzed in the talent analysis section.

Stats
2019/2020
ECHL
GP: 34
Goals: 9
Assists: 26
Points: 35
Rating: +8

AHL
GP: 23
Goals: 3
Assists: 15
Points: 18
Rating: -11

Statistical Analysis
Since I already posted the stats for Duszak’s college season last year, and he only played limited games for the Marlies that season as well, I will only focus on this season. As mentioned in the overview, Duszak was amazing with the Growlers and showed he is too good for the league, and then called up to the Marlies where he was great production wise. With injuries and call ups to players like Sandin and Liljegren to the NHL, Duszak was given a more prominent role and PP1 time where he produced at a nice clip.

Talent Analysis
Breakdown of grades:
1- Poor
2- Below average
3- Average
4- Good
5- Great

Player Grades: Present/Future
Skating: 4/4
Shot: 3.5/3.5
Puck Skills: 4/4
Compete: 3.5/3.5
Defence: 1.5/2
Smarts/IQ: 3/3
Note: Puck skills includes passing ability, puck control and creating

Duszak is a very solid skater. This is one of his best attributes, but might be behind the other aspect that is coming up. Duszak’s edgework and his ability to move around opposing players, he sticks out. I love his skating especially when he has the puck. He can hang on to the puck and make subtle moves to avoid danger.

This is Duszak’s best tool. His offensive ability is really good. Whether it’s setting up plays with his great passing, or even finishing up plays, the guy will put up numbers as he already has in the pro level. His shot I would classify as above average. He can shoot from the point and goalies need to be ready. Even just ignoring his overall offense, I’m a big fan of his ability to hold on to the puck especially in the defensive zone. You won’t see him fumble the puck too much, and can hold on to it for long stretches. I remember this one game this season where he had the puck a lot, and his ability to just hang on to it and just wait before making a play with it.

I like his effort. He certainly competes in all zones, and I don’t really see a drop off from the offensive zone to the defensive zone. He also known to be motivated kid who wants to improve his game.

Now for the not so good stuff on Duszak. He is an abysmal defensive player. Growlers fans were saying while his offense is elite, he is a defensive nightmare. This is one of the reasons why Leafs management weren’t calling him up earlier to the Marlies despite his ability on offense. That should give everyone a good indication where he is defensively. 1.5 might seem harsh, but that’s just reality. I might even make the case it pretty much wipes out what he does on offense. The reason I have him this high is because his offense is so good, so if he can become even average, we have a real player here. I don’t see that happening as you can see from the FV being 2 on defence.

Is it an IQ problem? Honestly, No I don’t think so. His rating of 3 comes mostly from his offense, but I think he knows what he is looking to do in his own zone, but the excecution is all over the place. He is a pretty smart player on the ice and his decisions are pretty solid I find.

My future projection: His offensive ability is nice, but his defensive game just isn’t up to par to make him an NHL player. However if Barrie can be an NHL player with the same game, so maybe Duszak can too

NHL Player? No, but not completely out of the question.
Thoughts @SeaOfBlue? I know @Kiwi already calls him an exciting player on both ends which is true

He's more bipolar than the entire fan base combined

He has a mix of excellent tools with good offensive instincts, so he piles on the points and looks like an absolute champion with the puck on his stick, in combination with some of the most horrific defensive play I've ever seen at any level and I want to strangle him when we don't have possession of the puck

Honestly Stickty, I think we need negative numbers to adequately describe his defensive ability , its easily a -1.5

I enjoy watching him since it's bloody entertaining either way but he's a coach killer, if you look at his age in combination with the holes in his game (which you could drive a semi through) it's hard to see him becoming an NHL player

The best we can hope for is a massively sheltered #6D who runs your top PP unit and not much else imo, there isn't a ton of demand for that around the league however

 

[deletethis]

My attempt at rankings.

