Sportsnet: Maple Leafs must add proven defenders, move on from all-offence identity

[socko]

We're not going to see any change in this team's direction under Dubas. He has sucked the life out of me as a fan. I was so excited when we won that lottery too.

 

[Mess]

You don't need analytics to see a Team that missed the Playoffs and really isn't nearly as good as they are made out to be.
Really nothing more than some strange moral victory from those who really don't understand the game very well.

Leafs x/Series data has them facing off against Philly in the 2nd round right now. I'm sure some have the analytics data to support that, if you're willing to sift through the hundreds of expected stats being posted here regularly.

Reality however has NYIs instead in that position. I guess their GM must understand the game well when it comes to team building practices based on experience and not fancy spreadsheets.

At the end of the day building a successful hockey team is more difficult than simply assembling a figure skating team that looks good on paper. Hopefully that is the take away from this Leafs season that sees changes made to the roster this offseason that will result in Leafs actually competing in round #2 next season. Because our team doesn't look anything like these playoff teams I'm watching on TV.

 

[HarryLime]

Pierre McGuire would beat Marner 1v1 in an arm wrestling match

 

[GirardSpinorama]

No they didn't. They assessed the Leaf's season very accurately. Great offense, average defense, poor goaltending. Hockey analytics understands that defense and goaltending are two different positions.

Expected goals against (defense) is not measuring the same thing as goals against (defense + goaltending), so expecting them to match doesn't make much sense.

Defense and goaltending are two different positions. hockey analytics today just use poor data and misses many variables (such as goaltender position relative to where the shot came from, whether or not he is screened). It also pretends we are playing on a 2D surface, so every shot is on the ice. Its NOT reliable, and obviously fans with eyes can tell you the numbers are not matching reality.

You might as well just go back to using Corsi.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Defense and goaltending are two different positions. hockey analytics today just use poor data and misses many variables (such as goaltender position relative to where the shot came from, whether or not he is screened). It also pretends we are playing on a 2D surface, so every shot is on the ice.

It doesn't do that at all. Hockey analytics provides valuable information to better evaluate a team and/or players, and where the issues are. To ignore them is just choosing to have less information. You can't evaluate the separate performance of defense and goaltending from goals against.

Its NOT reliable, and obviously fans with eyes can tell you the numbers are not matching reality.

The stats are more reliable than the eye test, and the eye test matches very well with what the stats say.

 

[Shanwhatplan]

No, I support good, rational moves.

Then I'm not sure why you were pushing the "defense wins championships" narrative, when that's historically false, at least in hockey.

Huh? He doesn't care about defense because he traded an offensive player for a top 4 defenseman?

Your first response only proves what I said. Lol

As for Barrie being a top 4 defenceman, that would only be in terms of offence, which fits perfectly with yours and Dubas’ feelings on offence (his career +/- is -66!!! Compared to Jake Muzzin’s career +47). But hey, offence is more important than defence, as Barrie clearly showed us. What a joke!

And there is no doubt in my mind that until the Leafs get more balance in their lineup, ie some better 2-way players, their Cup aspirations will only be a dream.

Also, wondering if you happened to hear coach Barry Trotz’ comment the other day, (you remember him don’t you, recently won a Cup as coach of the Capitals), he was saying he didn’t mind if the play was in their end for extended periods of time because of their defensive play. Yes, you heard right, his teams know how to play good, sound, defensive hockey.

You need timely offence (does not have to be elite, which Dubas clearly believes you do need, proven by those contracts), sound defence, and solid goaltending. Hard to have all these when 50% of your cap is paid to 4 forwards (didn’t we get shutout twice by a top 4 defensive team? How could that have happened?) Please tell me, Dubas, or is it Dekes For Days???

 

[Dekes For Days]

As for Barrie being a top 4 defenceman, that would only be in terms of offence

No, in terms of the role he's had on his teams for almost his whole career.

