OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 2)

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japhi

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Jul 7, 2014
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Guy (Michael Burry) who made a huge profit on shorting the derivatives market in 2008 says he's shorting Telsa bcause he's sure it's a house of cards that will crumble.

Well ya, they have a 1% share of global auto sales and have a market cap bigger then all of the NA producers combined. Not profitable on car sales, all profit in Q1 was derived from sales of BTC and energy credits. What could possibly go wrong?
 
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Lafleurs Guy

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Bitcoin reminds me of the .com boom. Nothing behind it, just faith that people would buy it because it was a .com.

A lot of people got rich from it because they knew when to get out. We'll see with crypto. Maybe it's the real deal but there's nothing behind it. And all it takes is a guy like Musk to say he's going to accept this one but not that one to tank one of them. There's really nothing solid guaranteeing value here.
 

LyricalLyricist

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Aug 21, 2007
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Bitcoin reminds me of the .com boom. Nothing behind it, just faith that people would buy it because it was a .com.

A lot of people got rich from it because they knew when to get out. We'll see with crypto. Maybe it's the real deal but there's nothing behind it. And all it takes is a guy like Musk to say he's going to accept this one but not that one to tank one of them. There's really nothing solid guaranteeing value here.

Thats exactly my issue.

When you make money no one cares but if there’s a risk to lose money I’d rather lose on something I understood better.

At a certain point, if I’m gambling I’d save the stress by just actually gambling.
 
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Lafleurs Guy

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Jul 20, 2007
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Thats exactly my issue.

When you make money no one cares but if there’s a risk to lose money I’d rather lose on something I understood better.

At a certain point, if I’m gambling I’d save the stress by just actually gambling.
There's no doubt you can make money and even get rich. But damn, you're taking a real chance.

With the growth stocks that I'm in, at least I know that the earnings are insane. Those companies might be overvalued and there will be volatility but they're making money hand over fist. There's a reason I invested in them.

With bitcoin or whatever, it really is a speculative play based on... I don't know what. You might as well be at the roulette table.

Speaking of growth stocks, I'm going to wait on upcoming earnings. Hoping for a bump. If that happens I might take an exit with some small profits. I think it's going to be volatile for a while and I might as well try to get back in with a better entry point.
 

Scintillating10

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Jun 15, 2012
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If you're not feeling well, you probably had a bit too much of your investable money in Bitcoin. It's a normal human behavior when something is down to feel like selling it all.

Personally, I might buy a bit more since it's 'cheap' vs. what it was a few weeks ago. But that's me. It could very well keep going down.

I have invested something like 500$ in Bitcoin, and it's down down 50-60 bucks, so I might just reinvest so that the total value is 500$.

If I were you I would not do anything drastic, unless you feel like giving up on Bitcoin. If you want to lower your exposure, do it little by little over the next coming weeks. Unless you're done with Bitcoin, because then you might as well just sell everything and move on to something else.

99% of the time, the best move is to do nothing.
I quite bit more invested in bitcoin. Probably too much, regret it now.

Sounds like Musk will go to a coin war with bitcoin. For his own global currency. Not going to be good for bitcoin. Be a mess. Unsure how outcome will be? Gamble and stay or sell out now and take loss, 20% or so.
 

llamateizer

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Mar 16, 2007
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I quite bit more invested in bitcoin. Probably too much, regret it now.

Sounds like Musk will go to a coin war with bitcoin. For his own global currency. Not going to be good for bitcoin. Be a mess. Unsure how outcome will be? Gamble and stay or sell out now and take loss, 20% or so.

Do not sell at loss. (not financial advice heh)
Musk is not at war over BTC.
he is at war over China.

Musk wants miner to use renewable energy for BTC. He is pressuring to increase green energy.
Musk isn't wrong
 

LyricalLyricist

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Aug 21, 2007
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Anyone feel like last year is unsustainable?

