Player Discussion Leon Draisaitl '18-19 Season

[CupofOil]

If you're the one blaming his numbers on Lucic then I'm disproved that already. His numbers are still mediocre even without 27 dragging him down.

Because he's playing with 3rd liners, what don't you understand about that? That's all he's played with since being moved back to centers, 3rd liners, 4th liners, tweeners, a very old guy and rookies.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Because he's playing with 3rd liners, what don't you understand about that? That's all he's played with since being moved back to centers, 3rd liners, 4th liners, tweeners, a very old guy and rookies.

And that's the reason he makes mistakes himself? If Draisaitl was passing the eye test in those games but nothing was happening and fancy stats sucked cause of his linemates than sure. But he was making the mistakes himself.

 

[StevenF1919]

Because he's playing with 3rd liners, what don't you understand about that? That's all he's played with since being moved back to centers, 3rd liners, 4th liners, tweeners, a very old guy and rookies.

And for half of his games this year he's been the worst player on his line. What does that say about Drai?

 

[CupofOil]

And for half of his games this year he's been the worst player on his line. What does that say about Drai?

Skilled players play better with skill, skilled players produce better with skill.
As I mentioned before, all the skilled centers/wingers in his age range play with at least one highly skilled player on their line (McDavid included), Drai hasn't had that luxury yet.

I never said that Drai wasn't struggling in some aspects especially earlier in the season. I'm saying that the lack of production is largely because he doesn't have much skill flanking him.

 

[nabob]

Disagree about Drai...although you have a point about what looked like the entire team hitting a switch at that time.

Drai has been 'slowly improving every game since the season start. Anyone without bias should be able to see it. Nothing's changed but steady improvement back to where he is every year....and he's still going.

There was no magical moment for him..just Drai's normally slow start and continuous improvement.

He was a 100% better player in the last two periods against the Pens and since then than he was the game before. I don’t know where all this “Drai is a slow starter” stuff came from. Seems like a convenient excuse for his poor play tonstart this season.

Drai destroyed the rookie tournament after his draft and was probably our best forward in his first 2/3 training camps. He struggled his entire 1st half season in the NHL, then sulked in the AHL and lit it up with Hall as soon as he was called up in his 2nd year. His 3rd year he was good right from the start and the same thing last year until he got that concussion from the Trouba hit.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Skilled players play better with skill, skilled players produce better with skill.
As I mentioned before, all the skilled centers/wingers in his age range play with at least one highly skilled player on their line (McDavid included), Drai hasn't had that luxury yet.

I never said that Drai wasn't struggling in some aspects especially earlier in the season. I'm saying that the lack of production is largely because he doesn't have much skill flanking him.

His best games have been on a line with Rieder and Chiasson

 

[nabob]

Skilled players play better with skill, skilled players produce better with skill.
As I mentioned before, all the skilled centers/wingers in his age range play with at least one highly skilled player on their line (McDavid included), Drai hasn't had that luxury yet.

I never said that Drai wasn't struggling in some aspects especially earlier in the season. I'm saying that the lack of production is largely because he doesn't have much skill flanking him.

There hasn’t been a lack of production, but there was an obvious lack of effort. He was backchecking at an Eberle level to start the season and coughing up turnovers like Gagner, can’t blame that on other players.

 

[CupofOil]

His best games have been on a line with Rieder and Chiasson

Those are the best (most skilled) linemates he's had since being moved to center. What does that say about the quality of linemates he's had over the past 2 seasons?
Exactly my point. Give him even a tiny bit of skill and the line can produce.

 

[onetweasy]

Reider has been his most common linemate this season, by a huge margin.

That's what happens in small sample sizes. The funny thing is, it matches exactly with his GF% from 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 where he had 1230 minutes and a 43.22 GF%. He's also historically been a negative corsi player away from McDavid.

6 goals in 10 games is a 50 goal pace....as a 2nd line center. Find something else to bitch about. Jesus.

 

[StevenF1919]

Skilled players play better with skill, skilled players produce better with skill.
As I mentioned before, all the skilled centers/wingers in his age range play with at least one highly skilled player on their line (McDavid included), Drai hasn't had that luxury yet.