With no North America pro hockey experience:
1. Nick Robertson - NHL level skating, NHL level shot, maybe high end, maybe something a little more modest
2. Alex Barbanov - strong on his skates, looks like a finished product
3. Michael Abramov - Quality D+1 year, scoring with marginal support.
4. Nick Abruzzese - The Leafs have never drafted a forward who had a better freshman NCAA season than this player.
5. SDA - Skilled but unusual prospect. Being a pattern seeker, I defy anyone to find a significant NHLer who couldn't crack 20 goals at the junior level
6. Filip Kral - Skating looks projectable with work.
7. Pontus Holmberg - Always trust the Swedish sleeper picks.
8. Ryan O'Connell - I prefer his mobility to any of the Finnish defense draft picks.
9. J.D. Greenway - Brother is in the NHL and he has nice mobility. This switching college thing isn't usually a great sign.
10. Mikko Kokkonen - The level he is currently playing at is impressive. I'm not optimistic about his skating, it's got a long way to go. I suspect that he interviewed well and has a lot of on-ice smarts.
HM: Mike Koster - I can see his skating at the pro level. Very underwhelming numbers for the USHL.

With NA pro hockey experience:
1. Rasmus Sandin - Skilled, confident, combative with tendencies to create trouble for himself on the ice when it isn't necessary.
2. Timothy Liljegren - Skilled, physically solid, a bit passive, a bit of a slower study, a bit unfair to compare him to the faster rising Sandin, still may be the more valuable than any other prospect due to his handedness
3. Egor Korshkov - Produced well in his first AHL season, likes to mix it up a bit, seems up to NA pro hockey speed
4. Joseph Woll - Goalies can take a lot of time, it's a big step from the NCAA to the AHL for goalies
5. Adam Brooks - Better than some recognize, valuable position to fill (C), should be an extra player on the Leafs at the start of next season
6. Mac Hollowell - Good skills, good smarts, smart body position in the corners but he's so slight. I have my doubts about him at the NHL level.
7. Joseph Duzsak - Offensive defender who is a train wreck defensively at the AHL level thus far. Right hand D prospects are more valuable.
8. Jesper Lindgren - I wouldn't be shocked that in the end he has the best career of the 6 thru 8 trio of right handed D. Trust the training and the scout.
9. Jeremy Bracco - Last fall he would have been #3. Probably gonzo from the organization. Challenged to be more than a perimeter playmaker this past season and the season went completely south.
10. Kristian Rubins - Modest slow developing defense prospect. Keefe trusted him immediately, so there's that. Long reach and a large body still means something for defenders.
HM: Ian Scott - Who knows? Woll wasn't a world beater this past season. The opportunity might be there for Scott if he's healthy.

 

[grapes55]

I think Burke's last Leaf lineup had Orr, Brown, McLaren, Phaneuf and Fraser. This years Leafs team would piss themselves in front of those soft guys. I agree they were bad but it had more to do with a low octane offence that couldn't carry the above scrubs. Boz was not a top line center. JVR was very much a complimentary piece, and Kessel was not Jagr. Remember how hot the Leafs were after Brad Richards? All we wanted back then was legit firepower in the top 6 but ownership would not allow itself to draft where those players were available. .

I don't know about that, I think that having though guys who couldn't really play wasn't helpful. It was fun watching them beat the crap out of other teams but having a 4th line that can't take a regular shift is not really a formula for success

 

[Knies iT]

Shoutout to Joseph Pizzimenti for pumping out these vids during quarantine.



I know people love to cite the low percentage of NHLers with <20 goals in junior, but his passing and vision are pretty special. I wish he adopted a more aggressive, north-south style because he has the sneaky speed to do it. Haven't seen a prospect this unwilling to shoot the puck in a while.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Shoutout to Joseph Pizzimenti for pumping out these vids during quarantine.



I know people love to cite the low percentage of NHLers with <20 goals in junior, but his passing and vision are pretty special. I wish he adopted a more aggressive, north-south style because he has the sneaky speed to do it. Haven't seen a prospect this unwilling to shoot the puck in a while.

Why shoot when you can pass it to one of the best goal scorers in CHL history?

SDA scored some nice goals. He has a shot that can put it in the net. He won't put up 30 goals or anything but he should have been getting double digits consistently at least.

