Prospect Info: Marlies and Prospects Discussion - 2018/19 Edition V

[SeaOfBlue]

Man he skates like he is in slow motion

 

[deletethis]

I'm actually very optimistic that these smaller mistakes Dubas has made like this (what's the worst from it? one bad contract) are learning experiences for him. He's clearly wicked smart but there's an air of overconfidence and desire to make bold uncharted moves. I believe he's eventually going to become a little more conventional as he ages. I think he's just a little too eager to figure out a way to game the draft.

 

[Mr Hockey]

SDA made the draft cut off by what? A couple days?

This year is essentially a bonus year. He doesn't even turn 19 until like 10 days before next season.

a bonus year, this is his d+1 season? I also think he is lucky he didn't go in this years draft, he would have dropped, imo

 

[SeaOfBlue]

SDA I could see as well. Generated a lot of hype at camp, but has had a slightly disappointing year. We would be lucky if he became as good as Bracco. Not to mention, Riley Stotts looks like a nice prospect with some projectable tools who we took in the 3rd as well. His offensive talent is underrated.

He's just the perfect mix of having the type of skill and package that would be enticing to teams, but something the Leafs can afford to move. The Leafs do need center prospects, but I'm not sure SDA would become one, and there are other options as you said. One thing about the Leafs is that while they lack true high end prospects these days, they have still done a great job in accumulating prospects who have progressed well enough to be role players in the NHL and do not have too many prospects in their pool who are really projected to bust at this stage in their careers.

 

[Cor]

Ian Scott: 39 GP, 1.91 GAA, .932 sv%
Joseph Woll: 25 GP, 2.32 GAA, .921 sv%


Not Carter Hart/Thatcher Demko numbers, but still pretty great so far.

 

[LeafChief]

Ian Scott: 39 GP, 1.91 GAA, .932 sv%
Joseph Woll: 25 GP, 2.32 GAA, .921 sv%


Not Carter Hart/Thatcher Demko numbers, but still pretty great so far.

If even one of them pans out it will be huge for the Leafs. Hopefully both!

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Ian Scott: 39 GP, 1.91 GAA, .932 sv%
Joseph Woll: 25 GP, 2.32 GAA, .921 sv%


Not Carter Hart/Thatcher Demko numbers, but still pretty great so far.

BC kind of sucks this year though. I know they got to the Beanpot Final and do win games, but that's mostly on Woll. If Woll was on Demko's BC team, he'd probably put up similar numbers.

PA has kind of evened out since the WHL TDL.

 

[justafan22]

Woll will be better.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

BC kind of sucks this year though. I know they got to the Beanpot Final and do win games, but that's mostly on Woll. If Woll was on Demko's BC team, he'd probably put up similar numbers.

PA has kind of evened out since the WHL TDL.

It was kind of weird that the best team in Canada didn't really add anybody at the deadline. It's not like PA is a powerhouse year after year like London, they should have gone all out to win this year.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

It was kind of weird that the best team in Canada didn't really add anybody at the deadline. It's not like PA is a powerhouse year after year like London, they should have gone all out to win this year.

Did not want to mess with things. They did add Dante Hannoun, which is significant. Otherwise, I don't understand why they wasted assets on some of the depth guys they brought in, just to dump other depth guys who were as good as the new ones they brought in.

 

[Menzinger]

Sandin is already looking excellent, Durzi was flipped for a top pairing dman, and Stotts, Holmberg, Kral and Hollowell look good. Dubas had a great draft. Let's not forget SDA is basically a bonus prospect from Dubas moving back, and still getting his player anyway

Sandin looks like he could be the best Leafs draft pick since 2014 other than Marner/Matthews/Nylander/Dermott

 

[Mr Hockey]

Sandin looks like he could be the best Leafs draft pick since 2014 other than Marner/Matthews/Nylander/Dermott

very possible, I would like to see how both of the goalies play next season.

 

[Maplebeasts]

I was surprised SDA was signed so quickly.

That said, the kid is incredibly young. So, we will see where it goes.

It was more of a reward for having such a good rookie and training camp imo. I'm thinking he'll light up the OHL next year when he gets another summer of strength training under his belt. The hands and passing are there.

