Player Discussion Leon Draisaitl '18-19 Season

[Zaddy]

An 87.33 on ice Sv% would have something to do with that. Kane's CF% was positive and his HDCF% was just barely below 50. Draisaitl had a negative CF% and HDCF% away from McDavid and a reasonable on ice Sv%.

So upon closer inspection, these are Drai's numbers since 17-18:

Drai w/ Caggiula: 49.26 CF%, 43.75 GF%, 92.44 On-Ice SV%
Drai w/o Caggiula: 51,34 CF%, 49.14 GF%, 89.19 On-Ice SV%
Caggiula w/o Drai: 46.69 CF%, 38.89 GF%, 90.60 On-Ice SV%

Conclusion: Drai and Caggiula are terrible together, but Drai does a lot better away from Caggiula than vice versa (and using your logic Drai's negative GF% can be explained by the poor on-ice sv%)

Drai w/ Lucic: 49.92 CF%, 35.14 GF%, 86.44 On-Ice SV%
Drai w/o Lucic: 51.37 CF%, 53.68 GF%, 90.98 On-Ice SV%
Lucic w/o Drai: 51.13 CF%, 53.13 GF%, 93.74 On-Ice SV%

Conclusion: Drai and Lucic are not good together but are also not helped by poor on-ice sv%. Drai does slightly better away from Lucic than vice versa while getting worse goaltending.

Drai w/ Cammalleri: 44.48 CF%, 50 GF%, 90.53 On-Ice SV%
Drai w/o Cammalleri: 52.07 CF%, 48.25 GF%, 89.65 On-Ice SV%
Cammalleri w/o Drai: 49.29 CF%, 41.94 GF%, 91.96 On-Ice SV%

Conclusion: Drai and Cammy had very poor shot metrics together but GF stayed even despite only having league-average goaltending (if I'm reading these numbers right). Smallish sample size though. Anyway, Drai was clearly a lot better away from Cammy than vice versa, Cammalleri's numbers away from Drai are actually appalling, especially with that on-ice sv%. That should tell you something.

I could go on...numbers with Pulju and Khaira are pretty similar.

Can't you see the pattern here? It seems quite obvious to me that Drai has been dragged down by a number of poor linemates over the last year and really hasn't been given much to work with. What high-end player outside of Crosby and perhaps a few others would shine while playing with guys like Caggiula, Lucic, Cammalleri and others of that ilk?

The problem isn't that Drai can't play without McDavid. The problem is the Oilers have no other forwards except for McDavid, RNH and Drai that are legit players.

By the way, McDavid has a 39.76 CF%, 43.48 GF% and 42.86 HDCF% with Caggiula. How's that for elevation?

EDIT: Looking at Drai's numbers with RNH. Turns out they're pretty decent. 53.21 CF%, 50 GF%, 51.52 HDCF% while having a 87.18 On-Ice SV% and 0.960 PDO. Not a huge sample size but not an insignificant one either. Just having a guy like RNH on his line full-time would make a huge difference. Any honest poster should be able to see that.

 

[AM]

He's actually been something like plus-3 or plus-4 during the last 4 games. Not sure why you and Steven picked this time to bash him when he's clearly doing much better.

We didnt pick this time to bash him. Fortunately, he has been better in the last few games.

However for the first 5 games or so, and most of last year, he was somewhat of a pouty boat anchor.

 

[Duke74]

Poster states draisaitl gets outscores 3:2 when on ice. When in reality draisaitl outscores the opposition 3:2 when on the ice.

“Yeah but PP doesn’t count waaa”

“Points with McDavid don’t count count waaa”



The chances are better he beats those numbers than he only scores 25 points at 5v5 this year.

Seems like on pace only applies when it fits your narrative.

Not to mention he's on pace for about 50 goals. But that's probably about as sustainable as his 25 ES points and getting outscored 3:2.

 

[StevenF1919]

Poster states draisaitl gets outscores 3:2 when on ice. When in reality draisaitl outscores the opposition 3:2 when on the ice.

“Yeah but PP doesn’t count waaa”

“Points with McDavid don’t count count waaa”



The chances are better he beats those numbers than he only scores 25 points at 5v5 this year.

Seems like on pace only applies when it fits your narrative.

