Prospect Info: Marlies & Prospects Thread Part VI - Playoff Drive Edition

[Kiwi]

Glad to hear his skating isn't that bad .. No doubt he would need that to keep up in the AHL.

I watched some video of him in his draft year

He was getting hammered by the forecheck and his first few strides weren't explosive

Something changed between his time in the Soo and the AHL because those haven't been issues

Our development staff and Sandin deserve a ton of credit, he solved those issues in a matter of months

 

[biotk]

I would consider Dahlin to be far more than a notch ahead of Sandin. Sandin has exceeded expectations by a lot. Would obviously go much higher in a redraft at this point. But Dahlin already has 39 points this season, as an 18 year old - despite being eased in (played about 18 minutes a game for his first 20 games before that being upped to about 23 minutes a game for his next 20).

I do worry that the expectations for Sandin on this board are going up a lot based on a hot streak. 12 points in 8 games after 12 points in the first 29 games.

Last season in the AHL Dermott started with:
5 points in 18 games, then hit his hot streak of:
12 points in 8 games, after which he was called up, but he did return for a couple games in the AHL regular season, plus the playoffs totaling another
5 points in 16 games.

Hopefully Sandin continues high level production, but it wouldn't surprise me if his production falls back a lot.

 

[IPS]

I would consider Dahlin to be far more than a notch ahead of Sandin. Sandin has exceeded expectations by a lot. Would obviously go much higher in a redraft at this point. But Dahlin already has 39 points this season, as an 18 year old - despite being eased in (played about 18 minutes a game for his first 20 games before that being upped to about 23 minutes a game for his next 20).

I do worry that the expectations for Sandin on this board are going up a lot based on a hot streak. 12 points in 8 games after 12 points in the first 29 games.

Last season in the AHL Dermott started with:
5 points in 18 games, then hit his hot streak of:
12 points in 8 games, after which he was called up, but he did return for a couple games in the AHL regular season, plus the playoffs totaling another
5 points in 16 games.

Hopefully Sandin continues high level production, but it wouldn't surprise me if his production falls back a lot.

If Sandin turns out even half as good as Dahlin we hit the jackpot. Development isn't linear with Sandin types as they are with Dahlin types, I'm kind of half ass expecting Sandin to hit a wall in the future, as you referenced with Dermott.

 

[RoadWarrior]

If Sandin turns out even half as good as Dahlin we hit the jackpot. Development isn't linear with Sandin types as they are with Dahlin types, I'm kind of half ass expecting Sandin to hit a wall in the future, as you referenced with Dermott.

Sandin's wall will be his physical limitations but if he continues working out and getting stronger/faster with his superior IQ the sky is really the limit.

He's already a winning lottery ticket. The only question is the prize.

 

[RoadWarrior]

I would consider Dahlin to be far more than a notch ahead of Sandin. Sandin has exceeded expectations by a lot. Would obviously go much higher in a redraft at this point. But Dahlin already has 39 points this season, as an 18 year old - despite being eased in (played about 18 minutes a game for his first 20 games before that being upped to about 23 minutes a game for his next 20).

I do worry that the expectations for Sandin on this board are going up a lot based on a hot streak. 12 points in 8 games after 12 points in the first 29 games.

Last season in the AHL Dermott started with:
5 points in 18 games, then hit his hot streak of:
12 points in 8 games, after which he was called up, but he did return for a couple games in the AHL regular season, plus the playoffs totaling another
5 points in 16 games.

Hopefully Sandin continues high level production, but it wouldn't surprise me if his production falls back a lot.

Sandin is the all time leading scorer among defensemen under 19 years of age in PPG in the history of the AHL. In other words just about every other player with his development curve is playing in the NHL.

 

[Rich247]

I think it's safe to say Sandin has played his way into being a blue-chip prospect.

Bracco is making a strong case for it. I don't think Lily is far off either.

Means you don't think bracco is a blue chip prospect. Maybe if he lead the Ahl in scoring you will give the kid the credit he has earned. There is no better passer in the Ahl and the kid is the motor that drives the power play.