I never said that Drai wasn't struggling in some aspects especially earlier in the season. I'm saying that the lack of production is largely because he doesn't have much skill flanking him.

Earlier in the thread I listed several players who put up great numbers with mediocre linemates. At the very least, Draisaitl shouldn't be bleeding goals. If he only puts up 60 points but has a positive CF and GF, I'm fine with that.

I think Pulju will eventually be a good fit on his line. The problem is, Draisaitl doesn't have the defensive abilities to shelter Pulju when he inevitably makes mistakes.

 

[CupofOil]

There hasn’t been a lack of production, but there was an obvious lack of effort. He was backchecking at an Eberle level to start the season and coughing up turnovers like Gagner, can’t blame that on other players.

Steven was referencing his lack of production away from McDavid and he was basically saying that Drai can only produce when he's "leeching" off of McDavid. My point is that the production is there largely due to lack of quality on his wing.

I also said that he needs/needed to be better but he, like just about every center in the league, needs some quality on wing in order to produce at a high level.

 

[CupofOil]

Earlier in the thread I listed several players who put up great numbers with mediocre linemates. At the very least, Draisaitl shouldn't be bleeding goals. If he only puts up 60 points but has a positive CF and GF, I'm fine with that.

I think Pulju will eventually be a good fit on his line. The problem is, Draisaitl doesn't have the defensive abilities to shelter Pulju when he inevitably makes mistakes.

Who?

 

[nabob]

Steven was referencing his lack of production away from McDavid and he was basically saying that Drai can only produce when he's "leeching" off of McDavid. My point is that the production is there largely due to lack of quality on his wing.

I also said that he needs/needed to be better but he, like just about every center in the league, needs some quality on wing in order to produce at a high level.

All he needed to do was up his compete and effort level. Him being the worst player on his line for a number of games early in the season cannot be blamed on his teammates. He’s been excellent in the last 4/5 games, still playing without star linemates.

 

[Zaddy]

Reider has been his most common linemate this season, by a huge margin.

And Rieder's career-high in the NHL is 37 points (and who scored a whooping 25 points over 78 games last year), yet we consider him to be the best linemate he has had so far this season. What does that tell you about the players TMac/Chia has surrounded Draisaitl with this season, or 17/18 for that matter?

 

[StevenF1919]

Who?

Kane, Staal, and Kopitar.

And Rieder's career-high in the NHL is 37 points (and who scored a whooping 12 goals and 25 points over 78 games last year), yet we consider him to be the best linemate he has had so far this season. What does that tell you about the players TMac/Chia has surrounded Draisaitl with this season, or 17/18 for that matter?

There's no doubt that his linemates are bad, but he's been just as bad as they are at times. Kopitar had 92 points last season playing with Alex Iafallo, truely elite players elevate the games of their linemates.

 

[CupofOil]

Kane, Staal, and Kopitar.

There's no doubt that his linemates are bad, but he's been just as bad as they are at times. Kopitar had 92 points last season playing with Alex Iafallo, truely elite players elevate the games of their linemates.

Kane has always had one skilled linemate. Didn't Staal play with Zucker? Who is Zucker's equal on Drai's line?
Kopitar yes but again, all these guys are well established centers in the league while Drai is just beginning his role as line driver. Compare him to guys like MacKinnon, Schiefele, Barkov, Monahan and Pastrnak. Those are his peers and all have highly skilled linemates.

With that said, Drai needs to continue to push the pace like he's been doing recently. He's much better when he moves his feet but he also needs players that he can play off of. Rieder has been the best at that since Drai moved back to center which is sad considering that Rieder is best suited as a 3rd liner or a 3rd cog on a functional 2nd line.

 

[Zaddy]

There's no doubt that his linemates are bad, but he's been just as bad as they are at times. Kopitar had 92 points last season playing with Alex Iafallo, truely elite players elevate the games of their linemates.

I don't ever watch the Kings but Iafallo had 25 points last year. Seems to me Kopitar didn't elevate him that much if he couldn't even help him break 30 points or double digits in goals.

