Leafs Chances of Making Playoffs (Reddit User)

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Strange thing to say in a thread dedicated to pace and prediction.

I just post reality and reality is.

4 up on Montreal.

5 up on Buffalo

5 up on Florida

6 up on Tampa

That's what's real, that's what matters, that's what counts.

 

[7even]

Tampa didn't win those games yet. They still have to win them.

We have 59.0 pt%
they have 57.1 pt%

That means we have done better with the games we played than they did with theirs.
We can't control the schedule, but if we are getting more points per game than them then the games in hand don't mean much.

Yes, sure. The % difference between our point percentage and their point percentage is 4%. That means, without change, it would take ~53 games played for that % difference to translate into one full point up in the standings for us. So yeah, we've done better in our games to the tune of less than 2 points per 82 game season. That's the margin we're talking about.

I expect them to be right there with us.

 

[willmma]

Yes, sure. The % difference between our point percentage and their point percentage is 4%. That means, without change, it would take ~53 games played for that % difference to translate into one full point up in the standings for us. So yeah, we've done better in our games to the tune of less than 2 points per 82 game season. That's the margin we're talking about.

I expect them to be right there with us.

We're on pace to 96 points. They're on pace to 93. That translates in playoffs for us, out of playoffs for them.

But in any case, my point is that we are doing well enough not to have to worry about their games in hand.

 

[HolyCrap]

We're on pace to 96 points. They're on pace to 93. That translates in playoffs for us, out of playoffs for them.

But in any case, my point is that we are doing well enough not to have to worry about their games in hand.

true. I guess I don’t really hold as much weight in the stats. I personally think Tampa are just playing their game and learned lastyear not to burn out in the reg season. I feel they are a sleeping giant. Saving themselves for playoffs and aiming at 2nd or 3rd in Atlantic. Meaning not playing Bruins first round and getting hot at the right time. This is just a hunch but I think they learned a lot lastyear and only care about post season. They could be scary good soon. Or they could miss playoffs entirely. I hope I’m wrong.

 

[7even]

We're on pace to 96 points. They're on pace to 93. That translates in playoffs for us, out of playoffs for them.

But in any case, my point is that we are doing well enough not to have to worry about their games in hand.

Right you are. I forgot to convert wins to 2pts not 1. The percents are accurate tho. It would take 53 games to translate to one full win up. That agrees with your Δ3pts at season's end.

I agree with your point only insomuch we're concerned about a playoff spot and not specific seeding.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Let me remind you folks:

Other teams have defensive breakdowns. Other teams have giveaways. Other teams have sloppy plays.

Under Keefe in terms of GA/60, we're ahead of 'good defensive' teams such as Arizona/Nashville/Vegas and very similar to Islanders/Washington/Tampa. How is that possible?

Yes we truly need to fix up the sloppy play. But it's not the end of the world.

 

[toasterart]

Let me remind you folks:

Other teams have defensive breakdowns. Other teams have giveaways. Other teams have sloppy plays.

Under Keefe in terms of GA/60, we're ahead of 'good defensive' teams such as Arizona/Nashville/Vegas and very similar to Islanders/Washington/Tampa. How is that possible?

Yes we truly need to fix up the sloppy play. But it's not the end of the world.

- This is also why I get annoyed by comments like "trade Nylander/ Kapanen/ Johnnson etc for defensive help" ... we picked up Muzzin, and Barrie, both of which were highly regarded players... but once on the Leafs, when people actually watch them play, they realize they make mistakes, suddenly they're garbage, and we need new ones... trade for some new defensemen who are great? what do you know? they also make mistakes, and the fans will run them out of town, while pining over other teams 'flawless' defenders

 

[deprw]

Yes, sure. The % difference between our point percentage and their point percentage is 4%. That means, without change, it would take ~53 games played for that % difference to translate into one full point up in the standings for us. So yeah, we've done better in our games to the tune of less than 2 points per 82 game season. That's the margin we're talking about.

I expect them to be right there with us.

