Leafs Core and Cap Looking Forward

[Hawaiinleaf]

i agree Liles is the key...No way we should have bought out Komi...it should have been Liles and there would be no issue at all..

 

[hotpaws]

The Liles situation will most likely determine a lot of what happens.

Liles is still an NHL Calibar Dman. Toronto simply has Franson, Rielly, Gardiner who are offensive dman with defensive holes that Carlyle would rather have in the lineup.

I don't consider buying out Liles the best option cause we don't have a compliance buyout.

The Liles contract fortunately only pays 2.75 in real dollars the last year so I most likely see Nonis taking advantage of the Toronto money making machine. I'd look at a budget team like the Canes or Blue Jackets finding a back-loaded Liles contract to have appeal but we'd have to take on an evenly distibuted or back-loaded contract that has a similar cap hit like Ruutu or Gleason or Umberger.

Take Gleason for Liles as an example.

Gleason. 4 cap hit. Owed 8 million over next two seasons.

Liles. 3.875 cap hit but owed 7 million over next two seasons.

Canes are already saving a million in real dollars. Leafs retain something like another 200 or 300K per year + add in a mid-round pick like a 3rd or secondary propsect whose reaching waiver status like D'Amigo or Blacker

Works out to:

Canes get Liles + around 1.5 in real extra dollars over the next two seasons to spend on other areas of the roster + 3rd or a depth prospect.

Leafs gain the better Dman whose overpaid in cap hit in Gleason at around 4.25 (4 + 250K or so retained) but it should be viewed more like a 3 cap hit (because the other option is to have Liles buyout against the cap and for a long 4 years).

When you have to work this hard to spin a trade you know the other team is getting shafted .

 

[Community]

I don't understand why people in this thread are saying things like "Gardiner is just like Rielly, so we have to trade one".... Are you guys against a defense in a few years that looks like this:

Rielly - Phaneuf
Gardiner - Franson/Finn/Percy

That looks pretty good to me if Finn/Percy can progress to 2nd pairing Dmen which is certainly possible (hell, Percy almost looked like a top 4 dman this year already).

Also, we won't be giving Reimer more $ than Bernier unless he outplays him... Can you imagine Nonis saying to Bernier "Yeah, you're the Number 1.... but we're gonna give your back-up more money, okay? sweet." And if Reimer outplays Bernier, than we most likely will trade Bernier as we should be pretty confident in Reimer.

Also, I'd rather lose Raymond before Kulemin, Kulemin should be cheaper (look at his goal totals, no way he's getting 3.5-4m like some people have been posting... he should get 2.5-3m) and he's a great defensive forward which is what we need.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Keep Kule, core piece. If everything goes right, I'd either let Raymond walk if his demands are too much or Fraser + Ranger (if he continues to play terrible, although I still believe in him).

Promote one of our guys, I like Granberg, for example.

I'd love to keep Kule but unless he is willing to take 2M over 2, I think we have the replacements that are cheaper to do the job that are in the minors.

Our drafts from 2009 and beyond have stocked our cupboard with solid bottom 6 guys for years to come. I love Kule, but he's one of the guys that looks like we won't be able to fit in under the cap and sign all the other guys we need to re-sign.

 

[notdoneyet]

I'd love to keep Kule but unless he is willing to take 2M over 2, I think we have the replacements that are cheaper to do the job that are in the minors.

Our drafts from 2009 and beyond have stocked our cupboard with solid bottom 6 guys for years to come. I love Kule, but he's one of the guys that looks like we won't be able to fit in under the cap and sign all the other guys we need to re-sign.

i agree with this 100 per cent

guys like broll and ashton can provide just as much checking
and defensive hockey as kule does. I think at the trade deadline
pittsburgh gets him for a young prospect or draft pick

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Resigning Bolland and McClement is a must in my opinion. Who are their comparables in the league contract-wise?

Chris Kelly is making about 3.5mm for Boston
Jarrett Stoll 3.25mm for Los Angeles
Boyd Gordon got 3mm from Edmonton

I would say their value on the open market would be something in the range of 3 to 3.5mm per season.

 

[NarcoPolo]

The area that impresses me most is our young core on defense moving forward.

