Marc Bergevin: Redemption Song Part 19

[Kriss E]

It's not about Tavares. Yes, with him in the lineup they would likely eliminate us. But it is is not a team to go far in the playoffs. They are just flawed on too many levels and don't have the room to maneuver in order to change their make up significantly.

Observing Dubas at work has been a joy for me as a Habs fan. I expected a decade of frustration facing them on a regular basis. Now I'm convinced they screwed up their rebuild and are going nowhere.

The Leafs went all in on offense. It's kind of important when your 2nd line becomes centered by Galchenyuk, so ya, it's about Tavares.
I think people are dumping on the Leafs a tad too much. Our strategy is to heavily rely on Price, if he gets injured we're toast. Leafs rely on offense, a big chunk was taken away when Tavares went out. It's significant.
Leafs aren't the Bolts where they can lose Stamkos and still win the cup.
It's not just Tavares either, their defense isn't deep so losing Muzzin really hurt them as well.
If Holl and Sandin take a step forward, that would be a big help, and then it's about tweaks.

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

To a point. It still matters to get your skilled players at the most valuable positions. C and first pairing D and build from there — I don’t believe that axiom has changed.

There is the goalie too but a team need a hot goalie at the right time if that goalie isn't a superstar. But superstar goalie can make a difference like Dryden, Parent, Roy, Brodeur and Hasek. And maybe Price, we'll see.

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

Hmm..I disagree. I think Dubas recognized this and targeted players. Holl, Simmonds, Bogosian, Foligno, even Muzzin...Seems to me like the Leafs definitely tried to get players who can be difficult to play against. It just didn't work out for them.

Leafs are not definitivly out of the game. They were one goal to send us to golf, don't we forget. They have a good core, Tavares is a good 2 way player, they are missing maybe 3 players to be a contender team, they just need to make trades like Bergevin did. Boston Bruins are aging and the window of Matthews-Tavares is still many years open.

 

[Kriss E]

Dubas is in over his head. A 1st for a 4th liner should be a great reason for anyone to get the boot imo

Foligno was a big part of Columbus sweeping Tampa and getting to the second round last POs too, getting a ton of minutes.
So I can see why Dubas aggressively went after him, it was a great add, albeit very expensive as you mention.
Also been a ton of reason for Bergevin to get fired, so that's neither here nor there.
Whoever the GM of the Leafs would be, I could see/understand why they'd pursue Foligno hard.

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

Foligno was a big part of Columbus sweeping Tampa and getting to the second round last POs too, getting a ton of minutes.
So I can see why Dubas aggressively went after him, it was a great add, albeit very expensive as you mention.
Also been a ton of reason for Bergevin to get fired, so that's neither here nor there.
Whoever the GM of the Leafs would be, I could see/understand why they'd pursue Foligno hard.

Toronto have Foligno and Montreal have Anderson. Who is younger, who is bigger and faster and who have more impact?

 

[Archijerej]

The Leafs went all in on offense. It's kind of important when your 2nd line becomes centered by Galchenyuk, so ya, it's about Tavares.
I think people are dumping on the Leafs a tad too much. Our strategy is to heavily rely on Price, if he gets injured we're toast. Leafs rely on offense, a big chunk was taken away when Tavares went out. It's significant.
Leafs aren't the Bolts where they can lose Stamkos and still win the cup.
It's not just Tavares either, their defense isn't deep so losing Muzzin really hurt them as well.
If Holl and Sandin take a step forward, that would be a big help, and then it's about tweaks.

I'm not talking about beating us in round one. They could have done it, no question.

I'm talking about being a contender, which they are not.

 

[Kriss E]

I'm not talking about beating us in round one. They could have done it, no question.

I'm talking about being a contender, which they are not.

I think they're contenders simply from having so much scoring talent. Suggesting a team carrying Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander isn't a contender...You're talking about a group who scored 225pts just by themselves over this shortened season. By comparison, we need to add our top 8 scorers in order to reach that amount of points.
Yes, I understand, a few players don't make a team, so like I said, they have some tweaking to do, but if Campbell has another great season, Holl and Sandin take a step forward defensively, there's no reason to dismiss them as contenders.

 

[LaP]

Hmm..I disagree. I think Dubas recognized this and targeted players. Holl, Simmonds, Bogosian, Foligno, even Muzzin...Seems to me like the Leafs definitely tried to get players who can be difficult to play against. It just didn't work out for them.

It rarely works. We happen to be the exception for this year but people forget all the years it did not work for us. Adding a bunch of new players to a team and having it gel for the playoffs is not common. Specially if you add players who had their best days behind them and ask them to play 12-13 minutes a game in a supporting role. Teams who win a cup usually have a solid and stable core and add 2-3 players at the deadline or in the summer to fill some gap. I feel like the Laffs are at least 2 players away from that. 3 if they lose Hyman. They need to add some stability like the pens did when they added Kunitz and Hornqvist. Muzzin was a step in the right direction for them but it's going to be hard to add more with 3 big contracts. I'd entertain trading Marner if i was them.