 

[weems]

Shoutout to Joseph Pizzimenti for pumping out these vids during quarantine.



I know people love to cite the low percentage of NHLers with <20 goals in junior, but his passing and vision are pretty special. I wish he adopted a more aggressive, north-south style because he has the sneaky speed to do it. Haven't seen a prospect this unwilling to shoot the puck in a while.

Looks like the perfect type of project to have play a few seasons in the minors while getting stronger and learning to play a pro style game.

With the game trending towards speed and skill, he has a much greater chance at making it than in the past.

Still a longshot but love drafting these high skilled players.

 

[stickty111]

This is my end of the year prospect breakdown. These are subject to change if the hockey season resumes. I will start at the bottom at #20 and make my way to the top. There will be a separate post for every prospect. I will try to make one daily. By my criteria, Liljegren and Sandin are still prospects so they will be included in this one. I will also be revealing who I feel took the biggest step, dropped the most, and most underrated prospect and so on.

#13. LHD. Filip Kral
Overview
One of those mid round fallers that team’s snag up when the prospect should have gone higher, and personally one of my favorites. Kral was drafted in the 5th round at 149th overall in the 5th round. He was projected to go a round or 2 before, so Leafs did well getting him where they did. I moved up Karl to #13 after having him at #14 in the beginning, and then today wrestled with the fact about putting him higher. I thought about as high 11, but left him here seeing the 2 ahead of him already have pro experience, even though Kral’s chances are higher to make the NHL. Kral had a solid draft year before suffering a major injury which caused him to be out until November in his D+1. He has a solid year that season despite playing second fiddle to Ty Smith. Kral settled in as a 2nd pairing defenseman as a result on the Chiefs. He went back for his overage season this year, and was one of the better defensemen in the league as should be expected. There was even talk he was outplaying Ty Smith whatever that means. The Leafs signed him to a deserved ELC recently, as he turns pro next season. So far, Kral is performing as expected for a mid round pick, and now the test comes with the Marlies, and we should have better idea on him as a prospect. He is a solid B prospect to have, but if he is a piece Leafs can use in the future, we will know that in the next 2 seasons.

Stats
2018/2019
WHL
GP: 47
Goals: 10
Assists: 26
Points: 36
Rating: +17

2019/2020
WHL
GP: 53
Goals: 12
Assists: 37
Points: 49
Rating: +18

Statistical Analysis
He had a solid D+1 season. The numbers might not looks great and you probably want more, but when you take into account that he was out several months, played on PP2 and on the 2nd defensive pairing, that’s impressive production. There was a sour point though as he managed just 2 points in 12 games in the playoffs. This season his production really increased to near PPG as should be the case. He dominated statistically despite being on the 2nd pair again in some parts of the season. Kral’s primary points went up in every category. His EV P1/GP increased from 0.29 to 0.32, along with his PP primary points/GP which increased from 0.15 to 0.17, for an overall increase of primary points from 0.45 to 0.51. All this despite his ES ice time decreasing from the previous season. When looking at the underlying numbers, he always ranks high in terms of zone exits and entries, plus entry defence at his blueline. He has been one of the highest players in Mitch Brown’s analysis.

Talent Analysis
Breakdown of grades:
1- Poor
2- Below average
3- Average
4- Good
5- Great

Player Grades: Present/Future
Skating: 4/4
Shot: 4/4
Puck Skills: 3.5/3.5
Compete: 3/3
Defence: 3/3.5
Smarts/IQ: 3.5/3.5
Note: Puck skills includes passing ability, puck control and creating

Kral is very mobile defenseman, and overall a solid skater albeit without explosiveness. His edge work is really good as he can evade pressure with ease, and moves around well east and west. He uses subtle fakes or changes speeds to deal with pressure. When he gets going, his acceleration is good, but his start up speed is only average though so I didn't put him higher It shouldn’t be a problem in pro, but adding more speed when he starts up would really make a huge difference. The positive is that his edges are really good, so he should be able to handle the increased forcheck in the pros.