Do you realize how ridiculous adding in PP points to a stat like that is? Should we start adding PK goals against to the penalty killers GF/GA? I will bet money on Drai not putting up more than 45 PP points this year. I'd also bet that he puts up more 5v5 points than he's currently on pace for. I'd be extremely surprised if he continued to play this poorly at even strength. That doesn't change the fact that he's been garbage 5v5 and needs to step it up.

Did I do that?

Simple question dude. Was Draisaitl good last season or not?

Yeah, he was. Draisaitl is an excellent winger when he plays with someone else who can drive them line. There's no question about that.

That doesn't change the fact that he can't drive his own line at C.

Who the **** cares.

If you watch him play you know he's an elite player with or without McDavid. He's been a beast at the World Cup, World Championships, Junior, etc..

People were saying the same crap about how Hall carried Draisaitl to a 50 point season.

I don't know how you could possibly complain about his points with McDavid.

Because when he's paid like a #1 C, I expect him to perform like one. And maybe he doesn't put up 70+ points, that's fine. But to get murdered in goal differential like he currently does is not acceptable.

So upon closer inspection, these are Drai's numbers since 17-18:

Drai w/ Caggiula: 49.26 CF%, 43.75 GF%, 92.44 On-Ice SV%
Drai w/o Caggiula: 51,34 CF%, 49.14 GF%, 89.19 On-Ice SV%
Caggiula w/o Drai: 46.69 CF%, 38.89 GF%, 90.60 On-Ice SV%

Conclusion: Drai and Caggiula are terrible together, but Drai does a lot better away from Caggiula than vice versa (and using your logic Drai's negative GF% can be explained by the poor on-ice sv%)

Drai w/ Lucic: 49.92 CF%, 35.14 GF%, 86.44 On-Ice SV%
Drai w/o Lucic: 51.37 CF%, 53.68 GF%, 90.98 On-Ice SV%
Lucic w/o Drai: 51.13 CF%, 53.13 GF%, 93.74 On-Ice SV%

Conclusion: Drai and Lucic are not good together but are also not helped by poor on-ice sv%. Drai does slightly better away from Lucic than vice versa while getting worse goaltending.

Drai w/ Cammalleri: 44.48 CF%, 50 GF%, 90.53 On-Ice SV%
Drai w/o Cammalleri: 52.07 CF%, 48.25 GF%, 89.65 On-Ice SV%
Cammalleri w/o Drai: 49.29 CF%, 41.94 GF%, 91.96 On-Ice SV%

Conclusion: Drai and Cammy had very poor shot metrics together but GF stayed even despite only having league-average goaltending (if I'm reading these numbers right). Smallish sample size though. Anyway, Drai was clearly a lot better away from Cammy than vice versa, Cammalleri's numbers away from Drai are actually appalling, especially with that on-ice sv%. That should tell you something.

I could go on...numbers with Pulju and Khaira are pretty similar.

Can't you see the pattern here? It seems quite obvious to me that Drai has been dragged down by a number of poor linemates over the last year and really hasn't been given much to work with. What high-end player outside of Crosby and perhaps a few others would shine while playing with guys like Caggiula, Lucic, Cammalleri and others of that ilk?

The problem isn't that Drai can't play without McDavid. The problem is the Oilers have no other forwards except for McDavid, RNH and Drai that are legit players.

By the way, McDavid has a 39.76 CF%, 43.48 GF% and 42.86 HDCF% with Caggiula. How's that for elevation?

EDIT: Looking at Drai's numbers with RNH. Turns out they're pretty decent. 53.21 CF%, 50 GF%, 51.52 HDCF% while having a 87.18 On-Ice SV% and 0.960 PDO. Not a huge sample size but not an insignificant one either. Just having a guy like RNH on his line full-time would make a huge difference. Any honest poster should be able to see that.

You realize that those w/o numbers are hugely affected by his time with McDavid correct? Just in Caggiula's example, without Connor and Caggiula his CF is 49.27% and his GF is 43.68%.

This team needs to figure out if Draisaitl is a winger or a C. And if he's not good enough to play with the linemates he's been given (and it doesn't look like he is), it might be best to just stick him with Connor and let RNH anchor that 2nd line. Otherwise, Draisaitl is going to have to start producing with someone. Sure, they aren't setting him up for success and nobody on this board has been more critical of the team's approach to acquiring wingers than I have, but that doesn't absolve Draisaitl of his poor play and results.