Rielly Percy
Finn Gardiner
Macwilliam Granberg

That could possibly be our lineup on the backend one day.. And a pretty good one at that if these players develop

 

[Faltorvo]

I'd love to keep Kule but unless he is willing to take 2M over 2, I think we have the replacements that are cheaper to do the job that are in the minors.

Our drafts from 2009 and beyond have stocked our cupboard with solid bottom 6 guys for years to come. I love Kule, but he's one of the guys that looks like we won't be able to fit in under the cap and sign all the other guys we need to re-sign.

Fitting Kuli in under that cap won't be the issue that your hinting at, if my projections are right (PS, I'm pretty good at it ).

I can't fully agree with your opinion on the replacements either.

Not when you look at his PK play and his ability to emerg slot into the top 6 and not look sadly out of place.

That kind of flexibility, is a thing that coach's kill for.

 

[Faltorvo]

Btw anyone thinking Bolland is getting anywhere below 4 is just kidding him/herself.

Bolland is as clutch as one can get. If Bozo the clown commanded 4.2 mil (which I still think is obnoxious) Bolland is certainly worth 4 mil.


The way I see it.

JayMc: 2 to 2.5 mil
Bolland: 4 to 4.5 mil
Gards: 1.9 to 2.5 mil (Bridge contract)
Kuli: 3 to 3.5 mil (migh test FA as bud Grabo is not here)
Raymond: 2.5 to 3 mil
Dion: 6.75 to 7.5 mil
Franson: 3 to 3.75 mil (long term or 4 to 4.5 mil short term)
Fraser: 1.5 to 1.9 mil
Ranger: 1.5 to 2 mil
Reimer: 2.9 to 3.5 mil (Berniers contract will be the starting point)


Ashton: RFA - 600K to 800K

Bodie: UFA - 600-750K or else Good Bye

so in total we need approx:

29.5 to 34.65 mil in cap space (not including Ashton and Bodie)

Now from CapGeek we will have withtout anyone signed approx. 21.5 mil in cap space using the current cap. Now lets suppose the cap goes up by 5 mil.

Then in total we will have 26.5 mil in cap space.

So we have 26.5 mil available to pay approx (take avg of the above i.e. 29.5+34.65) = 32.075 mil

so now 32.075-26.5 = 5.575 less. Now if we buy out Liles the first year we will have 0.79mil of cap hit we add the remaining to 5.75

-(5.75)+3.085 = approx. - 2.66 mil

Basically we need to let one contract worth 2.5 mil go away to meet cap

Now who do we let go?

-We can let Raymond walk or trade him
-Let Fraser and Ranger walk or trade them
-Trade Reimer and have a cheap backup or trade Bernier and have a cheap backup
-Let Kuli walk or trade him

As far as I can tell: from the 4 provided above:
-IMHO I would let Raymond walk or trade him, if and only if, we get Kuli signed before the end of the season. Or else we trade or let Kuli walk.

OR

We let Ranger walk or trade him (save 1.5 to 2 mil) and negotiate with the rest to let 500K go. i.e. If 5 to 6 guys let 100 to 150K less on their contract to that we are cap compliant I see most of the roster returning.
Wouldn't miss Ranger as we have Percy (who looked great in pre-season) and MacWilliam (also looked great in the pre-season) to take that spot.

OR

Trade Reimer or Bernier I guess if we can get a top 10 pick. Edmonton will be the front runner with the kind of crap goal tending they are having.

The way Nonis has negotiated with some players (excluding: Bozak and clarkson) I have full confidence in him that we will see almost all of the roster returning intact except one (or possibly 2) players.

Not sure you are catching it just right. Close tho.

Your adding 4 forwards contracts and ATM capgeeks is counting us with 10 forward contracts next year, we are not gonna run with 14 forwards. So it's safe to say we can add 500/750k to our cap allowance.

i think your way high with Dion at 7.5m, he is not going to come in as basically the 2nd highest cap hit among all D in the league.

Dion is going to want his money and DN is going to want a good cap hit, with the option of a 8 year contract, there is plenty of wiggle room there to make both happy.

And i don't see DN running a combined cap hit of 5.8m + in the pipes.

So the way i see it

add 500/750k to our cap, by dropping 1 forward to the AHL.

add 1m for Dions cap hit.

and have a 1m back up tender, saving us what in cap hit? 1.8m/2.5m by your numbers?