Tampa Bay will have tough schedule ahead, because they haven't played that much yet. We had that part all ready and it wasn't easy. They have more away games left, three exactly. Six four game weeks and five 2B2s. They have to earn those points. We have +3 games at home, three 2B2s and 4 four game weeks. So we are in lot better position schedule wise than Tampa Bay. They have full grind ahead, though they have team to back it up.

We'll be lot wiser after January. Tampa Bay will have 10 road games with Pacific road trip and three home games. We have six home games and four games on road. Interesting to see those all-star game rosters, which team will get more players there.

We'll see if Jon Cooper have shelf life past January 2020.

 

[Spargon]

Let me remind you folks:

Other teams have defensive breakdowns. Other teams have giveaways. Other teams have sloppy plays.

Under Keefe in terms of GA/60, we're ahead of 'good defensive' teams such as Arizona/Nashville/Vegas and very similar to Islanders/Washington/Tampa. How is that possible?

Yes we truly need to fix up the sloppy play. But it's not the end of the world.

How dare you bring logic and reason into this. Every player must be flawless and play to the prescribed HFBoards definition of "gritty" play or else you are a scrub and must be traded for scraps so we can start over because <insert team> is so much better in <perceived area of concern>

 

[Warden of the North]

Let me remind you folks:

Other teams have defensive breakdowns. Other teams have giveaways. Other teams have sloppy plays.

Under Keefe in terms of GA/60, we're ahead of 'good defensive' teams such as Arizona/Nashville/Vegas and very similar to Islanders/Washington/Tampa. How is that possible?

Yes we truly need to fix up the sloppy play. But it's not the end of the world.

Remember when Barrie and Muzzin came here and hfboards and the media all declared they were our best 2 dmen by miles?

Well, weve all seen the results. Theyre just players. Neither is better then Rielly, neither is better then Gardiner in his best years. Hell, Muzzin isnt any better then Phaneuf in his last few years here.

Other teams have issues. Other players arent always perfect. The grass, in fact, is not always greener on the other side.

 

[Joey Hoser]

We're on pace to 96 points. They're on pace to 93. That translates in playoffs for us, out of playoffs for them.

But in any case, my point is that we are doing well enough not to have to worry about their games in hand.

I fully expect both teams to finish convincingly above both numbers.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Remember when Barrie and Muzzin came here and hfboards and the media all declared they were our best 2 dmen by miles?

Well, weve all seen the results. Theyre just players. Neither is better then Rielly, neither is better then Gardiner in his best years. Hell, Muzzin isnt any better then Phaneuf in his last few years here.

Other teams have issues. Other players arent always perfect. The grass, in fact, is not always greener on the other side.

That's the pefect saying: "The grass is always greener on the other side."

If Matthews and Marner score on a 2-on-1, it's because they're godly offensive players. BUT if the Leafs get scored against on a 2-on-1, it's because the Leafs are terrible defensively.

I do think Muzzin is much better than Phaneuf tbh, but I agree with you about Gardiner/Barrie. It's very hard to play in Toronto IMO under the media and fan scrutiny. Every single play is analyzed and the end of the world.

 

[Bedards Dad]

Let me remind you folks:

Other teams have defensive breakdowns. Other teams have giveaways. Other teams have sloppy plays.

Under Keefe in terms of GA/60, we're ahead of 'good defensive' teams such as Arizona/Nashville/Vegas and very similar to Islanders/Washington/Tampa. How is that possible?

Yes we truly need to fix up the sloppy play. But it's not the end of the world.

As long as there are any goals against, hell even shots against people here will find ways to complain about our Defence. Until we have the Jennings, Vezina, Norris and Selke all in one year our D will be shit on.

 

[Bedards Dad]

We're on pace to 96 points. They're on pace to 93. That translates in playoffs for us, out of playoffs for them.

But in any case, my point is that we are doing well enough not to have to worry about their games in hand.

I don't believe we will keep up the same pace, but since Keefe took over we are on pace for 123 points (24 points in 16 games).