In last 6 months I’m at around ~80% return and I’m starting to wonder if I peaked. I’m wondering if at any point a bubble will appear and I’ll be foolishly still in.
 

Crusher117

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Feb 2, 2013
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Anyone feel like last year is unsustainable?

In last 6 months I’m at around ~80% return and I’m starting to wonder if I peaked. I’m wondering if at any point a bubble will appear and I’ll be foolishly still in.
IMO, we have one last short bull run left before we see a strong correction, I'm thinking of trimming all my positions between 50% to 75% by July. I do believe that Canadian stocks will outperform US stocks in the next 12 months tho. But I ain't no expert, just been investing for the last 4 years.
 

Grate n Colorful Oz

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Bitcoin reminds me of the .com boom. Nothing behind it, just faith that people would buy it because it was a .com.

A lot of people got rich from it because they knew when to get out. We'll see with crypto. Maybe it's the real deal but there's nothing behind it. And all it takes is a guy like Musk to say he's going to accept this one but not that one to tank one of them. There's really nothing solid guaranteeing value here.

Most people misconstrue crypto because they don't understand it. Most people think the prices are solely ballooned by speculation.

After researching the subject, I can tell you whether BTC goes down, cryptos are here to stay. It's gonna be a generational bullish market.

Here's what most people don't get: the speculation is fueled by rising volumes of trades. And those volumes of trades (trades that use crypto as a currency, not the simple buying and selling of coins) are related to which markets they are used for.

Saying there's nothing behind it is you filling the gaps because you don't understand what's behind it. In layman's term, it was created to democratize money exchange and to eliminate 3rd party parasites that take cuts on trades. Those cuts end-up in the crypto instead.
 
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LyricalLyricist

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IMO, we have one last short bull run left before we see a strong correction, I'm thinking of trimming all my positions between 50% to 75% by July. I do believe that Canadian stocks will outperform US stocks in the next 12 months tho. But I ain't no expert, just been investing for the last 4 years.

I only do Canadian stocks and I think I have a little more to squeeze out with my stocks but also don’t want to wait too long.

I’ve only invested for a year and the stuff I’ve invested in I can count on my fingers. Majority of which are well known companies and relatively stable but I am concerned that I’m overestimating my target or that it will be short lived.
 

Crusher117

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Feb 2, 2013
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Montreal
I only do Canadian stocks and I think I have a little more to squeeze out with my stocks but also don’t want to wait too long.

I’ve only invested for a year and the stuff I’ve invested in I can count on my fingers. Majority of which are well known companies and relatively stable but I am concerned that I’m overestimating my target or that it will be short lived.
Then follow your gut instinct, wait a little bit but set some stop losses. When you feel it's time to trim do it, be careful not to get too greedy.
 
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llamateizer

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Mar 16, 2007
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Montreal
IMO, we have one last short bull run left before we see a strong correction, I'm thinking of trimming all my positions between 50% to 75% by July. I do believe that Canadian stocks will outperform US stocks in the next 12 months tho. But I ain't no expert, just been investing for the last 4 years.

do you think the whole market is going to get correction or only some growths?
I'm talking about Dividends stocks and some value stocks.
 

llamateizer

Registered User
Mar 16, 2007
13,687
6,788
Montreal
Speculative and growth will get hit the hardest, but the entire market will probably pullback as whole.

Thanks for your input.

I have taken some money from my HELOC to invest in my dividends stocks (around 8%) .
already 10% unrealized gains + free monthly cash flow.

Time to think for a stop loss strategy.
Won't protect against crashes outside 9:30-16:00


It's been 1 year i'm in the stock market.
I have decent gains but unrealized. So a crash would reset my gains like what happened with T today
 

Crusher117

Registered User
Feb 2, 2013
2,152
2,474
Montreal
Thanks for your input.

I have taken some money from my HELOC to invest in my dividends stocks (around 8%) .
already 10% unrealized gains + free monthly cash flow.

