Proposal: Mantha for a top 10 pick

[WingsMJN2965]

1) 27<30. 27 goal rate is less than 30 goals at minimum. He's also never hit 50 points, let alone 60 minimum.
2) Injuries aren't an excuse when you're claiming totals. Some players get injured more than others. Some players can't seem to stay healthy. Just use the rate argument if you want to account for injuries, but lets not pretend that Mantha is definitely going to give you at least 30 goals and 60 points a year at minimum.

What part of increasing year over year wasn't clear?

But you're right. Guy who had 38 points in 43 games isn't a 50 point player. Assuming he could do that is ridiculous.

 

[Captain Mountain]

What part of increasing year over year wasn't clear?

So you're telling me that its not crazy to expect nothing less than 30 goals and 60 points from Mantha here on out? Despite the fact that he's only been healthy one season and only paced for 60 points a year? Really?

 

[WingsMJN2965]

So you're telling me that its not crazy to expect nothing less than 30 goals and 60 points from Mantha here on out? Despite the fact that he's only been healthy one season and only paced for 60 points a year? Really?

You're telling me that it's crazy to expect a guy with non-concussion, non-ligament injuries is gonna continue to miss 20+ games a year every year for the rest of his career?

OK.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

So you're telling me that its not crazy to expect nothing less than 30 goals and 60 points from Mantha here on out? Despite the fact that he's only been healthy one season and only paced for 60 points a year? Really?

Yet your board is drooling over Mantha, This coming from a person who says that Mantha isn't worth anymore then smurf Domi. Got news for you pal regardless if Mantha is in Detroit or Montreal minimally he's going to get at least 5x$6.5 mill if not more we'll gladly keep him and you can keep your smurf Domi.

 

[Captain Mountain]

You're telling me that it's crazy to expect a guy with non-concussion, non-ligament injuries is gonna continue to miss 20+ games a year every year for the rest of his career?

OK.

No, I'm saying that its crazy to think that guy that has missed at least 15 games a season for most of his NHL career will suddenly always be healthy and always provide at least 30 goals and 60 points.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

No, I'm saying that its crazy to think that guy that has missed at least 15 games a season for most of his NHL career will suddenly always be healthy and always provide at least 30 goals and 60 points.

Man, if every player who's ever broken a hand or a rib is at serious risk of non-stop future injuries this entire league is f***ed.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Yet your board is drooling over Mantha, This coming from a person who says that Mantha isn't worth anymore then smurf Domi. Got news for you pal regardless if Mantha is in Detroit or Montreal minimally he's going to get at least 5x$6.5 mill if not more we'll gladly keep him and you can keep your smurf Domi.

I like Mantha a lot too, I just think expecting him to stay healthy and giving you at least 30 goals and 60 points is probably overly optimistic.

I'm also not really sure why you feel the need to call Domi a smurf or what he has to do with the minimum expectations of Mantha.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Man, if every player who's ever broken a hand or a rib is at serious risk of non-stop future injuries this entire league is f***ed.

But the argument isn't non-stop future injuries, its any injuries. For Mantha to be guaranteed at least 30 goals and 60 points a season, based on his best seasonal rate, he needs to basically never miss games again or be guaranteed another leap in production.

 

[Hammettf2b]

No, I'm saying that its crazy to think that guy that has missed at least 15 games a season for most of his NHL career will suddenly always be healthy and always provide at least 30 goals and 60 points.

tbf, a lot of his injuries could have easily been avoided had he not chosen not to fight. It's not like its a recurring body part that keeps giving him trouble. It's determination to fight that gets him in trouble. I think that would be easier to fix than a lingering injury imo.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I like Mantha a lot too, I just think expecting him to stay healthy and giving you at least 30 goals and 60 points is probably overly optimistic.

I'm also not really sure why you feel the need to call Domi a smurf or what he has to do with the minimum expectations of Mantha.

