TSN: Leafs deadline wants: RHD or Power forward?

[Snowman]

Its better than what the Rangers got for McDonagh.

Just because 1 GM sells low doesn't mean every other GM has to. Plus AP is better than McD.

 

[seanlinden]

Just because 1 GM sells low doesn't mean every other GM has to. Plus AP is better than McD.

This is entirely predicated on the notion that the Blues do not incision signing Pietrangelo, and want to rebuild.

Pietrangelo is a great dman, but there aren't a ton of teams that are going to be lining up to give up their best prospect, a 1st round pick, and a young roster player with upside for him.

Plus the fact that with Pietrangelo, there would be a realistic chance of a success-driven conditional coming true. He also has a full NTC.

 

[Snowman]

This is entirely predicated on the notion that the Blues do not incision signing Pietrangelo, and want to rebuild.

Pietrangelo is a great dman, but there aren't a ton of teams that are going to be lining up to give up their best prospect, a 1st round pick, and a young roster player with upside for him.

Plus the fact that with Pietrangelo, there would be a realistic chance of a success-driven conditional coming true. He also has a full NTC.

Well, yes I can see you are trying to paint your offer in the best possible light. However, if you look at it realistically you're offering:
A late first (okay, but not great value).
a player that will never be more than a 3rd or 4th liner.
A good defensive prospect (being your best prospect doesn't make him more valuable).

For a 1 RHD that incidentally put up 54 points last year. In other words a lowball offer.

Plus you expect them to retain.

 

[wintersej]

For a deal for Simmonds we should look at a comparable of previous deadline deals since the market has kind of been set for good secondary scoring with size on an expiring deal. I'd like to look at a little better deal than what Rick Nash got from Boston last year. A B level prospect, 2 expiring forwards, and a first round pick.

Rick Nash for Beleskey, Spooner, Lindgren, 1st and a late pick.


So a deal for Simmonds could look along the lines of maybe a B prospect, decent young forward, a 1st and a mid round pick.

A level considering as potential top 6 F or top 4 D
B level considering as potential NHL player

A prospect for Leafs:
Rasmus Sandin
Timothy Liljegren

B/C level prospects:
Calle Rosen
Trevor Moore
Jeremy Bracco
Andreas Borgman
Carl Grundstrom

So maybe depending on need a Rosen/Moore/Bracco, an Andreas Johnsson (I think of him highly and would prefer not but if that's the price to pay, maybe you consider but I prefer they considered Brown lol), 1st round pick, 3rd/4th round pick.


Wayne Simmonds

for

Bracco, Johnsson/Brown, 1st, 3rd






For Gudas a comparable deal would be Brendan Smith from two years ago, who went for a 2nd and a 3rd round pick (I believe he was under contract as well but at the time had good metrics)

so

Gudas

for

2nd round pick 2019
3rd round pick 2020.

Nash went for a cap dump with term that belongs in the AHL in Beleksey, a potential bottom pairing D man in Lindgren, a young one dimensional forward that will be paid less as a UFA than he did with the threat of arbitration in Spooner and a late 1st.

 

[seanlinden]

Well, yes I can see you are trying to paint your offer in the best possible light. However, if you look at it realistically you're offering:
A late first (okay, but not great value).
a player that will never be more than a 3rd or 4th liner.
A good defensive prospect (being your best prospect doesn't make him more valuable).

For a 1 RHD that incidentally put up 54 points last year. In other words a lowball offer.

Plus you expect them to retain.

Look at what McDonagh was traded for....Tampa did that deal while holding their 2 most valuable prospects, and basically no roster players when you consider that they got Miller as well.

On another team, brown is a 3rd liner with easy 2nd line upside.

 

[Snowman]

Look at what McDonagh was traded for....Tampa did that deal while holding their 2 most valuable prospects, and basically no roster players when you consider that they got Miller as well.

On another team, brown is a 3rd liner with easy 2nd line upside.

So, you're argument is that since one GM made a mistake with a player not as good as AP, that all GM's should? You keep ignoring that AP is a much better player than McD.

Brown is no more than a 3rd liner on any team.

I understand if that is all you want to pay, it's just that you're offer would easily be beaten by another team.

 

[DictatorTots427]

What would be the ask for Ferland? I would love him on the Leafs, I think he would complete this forward group. As for defenseman, I would like Jensen or Pysyk. What would be the ask for them?

