OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 2)

[QuebecPride]

All financial genius are warning about a major stock market crash coming. I never seen that many on board before. Even to the point of going public with it. That is what is worrying me. Ray Dalio, Elon Musk, Robert Kiyosaki, to name a few. Makes me think how bad is?

Robert Kiyosaki is not a finance genius. He's a perma bear and apparently not a good person at all. Don't listen to him.

You want an interesting take on the markets?

Here's one (no joke): The title is clickbait, but he's predicting 400% over the next decade for markets. And he's using actual data, not just an opinion.

Tom Lee on How the Stock Market Could Quadruple | The Compound & Friends #26 - YouTube

 

[LyricalLyricist]

Anyone considering going 100% cash should be aware of how inflation works. 1MM in cash by the end of 2022 will have the purchasing power of closer to 900k. And if the markets kick out another 11%, you opportunity cost would be around 100K. So a possible 200K swing and that 1MM.

To me inflation presents almost as much risk as a market correction. I still think the play here is to have a strong cash position but staying mostly invested. If there was an event, we know that the Fed will fire up the printers.

Last two -35% events corrected pretty quick. in 2020 the SP 500 lost 30% in Spring and finished the year up 18% for instance. Last year returned 27%. 1MM cash starting early 2020 would be worth less then 900K today, invested in a SP500 ETF closer to 1.5MM. 600K difference.

Inflation and the housing market are the biggest annoyances right now.

You could make good money on investments and still find your purchasing power reduced.

 

[japhi]

Inflation and the housing market are the biggest annoyances right now.

You could make good money on investments and still find your purchasing power reduced.

Yup, even at 10% growth you are barely beating inflation. Helps to have a mortgage at 1.75%, crazy that you can borrow 700K @ 5 percent less then inflation.

 

[Scintillating10]

To be fair, there have been cries of a major crash for almost two decades. On average, there has been a major correction every ten years. We sorta had one in 2020 (catalyst: pandemic) but we rebounded so fast the correction might as well not have happened at all. Then we pilled on unprecedented debt under a year or two instead of decades. What this had told us is that the government (and by government, I'm talking the US government since they drive the world economy) can kick the can as far, as quickly and as hard as they want (print $$$) to the point where the old rules need not apply. All this to say, we can go a long time before the world falls over. Eventually, the US would need to face the music but that could be weeks, months, years, even decades from now. Ray Dalio is incredibly smart and I think, in general, he's right, but he's maneuvered for the crash to happen at any time and can survive a decade-long wait. Can we wait that long? I know I can't. I need to accumulate wealth now and worry about wealth preservation later...since at this point, I don't have 'wealth' to preserve. So yeah, we are due for a crash but the government is determined to deal with it "not today". So I plan to deal with it "not today".

THose guys been in the business all their lives. Up to 50-60 years experience for guys like Dalio. when they all say same thing have to take notice.

Cathie Wood said 90% drop. Robert Kiyosaki says it will be 1929 like. Musk and and Dalio said it will be huge.

I have an idea many companies won't survive or never the same

 

[montreal]

Robert Kiyosaki is not a finance genius. He's a perma bear and apparently not a good person at all. Don't listen to him.

You want an interesting take on the markets?

Here's one (no joke): The title is clickbait, but he's predicting 400% over the next decade for markets. And he's using actual data, not just an opinion.

Tom Lee on How the Stock Market Could Quadruple | The Compound & Friends #26 - YouTube

Tom Lee is a perma bull though, every time i've ever heard him talk he is saying how this or that is going to take off. It's just like the perma bears like Marc Faber and the like. The markets are extremely hard to predict, doesn't mean you can't get lucky and get it right but I tend to not listen to anyone just make my own opinions.

I just saw where Ben Carlson was saying that 4 out of every 10 stocks listed on the NASD are down 50% or more from their 52 week highs. That's crazy and puts a ton of interesting things to buy at a discount, though those prices were driven way too high.

To me the most interesting thing is the just massive amount of cash sitting on the sidelines. With the most aggressive Fed in US history, that makes for a very interesting market.

 

[pepperMonkey]

Robert Kiyosaki is not a finance genius. He's a perma bear and apparently not a good person at all. Don't listen to him.

You want an interesting take on the markets?

Here's one (no joke): The title is clickbait, but he's predicting 400% over the next decade for markets. And he's using actual data, not just an opinion.

Tom Lee on How the Stock Market Could Quadruple | The Compound & Friends #26 - YouTube

Yip, Kiyosaki is a real estate investor. Talks a big talk but I would never think of him as a finance guru, nor a macroeconomics guru. And yeah, his videos are pretty much all ads for his services/courses/etc....and don't really like the guy. With that said, his "Rich Dad Poor Dad" book is classic and well worth a read.