(his career +/- is -66!!! Compared to Jake Muzzin’s career +47).

+/- is useless. It's not representative of defensive ability.

Also, wondering if you happened to hear coach Barry Trotz’ comment the other day, (you remember him don’t you, recently won a Cup as coach of the Capitals), he was saying he didn’t mind if the play was in their end for extended periods of time because of their defensive play. Yes, you heard right, his teams know how to play good, sound, defensive hockey.

Uh...what? You think good, sound, defensive hockey is getting stuck in your own end for extended periods of time? Also, you do realize the Capitals weren't good defensively when they won the cup, right?

Hard to have all these when 50% of your cap is paid to 4 forwards

Not really, as long as you don't have the massively horrible anchors that many teams have. We don't have any.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Which means don’t get too attached to everyone. There are certain staples yes, but what you start with doesn’t mean lock.
Yes the Canucks used speed and skill, but they also brought a bunch of other elements we don’t.

Oh I agree we don't have the proper balance at all - especially when guys like Hyman, Kap and Soup go MIA in the playoffs. And Mango inured

 

[TheScandal89]

With Montreal losing, I slightly looked into there forum, and it is not a unpopular opinion that they would like to move Max Domi.

I realize he is not a D man, however, he is a player we truley need to fill the role of talented pest who drags the team into an emotional game. I realize he had a very poor playoff.

 

[Stephen]

Which means don’t get too attached to everyone. There are certain staples yes, but what you start with doesn’t mean lock.
Yes the Canucks used speed and skill, but they also brought a bunch of other elements we don’t.

They certainly have a lot more sandpaper to their game with guys like JT Miller, Pearson, Roussel, Gaudette, Horvat, Virtanen as well as the big body types on defense who can support guys like Quinn Hughes on defense. And a goalie who is playing well.

 

[Stephen]

With Montreal losing, I slightly looked into there forum, and it is not a unpopular opinion that they would like to move Max Domi.

I realize he is not a D man, however, he is a player we truley need to fill the role of talented pest who drags the team into an emotional game. I realize he had a very poor playoff.

I would support a player like Max Domi, but he would have to come with maybe 2 other sandpaper forwards we could then create a unit out of. Too many of the drop in the bucket type moves and it won't push the needle. AJ, Kap, Kerfoot are all low hanging fruit in terms of not bringing any special ingredients you'd like to swap out.

 

[Trapper]

Oh I agree we don't have the proper balance at all - especially when guys like Hyman, Kap and Soup go MIA in the playoffs. And Mango inured

If you have a center like Matthews or a defender like Jones, those are pretty much a lock.
But you can move a Nylander or Kadri (but you have to satisfy a long term need with it).
For Kadri not even close. A UFA D who was always questionable on the side that is D.

And then of course the Kadri/Hyman style of play. I cut Hyman some slack, he’s performed in the past playoffs and was coming off an injury for the series.

Kap just plain needs to be better if he wants to stay. Find his scrappy again.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

It doesn't do that at all. Hockey analytics provides valuable information to better evaluate a team and/or players, and where the issues are. To ignore them is just choosing to have less information. You can't evaluate the separate performance of defense and goaltending from goals against.

No, a good model is reliable and can be depended on. A lot of advanced stats models in basketball and baseball are great. Hockey models do not provide you with accurate information so your decisions may be EVEN WORSE. You have to validate all advanced stats with the eye test and improve your model. Clearly there is a multitude of problems such as the leafs that prove the models need work.

You haven't addressed any of the problems I've pointed out, so I'm assuming you can't and you are only relying on it to make yourself feel better. Cool.

 

[Chief keefe]

+/- is useless. It's not representative of defensive ability.

when you’re an offensive Dman that’s y typically hits 40-50 points a season you should be a little higher than that. It means you’re on the ice for a LOT of goals against and less goals for. Doesn’t matter why it isn’t a good stat maybe over 1 season but over 5-6 seasons I think it says a lot about the kind of player you are. Look at the players bellow. Who of these would you say is a good player?