I like Kral’s game offensively. I wouldn’t call it elite by any means, but his offense comes from being simple. His passing is his best tool offensively, and it helps him start up many rushes on breakouts. He can make some great passes in the offensive zone now and then, but mostly his passing is simple but extremely accurate. There isn’t really a wow factor here, but his passing is just really solid and he can control the puck well where he rarely loses it, and then he makes a very good 1st pass. He can rush the puck to and he is solid in that as aspect, but he prefers the 1st pass route. This is why he is a zone exit stats darling. He always ranks near the top in zone entries. I would have graded his shot as a 3 last year which is average, but it has certainly shown a lot of improvement this season. He has scored some goals off beauty snipes this season from near the blueline/slot. The tools are not amazing so it's fair to see how much offense he generates in pro hockey, even his shot is good but not impressivly strongbut I think there is enough here to put numbers

I like his effort. He certainly competes in all zones, and I don’t really see a drop off from the offensive zone to the defensive zone. Pretty much cut and paste from other majority players you see who work as want them too.

Going into to the draft year, there were defensive issues and you could make the case he was probably in the 2.5 range. Fast forward to now, and he requires work still, but there has been improvement. He is another defenseman in the system whose best defensive work comes just before his blueline. He is really good at defending his blueline. He get cut off players, and force them to the corner of the blueline. He has an active stick which he uses while dealing with incoming players. This is shown In the entry stats where he is always near the top, as his numbers on breaking up rushes are high. When it comes to defending In his zone, that’s where he has some issues. The criticism last season was that he puck watched way too much, and we know that is the worst thing you can do as a defenseman. This season he improved there, but still does it more then you want him too. His 3 rating comes from his line defending which is fantastic, but he is below average in his zone, so it comes down as average. This is probably where you say Travis Dermott is with the Leafs.

He is a smart player. He makes the right decisions with the puck, and doesn’t force certain plays like rushing the puck carelessly. He sticks to what he is good at. His IQ is not an issue on defence, but just needs to continue to improve with more experience. I would be worried if he showed no growth from the past season, but the fact he has shown improvement tells that smarts is not an issue.

My future projection: Above average tools all over the board with good skating, and defends the way the organization likes should get you somewhere. He will need likely a year or two, but I think he becomes a legit piece for the Leafs.

NHL Player? Yes, but should have a better idea in 2 years.
What do you think @Kiwi, @SeaOfBlue, and introducing @weems here as well. Any thing you disagree with on the talent analysis.

 

[Kiwi]

This is my end of the year prospect breakdown. These are subject to change if the hockey season resumes. I will start at the bottom at #20 and make my way to the top. There will be a separate post for every prospect. I will try to make one daily. By my criteria, Liljegren and Sandin are still prospects so they will be included in this one. I will also be revealing who I feel took the biggest step, dropped the most, and most underrated prospect and so on.

#13. LHD. Filip Kral
Overview
One of those mid round fallers that team’s snag up when the prospect should have gone higher, and personally one of my favorites. Kral was drafted in the 5th round at 149th overall in the 5th round. He was projected to go a round or 2 before, so Leafs did well getting him where they did. I moved up Karl to #13 after having him at #14 in the beginning, and then today wrestled with the fact about putting him higher. I thought about as high 11, but left him here seeing the 2 ahead of him already have pro experience, even though Kral’s chances are higher to make the NHL. Kral had a solid draft year before suffering a major injury which caused him to be out until November in his D+1. He has a solid year that season despite playing second fiddle to Ty Smith. Kral settled in as a 2nd pairing defenseman as a result on the Chiefs. He went back for his overage season this year, and was one of the better defensemen in the league as should be expected. There was even talk he was outplaying Ty Smith whatever that means. The Leafs signed him to a deserved ELC recently, as he turns pro next season. So far, Kral is performing as expected for a mid round pick, and now the test comes with the Marlies, and we should have better idea on him as a prospect. He is a solid B prospect to have, but if he is a piece Leafs can use in the future, we will know that in the next 2 seasons.

