Leafs Core and Cap Looking Forward

[Intact]

I'm surprised people are so ready to give Raymond a raise, he's the definition of a stop-gap piece that we bought low on

 

[Pi]

I'm surprised people are so ready to give Raymond a raise, he's the definition of a stop-gap piece that we bought low on

Yeah...I like Raymond at 1M just like I liked MacArthur at 1M.

Not sure I like Raymond at 3M.

I'd rather have Leivo take his spot next year.

Lot of competition for that spot next year...Leivo, Biggs, Gauthier (as a winger), D'Amigo, Ross etc.

 

[ECanuck]

well no. i didn't mean that.
I meant that - say that for the next two years he duplicated exactly what happened last year: really hot, and then a huge drop off. but he asks for a lot of money

do you pay for that really hot and big drop, or do you go - hm. no.

if he makes it to centre numero uno, Nonis flat out said he'd sign him if it worked out.

Our eight million dollar forward went cold for 15 games at some points of past seasons.

If all players were that good night in and night out Crosby would look ordinary.

 

[Diatomic]

well no. i didn't mean that.
I meant that - say that for the next two years he duplicated exactly what happened last year: really hot, and then a huge drop off. but he asks for a lot of money

do you pay for that really hot and big drop, or do you go - hm. no.

if he makes it to centre numero uno, Nonis flat out said he'd sign him if it worked out.

If a players really hot for 2 years, there's every right to believe he's the real deal. 48 games is one thing, but 2 full length seasons going near PPG, theres no denying that.

 

[4evaBlue]

Kadri folks, what do we do with him if he hits 70 points in one of his next 2 seasons?

Long term or will he out price himself on our team?

Depends on if he learns to play Carlyle's game. More or less in the same boat as Jake is in right now, except the returns would be significantly greater. I'd love to get him locked up.

The real question is, how many players do we want to have locked up for max term and is Kadri one of those players? Is Phaneuf? Don't want to have too many people signed for that length. We've been down that road not that long ago.

 

[34]

Defence

Phaneuf
Franson
Fraser
Gardiner

^ All need to stay.

Ranger - has to go. Not impressed with his play.

Forwards

Bolland stays!
Kulemin - He is effective, but I can see him traded.

 

[TheBigThree]

Mcclement is a must sign IMO. He's our pk. Then it's kulemin vs bolland. Both bring a lot to the table but if bolland keeps playing the way he has then I go with bolland. Regarding reimer, bernier, kadri and gardiner I would have to say Kadri and whoever becomes the 1g are top priority. Rielly > gardiner right now, because essentially they have the same game and reilly has more upside. Then a trade package of goalie and gardiner will be very enticing.

 

[thewave]

You pump Bozak's tires like it is your job. Is it your job?

I have wondered this myself, regardless the only worse contract to Bozaks is Clarkson.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Depends on if he learns to play Carlyle's game. More or less in the same boat as Jake is in right now, except the returns would be significantly greater. I'd love to get him locked up.

The real question is, how many players do we want to have locked up for max term and is Kadri one of those players? Is Phaneuf? Don't want to have too many people signed for that length. We've been down that road not that long ago.

True, you don't want to hand out too many long term contracts that may tie your hands later on. Management needs to identify the core players and ones that are replaceable parts. Looking around the league there are usually 5-7 core contracts. Leafs are at 5 already. Makes the decisions on Phaneuf, Kadri, Bolland difficult ones. Would Dion and Bolland sign elsewhere if we do not offer 5 plus years? And will Kadri hold out again or ask for a trade if Nonis and co deem him too expensive to re-sign?

 

[leafstilldeath*]

Btw anyone thinking Bolland is getting anywhere below 4 is just kidding him/herself.

Bolland is as clutch as one can get. If Bozo the clown commanded 4.2 mil (which I still think is obnoxious) Bolland is certainly worth 4 mil.


The way I see it.