I'd be much more inclined in believing that Dustin Brown had a renaissance year and was a large reason behind Kopitar going from 52 to 92 points. Brown was his most common linemate and together they had a GF% of 63.75.

Actually just looking at the numbers, Kopitar away from Brown last year had a GF% of 33.33 while Brown without Kopi was 58.33%. That's not very nice-looking is it?

As many have mentioned in this discussion, if Drai would only get ONE legit top6 player to play with, you'd see results. Brown was that legit player for Kopitar last year.

Btw while on the subject, in 16/17 Kopitar scored 12 goals and 52 points. Not very elite of him eh? Wonder what you'd say if it was Draisaitl doing that.

Also, Kopitar has 4 points in 10 games this year, actually being outscored by Alex Iafallo who has 7 points in 11 games. Maybe Iafallo is carrying Kopitar?

Or maaaaaaybe it is more likely that he just hasn't meshed that well with Kovalchuk and Iafallo who he has been playing every game with this season while Brown was out of the lineup? But I guess that would kill your narrative against the fact that linemates and chemistry matter.

 

[Drivesaitl]

What narrative? It's a fact that he's on pace for 25 5v5 points. To hit that 70 point mark that people keep setting for him, he'd need to put up 45 points on the PP. Last season the league high was 41 PP points. The year before it was 35. What are the chances he beats those numbers?

.

This is so convoluted. Only 10gp have been played. Any statistics course would advise you against making such forecasts on limited sample. Do you REALLY think Drai could end an NHL season with 25EV posts?

Sometimes I think you post, then think, and just include stuff like this despite how off it is.

Plus, what numbers are you using? Drai has 5EV pts this season. That's on pace for 41 EV pts, not 25.

Plus Drai had 59EV pts last season, 50 the year before.

Yet you cite something like a pace of 25 EV pts knowing full well that assertation is asinine.


This is the difficulty Steven, you are not pursuing this discussion even honest to that which you know. Its picked up on.

 

[AM]

With a skilled player on his line, they would have the puck more which would lead to less time in the D zone and more offensive chances. He's had to carry a bunch of schlubs the last season plus, this is undeniable.

As I said, there are some holes in his game like cheating for offense too much at times and a little careless with his passing but I can't think of any high end center that has as little to work with as he does, specifically his peers as I mentioned in my previous post who have had a combination of Rantanen, Landeskog, Gaudreau, Bergeron, Marchand, Huberdeau, Wheeler, Laine etc, to play off of compared to Lucic (mostly the bad version last season), Cammalleri, Aberg, Caggiula, Rieder, a rookie in Yamamoto and Chiasson.

Pretty much I agree.

And I love the idea of being so good at offence that you make the other team play defense all of the time.

But the reality is that Drai rests on D and exerts on O. He has to find a better balance to take the next step.

 

[StevenF1919]

Kane has always had one skilled linemate. Didn't Staal play with Zucker? Who is Zucker's equal on Drai's line?
Kopitar yes but again, all these guys are well established centers in the league while Drai is just beginning his role as line driver. Compare him to guys like MacKinnon, Schiefele, Barkov, Monahan and Pastrnak. Those are his peers and all have highly skilled linemates.

With that said, Drai needs to continue to push the pace like he's been doing recently. He's much better when he moves his feet but he also needs players that he can play off of. Rieder has been the best at that since Drai moved back to center which is sad considering that Rieder is best suited as a 3rd liner or a 3rd cog on a functional 2nd line.

Kane played with Nick Schmaltz and the ghost of Brandon Saad and Zucker was a 25 point player before being put with Staal.

This will be Draisaitl's 4th season. Most elite players will have established themselves as line drivers by now. He hasn't. Of the players you listed, the only one that Draisaitl is arguably better than is Monahan. Unfortunately for us, Drai is higher paid than all of those guys.

He's definitely looked better by my eye the last couple games. He's still getting massively outshot but obviously it's a small sample size and that could change. Agreed on Reider being better suited to the third line, but unless Pulju steps it up I think you need to leave him on Draisaitl's wing.