 

[Kriss E]

It rarely works. We happen to be the exception for this year but people forget all the years it did not work for us. Adding a bunch of new players to a team and having it gel for the playoffs is very rare. Specially if you add players who had their best days behind them and ask them to play 12-13 minutes a game in a supporting role. Teams who win a cup usually have a solid and stable core and add 2-3 players at the deadline to fill some gap. I feel like the Laffs are at least 2 players away from that. 3 if they lose Hyman. They need to add some stability like the pens did when they added Kunitz and Hornqvist.

It's not just about clicking, some of these guys just aren't good anymore. Simmonds and Bogosian are done so they just weren't good targets. Poor scouting on their part.
They brought in Thornton and Spezza for vet presence, but unlike we did with Perry/Staal, those guys don't have cup rings. Thornton is also 40+..he's a playmaker so he needs space..POs become very tight checking, not sure grabbing him really made sense either.
But those are tweaks, they don't need to do major changes. Just smaller adjustments that when added can make a big impact.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Its too bad Drouin isn't around to play against Sergachev. Would be quite the stamp on that trade.

In march, Drouin made the biggest stamp on the trade

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

In march, Drouin made the biggest stamp on the trade

You should leave Drouin alone. He and his family don't need that kind of comment. Lack of class, you should be ashamed.

 

[ahmedou]

Actual playoffs roster (*23):

12 in a trade + 7 at Draft + 3 in Free Agency + 1 on Waivers

 

[salbutera]

It rarely works. We happen to be the exception for this year but people forget all the years it did not work for us. Adding a bunch of new players to a team and having it gel for the playoffs is not common. Specially if you add players who had their best days behind them and ask them to play 12-13 minutes a game in a supporting role. Teams who win a cup usually have a solid and stable core and add 2-3 players at the deadline or in the summer to fill some gap. I feel like the Laffs are at least 2 players away from that. 3 if they lose Hyman. They need to add some stability like the pens did when they added Kunitz and Hornqvist. Muzzin was a step in the right direction for them but it's going to be hard to add more with 3 big contracts. I'd entertain trading Marner if i was them.

2011, 2012, 2014, 2019 all teams with scoring by committee concept, who won based on combination of team depth, defensive execution, goaltending & size / physicality quotient. That’s 40% of Cups over last 10-tries...definitely doesn’t qualify as “rarely works”.

Yes, it’s definitely much easier to build a winner if there’s 1-or more elite talents, but there isn’t one singular recipe to achieve success, very dependent on puzzle pieces at disposal

 

[Archijerej]

Exactly. Also part of MB’s plan — a traditional cap team not spending to the cap for 3 straight seasons cause he knew COVID was coming and that the Habs would be one of few teams with cap room to sign desperate free agents. Also part of the plan: the reset ending thanks to a play-in.

It goes without saying that he didn't plan for the global pandemic.

But I think we can at least agree that not spending to the cap if you can't sign the players you want WAS a deliberate strategy to retain flexibility?

I mean, they were universally accused of pinching pennies and running a budget organization with no interest of icing a competitive roster. Would be nice if people could bring themselves to admit they were wrong on this point.

 

[nhlfan9191]

You should leave Drouin alone. He and his family don't need that kind of comment. Lack of class, you should be ashamed.

I’ll be honest, I’ve watched many former and current players take MUCH bigger beatings from our fanbase then him and nobody sticks up for them. What makes Drouin any different? If Price came out and said he was suffering from mental illness, would people be saying “leave him alone” or would they be ripping him to pieces?

 

[Andy]

Dubas is in over his head. A 1st for a 4th liner should be a great reason for anyone to get the boot imo

Toronto ran into a hot goaltender and lost Tavares. They have a good team. Sometimes the match up doesn’t work out. There isn’t much to do over there except maybe upgrade on Simmonds and Thornton.

If the habs had Campbell in net, they don’t make it past game 5.

 

[Miller Time]

Many US teams will again be in jettisoning $ mode this off-season - talk here in Bruins land is Jacobs has let Neely know if he wants to keep his job, get the Big Bad Bruins back, and $alaries out the door. Sweeney’s analytics support group has been let go, per ownership orders

Habs playoff run has generated revenue, and willingness / ability to spend ca$h on player bonuses, which will potentially allow for options to be had from teams looking at fire sales to avoid paying July 1st bonuses even if it means eating up AAV that doesn’t involve real $alaries.

For example I could see Az willing to ship OEL for Drouin while eating difference in cap space - w Habs paying $10M in actual salary and bonuses going forward and Az reducing salary impact to $5M. Not saying that’s a good deal or something Habs should do, but type of deals I expect will become available to teams willing to spend

like last summer, there should be some very good opportunities to add elite talent.

unlike last summer, i hope we're more opportunistic in our approach, as I agree, there could be ways to leverage our ownership willingness to spend and take on long-term salary obligations into both jettisoning unwanted cap hits and acquiring talent.