 

[RoadWarrior]

Means you don't think bracco is a blue chip prospect. Maybe if he lead the Ahl in scoring you will give the kid the credit he has earned. There is no better passer in the Ahl and the kid is the motor that drives the power play. Perhaps you should watch more games and keep your eyes open before you make stupid comments.

Bracco is Marner lite. Not quite as fast in a straight line but just as shifty with similar vision. He should be with the leafs next season in a top 9 role.

 

[biotk]

Sandin is the all time leading scorer among defensemen under 19 years of age in PPG in the history of the AHL. In other words just about every other player with his development curve is playing in the NHL.

Similar stuff was said about Liljegren last year. I was impressed with Liljegren's play last year but felt his production was lacking (still he was the all time leading scorer defensemen under 19 years of age in PPG in the history of the AHL - but this year when many of the other D drafted in his class in the first 3 rounds were finally eligible to play in the AHL they all have higher PPG this year than Liljegren - every single one of them). When you talk about 18 year old D in the AHL you are talking about only 7 players (who played 20 or more games) because the vast majority of player are not eligible. Only one of those 7 has played 200 career NHL games (Lindholm). There is no competition for this. Liljegren is #2, Voynov is #3 and Kylington is #4. Kylington is finally playing some bottom pairing minutes for Calgary as a D+4 (when he is not in the pressbox - played in 2 games during the last month). Voynov played 190 games in the NHL. Fans are now projecting a future for Liljegren along the lines of Stralman or Daley. I think that it will match Kylington's. Has Sandin been great? Absolutely. Does that mean that every other player with his development curve is playing in the NHL? Not at all.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Similar stuff was said about Liljegren last year. I was impressed with Liljegren's play last year but felt his production was lacking (still he was the all time leading scorer defensemen under 19 years of age in PPG in the history of the AHL - but this year when many of the other D drafted in his class in the first 3 rounds were finally eligible to play in the AHL they all have higher PPG this year than Liljegren - every single one of them). When you talk about 18 year old D in the AHL you are talking about only 7 players (who played 20 or more games) because the vast majority of player are not eligible. Only one of those 7 has played 200 career NHL games (Lindholm). There is no competition for this. Liljegren is #2, Voynov is #3 and Kylington is #4. Kylington is finally playing some bottom pairing minutes for Calgary as a D+4 (when he is not in the pressbox - played in 2 games during the last month). Voynov played 190 games in the NHL. Fans are now projecting a future for Liljegren along the lines of Stralman or Daley. I think that it will match Kylington's. Has Sandin been great? Absolutely. Does that mean that every other player with his development curve is playing in the NHL? Not at all.

to be fair, Sandin hasn't narrowly taken the record. he's keeping up with guys like Brannstrom and Zadina and blowing away his U19 comparables. It's also his overall role and skillset that are impressive, as he's able to handle 25-30 minutes of toi and thrive against men. The way he processes the game sets him apart, imo. Definitely no Dahlin of course, but I think he could play his way into the next best group

 

[RoadWarrior]

Similar stuff was said about Liljegren last year. I was impressed with Liljegren's play last year but felt his production was lacking (still he was the all time leading scorer defensemen under 19 years of age in PPG in the history of the AHL - but this year when many of the other D drafted in his class in the first 3 rounds were finally eligible to play in the AHL they all have higher PPG this year than Liljegren - every single one of them). When you talk about 18 year old D in the AHL you are talking about only 7 players (who played 20 or more games) because the vast majority of player are not eligible. Only one of those 7 has played 200 career NHL games (Lindholm). There is no competition for this. Liljegren is #2, Voynov is #3 and Kylington is #4. Kylington is finally playing some bottom pairing minutes for Calgary as a D+4 (when he is not in the pressbox - played in 2 games during the last month). Voynov played 190 games in the NHL. Fans are now projecting a future for Liljegren along the lines of Stralman or Daley. I think that it will match Kylington's. Has Sandin been great? Absolutely. Does that mean that every other player with his development curve is playing in the NHL? Not at all.