But you make him sound like he's made of glass or something, 2 broken hands from fighting and broken ribs and punctured lung due to him being slew footed by Jake Muzzin. I'm sorry but that's hardly injury prone it's just very unfortunate injury's over the course of this year he was easily on pace for a 72 point season 38 points in 43 games is pretty good in my book. While we agree he needs to stay healthy realistically 30/30 seasons shouldn't be out of the question and that's minimally. Hey 48 points on a team that has troubles scoring isn't anything to laugh at.

 

[wintersej]

Don't see it. He's worth it IMO, but it's unlikely to find a contender with a top 10 pick. If they decide to trade Mantha it's for a top prospect+. I don't think he's going to be traded for 2 or 3 years minimum.

Mantha has 32G 40A in his last 82 games beginning Jan 6/2019.

This post alludes to an important point. What kind of teams are going to be looking to add Mantha?

What team with a top 10 pick has a specific hole at #1RW? Several!

What team also thinks they are close enough to their window to invest in Mantha's UFA years instead of drafting a Holtz? I could see Buffalo or New Jersey wanting to take more of a win now approach.

What team also wants Mantha SPECIFICALLY over other free options like Hoffman, Dadonov, Toffoli, Granlund or Hall? I dunno. But seems like a reasonable person would want to take a shot at getting a player they don't have to give up a pick for. And while you can say "yeah but Mantha comes with control and those other guys are UFAs!"... but any deal for Mantha assumes there is an extension buying out the UFA years, so what is the difference? Any trade for Mantha would have to come with an extension at market rate which means he is going to have a say in where he is dealt. Personally, I would roll the dice and see if I could keep my pick and grab one of the other guys.

 

[Marky9er]

This post alludes to an important point. What kind of teams are going to be looking to add Mantha?

What team with a top 10 pick has a specific hole at #1RW? Several!

What team also thinks they are close enough to their window to invest in Mantha's UFA years instead of drafting a Holtz? I could see Buffalo or New Jersey wanting to take more of a win now approach.

What team also wants Mantha SPECIFICALLY over other free options like Hoffman, Dadonov, Toffoli, Granlund or Hall? I dunno. But seems like a reasonable person would want to take a shot at getting a player they don't have to give up a pick for. And while you can say "yeah but Mantha comes with control and those other guys are UFAs!"... its only one year of control until Mantha is a UFA. Any trade for Mantha would have to come with an extension at market rate. Personally, I would roll the dice and see if I could keep my pick and grab one of the other guys.

Detroit may as well try and get best deal long/longish term with Mantha and if rebuild doesn't move along fast enough, visit a trade down the line.

If someone wants to come along offering something based on an Alex Newhook, then let's chat. But maybe we'll get to see Newhook on NHL ice first as well. It's too soon.

 

[ole ole]

Yeah, thing is most GMs aren't ridiculous enough to label a guy as a sub 50 point player when he's also missed multiple games in multiple seasons...

That's like valuing Auston Matthews as a 70 point player up until this year.

Or Domi as a 40 pt player.

 

[ole ole]

Any GM willing to trade a top 10 pick straight up for Mantha should be fired immediately...

It wouldn't just be a top 10 pick for Mantha, it would be a top 10 pick + cap space for Mantha

Now, if Detroit were willing to take back a bad contract, say, Okposo + #8 for Mantha, then it could be justified

See this is the problem with trading picks.
Like he said...It wouldn't just be a top 10 pick for Mantha, it would be a top 10 pick + cap space for Mantha

 

[Marky9er]

IMO Mantha is worth more than Detroit's own 4OA. He's a proven producer, the pick is no sure thing at 4 let alone 8 or 10. Detroit has very few assets of value, they better hold on to that one.

Lafreniere-Mantha dream has moved east,but we can dream something new another time.

 

[njx9]

I don't know what I'd move Mantha for, but I'd be very open to moving him, from Detroit's perspective. Missing out on a top C in this draft, and having no elite talent coming (from all appearances, a lot could certainly change), I think this team is far enough out that Mantha is no longer part of the core, and I don't think it benefits the team to hang onto him. I don't know that I move him tomorrow for magic beans, and I'm probably more inclined than I was to wait till next offseason to see if he was able to stay healthy/raise his value (or, if not, see where his UFA contract demands are), but I'm certainly listening to every single offer anyone wants to make. Missing on Byfield and Stutzle, I think, puts this team a lot further from being relevant than fans want to think.