JayMc: 2 to 2.5 mil
Bolland: 4 to 4.5 mil
Gards: 1.9 to 2.5 mil (Bridge contract)
Kuli: 3 to 3.5 mil (migh test FA as bud Grabo is not here)
Raymond: 2.5 to 3 mil
Dion: 6.75 to 7.5 mil
Franson: 3 to 3.75 mil (long term or 4 to 4.5 mil short term)
Fraser: 1.5 to 1.9 mil
Ranger: 1.5 to 2 mil
Reimer: 2.9 to 3.5 mil (Berniers contract will be the starting point)


Ashton: RFA - 600K to 800K

Bodie: UFA - 600-750K or else Good Bye

so in total we need approx:

29.5 to 34.65 mil in cap space (not including Ashton and Bodie)

Now from CapGeek we will have withtout anyone signed approx. 21.5 mil in cap space using the current cap. Now lets suppose the cap goes up by 5 mil.

Then in total we will have 26.5 mil in cap space.

So we have 26.5 mil available to pay approx (take avg of the above i.e. 29.5+34.65) = 32.075 mil

so now 32.075-26.5 = 5.575 less. Now if we buy out Liles the first year we will have 0.79mil of cap hit we add the remaining to 5.75

-(5.75)+3.085 = approx. - 2.66 mil

Basically we need to let one contract worth 2.5 mil go away to meet cap

Now who do we let go?

-We can let Raymond walk or trade him
-Let Fraser and Ranger walk or trade them
-Trade Reimer and have a cheap backup or trade Bernier and have a cheap backup
-Let Kuli walk or trade him

As far as I can tell: from the 4 provided above:
-IMHO I would let Raymond walk or trade him, if and only if, we get Kuli signed before the end of the season. Or else we trade or let Kuli walk.

OR

We let Ranger walk or trade him (save 1.5 to 2 mil) and negotiate with the rest to let 500K go. i.e. If 5 to 6 guys let 100 to 150K less on their contract to that we are cap compliant I see most of the roster returning.
Wouldn't miss Ranger as we have Percy (who looked great in pre-season) and MacWilliam (also looked great in the pre-season) to take that spot.

OR

Trade Reimer or Bernier I guess if we can get a top 10 pick. Edmonton will be the front runner with the kind of crap goal tending they are having.

The way Nonis has negotiated with some players (excluding: Bozak and clarkson) I have full confidence in him that we will see almost all of the roster returning intact except one (or possibly 2) players.

 

[4evaBlue]

Btw anyone thinking Bolland is getting anywhere below 4 is just kidding him/herself.

Bolland is as clutch as one can get. If Bozo the clown commanded 4.2 mil (which I still think is obnoxious) Bolland is certainly worth 4 mil.


The way I see it.

JayMc: 2 to 2.5 mil
Bolland: 4 to 4.5 mil
Gards: 1.9 to 2.5 mil (Bridge contract)
Kuli: 3 to 3.5 mil (migh test FA as bud Grabo is not here)
Raymond: 2.5 to 3 mil
Dion: 6.75 to 7.5 mil
Franson: 3 to 3.75 mil (long term or 4 to 4.5 mil short term)
Fraser: 1.5 to 1.9 mil
Ranger: 1.5 to 2 mil
Reimer: 2.9 to 3.5 mil (Berniers contract will be the starting point)


Ashton: RFA - 600K to 800K

Bodie: UFA - 600-750K or else Good Bye

so in total we need approx:

29.5 to 34.65 mil in cap space (not including Ashton and Bodie)

Now from CapGeek we will have withtout anyone signed approx. 21.5 mil in cap space using the current cap. Now lets suppose the cap goes up by 5 mil.

Then in total we will have 26.5 mil in cap space.

So we have 26.5 mil available to pay approx (take avg of the above i.e. 29.5+34.65) = 32.075 mil

so now 32.075-26.5 = 5.575 less. Now if we buy out Liles the first year we will have 0.79mil of cap hit we add the remaining to 5.75

-(5.75)+3.085 = approx. - 2.66 mil

Basically we need to let one contract worth 2.5 mil go away to meet cap

Now who do we let go?