 

[QuebecPride]

Tom Lee is a perma bull though, every time i've ever heard him talk he is saying how this or that is going to take off. It's just like the perma bears like Marc Faber and the like. The markets are extremely hard to predict, doesn't mean you can't get lucky and get it right but I tend to not listen to anyone just make my own opinions.

I just saw where Ben Carlson was saying that 4 out of every 10 stocks listed on the NASD are down 50% or more from their 52 week highs. That's crazy and puts a ton of interesting things to buy at a discount, though those prices were driven way too high.

To me the most interesting thing is the just massive amount of cash sitting on the sidelines. With the most aggressive Fed in US history, that makes for a very interesting market.

Markets are indeed hard to predict. The thing is, most of the time they go up. So the people trying to scare investors away from the markets are wrong most of the time too. Imagine someone in 2012 who thought Markets were overpriced and stayed on the sideline waiting for a big drop, he would have missed great returns all those years, until he might have bought in 2018, or maybe not, since he didn't know if it would keep dropping at the end of the year. I'm not even sure he would have invested in March/April 2020.

As some other poster said earlier. If you're set for life if you cash out, then by all means cash out. At least reduce your risk to markets. You really don't need to take that much risk anymore.

 

[pepperMonkey]

THose guys been in the business all their lives. Up to 50-60 years experience for guys like Dalio. when they all say same thing have to take notice.

Cathie Wood said 90% drop. Robert Kiyosaki says it will be 1929 like. Musk and and Dalio said it will be huge.

I have an idea many companies won't survive or never the same

Forget Kiyosaki. He's not a finance guy. He knows real estate and is an incredible salesman and sells his courses/services like a champ...but the last thing I would do is listen to his macroeconomic thoughts.
Cathie Wood, although I respect her a lot, we are talking about someones who's main ETF fund dropped 44%.
As for Musk, the dudes one of the greatest CEO's of this generation but he's not an economist.
Which leaves Dalio who I love to listen to. And he's right. The next big down turn, assuming the government can't save it, could be unprecedented. But he plays in decades, not years, not months, not weeks, not days. I listen to him...He's also guessing the US getting upended and taken over (economically) by the Chinese. And, at it's current state, Chinese stocks aren't investable (yes, debatable). At least not the ones we have access too. Sure, if I was a Chinese citizen in mainland China, I have access to some stocks I would love to invest in, but I don't have access to that exchange. And I am not going to put the majority of what little I have into Chinese ADR's. That said, I can also go full, Dalio All Weather portfolio...but the All Weather portfolio is something I would greatly consider if I was in wealth preservation mode which I certainly not.
Look at it this way, of those I would listen to (of those listed here), Dalio and Wood...they are in it for decades. I am also, but I need to accumulate hell more in the short run before I go all defensive and just hope the market doesn't throwup in the mean time. I just can't afford to be all defensive right now.

 

[japhi]

THose guys been in the business all their lives. Up to 50-60 years experience for guys like Dalio. when they all say same thing have to take notice.

Cathie Wood said 90% drop. Robert Kiyosaki says it will be 1929 like. Musk and and Dalio said it will be huge.

I have an idea many companies won't survive or never the same

Don’t follow the other guys, but Wood is calling for massive growth. She thinks her fund will return 40% over the next 5 years. Which I find doubtful, she owns some shitty companies.

So not sure where you got a 90% drop which no one with any credibility would call.

Despite the plunge, Cathie Wood sees her plan returning 40% per year | Financial Post

 

[QuebecPride]

Forget Kiyosaki. He's not a finance guy. He knows real estate and is an incredible salesman and sells his courses/services like a champ...but the last thing I would do is listen to his macroeconomic thoughts.
Cathie Wood, although I respect her a lot, we are talking about someones who's main ETF fund dropped 44%.
As for Musk, the dudes one of the greatest CEO's of this generation but he's not an economist.
Which leaves Dalio who I love to listen to. And he's right. The next big down turn, assuming the government can't save it, could be unprecedented. But he plays in decades, not years, not months, not weeks, not days. I listen to him...He's also guessing the US getting upended and taken over (economically) by the Chinese. And, at it's current state, Chinese stocks aren't investable (yes, debatable). At least not the ones we have access too. Sure, if I was a Chinese citizen in mainland China, I have access to some stocks I would love to invest in, but I don't have access to that exchange. And I am not going to put the majority of what little I have into Chinese ADR's. That said, I can also go full, Dalio All Weather portfolio...but the All Weather portfolio is something I would greatly consider if I was in wealth preservation mode which I certainly not.
Look at it this way, of those I would listen to (of those listed here), Dalio and Wood...they are in it for decades. I am also, but I need to accumulate hell more in the short run before I go all defensive and just hope the market doesn't throwup in the mean time. I just can't afford to be all defensive right now.

You`re hinting at this, but, to be more precise. We should not base our decisions on what billionaires do. As long as they don't screw up, guess what, they'll be fine. It's a totally different situation than an individual who has 100K, 200K even 1M$.