Leafs Chances of Making Playoffs (Reddit User)

[FireBabcock]

We are officially the #1 team in the league since Sheldon Keefe took-over, in terms of point %.

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What site is that

 

[Dekes For Days]

4 points.

5 points.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I do wonder about this type of thing. Why does the team with the fifth best odds of making the playoffs in the east have better odds of winning two playoff rounds than any of the four teams that would, according to them, likely face easier opponents?

 

[willmma]

I do wonder about this type of thing. Why does the team with the fifth best odds of making the playoffs in the east have better odds of winning two playoff rounds than any of the four teams that would, according to them, likely face easier opponents?

Yes, this is strange

Calgary has 43 points in 39 games.
We have 44 in 38.

Somehow they are 63% likely to make the playoffs and we're at 38%.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yes, this is strange
Calgary has 43 points in 39 games.
We have 44 in 38.
Somehow they are 63% likely to make the playoffs and we're at 38%.

I have no idea how those things are calculated, but Calgary is in a pretty garbage division, so that may play into it.

 

[7even]

Habs have had a butter soft schedule so far.

Their fans are curiously cocky for having both a mediocre roster and mediocre results. It's a great source of pride for them that they're still 2pts behind us, despite us having one of the worst records after 2 months in the entire league. I think Florida is a better team than they are.

 

[qqaz]

Yes, this is strange

Calgary has 43 points in 39 games.
We have 44 in 38.

Somehow they are 63% likely to make the playoffs and we're at 38%.

I don't know about moneypuckdotcom specifically, but I know a lot of these odds systems are based on running a number of simulations. sportsclubstats, for example, does it that way. It's complicated, and far from perfect. But it does give a general idea.

The numbers always get better deeper into the season, as there's more data to work with and less unknowns to project. There's no perfect numbers.

 

[Egghead1999]

Yes, this is strange

Calgary has 43 points in 39 games.
We have 44 in 38.

Somehow they are 63% likely to make the playoffs and we're at 38%.

different division (only 5 teams for 3 divisional spots, and 5 teams for 2 wildcard spots)

 

[notDatsyuk]

Yes, this is strange

Calgary has 43 points in 39 games.
We have 44 in 38.

Somehow they are 63% likely to make the playoffs and we're at 38%.

I can see Calgary with a better chance than Toronto, because the west is generally weaker. But if Pittsburgh ends up fifth in the east, they would likely be WC1, which means they would likely play Boston in the first round, while at least two of the four teams ahead of them would face weaker opponents. So why is Pittsburgh given the best odds of winning two rounds?

 

[Jozay]

I do wonder about this type of thing. Why does the team with the fifth best odds of making the playoffs in the east have better odds of winning two playoff rounds than any of the four teams that would, according to them, likely face easier opponents?

If you click the link, they explain how they come up with these odds.

 

[Jozay]

Yes, this is strange

Calgary has 43 points in 39 games.
We have 44 in 38.

Somehow they are 63% likely to make the playoffs and we're at 38%.

I have no idea how those things are calculated, but Calgary is in a pretty garbage division, so that may play into it.

those odds were calculated on december 13th, they have changed since.

Leafs are sitting at 62.6% right now

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Their fans are curiously cocky for having both a mediocre roster and mediocre results. It's a great source of pride for them that they're still 2pts behind us, despite us having one of the worst records after 2 months in the entire league. I think Florida is a better team than they are.

Florida is a funny one. Their roster seems pretty good, yet you never know with them. They can have a tendency to underachieve. They have seemed to be on the verge for quite some time.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

If you click the link, they explain how they come up with these odds.

Is that the site that excludes overtime wins in their prediction model? Read that somewhere - might be this one.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

63% chance of playoffs.

 

[notDatsyuk]

If you click the link, they explain how they come up with these odds.

I've read it, but it still doesn't make all that much sense.
Washington is given higher odds of making it to the final than Pittsburgh, but Pittsburgh is given higher odds of winning the final.

The more stats you play with, and the more you play with them, the less they make sense, and the easier it becomes to produce the results you want.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

What site is that

Naturalstattrick

 

[Warden of the North]

Bruins need to beat Sabres tonight. Aside from our game its the only other critical matchup.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

All I can tell you is this.

4 up on Montreal

5 up on Buffalo

5 up on Florida

6 up on Tampa.

And IF they win tomorrow they will be 7 back of Boston

At this point Toronto is in full control of home ice.

 

[Vaive50]

All I can tell you is this.

4 up on Montreal

5 up on Buffalo

5 up on Florida

6 up on Tampa.

And IF they win tomorrow they will be 7 back of Boston

At this point Toronto is in full control of home ice.

In addition, not that it matters right now but as a back-up plan, the Leafs are tied for both WC spots which once looked uncatchable.

 

[7even]

All I can tell you is this.

4 up on Montreal

5 up on Buffalo

5 up on Florida

6 up on Tampa.

And IF they win tomorrow they will be 7 back of Boston

At this point Toronto is in full control of home ice.

Tampa has 4(!) games in hand and a better goal differential, I expect them to be right there in it with us moving forward.

 

[A1LeafNation]

At some point tomorrow, Leafs could be 1 point out from 4th overall in the NHL.

 

[Judas Tavares]

I know a lot of people like to play "woe is me" while others simply hate Dubas and call this year a "dogfight to make the playoffs" but honestly I think by game 60 we will be laughing

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Tampa has 4(!) games in hand and a better goal differential, I expect them to be right there in it with us moving forward.

I do not care about the games in hand, until they are played they do not matter

 

[7even]

I do not care about the games in hand, until they are played they do not matter

Strange thing to say in a thread dedicated to pace and prediction.

 

[willmma]

Tampa has 4(!) games in hand and a better goal differential, I expect them to be right there in it with us moving forward.

Tampa didn't win those games yet. They still have to win them.

We have 59.0 pt%
they have 57.1 pt%

That means we have done better with the games we played than they did with theirs.
We can't control the schedule, but if we are getting more points per game than them then the games in hand don't mean much.