Actually it does because every other player you mentioned had much lower production than Sandin as an 18 year old. For an interesting comparison Morgan Rielly scored only 3 points in 14 AHL games at the same age.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Sandin really reminds me as a Josi type. Good player, pretty smart, not that big but plays the game right. Takes off after his draft year and doesn't look back.

 

[LeafChief]

With Sandin and Liljegren developing the way they are, the emergence of Rosen and potential darkhorses like Hollowell and Lindgren, the issues we currently have on D may not be issues in the next 2-3 years.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Sandin really reminds me as a Josi type. Good player, pretty smart, not that big but plays the game right. Takes off after his draft year and doesn't look back.

TBH everything I've heard about him screams Josi, but Josi is so good I'm scared to start making that comparable

 

[BertCorbeau]

With Sandin and Liljegren developing the way they are, the emergence of Rosen and potential darkhorses like Hollowell and Lindgren, the issues we currently have on D may not be issues in the next 2-3 years.

I've been leaning in the direction that this team's best years are still ahead. In a couple of seasons once Sandin and Lily get their feet in the NHL, the Leafs could be really stacked.

 

[stickty111]

Here are the playoff series for our prospects, and their stats in the series and entire playoffs.
Updated Thursday March 21st

Games today
Game 1: HPK wins 3-2
HPK leads 1-0
Lindgren 1 goal

Game 1: Owen Sound wins 4-3 in OT
Owen Sound leads 1-0
Hollowell 1 assist

Game 1: Saginaw wins 6-3
Saginaw leads 1-0

SHL
1st round: Vaxjo vs Orebro
Vaxjo leads 2-0
Pontus Holmberg
Series:
GP 2 Goals Assists Points:
Playoffs:
GP 2 Goals Assists Points:
Regular season:
GP: 47 Goals: 3 Assists: 7 Points: 10

Liiga
2nd round: TPS(4) vs HPK(5)
HPK leads 1-0
Jesper Lindgren
Series:
GP 1 Goals 1 Assists Points
Playoffs:
GP 1 Goals 1 Assists Points
Regular season:
GP: 45 Goals: 2 Assists: 17 Points: 19

OHL
1st round: Sault Ste. Marie(3) vs Owen Sound Attack(6)
Owen Sound leads 1-0
Mac Hollowell
Series:
GP 1 Goals 1 Assists Points:
Playoffs:
GP 1 Goals 1 Assists Points:
Regular season:
GP: 64 Goals: 24 Assists: 53 Points: 77

1st round: Guelph(4) vs Kitchener(5)
Fedor Gordeev
Series:
GP Goals Assists Points:
Playoffs:
GP Goals Assists Points:
Regular season:
GP: 63 Goals: 7 Assists: 25 Points: 32

1st round: Oshawa(3) vs Peterborough(6)
SDA
Series:
GP Goals Assists Points:
Playoffs:
GP Goals Assists Points:
Regular season:
GP: 62 Goals: 6 Assists: 40 Points: 46

1st round: Saginaw(2) vs Sarnia(7)
Saginaw leads 1-0
Ryan McGregor
Series:
GP 1 Goals Assists Points:
Playoffs:
GP 1 Goals Assists Points:
Regular season:
GP: 61 Goals: 25 Assists: 52 Points: 77

WHL
1st round: Prince Albert(1) vs Red Deer(WC2)
Ian Scott
Series:
GP SV% GAA SO
Playoffs:
GP SV% GAA SO
Regular season:
GP: 49 SV%: .932 GAA: 1.83 SO: 8

1st round: Spokane(2) vs Portland(3)
Filip Kral
Series:
GP Goals Assists Points
Playoffs:
GP Goals Assists Points
Regular season:
GP: 47 Goals: 10 Assists: 26 Points: 36

1st round: Lethbridge(2) vs Calgary(3)
Riley Stotts
Series:
GP Goals Assists Points
Playoffs:
GP Goals Assists Points
Regular season:
GP: 62 Goals: 19 Assists: 38 Points: 57

 

[biotk]

Actually it does because every other player you mentioned had much lower production than Sandin as an 18 year old. For an interesting comparison Morgan Rielly scored only 3 points in 14 AHL games at the same age.

