Player Discussion Leon Draisaitl '18-19 Season

[StevenF1919]

I know, but you don't seem to have any problems extrapolating small sample sizes when it comes to Drai so...

Either way that was more of an aside to my post and a bit tongue-in-cheek. The main point being that Kopitar did well because of Brown having a good year, not because he was able to "elevate" someone who scored 25 points on the season. That very much kills your narrative and I hope you realize that.



Seems to me you're making excuses for Kopitar and give him a lot more leeway than Draisaitl in this discussion. Either way, Kopitar is a 13 year NHL veteran. I would hope that Drai becomes a better defensive player as he accumulates experience and his game matures.

As of right now the kid is 23 years old and has two 25+ goals and 70+ point seasons behind him and is currently over PPG. Maybe we can chill out a bit with the criticism?

I very clearly used a 170 game sample size to evaluate Draisaitl in my initial analysis. His stats from this season were used to outline my point that he has been atrocious so far this year.

The problem with Draisaitl is that I haven't seen any effort or signs of improvement in his defensive game. He's been bleeding goals against for three years now.

You're all over the map. In the previous post you were leaving everything out, trying to distort that Leon could be on pace for a 25pt season and openly wondering how he's even going to get to 70pts this season and that he would need outlier PP points to do it. These are the things that you post, I'm only responding to the noise.

Take a step back, maybe, and realize how little sense you are making in the discussion.

I was outlining why Draisaitl has been bad this year and why he obviously needs to improve. My initial post shows his pace if he was producing at his career average 5v5 rates without McDavid. The numbers are not impressive.

 

[Duke74]

Lucic had more points than Nino last season, and Zucker was a 25 point player before playing with Staal. Alex Iafallo scored like a 4th liner last season and Kopitar had no problem putting up 92 points with him.

Draisaitl has 3 5v5 points this year and has a 39.11 CF% 41.67 GF%. If your expectation of him is to be a PP specialist who gets murdered at 5v5 like Sam Gagner then I guess he's been fine. If your expectation of him is to be an elite C like he's paid to be, he's been a massive failure.

Two words. Massive failure.

You're either completely blind to anything that detracts from your narrative or you have a personal grudge against the man.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Kane, Staal, and Kopitar.

There's no doubt that his linemates are bad, but he's been just as bad as they are at times. Kopitar had 92 points last season playing with Alex Iafallo, truely elite players elevate the games of their linemates.

It doesn't occur to you that these are elite, seasoned veteran players that have all played on Championship calibre teams and with complete lineups and such things as more than adequate D, good topsix, etc?

Drai just turned 23. Just this weekend.

Lets maybe get back to this when Drai is even in prime, or a veteran, and the Oilers are icing a championship calibre lineup in which to exceed in. Looking at his exemplary skillsets I'm strangely not too worried about him.

Also of note that in last 3 seasons including playoffs Drai has had around 25 more Goals and 26 more pts than Kopitar.

While Anze has every benefit of having elite offensive D on his team.

 

[Duke74]

This is so convoluted. Only 10gp have been played. Any statistics course would advise you against making such forecasts on limited sample. Do you REALLY think Drai could end an NHL season with 25EV posts?

Sometimes I think you post, then think, and just include stuff like this despite how off it is.

Plus, what numbers are you using? Drai has 5EV pts this season. That's on pace for 41 EV pts, not 25.

Plus Drai had 59EV pts last season, 50 the year before.

Yet you cite something like a pace of 25 EV pts knowing full well that assertation is asinine.


This is the difficulty Steven, you are not pursuing this discussion even honest to that which you know. Its picked up on.

He never addressed the error bias I pointed out about his small sample size. Funny how he ignores arguments he can't defend against yet just throws more meaningless stats up. Calling Drai a "massive failure" speaks volumes to his prejudice.

 

[StevenF1919]

You still haven't addressed my earlier reply about the extremely small sample of TEN games on which you are basing these numbers.

Furthermore, the linemates you mention are night and day better than the crap Draisaitl has been stuck with over the past year. Hischier, Saad, Schmaltz, Niederreiter, and Iafallo are miles ahead of Aberg, Cagguila, Cammerleri, and last year's Lucic. We're talking about a difference between 50-60 point players and 20-point players. That's considerable.

Easy minutes? Drai was matched against Patrick Kane the entire Chicago game.