Stats
2018/2019
WHL
GP: 47
Goals: 10
Assists: 26
Points: 36
Rating: +17

2019/2020
WHL
GP: 53
Goals: 12
Assists: 37
Points: 49
Rating: +18

Statistical Analysis
He had a solid D+1 season. The numbers might not looks great and you probably want more, but when you take into account that he was out several months, played on PP2 and on the 2nd defensive pairing, that’s impressive production. There was a sour point though as he managed just 2 points in 12 games in the playoffs. This season his production really increased to near PPG as should be the case. He dominated statistically despite being on the 2nd pair again in some parts of the season. Kral’s primary points went up in every category. His EV P1/GP increased from 0.29 to 0.32, along with his PP primary points/GP which increased from 0.15 to 0.17, for an overall increase of primary points from 0.45 to 0.51. All this despite his ES ice time decreasing from the previous season. When looking at the underlying numbers, he always ranks high in terms of zone exits and entries, plus entry defence at his blueline. He has been one of the highest players in Mitch Brown’s analysis.

Talent Analysis
Breakdown of grades:
1- Poor
2- Below average
3- Average
4- Good
5- Great

Player Grades: Present/Future
Skating: 4/4
Shot: 4/4
Puck Skills: 3.5/3.5
Compete: 3/3
Defence: 3/3.5
Smarts/IQ: 3.5/3.5
Note: Puck skills includes passing ability, puck control and creating

Kral is very mobile defenseman, and overall a solid skater albeit without explosiveness. His edge work is really good as he can evade pressure with ease, and moves around well east and west. He uses subtle fakes or changes speeds to deal with pressure. When he gets going, his acceleration is good, but his start up speed is only average though so I didn't put him higher It shouldn’t be a problem in pro, but adding more speed when he starts up would really make a huge difference. The positive is that his edges are really good, so he should be able to handle the increased forcheck in the pros.

I like Kral’s game offensively. I wouldn’t call it elite by any means, but his offense comes from being simple. His passing is his best tool offensively, and it helps him start up many rushes on breakouts. He can make some great passes in the offensive zone now and then, but mostly his passing is simple but extremely accurate. There isn’t really a wow factor here, but his passing is just really solid and he can control the puck well where he rarely loses it, and then he makes a very good 1st pass. He can rush the puck to and he is solid in that as aspect, but he prefers the 1st pass route. This is why he is a zone exit stats darling. He always ranks near the top in zone entries. I would have graded his shot as a 3 last year which is average, but it has certainly shown a lot of improvement this season. He has scored some goals off beauty snipes this season from near the blueline/slot. The tools are not amazing so it's fair to see how much offense he generates in pro hockey, even his shot is good but not impressivly strongbut I think there is enough here to put numbers

I like his effort. He certainly competes in all zones, and I don’t really see a drop off from the offensive zone to the defensive zone. Pretty much cut and paste from other majority players you see who work as want them too.

Going into to the draft year, there were defensive issues and you could make the case he was probably in the 2.5 range. Fast forward to now, and he requires work still, but there has been improvement. He is another defenseman in the system whose best defensive work comes just before his blueline. He is really good at defending his blueline. He get cut off players, and force them to the corner of the blueline. He has an active stick which he uses while dealing with incoming players. This is shown In the entry stats where he is always near the top, as his numbers on breaking up rushes are high. When it comes to defending In his zone, that’s where he has some issues. The criticism last season was that he puck watched way too much, and we know that is the worst thing you can do as a defenseman. This season he improved there, but still does it more then you want him too. His 3 rating comes from his line defending which is fantastic, but he is below average in his zone, so it comes down as average. This is probably where you say Travis Dermott is with the Leafs.

He is a smart player. He makes the right decisions with the puck, and doesn’t force certain plays like rushing the puck carelessly. He sticks to what he is good at. His IQ is not an issue on defence, but just needs to continue to improve with more experience. I would be worried if he showed no growth from the past season, but the fact he has shown improvement tells that smarts is not an issue.

My future projection: Above average tools all over the board with good skating, and defends the way the organization likes should get you somewhere. He will need likely a year or two, but I think he becomes a legit piece for the Leafs.