So added all up we looking to add ballparkish 3.3m/4m cap space.

 

[JackJ]

Btw anyone thinking Bolland is getting anywhere below 4 is just kidding him/herself.

Bolland is as clutch as one can get. If Bozo the clown commanded 4.2 mil (which I still think is obnoxious) Bolland is certainly worth 4 mil.

Since Boz, Kadri, and Bolland will be our 1/2/3 for the next 2-3 years. Paying 14-15m for all three is reasonable.

 

[K19*]

People thinking Kulemin will re-sign for 2-2.5 are delusional. It's fine because we have a plethora of bottom 6ers who can replace him. Mcclement won't get that little either.

 

[Eb]

Honestly, I would not shed a tea if Kadri were to leave if we got an upgrade (defense or centre) for him. Love the Kid but it's


not
Kadri for me


I've been asking for a while, and you'll have to wonder - I think our chance to get our minute muncher (that makes SENSE) was gone this year, and it wasn't any fault of our own. I would have liked Ferrence, but he went home. So did Rob Sceurdi. (or home-ish, anyway).

there's nothing in this UFA market I'd really touch (and I'll admit I'm not the best judge of talent but even with then, it's no one that screams "yes - that person would really fit in here).

so I wonder if Nonis will just stick with what he has defense wise until "THE TRADE" happens. (whatever it will be).

stick with Gunnarson/Phaneuf
stick with Gardiner <<--- if he doesn't 'get better' when we Schenn him)
secure Franson & Fraser
and Percy and the other guy (MacWilliam)? grow from within.
oh and Ranger and Rielly.

ditto with the centre position. no one i'd sign really - so we keep what we have. I think something that would shock a lot of people but not me, is that Nazem WILL be in play for a "THE TRADE" deal. I don't know why I feel this way - but I think it just goes down to, I could sort of see why Franson was holding out. (even though I'm not a big fan of holdouts), Kadri didn't have a big case with me.

at any rate. I see the tradeable pieces in our future being
Reimer
Kadri
Gardiner

Daniel Giradi

- 29 years young
- From Welland, ON
- Played in Guelph during his OHL tenure
- Oh, he is a right handed shot defenceman too

 

[ACC1224]

People thinking Kulemin will re-sign for 2-2.5 are delusional. It's fine because we have a plethora of bottom 6ers who can replace him. Mcclement won't get that little either.

I'd be surprised if Kulemin finishes the season with the Leafs.

 

[pspot]

Players like Reimer, Kadri, Kulemin are going to want to get paid for the role they think they should be

Reimer is going to want starter money, 4.5 to 5 per
Kadri top 6 or maybe even top 3 forward, 5 to 6 per
Kulemin not sure but I'd guess around 3

They won't be agreeing to these cap friendly deals ie so the leafs can keep two starting goalies and they have to split time

Imo they are looking at
Reimer or Bernier
Phanuef or Gardiner
Kulemin or Bolland

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Resigning Bolland and McClement is a must in my opinion. Who are their comparables in the league contract-wise?

Chris Kelly is making about 3.5mm for Boston
Jarrett Stoll 3.25mm for Los Angeles
Boyd Gordon got 3mm from Edmonton

I would say their value on the open market would be something in the range of 3 to 3.5mm per season.

Bolland comparables: Kelly (3.5), Stoll (3.25), Cullen (3.5), Read (3.625), Bozak (4.2). With the cap going around 4 seems like a reasonable number to expect.

McClement comparables: 2 best comparables: Gregory Campbell (1.6), Talbot (1.75). Other comparables: Gordon (3) Kruger (1.325), Moore (1). Around 2 is the highest I'd go. No way should we overpay a 4th line center just like Boston, Chicago, Pittsburgh lets their 4th lines guys go and seem to find replacement instead of overpaying so can we.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Bolland comparables: Kelly (3.5), Stoll (3.25), Cullen (3.5), Read (3.625), Bozak (4.2). With the cap going around 4 seems like a reasonable number to expect.

McClement comparables: 2 best comparables: Gregory Campbell (1.6), Talbot (1.75). Other comparables: Gordon (3) Kruger (1.325), Moore (1). Around 2 is the highest I'd go. No way should we overpay a 4th line center just like Boston, Chicago, Pittsburgh lets their 4th lines guys go and seem to find replacement instead of overpaying so can we.