 

[seanlinden]

So, you're argument is that since one GM made a mistake with a player not as good as AP, that all GM's should? You keep ignoring that AP is a much better player than McD.

Brown is no more than a 3rd liner on any team.

I understand if that is all you want to pay, it's just that you're offer would easily be beaten by another team.

Trading McDonagh wasn't a mistake. It was the right move in the decision the Rangers made to rebuild.

Your memory is a little short... it wasn't too long before McDonagh was traded that he was widely considered a top 5 defenceman in the NHL. Pietrangelo appears to be on the same type of trajectory, and the Blues need to make a decision as to whether they want to keep him long term.

WRT to another team, I'd be curious to see other prospective offers. Short of somebody willing to do a 1-for-1 type trade (which is obviously extremely rare) -- they're most likely looking at a package of 2-3 of a team's higher end non-roster assets, and/or young roster players.

 

[93LEAFS]

Trading McDonagh wasn't a mistake. It was the right move in the decision the Rangers made to rebuild.

Your memory is a little short... it wasn't too long before McDonagh was traded that he was widely considered a top 5 defenceman in the NHL. Pietrangelo appears to be on the same type of trajectory, and the Blues need to make a decision as to whether they want to keep him long term.

Pietrangelo's just had triplets, and he's married to a woman from St. Louis. He has a full no-trade clause. I don't think he's going to get moved. And, if he does, he will probably leverage it to a very limited amount of teams which will hurt his value and make him less likely to be traded.

McDonagh was never considered top 5 in the league. he was at-best in the 10-15 territory. He was always viewed as behind guys like Karlsson, Doughty, and Hedman, and probably behind Josi, Pietrangelo, Subban, Suter, and Burns. Keith, and Weber were also held in higher regard

 

[Snowman]

Trading McDonagh wasn't a mistake. It was the right move in the decision the Rangers made to rebuild.

Your memory is a little short... it wasn't too long before McDonagh was traded that he was widely considered a top 5 defenceman in the NHL. Pietrangelo appears to be on the same type of trajectory, and the Blues need to make a decision as to whether they want to keep him long term.

WRT to another team, I'd be curious to see other prospective offers. Short of somebody willing to do a 1-for-1 type trade (which is obviously extremely rare) -- they're most likely looking at a package of 2-3 of a team's higher end non-roster assets, and/or young roster players.

Well, I think we can agree there, but that isn't what you offered. Your offer was one good prospect a late pick and meh roster player. That's why I think your offer would be beat.

 

[seanlinden]

Pietrangelo's just had triplets, and he's married to a woman from St. Louis. He has a full no-trade clause. I don't think he's going to get moved. And, if he does, he will probably leverage it to a very limited amount of teams which will hurt his value and make him less likely to be traded.

Maybe not... obviously nobody really knows what St. Louis is thinking, because they haven't made any moves as of yet.

What we do know, is that he's got a year and a half left on his deal. He'll be 30 years old when that deal kicks in, with around 750 games of NHL experience. Presumably, he'd act in a fashion similar to basically every marquee UFA to come before him, and seek what will essentially be, his last big contract. The decision factors will be overall dollar commitment (not necessarily years), and where he wants to likely finish up his career. He'll also be getting a highly restrictive NMC, which will require him to be protected in the expansion draft.

Given that, St. Louis needs to decide whether they view him as part of the solution, or as somebody that they're prepared to move on from as they build around a new, younger core. If he's part of the solution, then there's nothing that anyone is going to trade to make him available. If they think they're 3-4 years away from contending, and are concerned over what that deal is going to look like at that time, then they should look to maximize his value... which would mean trading him this year, when they can get the draft picks earlier, and when a team can offer him an 8th year on his deal, and at the very least, gets 2 shots at winning a cup with him.

The expansion draft is also not something to ignore WRT Pietrangelo.... Parayko, Edmunson, and Dunn would all be expansion draft eligible.

 

[Boxscore]

Simmonds, Gudas and a *2nd

for

Kapanen and Der-Arguchinstsev

*If Simmonds re-signs with the Leafs, the Flyers get their 2nd back.

 

[seanlinden]

Well, I think we can agree there, but that isn't what you offered. Your offer was one good prospect a late pick and meh roster player. That's why I think your offer would be beat.