I will redirect you to my initial post, where I used a 170 game sample size: https://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/151417619/

Funny enough, his brutal GF% away from 97 so far this year seems to be a trend in his career.

Saad is a shell of his former self (and has been healthy scratched already this year), Nino is a Reider-level player, and Iafallo is no better than Caggiula.

Favorable zone starts and easier matchups (with the exception of a few games like against the Hawks) than McDavid. It's a lot easier to perform when McDavid is the one playing against the Bergeron's and Doughty's of the league.

Two words. Massive failure.

You're either completely blind to anything that detracts from your narrative or you have a personal grudge against the man.

Read the whole sentence. He has not been an elite C, not even close.

 

[StevenF1919]

It doesn't occur to you that these are elite, seasoned veteran players that have all played on Championship calibre teams and with complete lineups and such things as more than adequate D, good topsix, etc?

Drai just turned 23. Just this weekend.

Lets maybe get back to this when Drai is even in prime, or a veteran, and the Oilers are icing a championship calibre lineup in which to exceed in. Looking at his exemplary skillsets I'm strangely not too worried about him.

Also of note that in last 3 seasons including playoffs Drai has had around 25 more Goals and 26 more pts than Kopitar.

While Anze has every benefit of having elite offensive D on his team.

All of those players were driving their own lines by Draisaitl's age. He's played 3 full seasons already and has yet to show that he can be an effective C. All of his sustained success has been on McDavid's wing. All of it.

He never addressed the error bias I pointed out about his small sample size. Funny how he ignores arguments he can't defend against yet just throws more meaningless stats up. Calling Drai a "massive failure" speaks volumes to his prejudice.

I literally did. Go look at my initial post. His numbers this year do not even stray far from his career average numbers away from Connor.

And way to completely take my statement out of context twice now.

 

[Duke74]

I will redirect you to my initial post, where I used a 170 game sample size: https://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/151417619/

Funny enough, his brutal GF% away from 97 so far this year seems to be a trend in his career.

Saad is a shell of his former self (and has been healthy scratched already this year), Nino is a Reider-level player, and Iafallo is no better than Caggiula.

Favorable zone starts and easier matchups (with the exception of a few games like against the Hawks) than McDavid. It's a lot easier to perform when McDavid is the one playing against the Bergeron's and Doughty's of the league.

Read the whole sentence. He has not been an elite C, not even close.

Steven, I already told you that I'm talking about your specific statement that over a ten-game sample size, he will only get 25 ES points. That's the statement I have an issue with because of the small sample size. You still haven't addressed that part.

Anyway, it seems like you want Draisaitl to be some sort of defensive stalwart. He's still learning that part of his game because he's been playing a lot of wing over the last two to three years. Now, he needs to get used to playing center and hence the defensive responsibilities that come along with that. Maybe with a few more years of experience he can excel at that part of his game.

 

[Drivesaitl]

All of those players were driving their own lines by Draisaitl's age. He's played 3 full seasons already and has yet to show that he can be an effective C. All of his sustained success has been on McDavid's wing. All of it.

.

Taylor Hall says hi. Just because you redundantly say something twice, with the blanket "all of it has been with McD, all of it" doesn't mean its correct, or that you are not willfully misrepresenting.

Why you are doing this I have no idea. Its become silly, presently.

 

[StevenF1919]

Steven, I already told you that I'm talking about your specific statement that over a ten-game sample size, he will only get 25 ES points. That's the statement I have an issue with because of the small sample size. You still haven't addressed that part.

Anyway, it seems like you want Draisaitl to be some sort of defensive stalwart. He's still learning that part of his game because he's been playing a lot of wing over the last two to three years. Now, he needs to get used to playing center and hence the defensive responsibilities that come along with that. Maybe with a few more years of experience he can excel at that part of his game.

I said he needs to improve at 5v5 this year, as he's on pace for 25 points. If he continues to play the way he has, he's going to finish the season with 50-60 points. Yes, the sample size is small, but when judging his play this year, it's kinda hard to get an adequate sample size after 10 games.

He doesn't need to be Bergeron. He just needs to not get outscored.

 

[StevenF1919]

Taylor Hall says hi. Just because you redundantly say something twice, with the blanket "all of it has been with McD, all of it" doesn't mean its correct, or that you are not willfully misrepresenting.

