Series Talk: Leafs vs Jackets- Series Preview and Discussion - II

[Golden_Jet]

So with maximum players at 31 including goalies, it looks like 3 players to cut.

 

[Kiwi]

Interesting names like Gaudet, Kivihalme and Hollowell. The fact they chose Hollowell over Duszak should tell you what they think of Duszak's defensive game.

Wasn't Kivihalme with the Leafs when they went through Minnesota? He was top pair with the Marlies as well so he would have been an easy selection i'd imagine

I'm surprised to see Hollowell though, his defensive game definitely took a step this season so he deserves the recognition imo

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Wasn't Kivihalme with the Leafs when they went through Minnesota? He was top pair with the Marlies as well so he would have been an easy selection i'd imagine

I'm surprised to see Hollowell though, his defensive game definitely took a step this season so he deserves the recognition imo

Kivihalme strugged in that role once Sandin and Liljegren left. He was okay, but definitely didn't outplay the othet guys by a substancial margin. I'm okay with him being included.

Looks like Petan replaced Hollowell so the only weird omission left for me is Gaudet in instead of Bracco.

 

[Kiwi]

Kivihalme strugged in that role once Sandin and Liljegren left. He was okay, but definitely didn't outplay the othet guys by a substancial margin. I'm okay with him being included.

Looks like Petan replaced Hollowell so the only weird omission left for me is Gaudet in instead of Bracco.

To be fair to Kivihalme that team was in a death spiral after the coaching change and with Liljegren, Sandin and Lindgren out he didn't have much to work with

I'm not surprised, Bracco is an extremely limited player who missed a ton of time this season for God knows what reason

 

[Nylander88]

Bracco is getting traded this offseason 100%. There is just no room for him in the organization but there will likely be more than a few teams who could fit him onto their teams, especially with a flat cap.

He's been passed by too many on a team already deep with talent on the wings. Mikheyev, Engvall, Robertson have made him more than expendable. I agree, he'll be moved

 

[Menzinger]

Bracco is getting traded this offseason 100%. There is just no room for him in the organization but there will likely be more than a few teams who could fit him onto their teams, especially with a flat cap.

The fact Bracco never even got a single game callup earlier is pretty telling. I suspect there may be some off ice issues. I expect hes moved prior to the start of next season

 

[stickty111]

Forwards
The top lines are tough in that both kinds of combos could work. Originally I felt Keefe will start with Matthews-Marner, but now I'm not sure. If I had to guess, Keefe goes back to Matthews-Nylander as he did in the Tampa game before the stoppage. I like this combo more then Matthews-Marner, all though I like Tavares-Nylander too, so it's tough.

Here is what I think(forgive me about wingers not being on the correct side)
Nylander-Matthews-Mikheyev/Hyman(mid usage with some tough competition sprinkled in. you could put any of those beside the big boys, but I feel Nylander-Matthews don't need Hyman.
Marner-Tavares-Mikheyev/Hyman(semi mid usage who can be a shutdown line as well in critical moments. This only works though if Marner plays at his best. He was lousy defensively this season)
Engvall-Kerfoot-Kapanen(mid usage with defensive starts mixed in. Only big complaint of Keefe. Why he was hesitant in putting this line together when they dominated in the minutes together?)
Spezza-Gauthier-Clifford(low usage against weak competition. Spezza moves up for faceoffs or offensive situations)

Defence

I am getting more and more warmed up to a Rielly-Dermott pairing. The only issue is it leaves Ceci-Barrie and I am not a fan of that. All though if Keefe can keep those 2 away from tough matchups, it could work. Keefe isn't touching Muzzin-Holl and nor should he.

Here is what I would do assuming Sandin doesn't get in.
Rielly-Dermott(mid usage with some offensive zone shifts where Barrie subs in for Dermott)
Muzzin-Holl(tough shutdown minutes usage)
Ceci-Barrie(low weak usage, one of Dermott, Holl, Muzzin come in for Barrie for defensive situations.
Honestly Barrie is the ex factor. If we get Colorado work horse Barrie, the defence gets a huge boost

Goalies
All up to Andersen here. If he falters in game 1, Keefe needs to go to Campbell in a hurry.

System
I'm excited to see what rumored changes Keefe is making here. This team was average defensively under Keefe which is quite good, but I think they can take another step in their zone, so we'll see what Keefe does there. The PK was fantastic in all metrics, so aside from just going over it again, Keefe shouldn't do much there maybe just little tweaks.