 

[Meeqs]

This years draft is stacked with high end forwards and Mantha is already 25 and not even under contract.

So while I do think that there could be some cases for a team trying to win now possibly preferring a player that can help them now, I don't think there is a single team that would actually ever consider that type of move. Especially looking through recent history those picks aren't moved and should Det look to move him they would have to go for a more quantity approach than simply just a high end pick, at least one that is that high in such a strong draft that will have similar players available

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

IMO Mantha is worth more than Detroit's own 4OA. He's a proven producer, the pick is no sure thing at 4 let alone 8 or 10. Detroit has very few assets of value, they better hold on to that one.

Lafreniere-Mantha dream has moved east,but we can dream something new another time.

so just to be clear you think Mantha is worth a top 3 draft pick?

I like the player but thats kind of insane to me

 

[Tetsuo]

I don't know what I'd move Mantha for, but I'd be very open to moving him, from Detroit's perspective. Missing out on a top C in this draft, and having no elite talent coming (from all appearances, a lot could certainly change), I think this team is far enough out that Mantha is no longer part of the core, and I don't think it benefits the team to hang onto him. I don't know that I move him tomorrow for magic beans, and I'm probably more inclined than I was to wait till next offseason to see if he was able to stay healthy/raise his value (or, if not, see where his UFA contract demands are), but I'm certainly listening to every single offer anyone wants to make. Missing on Byfield and Stutzle, I think, puts this team a lot further from being relevant than fans want to think.

I agree, but I think it is at minimum one or two seasons early to even be having this conversation. Hopefully we sign Mantha for cheap and after he proves his worth we can sell high in a few years.

 

[Marky9er]

so just to be clear you think Mantha is worth a top 3 draft pick?

I like the player but thats kind of insane to me

No, that's not what i said. Mantha doesn't need to be traded is what I said. If I were betting on which asset would become an 80 point forward, Mantha or our 4OA I'd bet on Mantha. He's scored 72 points in his last 82 GP, and Cole Perfetti (hello Cosentino talk) might completely bust.

 

[Captain Mountain]

tbf, a lot of his injuries could have easily been avoided had he not chosen not to fight. It's not like its a recurring body part that keeps giving him trouble. It's determination to fight that gets him in trouble. I think that would be easier to fix than a lingering injury imo.

But that's his play-style. Mantha gets injured because of the way he plays. And he's good because of the way he plays. You have to accept it and just hope he doesn't get hurt. But expecting him to always be healthy is not realistic.

But you make him sound like he's made of glass or something, 2 broken hands from fighting and broken ribs and punctured lung due to him being slew footed by Jake Muzzin. I'm sorry but that's hardly injury prone it's just very unfortunate injury's over the course of this year he was easily on pace for a 72 point season 38 points in 43 games is pretty good in my book. While we agree he needs to stay healthy realistically 30/30 seasons shouldn't be out of the question and that's minimally. Hey 48 points on a team that has troubles scoring isn't anything to laugh at.

Mantha's injuries come about because of how he approaches the game and the way he plays. He's also really effective because of how he approaches the game and the way he plays the game. You can't divorce one from the other. Mantha isn't going to miss serious time every season, but its not unrealistic to expect that the way he plays wont lead to further injuries. And pace for half a season does not equal the minimum one can expect from him going forward. It just doesn't.

and the phrase "realistically 30/30 seasons shouldn't be out of the question and that's minimally" doesn't make any sense when you're taking issue to me challenging that he's "100% a 30 goal, 60 pt guy minimum". I don't think 30/30 season(s) are out of the question either, but that isn't his floor.

 

[Hammettf2b]

But that's his play-style. Mantha gets injured because of the way he plays. And he's good because of the way he plays. You have to accept it and just hope he doesn't get hurt. But expecting him to always be healthy is not realistic.



