Lets talk about William Nylander.

[crump]

These playoffs will go a long way to establishing a contract. Right now I would haggle him down to 5.5 million, but if he steps up his game and can show he can produce in the playoffs (help us go deep and 15-20 points) he'll get over 6 no doubt.

 

[Mess]

I think the best comparable for Nylander's next contract is what David Pastrnak got from the Bruins which is $6,666,666 million AAV for six years.

Except statistically Nylander is not a comparable (equal) of goals, assists or points compared to Pastrnak, falling below his totals last season or this one.

Nylander could fall between Ehlers and Pastrnak in terms of contract.

Leafs management also got to see Nylander (without Matthews) and his impact and production fell off without him, so how much is Auston influencing Nylander statistically will be something management uses as a bargaining chip in contract talks.

Willy has this years playoffs to solidify his next deal by how much impact he has in them.

 

[Gallagbi]

his 1 trick is being a very good hockey player

Useless once they figure that out

 

[Nithoniniel]

We are in a great situation with Willy. The statistical basis favors a cheaper deal, even though there are plenty of reasons to expect that to change going forward. The worry is that his camp realizes this and ops for a bridge deal.

 

[Leafsfan13]

I don’t see how Nylander gets Pastrnak money. Pastrnak had 34g and 70 points last year and is gonna score over 30 this year at a ppg pace. Nylander might not even get 20 goals this year.

 

[Swedish Gretzky]

8 years x 6 million

 

[Liminality]

I think the best comparable for Nylander's next contract is what David Pastrnak got from the Bruins which is $6,666,666 million AAV for six years.

I agree, It was after his ELC too. Looking at Pastrnak's caphit %, that was 8.89% of the cap in 2017. When the cap goes up to around 80m the equivalent would be 7.1m for Nylander. I think it'll be around 6.8-7.1 in the end.

 

[zeke]

Why pay a premium for a guy who will not top 25 goals and is a total non factor in the playoffs? .

in the playoffs, Willy was 2nd on the team in scoring, led the team in shots, led the team in cf%, and led the team in xgf%, all while going up against the caps top line all series.

 

[Liminality]

I don’t see how Nylander gets Pastrnak money. Pastrnak had 34g and 70 points last year and is gonna score over 30 this year at a ppg pace. Nylander might not even get 20 goals this year.

Looking at points I think it's close.

Pastrnak
2014-15
NHL 46 gp 27p
AHL 25gp 28p

2015-16
NHL 51gp 26p
AHL 3gp 4p

2016-17
NHL 75gp 70p

Nylander
2014-15
SHL 21gp 20p
AHL 37gp 32p

2015-16
NHL 22gp 13p
AHL 38gp 45p

2016-17
NHL 81gp 61p

2017-18
NHL 75gp 54p

Nylander had a slide year to extend his ELC so we get an extra year to evaluate Nylander for his contract. Pastrnak has one good NHL year to go off of to make his contract while Nylander has two decent years. Pastrnak's one year is better than either of Nylanders years though.

Maybe Nylander will get more of a Ehlers caphit % of 8% which would be 6.4m now if the cap goes to 80m.

 

[Liminality]

We are in a great situation with Willy. The statistical basis favors a cheaper deal, even though there are plenty of reasons to expect that to change going forward. The worry is that his camp realizes this and ops for a bridge deal.

Yeah, just imagine if he got the same amount of PP points in his first year during this year. He'd be up around 70 points by the end of the season.

 

[DatSnipeMatthews]

Why pay a premium for a guy who will not top 25 goals and is a total non factor in the playoffs? Leafs should be looking to unload him for a defenseman.

Soft, one trick ponies, who play on the perimeter are not that hard to find.

Who the heck pissed in your cereal?

 

[justafan22]

Look at his comparables. The best case for the leafs is he gets 5.5 million.

 

[diceman934]

He is not a 7m plus a year player. His slots in at 6m per on a long term deal and less then that at less term.