The offense was really good as expected, so thats fine, but maybe there is another level they can get too, so maybe Keefe feels he can make the offense even better. Marner playing up to his capabilities might have the biggest impact.
I would like some changes to the PP though. Sure the execution was good, but the process was average in terms of numbers, which is not good enough for this roster, so whether it's personnel, or system, I would like some kind of a tweak here.

 

[stickty111]

Also a part three should be made to this thread with it near the limit, just in time for training camp tomorrow.

 

[kb]

Forwards
The top lines are tough in that both kinds of combos could work. Originally I felt Keefe will start with Matthews-Marner, but now I'm not sure. If I had to guess, Keefe goes back to Matthews-Nylander as he did in the Tampa game before the stoppage. I like this combo more then Matthews-Marner, all though I like Tavares-Nylander too, so it's tough.

Here is what I think(forgive me about wingers not being on the correct side)
Nylander-Matthews-Mikheyev/Hyman(mid usage with some tough competition sprinkled in. you could put any of those beside the big boys, but I feel Nylander-Matthews don't need Hyman.
Marner-Tavares-Mikheyev/Hyman(semi mid usage who can be a shutdown line as well in critical moments. This only works though if Marner plays at his best. He was lousy defensively this season)
Engvall-Kerfoot-Kapanen(mid usage with defensive starts mixed in. Only big complaint of Keefe. Why he was hesitant in putting this line together when they dominated in the minutes together?)
Spezza-Gauthier-Clifford(low usage against weak competition. Spezza moves up for faceoffs or offensive situations)

Defence

I am getting more and more warmed up to a Rielly-Dermott pairing. The only issue is it leaves Ceci-Barrie and I am not a fan of that. All though if Keefe can keep those 2 away from tough matchups, it could work. Keefe isn't touching Muzzin-Holl and nor should he.

Here is what I would do assuming Sandin doesn't get in.
Rielly-Dermott(mid usage with some offensive zone shifts where Barrie subs in for Dermott)
Muzzin-Holl(tough shutdown minutes usage)
Ceci-Barrie(low weak usage, one of Dermott, Holl, Muzzin come in for Barrie for defensive situations.
Honestly Barrie is the ex factor. If we get Colorado work horse Barrie, the defence gets a huge boost

Goalies
All up to Andersen here. If he falters in game 1, Keefe needs to go to Campbell in a hurry.

System
I'm excited to see what rumored changes Keefe is making here. This team was average defensively under Keefe which is quite good, but I think they can take another step in their zone, so we'll see what Keefe does there. The PK was fantastic in all metrics, so aside from just going over it again, Keefe shouldn't do much there maybe just little tweaks.

The offense was really good as expected, so thats fine, but maybe there is another level they can get too, so maybe Keefe feels he can make the offense even better. Marner playing up to his capabilities might have the biggest impact.
I would like some changes to the PP though. Sure the execution was good, but the process was average in terms of numbers, which is not good enough for this roster, so whether it's personnel, or system, I would like some kind of a tweak here.

Well thought through post. Great job.

I actually like what Zeke had posted on the D pairings with numbers. He showed that the ideal pairings were (when healthy):

Muzzin - Holl (take all the tough D matchups, especially in the Leafs' zone)
Rielly - Ceci (a healthy Rielly is the X factor, especially not having to do the heavy D lifting)
Dermott - Barrie (this pairing has the possibility of dominating the 3rd pairing matchups.)

If Andersen gets hot and the Leafs stay injury/Covid free, I think they have a great shot to do some real damage.

 

[weems]

Well thought through post. Great job.

I actually like what Zeke had posted on the D pairings with numbers. He showed that the ideal pairings were (when healthy):

Muzzin - Holl (take all the tough D matchups, especially in the Leafs' zone)
Rielly - Ceci (a healthy Rielly is the X factor, especially not having to do the heavy D lifting)
Dermott - Barrie (this pairing has the possibility of dominating the 3rd pairing matchups.)

If Andersen gets hot and the Leafs stay injury/Covid free, I think they have a great shot to do some real damage.

Ceci is a pretty interesting case.
Analytics people hate him while some eyetest people think he's solid and does his job

I think our most talented setup would be Rielly - Dermott, Muzzin - Holl and Sandin -Barrie but that might not be the best setup for a playoff series with Sandin - Barrie potentially being a tirefire defensively.