I don't ever watch the Kings but Iafallo had 25 points last year. Seems to me Kopitar didn't elevate him that much if he couldn't even help him break 30 points or double digits in goals.

I'd be much more inclined in believing that Dustin Brown had a renaissance year and was a large reason behind Kopitar going from 52 to 92 points. Brown was his most common linemate and together they had a GF% of 63.75.

Actually just looking at the numbers, Kopitar away from Brown last year had a GF% of 33.33 while Brown without Kopi was 58.33%. That's not very nice-looking is it?

As many have mentioned in this discussion, if Drai would only get ONE legit top6 player to play with, you'd see results. Brown was that legit player for Kopitar last year.

Btw while on the subject, in 16/17 Kopitar scored 12 goals and 52 points. Not very elite of him eh? Wonder what you'd say if it was Draisaitl doing that.

Also, Kopitar has 4 points in 10 games this year, actually being outscored by Alex Iafallo who has 7 points in 11 games. Maybe Iafallo is carrying Kopitar?

Or maaaaaaybe it is more likely that he just hasn't meshed that well with Kovalchuk and Iafallo who he has been playing every game with this season while Brown was out of the lineup? But I guess that would kill your narrative against the fact that linemates and chemistry matter.

Kopitar and Brown didn't play a lot away from each other, and when they did Kopitar had an on-ice sv% of 89.60, while Brown's was 94.79. As Kopitars HDCF was better than Brown's I'd chalk that mostly up to bad luck and a relatively small sample size, although upon further inspection it looks like they were both pretty bad when separated.

Lots of players have down years. He was a consistent 70 point guy before that, and has the added bonus of being one of the defensive Cs in the NHL. If Drai didn't bleed goals against I'd have no qualms with him putting up 50-60 points.

 

[StevenF1919]

This is so convoluted. Only 10gp have been played. Any statistics course would advise you against making such forecasts on limited sample. Do you REALLY think Drai could end an NHL season with 25EV posts?

Sometimes I think you post, then think, and just include stuff like this despite how off it is.

Plus, what numbers are you using? Drai has 5EV pts this season. That's on pace for 41 EV pts, not 25.

Plus Drai had 59EV pts last season, 50 the year before.

Yet you cite something like a pace of 25 EV pts knowing full well that assertation is asinine.


This is the difficulty Steven, you are not pursuing this discussion even honest to that which you know. Its picked up on.

I posted numbers from a 170 game sample size (2 seasons plus the games this year) and you dismissed those too. How big of a sample size do you want? Should we wait 15 years until his career is over?

I'm using 5v5 numbers. ES does not make a distinction between 5v5, 4v4, and 3v3. He has 3 5v5 points and only 1 of those came away from McDavid.

Yeah, he had those with McDavid. When not playing with McDavid, he scores 5v5 points at a 1.85 P/60 rate, which is a 35 point pace (playing 14 5v5 minutes a night). Unless he's reunited with Connor, I would put money on him not scoring 50 ES points. Hell, he probably won't even hit 40. He's on pace for 25 this year and he's been awful at 5v5. Yeah, he'll probably get better and put up 30-35 points but he'll still need another 35-40 points on the PP to hit 70. That won't happen.

 

[Zaddy]

Kopitar and Brown didn't play a lot away from each other, and when they did Kopitar had an on-ice sv% of 89.60, while Brown's was 94.79. As Kopitars HDCF was better than Brown's I'd chalk that mostly up to bad luck and a relatively small sample size, although upon further inspection it looks like they were both pretty bad when separated.

I know, but you don't seem to have any problems extrapolating small sample sizes when it comes to Drai so...

Either way that was more of an aside to my post and a bit tongue-in-cheek. The main point being that Kopitar did well because of Brown having a good year, not because he was able to "elevate" someone who scored 25 points on the season. That very much kills your narrative and I hope you realize that.

Lots of players have down years. He was a consistent 70 point guy before that, and has the added bonus of being one of the defensive Cs in the NHL. If Drai didn't bleed goals against I'd have no qualms with him putting up 50-60 points.