Why you are doing this I have no idea. Its become silly, presently.

I try to forget about him because it makes me sad. You're correct, he also had success when riding shotgun to one of the best wingers in the league.

There's a point to be made about how getting rid of that player has also resulted in losing a ton of potential production with Draisaitl (spreading scoring out over 2 lines rather than 1) but this probably isn't the thread for that.

 

[Zaddy]

I very clearly used a 170 game sample size to evaluate Draisaitl in my initial analysis. His stats from this season were used to outline my point that he has been atrocious so far this year.

The problem with Draisaitl is that I haven't seen any effort or signs of improvement in his defensive game. He's been bleeding goals against for three years now.

Since you're talking about bleeding goals against and you brought up Kane as an example of a player you like better than Draisaitl, maybe you should go and take a look at his numbers from last year.

His most common linemate last year was Nick Schmaltz. Together they had 51.56 GF%. Kane without Schmaltz 37.70 GF% and Schmaltz without Kane 53.57 GF%. Schmaltz also had better CF% away from Kane.

As for Saad, they only played about 354 minutes together and were terrible (36.67 GF%) but Saad posted better numbers away from Kane than vice versa.

Crazy idea, but maybe these stats aren't the be-all-end-all when it comes to judging a hockey player?

 

[Duke74]

Since you're talking about bleeding goals against and you brought up Kane as an example of a player you like better than Draisaitl, maybe you should go and take a look at his numbers from last year.

His most common linemate last year was Nick Schmaltz. Together they had 51.56 GF%. Kane without Schmaltz 37.70 GF% and Schmaltz without Kane 53.57 GF%. Schmaltz also had better CF% away from Kane.

As for Saad, they only played about 354 minutes together and were terrible (36.67 GF%) but Saad posted better numbers away from Kane than vice versa.

Crazy idea, but maybe these stats aren't the be-all-end-all when it comes to judging a hockey player?

Good point. It's more about finding chemistry between players than it is saying since Player X makes so many millions, he should be able to play with Joe Blow from the AHL or Journeyman Jake with a career high of 30 points. Sometimes elite players can't elevate certain linemates because their games just don't mesh together.

 

[oXo Cube]

Since you're talking about bleeding goals against and you brought up Kane as an example of a player you like better than Draisaitl, maybe you should go and take a look at his numbers from last year.

His most common linemate last year was Nick Schmaltz. Together they had 51.56 GF%. Kane without Schmaltz 37.70 GF% and Schmaltz without Kane 53.57 GF%. Schmaltz also had better CF% away from Kane.

As for Saad, they only played about 354 minutes together and were terrible (36.67 GF%) but Saad posted better numbers away from Kane than vice versa.

Crazy idea, but maybe these stats aren't the be-all-end-all when it comes to judging a hockey player?

Nope you aren't allowed to go there either.

Draisaitl is the only player in the league where you're allowed to use his linemates against him. Everyone knows that.

 

[StevenF1919]

Since you're talking about bleeding goals against and you brought up Kane as an example of a player you like better than Draisaitl, maybe you should go and take a look at his numbers from last year.

His most common linemate last year was Nick Schmaltz. Together they had 51.56 GF%. Kane without Schmaltz 37.70 GF% and Schmaltz without Kane 53.57 GF%. Schmaltz also had better CF% away from Kane.

As for Saad, they only played about 354 minutes together and were terrible (36.67 GF%) but Saad posted better numbers away from Kane than vice versa.

Crazy idea, but maybe these stats aren't the be-all-end-all when it comes to judging a hockey player?

An 87.33 on ice Sv% would have something to do with that. Kane's CF% was positive and his HDCF% was just barely below 50. Draisaitl had a negative CF% and HDCF% away from McDavid and a reasonable on ice Sv%.

 

[joestevens29]

An 87.33 on ice Sv% would have something to do with that. Kane's CF% was positive and his HDCF% was just barely below 50. Draisaitl had a negative CF% and HDCF% away from McDavid and a reasonable on ice Sv%.

And you don't think what the players themselves are doing out there has anything to do with this number?

 

[oXo Cube]

An 87.33 on ice Sv% would have something to do with that. Kane's CF% was positive and his HDCF% was just barely below 50. Draisaitl had a negative CF% and HDCF% away from McDavid and a reasonable on ice Sv%.