NHL Player? Yes, but should have a better idea in 2 years.
What do you think @Kiwi, @SeaOfBlue, and introducing @weems here as well. Any thing you disagree with on the talent analysis.

I remember watching him in international play and I was extremely underwhelmed with his defensive game

He looked better in junior but against that level of competition as a D+2 I'd expect him to

Tools aren't going to hold him back, they looked solid to me but he needs a more aggressive mindset when his team doesn't have the puck, that will hold him back

I'm looking forward to him playing on the Marlies and checking him out against stronger competition

 

[stickty111]

I remember watching him in international play and I was extremely underwhelmed with his defensive game

He looked better in junior but against that level of competition as a D+2 I'd expect him to

Tools aren't going to hold him back, they looked solid to me but he needs a more aggressive mindset when his team doesn't have the puck, that will hold him back

I'm looking forward to him playing on the Marlies and checking him out against stronger competition

Don't disagree really but I do see him getting better defensively. He has multiple tools which are certainly interesting.

 

[Kiwi]

Don't disagree really but I do see him getting better defensively. He has multiple tools which are certainly interesting.

Reminded me a bit of Zaitsev, tools were there but the mindset just wasn't aggressive enough use them effectively

Step up in the neutral zone, hold your Blue line, keep a tighter gap and don't back in as your first default option

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Reminded me a bit of Zaitsev, tools were there but the mindset just wasn't aggressive enough use them effectively

Step up in the neutral zone, hold your Blue line, keep a tighter gap and don't back in as your first default option

It is funny because Spokane usually plays a very aggressive style of hockey. Not aggressive as in run you through the boards but aggressive as in not giving time or space for guys to do anything nor being afraid to go into dirty areas. Definitely were not afraid to have their defenders pinch either or make a risky play to hold the line either.

If he is put with Lindgren or a reliable UFA, I think he would be more free to play that aggressive style. If he is playing with Hollowell or Duszak, maybe not as much because they will want to do the same thing.

 

[Kiwi]

It is funny because Spokane usually plays a very aggressive style of hockey. Not aggressive as in run you through the boards but aggressive as in not giving time or space for guys to do anything nor being afraid to go into dirty areas. Definitely were not afraid to have their defenders pinch either or make a risky play to hold the line either.

If he is put with Lindgren or a reliable UFA, I think he would be more free to play that aggressive style. If he is playing with Hollowell or Duszak, maybe not as much because they will want to do the same thing.

I didn't mind his offensive game SeaOfBlue, he was willing to take calculated risks to create and he distributes the puck quite nicely

I just didn't like how passive he was in the defensive game, you don't have to hit but you do need to take away time, space and options in transition at higher levels to be effective imo

I'd like to see him paired with a vet as well, somebody that's going to let him learn what's possible offensively as well as allow him to learn how aggressive he can be before he gets burned defensively against improved competition

The last thing he needs is every defensive mistake ending up in the back of his net, that just breeds indecisiveness imo

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I didn't mind his offensive game SeaOfBlue, he was willing to take calculated risks to create and he distributes the puck quite nicely

I just didn't like how passive he was in the defensive game, you don't have to hit but you do need to take away time, space and options in transition at higher levels to be effective imo

I'd like to see him paired with a vet as well, somebody that's going to let him learn what's possible offensively as well as allow him to learn how aggressive he can be before he gets burned defensively against improved competition

The last thing he needs is every defensive mistake ending up in the back of his net, that just breeds indecisiveness imo

I see what you mean. I haven't watched too many full games for Spokane, but I have not had any issues with his defensive game. I also did not have any issue with Zaitsev's defensive game. Either way, it will be more telling if he has an issues when he gets to the AHL anyways. I think it will be easier to tell a guy to be willing to be more aggressive than to tell someone to tone back their game (not that I have quantifiable proof of that, just based on experience) especially if it is a big part of what makes them effective (like Duszak).