Seems to me you're making excuses for Kopitar and give him a lot more leeway than Draisaitl in this discussion. Either way, Kopitar is a 13 year NHL veteran. I would hope that Drai becomes a better defensive player as he accumulates experience and his game matures.

As of right now the kid just turned 23 years old and has two 25+ goals and 70+ point seasons behind him and is currently over PPG. Maybe we can chill out a bit with the criticism?

 

[Drivesaitl]

I posted numbers from a 170 game sample size (2 seasons plus the games this year) and you dismissed those too. How big of a sample size do you want? Should we wait 15 years until his career is over?

I'm using 5v5 numbers. ES does not make a distinction between 5v5, 4v4, and 3v3. He has 3 5v5 points and only 1 of those came away from McDavid.

Yeah, he had those with McDavid. When not playing with McDavid, he scores 5v5 points at a 1.85 P/60 rate, which is a 35 point pace (playing 14 5v5 minutes a night). Unless he's reunited with Connor, I would put money on him not scoring 50 ES points. Hell, he probably won't even hit 40. He's on pace for 25 this year and he's been awful at 5v5. Yeah, he'll probably get better and put up 30-35 points but he'll still need another 35-40 points on the PP to hit 70. That won't happen.

You're all over the map. In the previous post you were leaving everything out, trying to distort that Leon could be on pace for a 25pt season and openly wondering how he's even going to get to 70pts this season and that he would need outlier PP points to do it. These are the things that you post, I'm only responding to the noise.

Take a step back, maybe, and realize how little sense you are making in the discussion.

 

[Duke74]

Drai doesnt need his production to spike. He needs to stop the goal bleeding in his own zone.

He's actually been something like plus-3 or plus-4 during the last 4 games. Not sure why you and Steven picked this time to bash him when he's clearly doing much better.

 

[Duke74]

Our PP% and PK% are reverse images of each other. If we aren't winning at 5v5, we likely aren't winning the game. And take McDavid off that powerplay and see how many points Draisaitl has. He's got 1 point all season when McDavid isn't on the ice with him.

What narrative? It's a fact that he's on pace for 25 5v5 points. To hit that 70 point mark that people keep setting for him, he'd need to put up 45 points on the PP. Last season the league high was 41 PP points. The year before it was 35. What are the chances he beats those numbers?

He's 100% been better the last 3 or so games, but still not good enough.

Hall won a Hart trophy with Jesper Bratt and a rookie in Hischier on his line. Patrick Kane played last season with Nick Schmaltz and a 35 point Brandon Saad. Eric Staal put up 76 points with Jason Zucker and Nino Niederreiter. Kopitar played last season with Alex Iafallo on his line. Elite players elevate the players around them. Draisaitl has not done this. No, McDavid's numbers don't take a hit with worse linemates. In fact, his numbers get slightly worse when he's playing with Draisaitl.

Draisaitl gets easy minutes away from McDavid and still gets outscored by a ratio of 3:2 at 5v5. That's an indisputable fact. His numbers dip significantly to the point where if he were to play away from McDavid at 5v5 and with him on the PP, he would put up between 45-65 points. With no defensive ability to speak of, he's a mediocre #1C or a good #2C. McDavid has made him an extra $2mil per year. McDavid will easily put up 100+ points without Draisaitl. If Draisaitl didn't have 97, he would struggle to break 60. Btw, your eyes are not unbiased, the numbers are unbiased. And they show that Draisaitl massively benefits from McDavid, while McDavid puts up similar numbers (slightly better even) without him.

You still haven't addressed my earlier reply about the extremely small sample of TEN games on which you are basing these numbers. I know that you provided other stats over a three-year period, but I'm talking about your ten-game sample where you project it to a 25-point season. Want to do some small sample size projections? OK. He's currently on pace for 50 goals.

Furthermore, the linemates you mention are night and day better than the crap Draisaitl has been stuck with over the past year. Hischier, Saad, Schmaltz, Niederreiter, and Iafallo are miles ahead of Aberg, Cagguila, Cammerleri, and last year's Lucic. We're talking about a difference between 50-60 point players and 20-point players. That's considerable.

Easy minutes? Drai was matched against Patrick Kane the entire Chicago game.