 

[Spawn]

Do you realize how ridiculous adding in PP points to a stat like that is? Should we start adding PK goals against to the penalty killers GF/GA? I will bet money on Drai not putting up more than 45 PP points this year. I'd also bet that he puts up more 5v5 points than he's currently on pace for. I'd be extremely surprised if he continued to play this poorly at even strength. That doesn't change the fact that he's been garbage 5v5 and needs to step it up.

Yeah, he was. Draisaitl is an excellent winger when he plays with someone else who can drive them line. There's no question about that.

That doesn't change the fact that he can't drive his own line at C.

Because when he's paid like a #1 C, I expect him to perform like one. And maybe he doesn't put up 70+ points, that's fine. But to get murdered in goal differential like he currently does is not acceptable.

You realize that those w/o numbers are hugely affected by his time with McDavid correct? Just in Caggiula's example, without Connor and Caggiula his CF is 49.27% and his GF is 43.68%.

This team needs to figure out if Draisaitl is a winger or a C. And if he's not good enough to play with the linemates he's been given (and it doesn't look like he is), it might be best to just stick him with Connor and let RNH anchor that 2nd line. Otherwise, Draisaitl is going to have to start producing with someone. Sure, they aren't setting him up for success and nobody on this board has been more critical of the team's approach to acquiring wingers than I have, but that doesn't absolve Draisaitl of his poor play and results.

There is no “poor play and results”

He’s been the 2nd best skater on team for 3 years running.

Whole bunch of ignoring stats that don’t support your ludicrous stance and desperate reliance on a glorified +/- stat.

This type of dishonest discourse is so low.

 

[StevenF1919]

There is no “poor play and results”

He’s been the 2nd best skater on team for 3 years running.

Whole bunch of ignoring stats that don’t support your ludicrous stance and desperate reliance on a glorified +/- stat.

This type of dishonest discourse is so low.

Yeah, I guess it's just fine and dandy that he gets massively outscored when not playing with McDavid and that his point production plummets.

 

[Spawn]

Yeah, I guess it's just fine and dandy that he gets massively outscored when not playing with McDavid and that his point production plummets.

Your points have all been addressed numerous times by multiple posters.

You have no interest in honest discussion.

 

[StevenF1919]

Your points have all been addressed numerous times by multiple posters.

You have no interest in honest discussion.

He has bad stats with literally every other forward except for RNH, where the sample size is extremely small. The post at the top of this page neglected to remove McDavid from the w/o stats, which nullifies the comparison completely.

Funny how you accuse me of not being interested in honest discussion when you're trying to add powerplay points to Draisaitls GF%.

 

[Zaddy]

You realize that those w/o numbers are hugely affected by his time with McDavid correct? Just in Caggiula's example, without Connor and Caggiula his CF is 49.27% and his GF is 43.68%.

Yes, I realize that. But I also showed you his numbers with RNH which are perfectly fine or actually pretty good considering their On-Ice SV% and PDO.

Outside of RNH and McDavid, any player he has played with has been borderline NHLers like Caggiula and Cammalleri or a Lucic who scored 1 goal in the last 42(?) games of last season and this season is on pace for a whooping 8 goals.

This is why every comparison with Drai away from McDavid is disingenuous. He just haven't had anything to work with in terms of actual NHL talent so you can't really make anything out of those numbers.

With that being said, of course he needs to work on his defensive game, but, as I said in an earlier post, the kid just turned 23 years old and already has two 25+ goal and 70+ point seasons on his resume. Maybe that is not worth anything to you, but to me (and I'd argue most people on this board) it is.

 

[Zaddy]

He has bad stats with literally every other forward except for RNH, where the sample size is extremely small. The post at the top of this page neglected to remove McDavid from the w/o stats, which nullifies the comparison completely.

Funny how you accuse me of not being interested in honest discussion when you're trying to add powerplay points to Draisaitls GF%.

This is exactly it. He has good numbers with RNH too. Why is that? Could it be because RNH is a legit top6 NHLer in contrast to pretty much every other player Draisaitl has been saddled with over the past year?

I also disagree that the sample size is *extremely* small. It's small, but not insignificant.