We will probably sign a UFA veteran for the AHL who could also play in the NHL, but I do not know if Kral is going to be stapled to him. He will likely play with Hollowell and Lindgren quite a bit, and may also get some time with Duszak too (although I expect Duszak to be stapled to a veteran LD we sign to replace Kivihalme, or someone like Rubins).

 

[Kiwi]

I see what you mean. I haven't watched too many full games for Spokane, but I have not had any issues with his defensive game. I also did not have any issue with Zaitsev's defensive game. Either way, it will be more telling if he has an issues when he gets to the AHL anyways. I think it will be easier to tell a guy to be willing to be more aggressive than to tell someone to tone back their game (not that I have quantifiable proof of that, just based on experience) especially if it is a big part of what makes them effective (like Duszak).

We will probably sign a UFA veteran for the AHL who could also play in the NHL, but I do not know if Kral is going to be stapled to him. He will likely play with Hollowell and Lindgren quite a bit, and may also get some time with Duszak too (although I expect Duszak to be stapled to a veteran LD we sign to replace Kivihalme, or someone like Rubins).

I hated Zaitsev defensively, he could skate with anybody but his passivity and default to backing towards his goaltender instead of holding his ground really pissed me off

I'd put him with Lindgren, he isn't flashy but he is solid and he won't hang the kid out to dry if things don't go perfectly, Hollowell and Duszak need a bit of veteran insulation as well if last season's any guide
Especially Duzcak

 

[Martin Skoula]

Why shoot when you can pass it to one of the best goal scorers in CHL history?

SDA scored some nice goals. He has a shot that can put it in the net. He won't put up 30 goals or anything but he should have been getting double digits consistently at least.

There have been thousands of high end playmakers in the CHL, the ones that make the NHL all score goals at a certain minimal rate with very few exceptions.

That being said, our system has been turning small soft playmakers into well rounded bottom 6ers fairly well. If SDA can buy in, a Timashov or Brooks with elite vision and hands is never a bad thing to have.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

There have been thousands of high end playmakers in the CHL, the ones that make the NHL all score goals at a certain minimal rate with very few exceptions.

That being said, our system has been turning small soft playmakers into well rounded bottom 6ers fairly well. If SDA can buy in, a Timashov or Brooks with elite vision and hands is never a bad thing to have.

Yes but what I am saying is that most, if not all, of those high end playmakers never had one of the best scorers ever to pass it off to either. Ultimately the goal is to win the game, and if winning the game means giving the puck to Robertson, that is what SDA is going to do. Maybe now that he will be on a line with guys who won't be high end scorers, he will be more inclined to shoot the puck himself.

As little as the guy scored, he never really shot the puck either. He only has 374 shots in his entire OHL career. Nick Robertson had 255 this year alone, and he played 9 fewer games than SDA this year.

 

[stickty111]

This is my end of the year prospect breakdown. These are subject to change if the hockey season resumes. I will start at the bottom at #20 and make my way to the top. There will be a separate post for every prospect. I will try to make one daily. By my criteria, Liljegren and Sandin are still prospects so they will be included in this one. I will also be revealing who I feel took the biggest step, dropped the most, and most underrated prospect and so on.

#12. RHD. Mac Hollowell
Overview
He is another one of my favourites in the system. I considered him as high as #11, but the player at 10 has proven more at the AHL level. Hollowell was drafted as an overager in the 2018 drafted in the 4th round at 118th overall. Obviously when you’re an overager and headed back to junior the next season, your expected to be a big time producer and be one of the best at your position, that’s what Hollowell did as he dominated for the Grey Hounds in the OHL. His efforts got rewarded with an ELC by the Leafs. After the season, he played 9 games for the Marlies in the playoffs, and beat out Duszak for a full time spot on the playoff defence, where he got praise by his former coach in Sheldon Keefe. This season he began with the Growlers, where he played well with decent production. With injuries and callups, Hollowell was called up to the Marlies where he played decently. Now 21 and going towards 22, Hollowell still has time on his side, but you probably want him to establish himself in the AHL, so he can make a case if he is an NHL option for the Leafs.