Will be interesting to see how they make the pairings but Ceci most likely gets in because of his experience, size and PK ability.

 

[kb]

Ceci is a pretty interesting case.
Analytics people hate him while some eyetest people think he's solid and does his job

I think our most talented setup would be Rielly - Dermott, Muzzin - Holl and Sandin -Barrie but that might not be the best setup for a playoff series with Sandin - Barrie potentially being a tirefire defensively.

Will be interesting to see how they make the pairings but Ceci most likely gets in because of his experience, size and PK ability.

Sandin is just not ready yet. Before he got sent down, he was getting caved in with 3rd pairing duties, and it really became apparent that he needs more speed and strength to compete at this level, especially in the playoffs.. The talent is obviously there, it's just that right now he is a serious downgrade from Ceci in both analytics and the eye test.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Sandin is just not ready yet. Before he got sent down, he was getting caved in with 3rd pairing duties, and it really became apparent that he needs more speed and strength to compete at this level, especially in the playoffs.. The talent is obviously there, it's just that right now he is a serious downgrade from Ceci in both analytics and the eye test.

Sandin really only got caved in when he was paired with Liljegren. When he was with other players he ranged from fine to very good. Sandin-Ceci was actually a really good pair, although that would involve sitting Barrie and that's probably not ideal. Plus let's not forget we haven't seen him play since March, and he could be a different player now

 

[Nylander88]

I'm excited to see Robertson possibly push his was onto the team. What a find that was for us in the late second round! He plays with some edge to him as well, which is always welcome come playoff time

 

[stickty111]

Sandin is just not ready yet. Before he got sent down, he was getting caved in with 3rd pairing duties, and it really became apparent that he needs more speed and strength to compete at this level, especially in the playoffs.. The talent is obviously there, it's just that right now he is a serious downgrade from Ceci in both analytics and the eye test.

To be fair, the analytics were fine for Sandin, but the eye test defensively for Sandin wasn't good at all. There was a stat which showed the amount of goals against he was on the ice for, and some of them he played a part in. Sandin also hasn't shown he can produce 5 on 5 offense yet in the NHL, and with him not being on the PP with Rielly and Barrie back, there is no point playing him, so you rather get the better defensively and PK option in Ceci

 

[stickty111]

You have to think Robertson plays in the exhibition game for sure, if he has a chance at making the roster.

 

[kb]

To be fair, the analytics were fine for Sandin, but the eye test defensively for Sandin wasn't good at all. There was a stat which showed the amount of goals against he was on the ice for, and some of them he played a part in. Sandin also hasn't shown he can produce 5 on 5 offense yet in the NHL, and with him not being on the PP with Rielly and Barrie back, there is no point playing him, so you rather get the better defensively and PK option in Ceci

Agreed. Sandin's analytics were decent in a vacuum for a rookie defender, but he was facing 3rd pairing competition for the most part. The most concerning thing to me was that he was taking some really big hits near the end. Ceci was facing higher quality competition, and as you mentioned, is better defensively, plays the right, and is very good on the PK.

 

[X66]

I think I’d play Sandin, especially if he looks to be a big part of next years team, might as well get him this experience since the ahl playoffs are done.

I know I’ve said it a million times but we might see a completely different version of our young guys, because it might be their “next season” version we see...

 

[deletethis]

I'm bullish on Sandin as a great prospect but I don't think he plays unless one of Rielly/Muzzin/Dermott go down with an injury.

 

[ACC1224]

I think I’d play Sandin, especially if he looks to be a big part of next years team, might as well get him this experience since the ahl playoffs are done.

I know I’ve said it a million times but we might see a completely different version of our young guys, because it might be their “next season” version we see...

I'd be very surprised if they play guys just to get them experience.
IMO, they will dress what they feel are the best 20 players to win.

 

[Cleetus]

so are the leafs going to practice today?

 

[ACC1224]

so are the leafs going to practice today?

Cup quest begins...Camp is open!!

 

[stickty111]

Early indications of the lines.

 

[Nylander88]

Early indications of the lines.

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander back together. Love it. This line should stay unless things are going stale in a game and need a shake up. Tavares needs Marner more than Matthews does.

 

[Nylander88]

Looks like Ceci is going to get a lot of ice if he's back to being Reilly's partner

 

[Magic Man]

Where is Liljegren?