-We can let Raymond walk or trade him
-Let Fraser and Ranger walk or trade them
-Trade Reimer and have a cheap backup or trade Bernier and have a cheap backup
-Let Kuli walk or trade him

As far as I can tell: from the 4 provided above:
-IMHO I would let Raymond walk or trade him, if and only if, we get Kuli signed before the end of the season. Or else we trade or let Kuli walk.

OR

We let Ranger walk or trade him (save 1.5 to 2 mil) and negotiate with the rest to let 500K go. i.e. If 5 to 6 guys let 100 to 150K less on their contract to that we are cap compliant I see most of the roster returning.
Wouldn't miss Ranger as we have Percy (who looked great in pre-season) and MacWilliam (also looked great in the pre-season) to take that spot.

OR

Trade Reimer or Bernier I guess if we can get a top 10 pick. Edmonton will be the front runner with the kind of crap goal tending they are having.

The way Nonis has negotiated with some players (excluding: Bozak and clarkson) I have full confidence in him that we will see almost all of the roster returning intact except one (or possibly 2) players.

I think you're severely underrating Franson. As low as $3M per year on a long term contract? Surely, you're not serious.

I'd rather keep Raymond over Kulemin.

It's too early to make any judgement calls on Ranger.

 

[leafspring*]

Such eloquence...

Such truth too.

 

[leafstilldeath*]

The caps escalation is not known by anyone but there is a consensus here of the amount.lol well that's not surprising seeing everyone,knows everything around here. Most here wouldn't know their arse from a hole in the ground on cap escalation.

Opinions are like [insert two bolded words from the quote] everybody has got one. You provided yours as well. Henceforth, doesn't matter.

Welcome to an internet board!

 

[Razz]

If the Cap doesn't go up by more than 5mil and we can't move Liles (buyout seems likely now), the Leafs are in for a tough off season again.

I can see the Leafs making a move at the draft like most cap strapped teams and pick up a high pick for one or two of our RFAs. This would be ideal.

It's going to be virtually impossible to re-sign everyone if this team goes far. We have too many bargain contracts to deal with. Ranger, Raymond, Franson and Gardiner are all playing well under market value. I'd argue McLement probably is a bit underpaid as well.

 

[firstemperor]

Keep Kule, core piece. If everything goes right, I'd either let Raymond walk if his demands are too much or Fraser + Ranger (if he continues to play terrible, although I still believe in him).

Promote one of our guys, I like Granberg, for example.

 

[leafstilldeath*]

I think you're severely underrating Franson. As low as $3M per year on a long term contract? Surely, you're not serious.

I'd rather keep Raymond over Kulemin.

It's too early to make any judgement calls on Ranger.

From what we know about rumours Franson was looking for something like a 3 mil deal. singing Franson for 3 to 3.5 mil shouldn't be too hard next season with a longer term deal i.e. if he agress of course. Lets say Franson signs 3 to 3.5 mil deal for 2 years getting paid more and providing some cap relief for two years, He can sign a longer deal with big bucks with the Leafs as cap would have gone up 2 years later.

Raymond is good but Kulimen is the kind of player that play roles to win their teams the cup. For me Kuli over Raymond.

Agreed about Ranger, but we do have a deep pool of D so there really is no need to empty the cap bank on him

 

[leafstilldeath*]

If the Cap doesn't go up by more than 5mil and we can't move Liles (buyout seems likely now), the Leafs are in for a tough off season again.

I can see the Leafs making a move at the draft like most cap strapped teams and pick up a high pick for one or two of our RFAs. This would be ideal.

It's going to be virtually impossible to re-sign everyone if this team goes far. We have too many bargain contracts to deal with. Ranger, Raymond, Franson and Gardiner are all playing well under market value. I'd argue McLement probably is a bit underpaid as well.

Personally I still think it is a good idea to trade Liles with a million of his salary retained even if we do not get anything. It is better than the buy out and the other team gets NHL proven PMD for 2 (or 3 if now) years for 2.875. Its a WIN-WIN situation.

 

[4evaBlue]

Keep Kule, core piece. If everything goes right, I'd either let Raymond walk if his demands are too much or Fraser + Ranger (if he continues to play terrible, although I still believe in him).