Draisaitl had a positive corsi and an 88onSV last year and yet you still think he was terrible.

But like I said we went over that last week and you ignored it then too so I don't see why you're gonna stop now.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Nope you aren't allowed to go there either.

Draisaitl is the only player in the league where you're allowed to use his linemates against him. Everyone knows that.

Pay attention to the narratives as well. When Steven mentions Saad its "playing with the ghost of Brandon Saad" But when its Drai playing with Lucic its Lucic being better than several other wingers that other Centers get to play with.

When feigned narrative is used, and we all succumb, its evident.

But when I do it I like to think I bang my head against a logic wall for awhile, and then say something like, Yeah, you got me.

Discussion with others, I think, is a method in which to expand our recognition and explore new perspectives and expand thought in reflection of others. Not to be too boa constricted with our own.

I could do that fine talking to my self and prevaricating

 

[StevenF1919]

Draisaitl had a positive corsi and an 88onSV last year and yet you still think he was terrible.

But like I said we went over that last week and you ignored it then too so I don't see why you're gonna stop now.

From 2016-2017 to today (the data I've been using the whole time), Leon has a .901 on ice Sv%, a 48.40 CF%, and a 44.87 HDCF%. I don't think that on ice Sv% is unreasonably low given the amount of high danger chances allowed.

Pay attention to the narratives as well. When Steven mentions Saad its "playing with the ghost of Brandon Saad" But when its Drai playing with Lucic its Lucic being better than several other wingers that other Centers get to play with.

When feigned narrative is used, and we all succumb, its evident.

But when I do it I like to think I bang my head against a logic wall for awhile, and then say something like, Yeah, you got me.

Discussion with others, I think, is a method in which to expand our recognition and explore new perspectives and expand thought in reflection of others. Not to be too boa constricted with our own.

I could do that fine talking to my self and prevaricating

I've been pretty adamant about how dogshit Lucic is, I even got roasted in the GDT for it. I posted Draisaitl's numbers away from 97 and 27 and they're bad. What more do you want?

 

[oXo Cube]

Who cares about 2016-17? That's forever ago on the development curve of a player Leon's age.

You're just going that far to make sure you can keep spinning the narrative in the direction you want it to go.

 

[StevenF1919]

Who cares about 2016-17? That's forever ago on the development curve of a player Leon's age.

You're just going that far to make sure you can keep spinning the narrative in the direction you want it to go.

But you would have no problem citing the 77 points he had from that season?

 

[Spawn]

Our PP% and PK% are reverse images of each other. If we aren't winning at 5v5, we likely aren't winning the game. And take McDavid off that powerplay and see how many points Draisaitl has. He's got 1 point all season when McDavid isn't on the ice with him.

Poster states draisaitl gets outscores 3:2 when on ice. When in reality draisaitl outscores the opposition 3:2 when on the ice.

“Yeah but PP doesn’t count waaa”

“Points with McDavid don’t count count waaa”

What narrative? It's a fact that he's on pace for 25 5v5 points. To hit that 70 point mark that people keep setting for him, he'd need to put up 45 points on the PP. Last season the league high was 41 PP points. The year before it was 35. What are the chances he beats those numbers?

The chances are better he beats those numbers than he only scores 25 points at 5v5 this year.

Seems like on pace only applies when it fits your narrative.

 

[oXo Cube]

But you would have no problem citing the 77 points he had from that season?

Did I do that?

Simple question dude. Was Draisaitl good last season or not?

 

[Joey Moss]

But you would have no problem citing the 77 points he had from that season?

Who the f*** cares.

If you watch him play you know he's an elite player with or without McDavid. He's been a beast at the World Cup, World Championships, Junior, etc..

People were saying the same crap about how Hall carried Draisaitl to a 50 point season.

I don't know how you could possibly complain about his points with McDavid.

 

[Spawn]

Now tell me how many games a year you expect to score 4 on the PP?

The example is obviously extreme to prove a point. The reality still stands though that in the 20 odd minutes draisaitl is playing a game right now the oilers are coming out ahead. Whether he has a -2 5v5 goal differential through all of 10 games or not.

 

[Spawn]

And for half of his games this year he's been the worst player on his line. What does that say about Drai?

Maybe says more about your ability to judge hockey than it does anything about draisaitl.