Babcock had us on pace for 78 points (22 points in 23 games).

If we did keep up the Keefe winning % thats 88 points in 59 games for a total of 110.

My opinion is we finish somewhere around 100. Using Babcocks games to artificially lower our projects total based off win % is faulty at best.

 

[The90]

Remember when Barrie and Muzzin came here and hfboards and the media all declared they were our best 2 dmen by miles?

Well, weve all seen the results. Theyre just players. Neither is better then Rielly, neither is better then Gardiner in his best years. Hell, Muzzin isnt any better then Phaneuf in his last few years here.

Other teams have issues. Other players arent always perfect. The grass, in fact, is not always greener on the other side.

The best part of that is that there’s nothing wrong with that. Gardiner and phaneuf took way too much heat for their skill sets.

Phaneuf took a lot of tough #1 d minutes when in reality he was a #2/3 d pushed into that role out of necessity.

gardiner was and is an offensive defensemen. The reality of that is going to be defensive mistakes for the sake of being more focused on scoring than keeping the puck out. But bad hockey players they were not.

people need to realize that the depth players in hockey aren’t all stars. They’re role players. You can’t expect perfection from them every night the same as you can’t expect marner and Matthews to have 5 points every night.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

View attachment 289011

Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com

View attachment 297533

63% chance of playoffs.

Now we are .... 65.8 !

Basically doubled our chances of a playoff spot in under 3 weeks.

 

[hullsy47]

Remember when Barrie and Muzzin came here and hfboards and the media all declared they were our best 2 dmen by miles?

Well, weve all seen the results. Theyre just players. Neither is better then Rielly, neither is better then Gardiner in his best years. Hell, Muzzin isnt any better then Phaneuf in his last few years here.

Other teams have issues. Other players arent always perfect. The grass, in fact, is not always greener on the other side.

Games played on skates
Usually who has the best goalie and least mistakes win
The leafs forwards make good defenceman fuk up too

 

[Gary Nylund]

10th overall but only 7th in the East. Still, that's a huge climb in a short period of time so looking good.

I'll say it again - that web site is "dumb", our PO chances are way better than 65%, even without Mikheyev.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I do not care about the games in hand, until they are played they do not matter

Of course they matter, don't be silly.

 

[Burnie97]

10th overall but only 7th in the East. Still, that's a huge climb in a short period of time so looking good.

I'll say it again - that web site is "dumb", our PO chances are way better than 65%, even without Mikheyev.

Definitely sucks about Soups, but there is plenty of options for guys that can be given a chance to fill in.

I agree though... playoffs right now feel at about 80%... itll be a lot higher soon if they continue this play.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Definitely sucks about Soups, but there is plenty of options for guys that can be given a chance to fill in.

I agree though... playoffs right now feel at about 80%... itll be a lot higher soon if they continue this play.

I think I said 98% the other day, barring a slew of injuries. That still feels right though that might be the homer in me speaking. Still, I thought this team should be battling for 1st overall and since Keefe took over, we've been playing like that team so yeah, it's hard for me to see how we can possibly miss the playoffs.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I think I said 98% the other day, barring a slew of injuries. That still feels right though that might be the homer in me speaking. Still, I thought this team should be battling for 1st overall and since Keefe took over, we've been playing like that team so yeah, it's hard for me to see how we can possibly miss the playoffs.

Don't they have the best record in the league since the coaching change? If not, then it must be pretty damn close.

 

[Spargon]

As long as there are any goals against, hell even shots against people here will find ways to complain about our Defence. Ujtil we have the Jennings, Vezina, Norris and Selke all in one year our D will be **** on.

Our D could be made up of
HFBoards - Top
Six - Best
D-men - Here

Best Goalie Ever

And everyone will still be "lololol Leafs D is a sieve"

 

[Suntouchable13]

Forget about the teams behind us, let's gun for the division lead. Boston is my target. Couldn't care less about the teams behind us.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Of course they matter, don't be silly.

Only after they are played