 

[Miller Time]

Toronto ran into a hot goaltender and lost Tavares. They have a good team. Sometimes the match up doesn’t work out. There isn’t much to do over there except maybe upgrade on Simmonds and Thornton.

If the habs had Campbell in net, they don’t make it past game 5.

don't forget Muzzin being out for most of game 6 and all of game 7... it was really a perfect storm of factors contributing to that upset, and i suspect Shannahan/Dubas understand that.

 

[Hannibal]

If he is indeed leaving if we win it all, i’ll be really sad. Would be a big loss.

 

[Miller Time]

Leafs personify tinker bell hockey, even TBay realized they needed the nastiness of Coleman, Goodrow & Maroon, which was the philosophical vision of Brisebois vs Stevie Y. They haven’t looked back since

I don’t see Dubas implementing a dose of nastiness in the Leafs regular lineup...that’s just not his philosophy - they don’t draft those types, don’t sign those types and have no prospect in that mold

simmonds, folignor, bogosian...

and Stevie Y/Brisebois worked incredibly closely in building the current Bolts core. Morrow, Cernak, Callahan, Boyle... there were no shortage of Maroon/Goodrow type efforts to add grit elements to support the skilled core over the years. That it came together and they pulled off the win last year wasn't the result of some shift in philosophical approach, far from it.

 

[salbutera]

don't forget Muzzin being out for most of game 6 and all of game 7... it was really a perfect storm of factors contributing to that upset, and i suspect Shannahan/Dubas understand that.

Physically abusing Leafs players was part of game plan from opening puck drop in game 1 - Muzzin was the direct result of game planning. I don’t subscribe that injury to luck, however, Tavares definitely qualifies as fortune falling the Habs way.

 

[Runner77]

It goes without saying that he didn't plan for the global pandemic.

Goes without saying that the statement was hyperbolic. Even added an emoji that suggested it. It was a mere exaggeration to prove the obvious point that Bergevin’s lack of action in respect of the unspent cap, should normally not have constituted a reward — but it did thanks to the desolate economic landscape and cratered revenues league-wide caused by the pandemic. Cap room easily became the most valuable commodity during COVID, I don’t think that can be disputed either.

But I think we can at least agree that not spending to the cap if you can't sign the players you want WAS a deliberate strategy to retain flexibility?

Flexibility for what? Habs have always been a cap team. Bergevin kept saying throughout the 3 years that the cap remained unspent to its fullest, that he was vying for the playoffs. Who keeps that much cap room if they’re vying for the playoffs?

I mean, they were universally accused of pinching pennies and running a budget organization with no interest of icing a competitive roster. Would be nice if people could bring themselves to admit they were wrong on this point.

There’s nothing to be nice about. It’s just the facts. They were saying that they were vying for the playoffs but on the other hand, they didn’t behave like an organization that was true to that statement. Their approach was disingenuous and they got rewarded for it — that’s just dumb luck.

 

[OldCraig71]

If he is indeed leaving if we win it all, i’ll be really sad. Would be a big loss.

Who are you referring to here? I must have missed something.

 

[Runner77]

Who are you referring to here? I must have missed something.

Bergevin quipped that he would quit if the Habs win the Cup. I’ll believe that when I see it.

 

[LaP]

2011, 2012, 2014, 2019 all teams with scoring by committee concept, who won based on combination of team depth, defensive execution, goaltending & size / physicality quotient. That’s 40% of Cups over last 10-tries...definitely doesn’t qualify as “rarely works”.

Yes, it’s definitely much easier to build a winner if there’s 1-or more elite talents, but there isn’t one singular recipe to achieve success, very dependent on puzzle pieces at disposal

For one you don't give enough credit to Boston and LA they had solid and stable cores. I was referring to adding multiple pieces in a single year and win. It's better to build a core and add some pieces to it when needed. Also it rarely works in the sense that there's 32 teams and your chance to be the "committee" (surprise) winner for a given year is extremely low. Probably around once in 30 years. The best way to win is to build a solid core and contend for multiple years in a row while adding pieces here and there instead of being the "committee" winner like Dallas was last year and then disappear the next year.

IMO the Laffs are 2-3 pieces away from having a solid core. Adding guys like Perry, Staal and Merrill wont magically make them a winner unless they are the "committee" winner for that given year. They need at least two good top 6 winger if they lose Hyman. They need at least one solid top 4 dman. I'd argue they probably need a better 3rd line center too. If they can acquire that then yes adding some sandpaper and depth could work.

There's one of two surprise every year. Here and there the surprise win a cup. But the likelihood that your team is a cup winner surprise is very low. It's relatively high if you count all teams. But if you count only YOUR team it's way way way less than that. Again nobody will ever convince me that the best way to win is not to contend for multiple years. Don't think the Laffs are there yet they are missing some pieces and they should look for solutions that last for more than a year or two.