 

[stickty111]

Sandin is already looking excellent, Durzi was flipped for a top pairing dman, and Stotts, Holmberg, Kral and Hollowell look good. Dubas had a great draft. Let's not forget SDA is basically a bonus prospect from Dubas moving back, and still getting his player anyway

You can put Kizimov on the list. His PPG is 0.33. Compared to 2016 7th rounder Nikolai Chebykin(Hunter pick) who has a PPG of 0.35. Kizimov has nearly identical production and is almost 2 and a half years younger.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

SDA will just turn 19 at the start of the OHL season next year. Expect that to be a huge year for him. If it isn't, send him back for his overage season and avoid burning a year on his ELC.

It always seems to be worth it when you take the younger skilled guys in a draft class and then take your time with them. Marner,Kapanen,Nylander were much better prospects, but all fall into that category.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

You can put Kizimov on the list. His PPG is 0.33. Compared to 2016 7th rounder Nikolai Chebykin(Hunter pick) who has a PPG of 0.35. Kizimov has nearly identical production and is almost 2 and a half years younger.

Kizimov should have made the russian world junior team, should be a lock as a 19 year old next year.

 

[LeafChief]

Getting Sandin at the end of the 1st round is looking to be like a steal and a half.

 

[nobody]

After years of poor drafting and developing even with our high picks our luck has finally turned around.

We've unearthed so many late round gems and we've hit on most of our top picks in the past 7 years.

I still believe Liljegren is a stud in the making and I hope we stay patient with his development. Keep in mind not every defender takes off in their early 20s. Most grow into their games and shine in their mid-late 20s.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

there's a good pipeline of talent, but aside from Sandin and maybe Liljegren, there are no prospects with a high likelihood of being an upper echelon NHL player (i.e. 60th percentile or better). Woll and Bracco might get there, but are far from a certain thing. The rest are unlikely to have this kind of upside.

And this is perfectly ok. You always want the best talent available, but there are a lot of highly talented players on the existing squad. What will determine annual contention for the next 6-10 years will be talent pipeline management and cap management. This is where having serviceable, cheap, NHL players is instrumental to success. Being able to have at least 25% of your drafted players (3rd round or lower) play 500+ career NHL games would be the litmus test for me. If you can find your Conor Browns, Nikolai Kulemins, and Carl Gunnarsson in the 3rd round or later 25% of the time you draft, you've basically created a permanently sustainable model for contention as long as you have the right collection of elite players making elite player salaries.

The Leafs currently have 5 picks in the 3rd round or later. If at least 1 of them who will be drafted can play 500 NHL games starting in 2022 or 2023 (irrspective of whether entirely with the Leafs or elsewhere), then I'd consider it a success in terms of pipeline management. If Dubas & Co can find 2 or more of such guys, that's a huge success. And with any incoming cap crunch where players such as Brown or Zaitsev might have to be traded for picks, provided that scouting can get it right 25% of the time, it only keeps things flowing, so to speak.

 

[justafan22]

there's a good pipeline of talent, but aside from Sandin and maybe Liljegren, there are no prospects with a high likelihood of being an upper echelon NHL player (i.e. 60th percentile or better). Woll and Bracco might get there, but are far from a certain thing. The rest are unlikely to have this kind of upside.

And this is perfectly ok. You always want the best talent available, but there are a lot of highly talented players on the existing squad. What will determine annual contention for the next 6-10 years will be talent pipeline management and cap management. This is where having serviceable, cheap, NHL players is instrumental to success. Being able to have at least 25% of your drafted players (3rd round or lower) play 500+ career NHL games would be the litmus test for me. If you can find your Conor Browns, Nikolai Kulemins, and Carl Gunnarsson in the 3rd round or later 25% of the time you draft, you've basically created a permanently sustainable model for contention as long as you have the right collection of elite players making elite player salaries.

The Leafs currently have 5 picks in the 3rd round or later. If at least 1 of them who will be drafted can play 500 NHL games starting in 2022 or 2023 (irrspective of whether entirely with the Leafs or elsewhere), then I'd consider it a success in terms of pipeline management. If Dubas & Co can find 2 or more of such guys, that's a huge success. And with any incoming cap crunch where players such as Brown or Zaitsev might have to be traded for picks, provided that scouting can get it right 25% of the time, it only keeps things flowing, so to speak.

they've graduated a metric ****ton of prospects.

Having the best prospect pool for more than a year or so isn't a good thing.

