Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - Who ordered a taxi?

[notbias]

The depth is there, some high-end talent, but the guaranteed prospects are lacking.

Really excited to see how some of the lower-ranked prospects develop. Ovchinnikov, Koster, Miettinen, and Knies are all really intriguing.

 

[SprDaVE]

 

[Lil Tuzzi Bert]

Shouldn't have been passed over once let alone twice. Great numbers

 

[Burnie97]

 

[SprDaVE]

 

[Twine Tickler]

The depth is there, some high-end talent, but the guaranteed prospects are lacking.

Really excited to see how some of the lower-ranked prospects develop. Ovchinnikov, Koster, Miettinen, and Knies are all really intriguing.

Honestly I think there is enough of that 2nd tier prospect that we will at least see 1 or 2 of them have an impact in the League.

Knies
Miettinen
Koster
Ovchinikov
Niemela
Hirvonen
Kokkenen
Holmberg
Abrusezze
Abramov

The above players are players that I would personally rank with 2nd round potential. That's not necessarily where each player was drafted, but their ceilings have been raised post draft to have a comparable potential to that of a 2nd rounder IMO. This is all interpretive, but that's how I view them.

So now if we were to look at the average success rate of players selected in the 2nd round, with the requirement for success being 200 GP in the NHL from the NHL entry draft of 2006 to 2010 it would give you the following rate:

153 players selected in the 2nd round between 2006-10
46 player played a minimum of 200 NHL games

30% success rate

now we can debate that some teams have better success over other in developing their players, but I really do think we've come a long way in that regard. Our amateur scouting has been excellent in years past. We can also debate the list above of players that I feel have progressed to 2nd round potentials, but if we were to use that list for example, 3 of those players should play at a minimum of 200 NHL games. I think you could easily make a case for a ton of other players as well, I just listed 10 for arguments sake

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Budgell is a really nice pickup. Like Sevigny, he could be more CIS quality than AHL contract quality, but the Leafs picked up two of the best 01' AHL contract candidates playing in the QMJHL.

Lapenna and Hardie are solid 02's to look at as well. Hardie may actually be the best guy you can get out of the OHL right now, but it is a pretty thin crop. He needs some major issues ironed out before he gets even an AHL contract, and needs to bring more than a nice shot. Lapenna is small, so he needs to show he can dominate in spite of his stature.

I don't have much faith in Del Monte and Cato. Seem like fillers. Neither made Brock Otten's top 50 list nor his list of HM's, and that list does not exactly have a ton of top notch candidates on it either. There may be some surprises coming out of the OHL in terms of OA's next year, since few guys played at all, but these two are some of the longest shots out there. There could be some real gems but I don't think these guys are it.

Rochette is our one and only ELC candidate to this point, and he is by far the cream of the crop. While the rest are fighting for AHL contract consideration, he has a legit shot at an ELC.

Fingers crossed we get some strong invites to round off the group. We added some solid filler but I would like more upside than Rochette and maybe Hardie. Especially could use one very promising goalie prospect to look at. Our main prospects are Russians and while Lapenna is not a bad option, we need more (and hopefully better) than just him, even if Scott is (possibly) there too.

 

[Morgs]

It always shocks me how high people are on Abruzzese. Not that I don't really like him and his game, he's just so far behind the average prospect his age at this point so everything needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

Wasn't drafted after playing in a nothing league. Wasn't drafted again after being a D+1 in a league (USHL) a guy his age should have crushed (he didn't), and then finally was drafted by us after crushing that same league, which some [special] players do in their D-2. Still wasn't a real prospect at this point for me. It wasn't until his D+3 where he had a fantastic year and tore it up at Harvard, winning FOTY where imo he actually became a prospect. If a guy is playing in that division he better be going at least around PPG in his D+3. Hard to be a real prospect without producing. He was even better than that. AND THEN with all those good feels, he has a major injury in arguably his most important season to date and doesn't play a game.

I really like his game, I like that he was dominant in a great league, and I have faith he'll become something, but man I've seen him as high as #4 on some people's pools and I just simply don't get it. He's Liljegren's age and we don't know if he'll see AHL ice for another 2-3 years.

 

[stickty111]

It always shocks me how high people are on Abruzzese. Not that I don't really like him and his game, he's just so far behind the average prospect his age at this point so everything needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

Wasn't drafted after playing in a nothing league. Wasn't drafted again after being a D+1 in a league (USHL) a guy his age should have crushed (he didn't), and then finally was drafted by us after crushing that same league, which some [special] players do in their D-2. Still wasn't a real prospect at this point for me. It wasn't until his D+3 where he had a fantastic year and tore it up at Harvard, winning FOTY where imo he actually became a prospect. If a guy is playing in that division he better be going at least around PPG in his D+3. Hard to be a real prospect without producing. He was even better than that. AND THEN with all those good feels, he has a major injury in arguably his most important season to date and doesn't play a game.

I really like his game, I like that he was dominant in a great league, and I have faith he'll become something, but man I've seen him as high as #4 on some people's pools and I just simply don't get it. He's Liljegren's age and we don't know if he'll see AHL ice for another 2-3 years.

Yeah he tends to get overrated a fair amount. I love his IQ and have it at the top of our lists or close to it, and great playmaker, but I have seen him be put ahead of Liljegren and makes no sense. In fact there is a good argument Miettinen should be higher then him.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

Genuinely the pool is actually quite good. It doesn't have a top 5 first round esque prospect like Zegras/Drysdale that makes the group jump out at you - but the depth is really strong.