Tyson Barrie -66
Cody ceci -53
Jake Muzzin +47
Roman Polak +8
Pietrangelo +77
Webber +88
Subban + 29 ( 1 really bad season at -21..guess which one)

Honestly, the numbers don’t lie...I would give Subban 1 year on this team. He didn’t fit in with the devils but I think he fits the bill here. He is waaay more sound defensively then Barrie (not by much but he is historically better). Polak...not a good D but a better D then Ceci and Barrie.

 

[Shanwhatplan]

No, in terms of the role he's had on his teams for almost his whole career.

+/- is useless. It's not representative of defensive ability.

Uh...what? You think good, sound, defensive hockey is getting stuck in your own end for extended periods of time? Also, you do realize the Capitals weren't good defensively when they won the cup, right?

Not really, as long as you don't have the massively horrible anchors that many teams have. We don't have any.

Barrie’s whole career has been all offence. And as far as +/- goes, watching Barrie play in his own end is proof enough! Also, if +/- is so useless and isn’t representative of defensive ability, what about Jake Muzzin?

And you do realize that Trotz now coaches the Islanders (this is his 2nd season), so he made that comment regarding his Islanders’ team, not the Capitals! And the point he was making (you do realize that every team gets cycled on occasionally, right?), is that the Islanders give up very few QUALITY scoring chances. Again, sound, defensive structure. If you watched many games, you might see the difference!

 

[Shanwhatplan]

when you’re an offensive Dman that’s y typically hits 40-50 points a season you should be a little higher than that. It means you’re on the ice for a LOT of goals against and less goals for. Doesn’t matter why it isn’t a good stat maybe over 1 season but over 5-6 seasons I think it says a lot about the kind of player you are. Look at the players bellow. Who of these would you say is a good player?


Tyson Barrie -66
Cody ceci -53
Jake Muzzin +47
Roman Polak +8
Pietrangelo +77
Webber +88
Subban + 29 ( 1 really bad season at -21..guess which one)

Honestly, the numbers don’t lie...I would give Subban 1 year on this team. He didn’t fit in with the devils but I think he fits the bill here. He is waaay more sound defensively then Barrie (not by much but he is historically better). Polak...not a good D but a better D then Ceci and Barrie.

Well said! Hey, Dekes For Days, I approve this message!

 

[TheScandal89]

I would support a player like Max Domi, but he would have to come with maybe 2 other sandpaper forwards we could then create a unit out of. Too many of the drop in the bucket type moves and it won't push the needle. AJ, Kap, Kerfoot are all low hanging fruit in terms of not bringing any special ingredients you'd like to swap out.

Definitely, there is no 1 player fix for this team, we need a few. Its not the NBA after all lol

 

[Stephen]

Barrie’s whole career has been all offence. And as far as +/- goes, watching Barrie play in his own end is proof enough! Also, if +/- is so useless and isn’t representative of defensive ability, what about Jake Muzzin?

And you do realize that Trotz now coaches the Islanders (this is his 2nd season), so he made that comment regarding his Islanders’ team, not the Capitals! And the point he was making (you do realize that every team gets cycled on occasionally, right?), is that the Islanders give up very few QUALITY scoring chances. Again, sound, defensive structure. If you watched many games, you might see the difference!

Defensive structure allows a team to get cycled with relative safety. There might be a lot of time spent in the defensive end, but that structure is able to keep most of the activity to the outside of the dots and above the circle. When the when play falls below the goal line, it's met with a lot of physical play along the boards, creating the opportunity to retrieve the puck. Similarly, odd angle, shots from the outside are not the worst thing, because your guys are in position to get to any rebounds. Cheesy American broadcasts like to say "protecting the house!" when this happens.

This is a bit different from when a defensively poor team gets cycled in panic mode fashion, which pulls defenders apart, opens up seams for passes and openings in the slot for guys to sneak in for garbage goals with more regularity.