Again, due to what is most likely an 8 game hot streak. If you compare Sandin's first 29 career AHL with Liljegren's first 29 career AHL games they track almost exactly the same - tied in points for most of that time and within a single point for rest of the time with only 3 exceptions (those being Sandin being 2 points ahead after 2 and 3 career games played and Liljegren being 2 points ahead after 16 career games played).

Every time Laine goes on a goal scoring binge Laine fans are convinced that Laine has found a new level and will continue that elevated goal scoring pace, but regression to the mean always happens. Maybe that is not the case for Sandin, but history is not on the side of those who think that regression to the mean will not happen this time)

 

[Cor]

With Sandin and Liljegren developing the way they are, the emergence of Rosen and potential darkhorses like Hollowell and Lindgren, the issues we currently have on D may not be issues in the next 2-3 years.

2-3 years?

I’m convinced Toronto’s defensive depth issues will solve themselves next season.

Possibly not immediately in October but both Sandin and Liljegren, barring a development setback, will be on the roster at some point.

Rosen and Borgman will likely both be there from the start (Borgman as the 4th LD)

Jesper Lindgren is going to surprise some in camp. He’s solid enough where he can be on our roster if needed and he’s already fairly accustomed to the NA ice (which I think is an overstated adjustment anyway).

Heading down the stretch next season, I wouldn’t be shocked if we are running with; Rielly, Muzzin, Dermott, Sandin, Liljegren, & Rosen as our top 6, and Borgman and Ozhiganov as the spares.

I think it’s likely Sandin starts with the Marlies and comes up in Januaryish, while Rosen and Lilly start the year in the NHL.

 

[hamzarocks]

2-3 years?

I’m convinced Toronto’s defensive depth issues will solve themselves next season.

Possibly not immediately in October but both Sandin and Liljegren, barring a development setback, will be on the roster at some point.

Rosen and Borgman will likely both be there from the start (Borgman as the 4th LD)

Jesper Lindgren is going to surprise some in camp. He’s solid enough where he can be on our roster if needed and he’s already fairly accustomed to the NA ice (which I think is an overstated adjustment anyway).

Heading down the stretch next season, I wouldn’t be shocked if we are running with; Rielly, Muzzin, Dermott, Sandin, Liljegren, & Rosen as our top 6, and Borgman and Ozhiganov as the spares.

I think it’s likely Sandin starts with the Marlies and comes up in Januaryish, while Rosen and Lilly start the year in the NHL.

As good as lilijgren/sandin/rosen are they dont fix our defensive issues all by themselves as rookies. They can give us a great third pair who in limited minutes can start impacting the game positively for us. They will have their growing pains at the nhl level but come playoffs rosen/sandin-lilijgren should be a great 3rd pair. It still does not solve the fact we dont have a quality rhd for the 1st and 2nd pairs. Now if dermott is able to play his offside and take the next step in his development he can eat up mins while giving 30ish points and making a formidable 2nd pairing with muzzin.

That still leaves us short a top rhd. Rielly is elite but we can't pair him with a hainsey/zaitsev/Oz next season and expect to be a strong team. We need to let Hainsey walk, keep Oz as our number 8 defender and Try and find a deal for Zaitsev.

Need to either sign stralman as a stop gap top pairing defender or trade for one using kap/kadri/nylander/johnsson. If we can get back a top 4 the who can play with rielly on the top pair than our defense will improve greatly with a stronger 2nd and 3rd pair. But we can simply rely on a better bottom pairing ro improve our defense. A

trade(preferable) or free agent signing must be done this offseason if Dubas really wants to fix the defensive issues and turn our backend into a strength.