Promote one of our guys, I like Granberg, for example.

My issue isn't w/ Kulie per say, but for the role Kulemin plays, I much prefer to have Bolland on the wing long term. That way, the 3rd line has 2 centers with Bozak and Bolland.

A Kulemin-Bozak-Bolland line would be rock solid defensively, with McClement as a potential replacement, but the offensive punch of the line would take a beating with Kulemin/McClement.

Raymond has the wheels to make things happen, decent vision (he'll curl back in the offensive zone to wait for reinforcements instead of just blindly shooting it around the boards) and I think he'd complement the Bozak-Bolland pairing's skill-set more than Kulemin would as a third wheel.

I also like what Bodie brings to the team and would like to more of him on the PK. His puck pursuit and intensity are pretty decent.

 

[DD03]

There's no way we pay Bolland more then Bozak.

 

[4evaBlue]

From what we know about rumours Franson was looking for something like a 3 mil deal. singing Franson for 3 to 3.5 mil shouldn't be too hard next season with a longer term deal i.e. if he agress of course. Lets say Franson signs 3 to 3.5 mil deal for 2 years getting paid more and providing some cap relief for two years, He can sign a longer deal with big bucks with the Leafs as cap would have gone up 2 years later.

The bolded part is what I don't think will happen. He took less for this season in order to be able to negotiate a better deal next season, with all the teams receiving some cap relief. He will very likely file for arbitration if the Leafs try to lowball him.

 

[leafstilldeath*]

The bolded part is what I don't think will happen. He took less for this season in order to be able to negotiate a better deal next season, with all the teams receiving some cap relief. He will very likely file for arbitration if the Leafs try to lowball him.

Isn't it the case that in arbitration usually the 3rd party agress to a mid point deal? For example: if Franson is asking for 5 million and Leafs are offering 3 million then the midpoint would be somewhere around 3.8 to 4.2 million in range (4 mill to be exact). That should be fine. I do not see Franson asking for 5.5+ mill he really hasn't accomplished anything to that extent yet.

 

[Hawaiinleaf]

I think we can deal Reimer and bring in a replacement also one of our current D will have to be dealt and a cheaper player comes in


Liles....cap goes up amd his contract is one year less may make it easier to move him and his contract

 

[Seventeen Twos]

Kulemin stays motherf&#($@

 

[Orfieus]

Going to keep this simple, if JML is still a Leaf by next season TO loses a big young player next year. It is that simple.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

I think we can deal Reimer and bring in a replacement also one of our current D will have to be dealt and a cheaper player comes in

Liles....cap goes up amd his contract is one year less may make it easier to move him and his contract

The Liles situation will most likely determine a lot of what happens.

Liles is still an NHL Calibar Dman. Toronto simply has Franson, Rielly, Gardiner who are offensive dman with defensive holes that Carlyle would rather have in the lineup.

I don't consider buying out Liles the best option cause we don't have a compliance buyout.

The Liles contract fortunately only pays 2.75 in real dollars the last year so I most likely see Nonis taking advantage of the Toronto money making machine. I'd look at a budget team like the Canes or Blue Jackets finding a somewhat front-loaded Liles contract to have appeal but we'd have to take on an evenly distibuted or back-loaded contract that has a similar cap hit like Ruutu or Gleason or Umberger.

Take Gleason for Liles as an example.

Gleason. 4 cap hit. Owed 8 million over next two seasons.

Liles. 3.875 cap hit but owed 7 million over next two seasons.

Canes are already saving a million in real dollars. Leafs retain something like another 200 or 300K per year + add in a mid-round pick like a 3rd or secondary propsect whose reaching waiver status like D'Amigo or Blacker

Works out to:

Canes get Liles + around 1.5 in real extra dollars over the next two seasons to spend on other areas of the roster + 3rd or a depth prospect.

Leafs gain the better Dman whose overpaid in cap hit in Gleason at around 4.25 (4 + 250K or so retained) but it should be viewed more like a 3 cap hit (because the other option is to have Liles buyout against the cap and for a long 4 years).