 

[Rondo Hatton]

This the 4th season played since finishing dead last. I like what Shanahan has assembled and I think Dubas is being unfairly roasted by a Leaf hating media. We're close and I've waited as long as anyone alive for the Leafs to reach the finals and hoist the cup. 4 years since we were the worst. Yeah there has been playoff heartbreak but jettisoning top tier talent to satisfy critics is stupid and old Leaf style. I can wait a few years too bad the children here can't

 

[shortfuze]

I never saw Barrie on his game while wearing blue & white. I'll have to take your word for it

And I never saw Kadri playing more than 2-3 games in a playoff series.

 

[Shanwhatplan]

This the 4th season played since finishing dead last. I like what Shanahan has assembled and I think Dubas is being unfairly roasted by a Leaf hating media. We're close and I've waited as long as anyone alive for the Leafs to reach the finals and hoist the cup. 4 years since we were the worst. Yeah there has been playoff heartbreak but jettisoning top tier talent to satisfy critics is stupid and old Leaf style. I can wait a few years too bad the children here can't

So you’re saying it’s entirely possible to be a realistic Cup contender, for many years, with practically 50% of your cap being used on 4 forwards? Sorry, but I just don’t think that’s doable. Our defence needs help, we need a legitimate shutdown line, including a 3rd line center.
Dubas can only do so much bargain bin shopping, and expect to fill these holes properly. You get some good deals at the Dollar Store, but all in all, you usually get what you pay for.

 

[Nylander88]

And I never saw Kadri playing more than 2-3 games in a playoff series.

-He played all 7 in 2012-2013 vs Boston
-He played all 6 in 2016-2017 vs Washington
-He played 4 games against Boston in 2017-2018

The only one where your statement holds true is last season's playoffs. New fan are you?

 

[Shanwhatplan]

Goalies are important, but signing 4 is an inefficient use of cap space and roster spots that would sacrifice the rest of the team. You still would have no guarantees of great overall play from those goalies, and you would be forcing them to be that much better to keep you afloat.

Yet if Dubas decided to do this, you would be singing his praises, and finding all kinds of useless stats to support it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

when you’re an offensive Dman that’s y typically hits 40-50 points a season you should be a little higher than that.

But you don't get a + for every type of point, and he played on some horrible rebuilding Colorado teams. There are better ways to say you don't like Barrie defensively than the worst stat in the history of stats.

And as far as +/- goes, watching Barrie play in his own end is proof enough!

He's not a defensive defenseman, but his weakness are overblown. Whether you personally like him or the style of defenseman he is is irrelevant. The point is that he was a top 4 defenseman when we acquired him, so that's not "ignoring the defense" like you claimed. It's also not his only move to address the defense.

And you do realize that Trotz now coaches the Islanders (this is his 2nd season), so he made that comment regarding his Islanders’ team, not the Capitals!

Yes, I do realize that, but you mentioned the Capitals and said that Trotzs teams play a certain way. Washington was weak defensively in the year they won.

And the point he was making (you do realize that every team gets cycled on occasionally, right?), is that the Islanders give up very few QUALITY scoring chances. Again, sound, defensive structure.

But spending extended periods of time in the defensive zone isn't good defensive structure, so the quote you referenced doesn't make sense. Also, the Islanders are not very good at preventing high quality chances. There are other aspects of defense they are good at, but that's not really one of them.

Yet if Dubas decided to do this, you would be singing his praises, and finding all kinds of useless stats to support it.

No, signing 4 goalies for 5m each is not a good move. It has nothing to do with who does it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Hockey models do not provide you with accurate information so your decisions may be EVEN WORSE.

They are accurate.

Clearly there is a multitude of problems such as the leafs that prove the models need work.

Models don't need to confirm a bias to be right.

You haven't addressed any of the problems I've pointed out

I haven't seen you address any actual problems.