Stats
2018/2019
OHL
GP: 64
Goals: 24
Assists: 53
Points: 77
Rating: +26

2019/2020
ECHL
GP: 19
Goals: 3
Assists: 10
Points: 13
Rating: +5

AHL
GP: 34
Goals: 3
Assists: 9
Points: 12
Rating: -9

Statistical Analysis
As shown in the production, Hollowell lit the OHL on fire as should have been expected. He was attacking with the puck, and really showed off the talent he has offensively. In the playoffs with the Marlies, he tried to play a safe game which is fine all though it doesn’t suit him as a player. He and Duszak were in competition for a spot in the playoffs, and Hollowell beat him out, and even played with Rasmsu Sandin as they were somewhat familiar with each playing with the Grey Hounds. Hollowell was pretty solid and didn’t look out of place in those tense games. With the Growlers this season, he was the Hollowell of the OHL where he pushed the play offensively and attacking which is what he should be doing, and his point totals signified he was playing more to his type of player. He was called up to the Marlies, and started to play safe again. In the playoffs it made sense, but not in this situation. This really takes away his strengths, and doesn’t make the impact that he should. Later on, he started to play more towards his talent, and this is what he has to be doing. This shift towards safe play with the Marlies is shown in his point totals.

Talent Analysis
Breakdown of grades:
1- Poor
2- Below average
3- Average
4- Good
5- Great

Player Grades: Present/Future
Skating: 5/5
Shot: 2.5/3
Puck Skills: 4/4
Compete: 3.5/3.5
Defence: 2/3
Smarts/IQ: 3/3
Note: Puck skills includes passing ability, puck control and creating

Hollowell is an elite skater, and the best skater in the organization at least from the prospects, and I’m not sure it really is close. Whether it’s edge work or just speed, he is a fantastic skater, and can easily beat pressure from opposing players. He can beat you laterally, or just by speed. There is a reason he ranked high in terms of zone exits and entries. There is nothing else I can really say here. He is the 1st prospect on my list to grade a 5 on one of the aspects.

He has a very solid offensive package. All tough if you just rank him on his talent with the puck, I probably put him in the 3.5 range, but the 4 comes from his vision to get to the right areas of the ice on offense. His decision making in the offensive zone is really nice, and he creates a lot of opportunities with that despite his shot not being all that special. He will score not really by power, but more by finesse and smarts, and he scored a highlight reel goal with the Marlies by doing exactly that. His passing is solid in transition or in the O zone.

I like his effort. He certainly competes in all zones, and I don’t really see a drop off from the offensive zone to the defensive zone. Pretty much cut and paste from other majority players you see who work as want them too. He is known to work really hard in trying to improve his game.

Honestly to me, 2 is low too me and seriously considered putting a 2.5 on defence for Hollowell. However, 2.5 would mean he is just slightly below average which I wouldn’t agree it, so 2 is okay. I see him becoming average defensively at maturity which may seem high, but everything I have seen, I don’t think he is as bad defensively as some would say. He is clearly ahead of Duszak which isn’t saying much, but he is decently better. He is aggressive at defending in the neutral zone which is good, but I found him to be at times erratic where he would be slightly out of position. In the defensive zone, I didn’t find to be terrible but he clearly needs work. A lot of the issues are because of a lack of strength, and honestly I don’t dock a player for not having strength.

Hollowell makes great decisions on offense. The way he can find the good areas really improve his value as a player. Even his decisions in the defensive zone are okay. He seems to know what he is doing, simply needs more experience and strength.

My future projection: He has a standout tool and good tools on offense. He just needs to play the game according to his strengths like he did on offense. I think that mentality will come, and that will get him to the NHL

NHL Player? Yes, but the change in mentality needs to change back soon.
Thoughts @Kiwi and @SeaOfBlue? I think Hollowell has a higher chance to make the NHL then Duszak.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

IQ should be higher 3.5 or 4. Shot, compete and defensive ability could possibly be a future rating that is 0.5 higher.

His upside is a #4 PPQB who may be able to play on the 2nd PK, but I think if he makes the NHL, it is likely as one of those solid 16-18 minute bottom pairing guys.