Rumor: Leafs agressively after Tanev

[nsleaf]

Wonder if Lou voted?

 

[Sweet Leaf]

Look at some of the teams that have made the finals or won the cup.

Were the 1993 Habs who needed Patrick Roy to be better than any Goalie in NHL history and 10 OT playoff wins better than the Leafs?

Were the 2006 Carolina Hurricanes better than the Leafs?

If you are a 5-10 team in the NHL and you have Freddie Andersen you have a chance. These future years that you think we're going to be so much better than now could be imaginary.

Some of our fanbase is afraid to try and win in spite of the fact that we are right where we need to be. Drop your nuts already. This is a good team.

 

[Macallan18]

Sure, but he's so poor in terms of helping shot creation that it really limits his usefulnes.

Sure we can see that he puts up very good shot suppression numbers....

Relative CA/60, Last 2yrs, Min 1300 min 5v5:

1.Franson -8.4
2.Lindholm -7.8
3.Miller -7.4
4.Manson -7.2
5.Subban -5.5
6.Murphy -5.0
7.Tanev -4.7
8.Niskanen -4.7
9.Slavin -4.7
10.Ekholm -4.7
11.Dillon -4.6
12.Pesce -4.6
13.Giordano -4.5
14.Pysyk -4.5
15.Letang -4.1
16.Hjalmarsson -4.0
17.OEL -3.7
18.Pelech -3.6
19.Doughty -3.5
20.Enstrom -3.5

So Tanev is amongst the best shot suppression dmen.....but then we look at how this top-20 does in terms of shot-creation (Relative CF/60).....

1.Giordano +7.9
2.Lindholm +5.1
3.Letang +4.5
4.Franson +3.1
5.Manson +2.9
6.Ekholm +2.8
7.Miller +2.4
8.Doughty +2.3
9.Niskanen +0.9
10.Pesce +0.8
11.Subban +0.7
12.OEL +0.7
13.Dillon +0.4
14.Slavin +0.2
15.Pysyk -1.6
16.Enstrom -1.6
17.Murphy -2.0
18.Pelech -2.2
19.Tanev -3.4
20.Hjalmarsson -5.9

So he sacrifices all offensive creation to get that shot suppression, and sits in a similar group as Hjalmarsson, Enstrom Pysyk, Murphy, Pelech......but that's before we look at quality of competition.

TOIqoc (quality of competition by opponents' time on ice - which I translate into letter grades to make it easier to understand):

Hjalmarsson A-
Letang A-
Slavin A-
Giordano A-
Pesce B+
Doughty B+
OEL B+
Niskanen B+
Enstrom B+
Tanev B
Subban B
Ekholm B
Lindholm B
Manson B
Pysyk B-
Pelech B-
Murphy C+
Franson C+
Dillon C-
Miller D+

So we can see how this helps us - all those surprising names on the first two lists are a bit exposed here as playing against soft competition.

Tanev gets decent quality of competition, but nothing special, or nothing that makes us believe he's better than his raw numbers. Unlike, say, Hjalmarsson, whose numbers probably take a bit of a beating because he actually does face top line matchups game in and game out.

He's a solid defensive 2nd pair dman, and would fill out our dcorps very nicely.....but the idea of paying a premium price for him as if he's a top-pair impact guy....we really shouldn't do that.

and he suffers from Lupulitis.

 

[Macallan18]

Wonder if Lou voted?

more than once!!!

 

[ShaneFalco]

wow, sounds like we're F'ed.

I'm just not ready to proclaim they're cup contenders like some
I'm sure you have a chart or stats to show they'll win though

 

[Sweet Leaf]

OK we'll try and not win now so you can feel better about trying to win later.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'd like to find out from the "don't mortgage the future" crowd exactly how good we have to be before they are ready to try and win now?

I mean...

- we are one of the 5-10 best teams in the league
- we're one of the youngest teams in the league
- We have depth assets in the minors coming
- We have a legit Vezina candidate in net

How much better does this all need to get before we are all in on winning the cup here???

It's tricky. On one hand, it's we're really good now but on the other hand, our road to the cup is probably one of the toughest in history. Plus we should expect to be in the mix for the next decade so not wanting to give too much future for today is understandable.

I would add that the parts I bolded do zero to help us win now.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Look at some of the teams that have made the finals or won the cup.

Were the 1993 Habs who needed Patrick Roy to be better than any Goalie in NHL history and 10 OT playoff wins better than the Leafs?

Were the 2006 Carolina Hurricanes better than the Leafs?

If you are a 5-10 team in the NHL and you have Freddie Andersen you have a chance. These future years that you think we're going to be so much better than now could be imaginary.

Some of our fanbase is afraid to try and win in spite of the fact that we are right where we need to be. Drop your nuts already. This is a good team.

Nothing imaginary about thinking we should be in the mix for the next decade. Are Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Andersen, Kadri, Rielly and Dermott imaginary? And the fact that you to search through the last 25 years to find these two examples also suggests we should think twice about mortgaging our future to put us over the top today.

 

[ShaneFalco]

OK we'll try and not win now so you can feel better about trying to win later.

Riiigggghhttttt

 

[zeke]

I'm just not ready to proclaim they're cup contenders like some
I'm sure you have a chart or stats to show they'll win though

You probably think more highly of the " legit cup contenders" than they do of themselves.

 

[Sweet Leaf]

It's never going to be an easy road to the cup.

Washington is in the Presidents cup race every year, is a favourite every year, and they never win the cup.