Time to think for a stop loss strategy.
Won't protect against crashes outside 9:30-16:00


It's been 1 year i'm in the stock market.
I have decent gains but unrealized. So a crash would reset my gains like what happened with T today
Personally, I wouldn't put stop losses on dividend stocks since even if the market corrects, you still receive the dividends. But yeah a stop loss is your best friend in time of uncertainty, plus this summer you won't be watching the market all day as we go back to some normalcy.

My younger brother has learned the hard way how not to be greedy. He watched one of his stock 4x only to watch it crash back down to a simple 40% gain. And I had called him to trim since I was also holding the same stock and he never did. Gains are gains until they are realized and greed can be killer. One rule I learned, there is ALWAYS a dip after a run up. Always.
 
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Lafleurs Guy

Guuuuuuuy!
Jul 20, 2007
75,220
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Most people misconstrue crypto because they don't understand it. Most people think the prices are solely ballooned by speculation.

After researching the subject, I can tell you whether BTC goes down, cryptos are here to stay. It's gonna be a generational bullish market.

Here's what most people don't get: the speculation is fueled by rising volumes of trades. And those volumes of trades (trades that use crypto as a currency, not the simple buying and selling of coins) are related to which markets they are used for.

Saying there's nothing behind it is you filling the gaps because you don't understand what's behind it. In layman's term, it was created to democratize money exchange and to eliminate 3rd party parasites that take cuts on trades. Those cuts end-up in the crypto instead.
I don't doubt that crypto is here to stay in some form or another, just like the internet wasn't going anywhere in the .com boom. I can also understand the 'why' as to it being created and the purpose it serves.

But gov'ts back their currencies. There's something there to prop it up. If all that's behind crypto is trading, what happens when somebody like Musk starts encouraging people to use something else? "Bitcoin is ruining the environment"... okay, people stop buying it or trading with it. What's to prop it back up?

Look at the crazy swings in valuation... this is currency we're talking about. At some point people may decide that they don't need this shit and simply stop using it. There seem to be new cryptos being created all the time. Which ones will last and which ones will bite the dust? That's a lot like the .com boom. Amazon went on to fortune and glory but others went the way of the dino without any real value.
 

Grate n Colorful Oz

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Jun 12, 2007
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I don't doubt that crypto is here to stay in some form or another, just like the internet wasn't going anywhere in the .com boom. I can also understand the 'why' as to it being created and the purpose it serves.

But gov'ts back their currencies. There's something there to prop it up. If all that's behind crypto is trading, what happens when somebody like Musk starts encouraging people to use something else? "Bitcoin is ruining the environment"... okay, people stop buying it or trading with it. What's to prop it back up? Look at the crazy swings in valuation... this is currency we're talking about. At some point people may decide that they don't need this shit and simply stop using it.

I highly doubt that. Maybe BTC because other newer cryptos with better software will take over, but as a whole the crypto market serves for e-transactions, facilitating them compared to the alternatives of having to pass one or several intermediary agencies that suck out wealth and because of this, it will only just become bigger. I mean, even Amazon wants their own token because it's just a much better way to make online transactions. BTW, buy it as soon as it comes out, if Besos ever does that.

Btw, central banking currencies aren't backed by much. In Canada, fractional reserve requirements is 1/7 (unless it has changed since last I checked). In the US, it's even worst, 1/10 from Fed to Fed districts and the districts fraction it another 1/10, for a massive creater of inflation at 1/100 fractional reserve.

The tokens are backed by their accumulated wealth from transactions and from their use through transactions. Yeah there's a good chunk of value that comes from speculation, but as long as a token is used, it has value. Money is supposed to be an exchange mechanism anyway, it's not supposed to hold an inherent value. It's all debt anyway. How much is it now? The entire world money supply? Something like 200 trillion of debt. Cause that's all money is; debt. It's owed even though a greater portion of it was created out of thin air, just because faux-public fractional banking is accepted.
 