 

[StevenF1919]

Yes, I realize that. But I also showed you his numbers with RNH which are perfectly fine or actually pretty good considering their On-Ice SV% and PDO.

Outside of RNH and McDavid, any player he has played with has been borderline NHLers like Caggiula and Cammalleri or a Lucic who scored 1 goal in the last 42(?) games of last season and this season is on pace for a whooping 8 goals.

This is why every comparison with Drai away from McDavid is disingenuous. He just haven't had anything to work with in terms of actual NHL talent so you can't really make anything out of those numbers.

With that being said, of course he needs to work on his defensive game, but, as I said in an earlier post, the kid just turned 23 years old and already has two 25+ goal and 70+ point seasons on his resume. Maybe that is not worth anything to you, but to me (and I'd argue most people on this board) it is.

68 minutes without McDavid and with RNH is hardly enough to draw conclusions but there's no doubt that his numbers would improve. Nuge has always been a very solid possession player so it would be surprising if Drai's numbers didn't improve with him.

RNH's numbers away from McDavid aren't anything to write home about but they're better than Draisaitl's. He's had the same garbage to work with as Leon has and usually gets tougher matchups. No one makes any excuses for him. Honestly, it might be best to just pair the two together and let McDavid haul around whatever shitty AHL flavor of the week wingers that TMac decides to dress. At least then we'd have some semblance of a second line and RNH should be able to cover for Draisaitl's defensive ineptitude.

 

[StevenF1919]

This is exactly it. He has good numbers with RNH too. Why is that? Could it be because RNH is a legit top6 NHLer in contrast to pretty much every other player Draisaitl has been saddled with over the past year?

I also disagree that the sample size is *extremely* small. It's small, but not insignificant.

Taylor Hall played more minutes with McDavid than Drai has played with RNH (sans 97). That sample size isn't adequate imo.

 

[Zaddy]

68 minutes without McDavid and with RNH is hardly enough to draw conclusions but there's no doubt that his numbers would improve. Nuge has always been a very solid possession player so it would be surprising if Drai's numbers didn't improve with him.

RNH's numbers away from McDavid aren't anything to write home about but they're better than Draisaitl's. He's had the same garbage to work with as Leon has and usually gets tougher matchups. No one makes any excuses for him. Honestly, it might be best to just pair the two together and let McDavid haul around whatever ****ty AHL flavor of the week wingers that TMac decides to dress. At least then we'd have some semblance of a second line and RNH should be able to cover for Draisaitl's defensive ineptitude.

RNH has been in the league for 8 years now so yeah I'd expect him to be better defensively than Leon.

Anyway, Nuge has never produced at the level he is doing now with McDavid. Maybe you should go criticize him and how he leeches of McDavid too.

 

[Spawn]

Curious if someone wants to continue digging that hole

 

[AM]

You guys are sure fixated on points.

 

[McDeepika]

This is just getting ridiculous now. From what I have gathered, we have deduced that Draisatil can't drive his own line by taking away his minutes with McDavid and comparing him to other players who get to keep their minutes with their best players.

What forward could drive his own line playing with a combination of Lucic/Reider/Slepyshev/Cammaleri/Puljjuarvi/Kharia with no offensive support from the D?

 

[oXo Cube]

This is just getting ridiculous now. From what I have gathered, we have deduced that Draisatil can't drive his own line by taking away his minutes with McDavid and comparing him to other players who get to keep their minutes with their best players.

What forward could drive his own line playing with a combination of Lucic/Reider/Slepyshev/Cammaleri/Puljjuarvi/Kharia with no offensive support from the D?

In fairness it's only one poster(though he's very noisy) trying to push this narrative. It's derailed this thread for pages though.

 

[Drivesaitl]

This is just getting ridiculous now. From what I have gathered, we have deduced that Draisatil can't drive his own line by taking away his minutes with McDavid and comparing him to other players who get to keep their minutes with their best players.

What forward could drive his own line playing with a combination of Lucic/Reider/Slepyshev/Cammaleri/Puljjuarvi/Kharia with no offensive support from the D?

Tell it.

Around one year at this time I was defending a concussed Draisaitl from fervent attacks about not being able to produce offense with players like strome and khaira specifically. Who I specifically stated are simply not good offensive players that do not belong on an NHL topsix that is expected to produce.