 

[BayStreetBully]

TBH everything I've heard about him screams Josi, but Josi is so good I'm scared to start making that comparable

I’m excited to see what Sandin can amount to, though still too early to tell. Unlike forward prospects, most of whom the best seem to get drafted at the top, some of the best defencemen are drafted all over the board, including late 1st round to 2nd and 3rd rounds. I hope Sandin will be our diamond in the rough.

 

[Macallan18]

we'd probably be a better team with this right now, tbh:

Muzzin - Rielly
Gardiner - Dermott
Sandin - Liljegren

Too bad Gardiner will be gone next year. That will be a massive hole.

 

[zeke]

Josh Morrissey imo.

interesting comp. I can see it.

 

[Macallan18]

The only argument against this, though you could even spin it as a reason to be for it... is it eliminates Zaitsev and Hainsey, who are our primary PK guys.

Now, while they haven't played as much, the GA/60 on the PK of both Rielly and Dermott is better than Zaitsev/Hainsey. Gardiner doesn't get any PK time, and Muzzin has been worse than either of Zaitsev and Hainsey.... so, do you throw Liljegren or Sandin out on the PK, as rookies, with Muzzin?

5v5... you "might" be right... I'm less certain our PK would be improved.

our primary pk guys?? ugghhhh
you know what's made a difference on our PK? Putting Marner on it. Completely changed the chemistry putting a skilled forward that is a constant threat and always breaking things up.
As far as the d goes, Hainsey, Zaitsev, Polak, who cares who is on PK, I don't think any of them are stellar. And Brown as a forward isn't either.

 

[RoadWarrior]

Again, due to what is most likely an 8 game hot streak. If you compare Sandin's first 29 career AHL with Liljegren's first 29 career AHL games they track almost exactly the same - tied in points for most of that time and within a single point for rest of the time with only 3 exceptions (those being Sandin being 2 points ahead after 2 and 3 career games played and Liljegren being 2 points ahead after 16 career games played).

Every time Laine goes on a goal scoring binge Laine fans are convinced that Laine has found a new level and will continue that elevated goal scoring pace, but regression to the mean always happens. Maybe that is not the case for Sandin, but history is not on the side of those who think that regression to the mean will not happen this time)

During that "hot streak" Sandin has been playing close to 30 minutes a night on the top pairing and shutting down the opposition. He's doing it at both ends of the ice. Most importantly the Marlies are winning because of him. His scoring is no fluke.

In fact there has been discussions between Babcock and Dubas about calling him up to help the leafs.

 

[Macallan18]

2-3 years?

I’m convinced Toronto’s defensive depth issues will solve themselves next season.

Possibly not immediately in October but both Sandin and Liljegren, barring a development setback, will be on the roster at some point.

Rosen and Borgman will likely both be there from the start (Borgman as the 4th LD)

Jesper Lindgren is going to surprise some in camp. He’s solid enough where he can be on our roster if needed and he’s already fairly accustomed to the NA ice (which I think is an overstated adjustment anyway).

Heading down the stretch next season, I wouldn’t be shocked if we are running with; Rielly, Muzzin, Dermott, Sandin, Liljegren, & Rosen as our top 6, and Borgman and Ozhiganov as the spares.

I think it’s likely Sandin starts with the Marlies and comes up in Januaryish, while Rosen and Lilly start the year in the NHL.

The best thing about your post was no mention of Hainsey (who should retire after this year) and Zaitsev (who HAS to be traded before his no trade kicks in in July, can you imagine having to protect him for the Seattle draft????)

 

[ULF_55]

Some of us remember Tomas Kaberle coming into the Leafs as a 20 year old rookie who took all of about 2 games to adjust to the smaller ice.

Liljegren would only be 2 months younger than Kaberle if he were to do the same thing, and Liljegren has 2 years on the small ice.

I don't really see it as a stretch at all if he starts the season with the Leafs, unless Kaberle is vastly underrated.