 

[Joey Hoser]

there's a good pipeline of talent, but aside from Sandin and maybe Liljegren, there are no prospects with a high likelihood of being an upper echelon NHL player (i.e. 60th percentile or better).

The 'ol "If you don't count their best prospects, they don't have any good prospects" argument.

Two high-end prospects and a bunch of maybes is a totally normal prospect pool, and plenty decent for a contender. It's not like every other team has 5-6 future stars in waiting all the time.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

The 'ol "If you don't count their best prospects, they don't have any good prospects" argument.

I think you missed my point entirely, which is fine, but allow me to elaborate a bit further in case my initial post failed to spell it out in simple enough terms.

My post wasn't in any way negative about the Leafs farm system...it was actually saying that because the Leafs already GRADUATED elite prospects, they have a sustainable window of contention for the next 7-10 years, provided that they can continue to draft solid depth players from rounds 3-7 perennially. This is because the number of elite players and their corresponding cap hits already exists, and what's instrumental for sustainable success is having affordable players who are ready to complement the rest of the team.

In fact, while you always want the best talent available all things equal, this is rarely the case.

At the current developmental curve of the organisation, it's actually in the best interests of the Leafs to maximize players who have higher floors (or midpoints) than ceilings. Take for instance

Player A
- Ceiling: fringe All-Star forward
- Midpoint: 3rd Liner
- Floor: fringe NHLer (out of the league after < 100 games played)
- 5% of hitting ceiling, 10% of midpoint, 85% chance of hitting floor

Player B:
- Ceiling: 3rd Liner
- Midpoint: 4th Liner
- Floor: never makes the NHL
- ceiling: 30%, midpoint: 40%, floor: 30%.

You can take a punt on maybe 1 or 2 guys from your assumed 5 draft picks between Rounds 3 and 7, but you'd want to fill the rest of your picks with Player B at this point in the Leafs' trajectory. When you factor in the committed salary and the contention window, it's probably more imperative to get a handful of safe Player B picks right than it is to overweigh your Round 3-7 picks, hoping that 1 or 2 out of the next 20 picks will be like Kapanen or Johnsson versus having 8 or 9 players who are serviceable like Lindholm, Gauthier, Ozhiganov, Moore, etc. 3 out of these aforementioned 4 were free wallets, which is always a bonus - but it's not something that can be relied upon, particularly as the available capspace tightens and these FAs see excess competition and limited ice-time due to the contention window of the Leafs.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

they've graduated a metric ****ton of prospects.

Having the best prospect pool for more than a year or so isn't a good thing.

that was exactly my point.......

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Woll will be better.

Both can’t be any worse than Sparks

 

[Nithoniniel]

they've graduated a metric ****ton of prospects.

Having the best prospect pool for more than a year or so isn't a good thing.

Had to stop up and think for a moment but you are absolutely right about that. Great prospect pools come from having elite talent, but if your elite talent doesn't translate pretty quickly then something has probably gone wrong. Arizona had a top prospect pool for quite a few years, but that was in large part due to Strome never quite taking the step. It's not like their situation was better than ours just because Marner was an instant hit and Strome took until now to become valuable.

If you map out a basic cap and roster management preliminary plan, I think it would look something like this:

18/19
Gardiner -> Dermott -> Rosén (Gardiner's spot is taken by Dermott, and his spot is taken by Rosén)
Zaitsev -> Liljegren
Hainsey -> Ozhiganov
Lindholm -> Moore
Brown -> Bracco
Extended = Johnsson, Kapanen, Marner

19/20
Muzzin -> Dermott -> Sandin
Marleau -> Moore -> ?
Gauthier -> ?
Extended = Dermott

20/21
Andersen -> Woll/Scott (Hopefully)
Extended = Liljegren, Sandin, Hyman, Rosén

21/22
Kadri -> Nylander -> Bracco -> ?
Extended = Rielly

Goaltending is the big question mark. Who knows how our situation will look in a couple of years. I'd preferably like to avoid giving a long-term contract to an aging goaltender though. Other than that, we only really have a couple of question marks in depth positions. Unless Bracco can't translate into the NHL, in which case we might miss a top nine RW or a third line center, depending on what we do with Willy.

So while our farm is getting a bit thin, we're young enough with the right kind of pieces that we should be fine over the foreseeable future. It likely won't be this easy though, things always go wrong at some point.