I say he gets a short term contract if we see him as a center and a longer term deal if we see him as a winger. He has only played a limited amount of games as a center and he will need to establish value as a center so that we can slot him in on the pay scale he deserves.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Didn't poulin say frattin was going to bring the leafs to the Promise Land..lol

 

[thewave]

He is not a 7m plus a year player. His slots in at 6m per on a long term deal and less then that at less term.

I say he gets a short term contract if we see him as a center and a longer term deal if we see him as a winger. He has only played a limited amount of games as a center and he will need to establish value as a center so that we can slot him in on the pay scale he deserves.

I don't think we are buying any UFA years other than on Matthews. In this economic climate it doesn't make sense. The next CBA could very well be a claw back.

 

[IPS]

Ehlers is obviously his closest comparable. How the hell can he negotiate Pastrnak type money?

From a young player's perspective, 6x7 is an awesome deal - you're guaranteed a sizeable payday no matter what.

 

[Menzinger]

Leafs caught a huge break with that 2nd pp unit being so lousy this year - particularly for Nylander’s contract negotiations. His even strength scoring has been great - next season with just a mild increase in Pp production (which should be expected) his scoring will likely increase quite a bit.

He’ll likely get in the range of Elhers-Pasta. The rising cap will give his contract a bit of a boost too.

 

[LeafsFan89]

Leafs caught a huge break with that 2nd pp unit being so lousy this year - particularly for Nylander’s contract negotiations. His even strength scoring has been great - next season with just a mild increase in Pp production (which should be expected) his scoring will likely increase quite a bit.

He’ll likely get in the range of Elhers-Pasta. The rising cap will give his contract a bit of a boost too.

I want the Leafs to pay for what William Nylander is currently, not what he will be potentially. There is a chance that Nylander stays the same as he is now. There is always a chance he regresses. Now I believe these are very unlikely. But if you pay on potential, most players never live up to the over-payment.

 

[1specter]

Why pay a premium for a guy who will not top 25 goals and is a total non factor in the playoffs? Leafs should be looking to unload him for a defenseman.

Soft, one trick ponies, who play on the perimeter are not that hard to find.

Did you even watch the playoffs last year?

 

[Daisy Jane]

We are in a great situation with Willy. The statistical basis favors a cheaper deal, even though there are plenty of reasons to expect that to change going forward. The worry is that his camp realizes this and ops for a bridge deal.

that's not a worry. i'd take will at a bridge deal, take advantage of that in the UFA market then happily pay Will what he's worth 3 yrs later.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Everyone needs to remember that Nylander has extra RFA year left than most of his comparables(Ehlers, Pastrnak), so the same length contract would comparatively be cheaper if everything else was exactly the same. There's a big difference between a contract eating up RFA years 4 through 7, and UFA years 1 through 3 compared to RFA years 3 through 7, and UFA years 1 and 2. That 3rd RFA year is much much much cheaper than the 3rd UFA year. The very next year of Nylander(in theory, he won't sign a year deal obviously) would only be worth around 3-4 million. 1 UFA year in your prime is worth perhaps 8 million or more. That's a difference of 4-5 million on the total value of the contract.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Did you even watch the playoffs last year?

I'd be shocked if he watches the games. He just likes to shit on the team

 

[Menzinger]

I want the Leafs to pay for what William Nylander is currently, not what he will be potentially. There is a chance that Nylander stays the same as he is now. There is always a chance he regresses. Now I believe these are very unlikely. But if you pay on potential, most players never live up to the over-payment.

But potential always comes into account in these negotiations , at least if the contract is going to be more than 1-2 seasons.

I’d say the odds of Him regressing are near minimum. There’s been nothing suggestingbhes been over achieving so far (ie inflated sh%), if anything the evidence seems to suggest he’s actually under-produced from what he should.

 

[Jozay]

6-6.5 x 7 seems about right. Probably closer to 6 than 6.5.

 

[GardinerTheForward]

Why pay a premium for a guy who will not top 25 goals and is a total non factor in the playoffs? Leafs should be looking to unload him for a defenseman.

Soft, one trick ponies, who play on the perimeter are not that hard to find.

Do you want people to put you on their ignore lists?