It's exactly what I offered.

Sandin or Liljegren (whichever St. Louis views as Toronto's best prospect)
Brown (good young roster player)
1st Round Pick (likely Toronto's 3rd best asset after Sandin/Liljegren)
Conditional Pick (Based on Team Success)

In total, 2 of their top assets, and young roster player - 3 total assets.

 

[93LEAFS]

Maybe not... obviously nobody really knows what St. Louis is thinking, because they haven't made any moves as of yet.

What we do know, is that he's got a year and a half left on his deal. He'll be 30 years old when that deal kicks in, with around 750 games of NHL experience. Presumably, he'd act in a fashion similar to basically every marquee UFA to come before him, and seek what will essentially be, his last big contract. The decision factors will be overall dollar commitment (not necessarily years), and where he wants to likely finish up his career. He'll also be getting a highly restrictive NMC, which will require him to be protected in the expansion draft.

Given that, St. Louis needs to decide whether they view him as part of the solution, or as somebody that they're prepared to move on from as they build around a new, younger core. If he's part of the solution, then there's nothing that anyone is going to trade to make him available. If they think they're 3-4 years away from contending, and are concerned over what that deal is going to look like at that time, then they should look to maximize his value... which would mean trading him this year, when they can get the draft picks earlier, and when a team can offer him an 8th year on his deal, and at the very least, gets 2 shots at winning a cup with him.

The expansion draft is also not something to ignore WRT Pietrangelo.... Parayko, Edmunson, and Dunn would all be expansion draft eligible.

My point was, I don't think Pietrangelo will accept just any trade. He has a full NTC for this year and next. So, getting maximum value for him will be difficult. So, the whole thing is really out of St. Louis's hands. It is why I would think he is the least likely piece to be moved. Guys like Kessel, Heatley, and Nash returned less than their perceived value because NTC or limited NTC severely reduced the market for them.Or even Iginla at the deadline. McDonagh had a 10 team no-trade list, which reduces the market but not significantly.

Pietrangelo, along with Steen and Bouwmeester are the only guys with full-NTC's. Its why they may be shopping a guy like Tarasenko for a major shake-up, as his trade market isn't restricted at all.

People seem to be ignoring that he may be unwilling to move. Considering his family situation, I can see why he wouldn't want to be uprooted mid-year.

 

[seanlinden]

Overall, one has to wonder whether Dubas has the fortitude to pull off 2 big fish defencemen.... would certainly put the Leafs into contender status, and I think they'd approach a Boston/Tampa series with a lot more confidence.


Something along the lines of:
Nylander for Brett Pesce, Warren Foegele, 2018 2nd Round Pick

Zaitsev, 2018 1st Round Pick, Carolina 2nd Round Pick, Sandin/Liljegren, 2020 2nd Round Pick (Becomes 1st if Toronto Wins Cup in either 2019 or 2020) for Pietrangelo with $2m retained.

Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Matthews-Kapanen
Marleau-Kadri-Brown
Foegele-Lindholm-Ennis

Rielly-Pesce
Gardiner-Pietrangelo
Dermott-Hainsey
Oz

 

[Snowman]

It's exactly what I offered.

Sandin or Liljegren (whichever St. Louis views as Toronto's best prospect)
Brown (good young roster player)
1st Round Pick (likely Toronto's 3rd best asset after Sandin/Liljegren)
Conditional Pick (Based on Team Success)

In total, 2 of their top assets, and young roster player - 3 total assets.

No. You're offering Brown a meh roster player (not a good young player). He's the kind of player that every team has plenty of a bottom 6 expendable player. Plus late picks and a good, not great prospect.

I don't know about you, but I would never give up one of the better #1RHD's in the league for that.

 

[seanlinden]

My point was, I don't think Pietrangelo will accept just any trade. He has a full NTC for this year and next. So, getting maximum value for him will be difficult. So, the whole thing is really out of St. Louis's hands. It is why I would think he is the least likely piece to be moved. Guys like Kessel, Heatley, and Nash returned less than their perceived value because NTC or limited NTC severely reduced the market for them.Or even Iginla at the deadline. McDonagh had a 10 team no-trade list, which reduces the market but not significantly.

Pietrangelo, along with Steen and Bouwmeester are the only guys with full-NTC's. Its why they may be shopping a guy like Tarasenko for a major shake-up, as his trade market isn't restricted at all.