I like your comps for McClement. Hopefully that's around what we sign him for. He's so important to our team. 1.5mm-1.75mm is plenty fair in my opinion for a 4th line PK specialist.

 

[zeke]

No good team wastes big money on bottom liners.

The only bottom-6 forward I would spend more than $1m on would be Bolland going forward. The rest of the bottom 6 spots should be filled by kids and cheapo FAs.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

No good team wastes big money on bottom liners.

No one is talking about paying "big money." They're talking about fair market value for critical components of our team.

Boston
Chris Kelly 3.5mm
Greg Campbell 1.7
Shawn Thornton 1.1mm
Dan Paille 1.3mm

Los Angeles
Jarret Stol 3.25mm
Kyle Clifford 1mm
Trevor Lewis 1.32

San Jose
Tyler Kennedy 2.35mm
Raffi Torres 2.1mm
Adam Burish 1.85mm

St. Louis
Vladimir Sobotka 1.4mm
Brendan Morrow 1.5mm
Max Lapierre 1.2mm

Washington
Jason Chimera 1.7mm
Eric Fehr 1.6mm
Jay Beagle 1mm
Martin Erat 3.75mm
Troy Brouwer 3.75mm

Even Chicago, when they won the Cup last year had Bolland at 3.375mm and Stalberg making 2.5mm, and they still have Marcus Kruger making 1.4mm and Handzus making 1mm. After this season all of Brandon Pirri, Andrew Shaw, and Ben Smith are RFAs and due raises as well.

 

[ACC1224]

No good team wastes big money on bottom liners.

The only bottom-6 forward I would spend more than $1m on would be Bolland going forward. The rest of the bottom 6 spots should be filled by kids and cheapo FAs.

1m doesn't get you much.

 

[JackJ]

No one is talking about paying "big money." They're talking about fair market value for critical components of our team.

Boston
Chris Kelly 3.5mm
Greg Campbell 1.7
Shawn Thornton 1.1mm
Dan Paille 1.3mm

Los Angeles
Jarret Stol 3.25mm
Kyle Clifford 1mm
Trevor Lewis 1.32

San Jose
Tyler Kennedy 2.35mm
Raffi Torres 2.1mm
Adam Burish 1.85mm

St. Louis
Vladimir Sobotka 1.4mm
Brendan Morrow 1.5mm
Max Lapierre 1.2mm

Washington
Jason Chimera 1.7mm
Eric Fehr 1.6mm
Jay Beagle 1mm
Martin Erat 3.75mm
Troy Brouwer 3.75mm

Even Chicago, when they won the Cup last year had Bolland at 3.375mm and Stalberg making 2.5mm, and they still have Marcus Kruger making 1.4mm and Handzus making 1mm. After this season all of Brandon Pirri, Andrew Shaw, and Ben Smith are RFAs and due raises as well.

Precisely.

#3: Kulemin (2m) Bolland (4m) McClement (2m)
#4: Broll/Devane/McLaren/Orr/Ashton/Bodie

Exceptional 3rd line at a fair price.

 

[ACC1224]

Precisely.

#3: Kulemin (2m) Bolland (4m) McClement (2m)
#4: Broll/Devane/McLaren/Orr/Ashton/Bodie

Exceptional 3rd line at a fair price.

They'll have to pay Kulemin more than that if they want to keep him.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I rather pay for balance, than be in a Washington situation of playing Ovie a Max cap salary.

Having a great a #3 line that scores and defends is just as valuable than having 1 elite C, 1 2 elite wingers compressed into 1 line.

Balance is the way to go.

 

[JackJ]

They'll have to pay Kulemin more than that if they want to keep him.

If so I would move on. He doesn't provide enough offensively to justify more than 2m.

 

[ACC1224]

If so I would move on. He doesn't provide enough offensively to justify more than 2m.

I expect he'll be moved at some point this season.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I rather pay for balance, than be in a Washington situation of playing Ovie a Max cap salary.

Having a great a #3 line that scores and defends is just as valuable than having 1 elite C, 1 2 elite wingers compressed into 1 line.

Balance is the way to go.

100% agree.

I don't mind skimping on the 4th line. But a good 3rd line is crucial. They're usually your best defensive forwards, and if you have one that can also produce offense, that's worth its weight in gold.