I think the unfortunate thing about the pool are that so many of the prospects that are intriguing are ones that we have drafted only just recently. Robertson, Amirov, Abruzzese, Abramov, Kokkonen, Niemela, Hirvonen, Miettinen are all drafted in the last 24 months.

Its early of course - but two years after the '16, '17, '18 drafts I wasn't as impressed with the group the way I am now. Can we fast forward 12 months?

 

[zeke]

 

[zeke]

It always shocks me how high people are on Abruzzese. Not that I don't really like him and his game, he's just so far behind the average prospect his age at this point so everything needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

Wasn't drafted after playing in a nothing league. Wasn't drafted again after being a D+1 in a league (USHL) a guy his age should have crushed (he didn't), and then finally was drafted by us after crushing that same league, which some [special] players do in their D-2. Still wasn't a real prospect at this point for me. It wasn't until his D+3 where he had a fantastic year and tore it up at Harvard, winning FOTY where imo he actually became a prospect. If a guy is playing in that division he better be going at least around PPG in his D+3. Hard to be a real prospect without producing. He was even better than that. AND THEN with all those good feels, he has a major injury in arguably his most important season to date and doesn't play a game.

I really like his game, I like that he was dominant in a great league, and I have faith he'll become something, but man I've seen him as high as #4 on some people's pools and I just simply don't get it. He's Liljegren's age and we don't know if he'll see AHL ice for another 2-3 years.

It was that one guy who started that hype train.

Wheeler maybe?

 

[zeke]

Any reason for that Zeke? I guess Abruzzese makes sense because of his age and the development time due to injuries and Covid, by Abramov? He had a great D+1 before the shutdown, and was doing well in D+2 but Covid breaks hurt his momentum.

Not sure his D1 was all that impressive tbh.

 

[Legion34]

Can anyone give me a legit scouting report on Erik kalgren?

dubas has mentioned him a ton of times as someone the leafs are high on and talked about him like he is in future plans.

he is 24 now. Does he actually have a shot?

 

[SprDaVE]

It was that one guy who started that hype train.

Wheeler maybe?

Pretty sure Button had him top 5 for us before the 2020 draft or something. It was weird.

 

[Ashdown2]

Genuinely the pool is actually quite good. It doesn't have a top 5 first round esque prospect like Zegras/Drysdale that makes the group jump out at you - but the depth is really strong.

I think the unfortunate thing about the pool are that so many of the prospects that are intriguing are ones that we have drafted only just recently. Robertson, Amirov, Abruzzese, Abramov, Kokkonen, Niemela, Hirvonen, Miettinen are all drafted in the last 24 months.

Its early of course - but two years after the '16, '17, '18 drafts I wasn't as impressed with the group the way I am now. Can we fast forward 12 months?

lol thats life .... every year we are more excited about the recent guys and then we figure out who they really are 3 -4 years down the line.
95% of players drafted outside the first round dont become regular shift nhl players.

 

[notbias]

lol thats life .... every year we are more excited about the recent guys and then we figure out who they really are 3 -4 years down the line.
95% of players drafted outside the first round dont become regular shift nhl players.

The progression of recent picks has been a lot better than the Hunter drafts, I think it is fair to be more optimistic with this group of prospects.

 

[Morgs]

Not sure his D1 was all that impressive tbh.

It was more impressive due to the team that was around him. The production absolutely was nothing special in a vacuum, but he had 35 more points and 16 more goals than 2nd on his team. He really dominated the Q by himself as a 18 year old.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet, but holy f***. this kid looks good. What a piss missile of a shot. Ears are still ringing

 

[Twine Tickler]

we may not have had a ton of picks this year, but I really think we hit it out of the park with Knies and Voit. Exactly the type of picks I like the team to make from those positions.

Knies to me has a decent floor with his build and skill. I saw some question marks with his skating, but from the highlight packs I have watched on youtube I am not sure its as bad as people make it out to be. His shot is no joke, and a player with his size at 18 years old to have that type of hands is pretty impressive. I really hope he makes the WJC this coming year so that I can get a better look.

Voit is exactly they type of player I love the Leafs drafting late. He is this years Miettenen. Absolute home run potential, but very low floor. I am totally ok with that. The hit rate in the 5th+ rounds is pretty low anyways. I'd far rather go for the fences on those picks vs. trying to land a guy who may play 30 games in the show.

Peska, to be honest I don't really understand. But I totally trust our scouting staff on this one. I find it odd a bit, I feel like there was a solid chance he'd go undrafted and we could have drafted someone else there. But obviously they didn't think that way, I am just going to have to trust them on that. They liked him enough to burn a pick on him.

all in all great draft given the circumstances of not being able to see voit play all year and also having next to no picks

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Hirvonen has 2 goals, Niemela has 2 assists. Dubas did really well getting both of them

 

[LaPlante94]

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet, but holy f***. this kid looks good. What a piss missile of a shot. Ears are still ringing

I know they said he's skated with Matthews but seeing his shot over and over recently kinda shows he has to have been working with whoever Matthews does for his shot. His release and everything just reminds me of Matthews way too much.

 

[stickty111]

Amirov with a pre season goal today too

 

[Twine Tickler]

Amirov with a pre season goal today too

ya it was a dandy....

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Hirvonen with his 2nd hattrick in 5 games lol