Lafleurs Guy

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Jul 20, 2007
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I highly doubt that. Maybe BTC because other newer cryptos with better software will take over, but as a whole the crypto market serves for e-transactions, facilitating them compared to the alternatives of having to pass one or several intermediary agencies that suck out wealth and because of this, it will only just become bigger. I mean, even Amazon wants their own token because it's just a much better way to make online transactions. BTW, buy it as soon as it comes out, if Besos ever does that.

Btw, central banking currencies aren't backed by much. In Canada, fractional reserve requirements is 1/7 (unless it has changed since last I checked). In the US, it's even worst, 1/10 from Fed to Fed districts and the districts fraction it another 1/10, for a massive creater of inflation at 1/100 fractional reserve.

The tokens are backed by their accumulated wealth from transactions and from their use through transactions. Yeah there's a good chunk of value that comes from speculation, but as long as a token is used, it has value. Money is supposed to be an exchange mechanism anyway, it's not supposed to hold an inherent value. It's all debt anyway. How much is it now? The entire world money supply? Something like 200 trillion of debt. Cause that's all money is; debt. It's owed even though a greater portion of it was created out of thin air, just because faux-public fractional banking is accepted.
Okay but how much should each bitcoin be worth? One dollar? Ten? Twenty thousand?

With stocks, I'm able to see quarterly earnings and growth trajectory. Those companies have revenues that I can tie to evaluate the company. I'm not sure how you do that here. I mean bitcoin can be 20k one day and then a few months later it's worth 3k...
 

Grate n Colorful Oz

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Jun 12, 2007
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Okay but how much should each bitcoin be worth? One dollar? Ten? Twenty thousand?

With stocks, I'm able to see quarterly earnings and growth trajectory. Those companies have revenues that I can tie to evaluate the company. I'm not sure how you do that here. I mean bitcoin can be 20k one day and then a few months later it's worth 3k...

The reason bitcoin is so volatile is because there are now a few thousand cryptos competing for an ever growing market and many of them are in fund raising or development periods. New adoptions raise the volume of trades and the price, while others leave the ship for other tokens, giving the opposite effect.

Most of the bigger cryptos give a good description of what their aims are and what they offer in terms of apps. It's pretty wide and varied. The run of the mill token will be a developer trying to offer a better solution in terms of the token product and related softwares, but then you've got all other sorts of tokens. Tokens made as a joke. Tokens for sports teams fans. Tokens for students. Tokens for scientists wanting to promote collaboration and idea sharing. Tokens meant solely to get a huge volume. It's just endless.

What I personally see is that use is expanding each and every month. More and more markets are turning to it to get rid of the financial middlemen cutting in on their bottom line. So I'm pretty sure it'll just keep growing. Better to invest in the mid-size ones now.
 

Lafleurs Guy

Guuuuuuuy!
Jul 20, 2007
75,220
45,101
The reason bitcoin is so volatile is because there are now a few thousand cryptos competing for an ever growing market and many of them are in fund raising or development periods. New adoptions raise the volume of trades and the price, while others leave the ship for other tokens, giving the opposite effect.

Most of the bigger cryptos give a good description of what their aims are and what they offer in terms of apps. It's pretty wide and varied. The run of the mill token will be a developer trying to offer a better solution in terms of the token product and related softwares, but then you've got all other sorts of tokens. Tokens made as a joke. Tokens for sports teams fans. Tokens for students. Tokens for scientists wanting to promote collaboration and idea sharing. Tokens meant solely to get a huge volume. It's just endless.

What I personally see is that use is expanding each and every month. More and more markets are turning to it to get rid of the financial middlemen cutting in on their bottom line.
Well, isn't that the same as the .com boom then? You had a bunch of sites that were never going anywhere but people invested in it. Isn't that exactly what's happening here with some of these cryptos that will never go anywhere?

Again, I'm not sure what's going to make one crypto better than another. And a guy like Musk can come in and manipulate things as well... Just seems super shady.
 
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