People seem to be ignoring that he may be unwilling to move. Considering his family situation, I can see why he wouldn't want to be uprooted mid-year.

Of course not, he's going to be highly selective... but if the Blues decide he's not somebody they're prepared to give a big long term deal to, that limitation of value will carry forward right until the end of the contract.

Like you said, with McDonagh, the Rangers had 20 teams they could have traded him to. Pietrangelo, given his personal circumstances, it'll probably be 3-4.

 

[seanlinden]

No. You're offering Brown a meh roster player (not a good young player). He's the kind of player that every team has plenty of a bottom 6 expendable player. Plus late picks and a good, not great prospect.

I don't know about you, but I would never give up one of the better #1RHD's in the league for that.

Of course not... if he's a guy that you consider part of your plan, he's not tradable.

If he's a guy that they're looking to maximize value out of, then you take what you can get.

 

[Critical13]

I think we need 4th line C/RW and 3rd pairing RD upgrades more than anything.

Our top 9 and top 4 matched up with TBay quite well but our depth got steamrolled.

 

[hector morrison]

Of course not, he's going to be highly selective... but if the Blues decide he's not somebody they're prepared to give a big long term deal to, that limitation of value will carry forward right until the end of the contract.

Like you said, with McDonagh, the Rangers had 20 teams they could have traded him to. Pietrangelo, given his personal circumstances, it'll probably be 3-4.

What kinda money does a top 5 Dman command these days or more accurately in a year and a half?

 

[Snowman]

Of course not... if he's a guy that you consider part of your plan, he's not tradable.

If he's a guy that they're looking to maximize value out of, then you take what you can get.

That we agree on. I'm just pointing out that your offer won't be the best that they can get if he becomes available, especially since you want them to do you a solid and retain salary on him without being compensated for it.

 

[seanlinden]

What kinda money does a top 5 Dman command these days or more accurately in a year and a half?

That will all depend on how he plays over the next year and a bit.

Drew Doughty would be a cieling IMO, as their contracts would cover very similar terms (Pietrangelo would be 1 year older when starting his 8 year deal), with Ryan McDonagh being a floor.... so somewhere between $7m and $11m.

The interesting thing will be to see whether over the next year or so, Doughty's deal morphs into a cautionary tale like Kane & Toews. It has become a younger man's game.... in Norris voting last year, the only players over 28 who recieved votes were:

Burns - 32 years old, 8th place, but a late bloomer
Vlasic - 30 years old, 10th place
Suter - 33 years old, 13th place
Chara - 40 years old, 15th place
Giordano -34 years old, 16th place

2017-18 NHL Awards Voting | Hockey-Reference.com

Burns was the only 1 with a first place vote, and he had 1 of them. One has to believe that Suter and Chara's votes were also influenced by the fact that they've historically been so good.

 

[seanlinden]

That we agree on. I'm just pointing out that your offer won't be the best that they can get if he becomes available, especially since you want them to do you a solid and retain salary on him without being compensated for it.

Who's likely to offer more? and what are they offering?

 

[sxvnert]

RHD is by far the most important next piece to the puzzle. Power forwards are great but the leafs can make due without one (as do other teams).

 

[hector morrison]

That will all depend on how he plays over the next year and a bit.

Drew Doughty would be a cieling IMO, as their contracts would cover very similar terms (Pietrangelo would be 1 year older when starting his 8 year deal), with Ryan McDonagh being a floor.... so somewhere between $7m and $11m.

The interesting thing will be to see whether over the next year or so, Doughty's deal morphs into a cautionary tale like Kane & Toews. It has become a younger man's game.... in Norris voting last year, the only players over 28 who recieved votes were:

Burns - 32 years old, 8th place, but a late bloomer
Vlasic - 30 years old, 10th place
Suter - 33 years old, 13th place
Chara - 40 years old, 15th place
Giordano -34 years old, 16th place

2017-18 NHL Awards Voting | Hockey-Reference.com

Burns was the only 1 with a first place vote, and he had 1 of them. One has to believe that Suter and Chara's votes were also influenced by the fact that they've historically been so good.

Thanks for the insight. So .the Leafs would in all likely-hood be renting Pietro. I'm sure there may be a few teams who would entertain the idea of keeping him long term,but I don't think the Leafs are one of them.