Mantha's injuries come about because of how he approaches the game and the way he plays. He's also really effective because of how he approaches the game and the way he plays the game. You can't divorce one from the other. Mantha isn't going to miss serious time every season, but its not unrealistic to expect that the way he plays wont lead to further injuries. And pace for half a season does not equal the minimum one can expect from him going forward. It just doesn't.

and the phrase "realistically 30/30 seasons shouldn't be out of the question and that's minimally" doesn't make any sense when you're taking issue to me challenging that he's "100% a 30 goal, 60 pt guy minimum". I don't think 30/30 season(s) are out of the question either, but that isn't his floor.

He fights because no one else on the team is willing to do it. Do you think Mantha gets in all those fights if he were playing with Tom Wilson or a similar player?

 

[Captain Mountain]

He fights because no one else on the team is willing to do it. Do you think Mantha gets in all those fights if he were playing with Tom Wilson or a similar player?

Probably. No one HAS to fight. Even Mantha doesn't fight that much. He engages because of how he approaches the game.

 

[67Leafs67]

It depends a lot on what pick. A "top ten" pick is not specific enough. The difference in value between pick #1 and #10 can be pretty huge, as draft pick value shrinks exponentially between picks.

Mantha is a fantastic player, but he's yet to have a healthy, full season, and is already 25 years old, and will be 26 when 2020-21 starts. Using point shares as a crude evaluation, he still has about the same projected value left in his career as your average 10th best player taken in any given draft. However, that is accounting for only the remainder of Mantha's career (~10-14 seasons) against that pick's entire career. Of course Mantha is ~8 years older and further into his career, but will be better on a per season basis than your average 10th best player available in a draft.

The other factor to consider is the risk. A 10th overall pick is no guarantee, but that could go either way. It could exceed expectations, but just as easily could bust. Look back on the 10th overall picks of the 2000s - Dylan McIlrath, Magnus Paajarvi, Cody Hodgson, Keaton Ellerby, Michael Frolik, Boris Valabik, Andrei Kostitsyn, Eric Nystrom, Dan Blackburn, Mikhail Yakubov...every single 10th overall pick between 2000-2010 was a bust. At the same time, it is a bit risky for the team trading the pick. You might hit a Jonas Brodin or Mikko Rantanen. Meanwhile with Mantha, you know you have an elite scoring winger already, there isn't a huge risk that he's going to suddenly drop off a cliff at age 25.

Here's a chart comparing Anthony Mantha's projected remaining value (assuming he remains relatively healthy, and retires after his age 38 season, when his point shares drops below 1.0) to the career value of your average best player available (assuming the same career length as Mantha), second best player, etc, in any given draft year. The values are in point shares, just a rough value metric from Hockey-Reference.

Player​	Proj. Value Remaining​	Proj. Seasons Remaining​	PS/Season​
Best in DY​	~166.23​	18​	~9.23​
2nd in DY​	~138.70​	18​	~7.71​
3rd in DY​	~122.73​	18​	~6.82​
4th in DY​	~109.93​	18​	~6.11​
5th in DY​	~100.53​	18​	~5.58​
6th in DY​	~93.29​	18​	~5.18​
7th in DY​	~86.83​	18​	~4.81​
8th in DY​	~80.56​	18​	~4.48​
9th in DY​	~74.64​	18​	~4.15​
10th in DY​	~70.79​	18​	~3.93​
Anthony Mantha​	~70.90​	13​	~5.45​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So, in an average draft, the 6th to 10th best players will be worse than Mantha will be for the remainder of his career, but given that they are ~8 years younger, they will provide more value over the long haul of their careers. The 1st to 5th best players in any draft will be better than Mantha, and also play longer, so trading a top five pick for Mantha seems somewhat ludicrous.

 

[Hammettf2b]

Probably. No one HAS to fight. Even Mantha doesn't fight that much. He engages because of how he approaches the game.

I respectfully disagree. He approaches the game as the physical presence of the team because he's the only one who can. If the Wings had a tough guy on the team still, it wouldn't be an issue. Hell, even Larkin is fighting on occasion. That shows you the lack of protection this team has. Give them a Tom Wilson or a Kyle Clifford and you would never see Mantha or Larkin fighting again.