There was even ample suggestion, lol, that Draisaitl was holding back strome and Khaira.

A year later Khaira has zero goals, does not even resemble an NHL player, and Strome has zero goals. But Draisaitl was supposed to turn both into 20 goal scorers or reap scorn. Anybody can go back last season and see that stuff.

It happened again this season when Drai was supposed to move mountains playing with a cooler like Yamamoto that not even McD can get going.

 

[Duke74]

You guys are sure fixated on points.

Points win or lose games. Not fancy stats and all of the hypothetical scenarios they conjure.

But since some posters like to place an emphasis on plus-minus, Draisaitl is a plus 6 in his last several games. So not only is he getting points but he's also been on the positive side of the +/-.

 

[Spawn]

You guys are sure fixated on points.

If anyone is fixated, its those who’ve argued everyway they can that contributions with certain players or in certain situations just flat out don’t count when evaluating a player.

And a day later and draisaitl puts up 2 5v5 points, neither of which McDavid got on a point on. And he is now even at 5v5. Hard to believe considering the argument prior was he was on pace to be outscored 3:2 at 5v5 this year.

And low and behold a certain poster is MIA.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Points win or lose games. Not fancy stats and all of the hypothetical scenarios they conjure.

But since some posters like to place an emphasis on plus-minus, Draisaitl is a plus 6 in his last several games. So not only is he getting points but he's also been on the positive side of the +/-.

Rieder helps with this as well but Drai backchecking focus has been better. Thing is having the puck support of Rieder, and his skating acumen, is helpful to Drai in all zones. Thus better results of all kinds. What Rieder is doing is the definition of support and why Drai is presently helped.

Drai has really made several good defensive plays in recent games. Even stuff that is hilited and talked aobut in the broadcasts. But not in this thread or GDT because it creates cognitive dissonance in those that refuse to consider he can play all zones responsibly.

 

[Little Fury]

If anyone is fixated, its those who’ve argued everyway they can that contributions with certain players or in certain situations just flat out don’t count when evaluating a player.
.

They count, but it's context you need to consider. I expect you know this and wouldn't be nearly so disingenuous if we were talking about a player you didn't like as much.

And a day later and draisaitl puts up 2 5v5 points, neither of which McDavid got on a point on. And he is now even at 5v5. Hard to believe considering the argument prior was he was on pace to be outscored 3:2 at 5v5 this year.

And low and behold a certain poster is MIA

I'm not sure the guy who was saying "Leon can be and needs to be better at 5v5" looks worse here than the people who were whining that Leon couldn't possibly be expected to produce with the garbage he plays with do.

(Also pretty disingenuous to suggest that Dra's first goal yesterday was free of the McDavid effect when it cam seconds after a PP ended on a play McDavid started.)

 

[Spawn]

They count, but it's context you need to consider. I expect you know this and wouldn't be nearly so disingenuous if we were talking about a player you didn't like as much.

There is a difference between context like a good player tends to produce better with other good players and just ignoring a players contributions when he plays with another good player. A stipulation that only applies to draisaitl for some.

Idiots in this thread saying draisaitl is leaching off McDavid are the ones who lack context.

 

[Little Fury]

There is a difference between context like a good player tends to produce better with other good players and just ignoring a players contributions when he plays with another good player. A stipulation that only applies to draisaitl for some.

Idiots in this thread saying draisaitl is leaching off McDavid are the ones who lack context.

Drai produces at a much better rate with McDavid. McDavid produces better without Draisaitl.

"Leeching" is an editorial choice I don't agree with, but facts are facts.

 

[Zaddy]

They count, but it's context you need to consider. I expect you know this and wouldn't be nearly so disingenuous if we were talking about a player you didn't like as much.



I'm not sure the guy who was saying "Leon can be and needs to be better at 5v5" looks worse here than the people who were whining that Leon couldn't possibly be expected to produce with the garbage he plays with do.

(Also pretty disingenuous to suggest that Dra's first goal yesterday was free of the McDavid effect when it cam seconds after a PP ended on a play McDavid started.)

You mean kinda how it is disingenuous to write off any point Drai scores that McDavid is in on, even if the latter's contribution to said point was negligible? Oddly I haven't seen you bring that up. Only when it fits the argument eh?