Do we have to be Washington before we're comfortable trading future assets to win now?

For every hypothetical scenario someone can argue why it would be better to get aggressive in future years vs. now I can give a salient argument on why we may have few better opportunities than winning now ie injuries, the salary cap, another teams rebuild surpassing us, a plane crash, only so many chances, thermonuclear war, etc...

Thankfully I believe we have competitive individuals who understand the position we are in managing this team and will not fold tent here.

 

[Marshy]

Those of us who haven't witnessed a Leafs Cup win are still under 50.....with modern medicine advances...we've got lots of time. Stay the course ;-)

 

[Trapper]

OK we'll try and not win now so you can feel better about trying to win later.

Nothing wrong with trying to win now. But be smart about it. Because if you don't, don't devastate the chances to also do so later. You want to start dishing out 1st rounder's and such? That's foolish. That's why we mired in mediocrity for so many years.
We don't need what's available at the deadline. It's a sellers market. Stay away from the injury prone, the Rick Nash, the Shattenkirk, etc. You don't need them.

 

[ACC1224]

Is this rumour considered legit? Usually these threads are moved.

 

[Walshy7]

It's not a stretch. Those two prospects don't make or break our next 10 years.

no they don't at all, but giving up 2 best chances at having high end talent waiting in the wings (Liljegren and the 1st) means we are then hoping and wishing for an elite player in later rounds, Liljegren is currently our best shot at a Top4 RHD who wont cost a fortune to acquire or his contract for at least 3 years. I realize we get Tanev in this deal but he has 3 years left at not insignificant salary and is 28 already, And has insane injury issues already and when players get older they don't get more durable.

Again not saying we wouldn't/shouldn't do that deal for tanev but it is definitely taking away 2 real good chances at young cheap potential elite talent. Rasanen is a lucky dip could be something could be nothing so I don't include him here for obvious reasons

 

[Trapper]

Mortgaging the future?

Is a 1st, Johnsson, Rassanen mortgaging the future?

I mean, if we give up nothing from the roster, and none of Kap, Dermott, Lilly...it's hardly a situation where we've given away a Grade A prospect.

For that matter, if we also traded Gardiner for a 1st and prospect, and JvR for the same... then turned around and essentially sent those to NYR for McDonagh... again... mortgaging the future?

We'd still have all of our core youth...

and a D of...

McDonagh Tanev
Rielly Hainsey
Dermott Zaitsev

for now... with Liljegren replacing Hainsey at some point... I hardly call that mortgaging the future.

So you lose a 1st, Johnsson,Rassanen,JVR,Bozak,Komarov at the end of this year.
Yeah, I call that unacceptable. And you replace with Tanev who doesn't play more than 60 games/year and is injured right now. All those little injuries add up. Today, tomorrow, etc.

 

[Brown Dog]

As Leaf fans, I feel like we should be confident about our chances to make noise in the playoffs with this rostet--yes, even with tough matchups looming.

For same reason I think it's foolhardy to expect our UFAs to be traded at the deadline.

But since we're very likely keeping our "own rentals" and need to continue to have a long view, I would think it doesn't make a tonne of sense to trade futures.

Let's see what this group can do. I feel like the true holes will be exposed in the playoffs and can be addressed in the off-season.

 

[Sweet Leaf]

Nothing wrong with trying to win now. But be smart about it. Because if you don't, don't devastate the chances to also do so later. You want to start dishing out 1st rounder's and such? That's foolish. That's why we mired in mediocrity for so many years.
We don't need what's available at the deadline. It's a sellers market. Stay away from the injury prone, the Rick Nash, the Shattenkirk, etc. You don't need them.

Agreed.

If we did not have tradeable assets beyond Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Reilly, Dermott, Kadri, Zaitsev, ETC... we would not be contemplating this. There is our core we are going to ride with for the next 3-5 years minimum.

But we do...

There are very few teams that are in better position to add than the Leafs.

Not wanting to give up maybe's like Rasanan and speculative draft picks in the late first/second rounds in the position we are in seems overly conservative (to put it as politely as possible) given the position we are in.

 

[ErnieLeafs]

no they don't at all, but giving up 2 best chances at having high end talent waiting in the wings (Liljegren and the 1st) means we are then hoping and wishing for an elite player in later rounds, Liljegren is currently our best shot at a Top4 RHD who wont cost a fortune to acquire or his contract for at least 3 years. I realize we get Tanev in this deal but he has 3 years left at not insignificant salary and is 28 already, And has insane injury issues already and when players get older they don't get more durable.

Again not saying we wouldn't/shouldn't do that deal for tanev but it is definitely taking away 2 real good chances at young cheap potential elite talent. Rasanen is a lucky dip could be something could be nothing so I don't include him here for obvious reasons

I wouldn't do a deal for Tanev at all. Most overrated player on this board, can't stay healthy. No thanks.

 

[Walshy7]

I wouldn't do a deal for Tanev at all. Most overrated player on this board, can't stay healthy. No thanks.

now that we can all agree on

 

[ACC1224]

I wouldn't do a deal for Tanev at all. Most overrated player on this board, can't stay healthy. No thanks.

I wouldn't want them to move anything substantial for him but if a deal could be made without hurting the lineup they'd have to look at it.

 

[Trapper]

The one thing I hope Vegas teaches us is you don't need these overpriced, overpaid, UFA looking for the next big contract coming up players to succeed.
1st round picks plus good prospects for players like Vanek,Hanzel,Nash,etc. just isn't necessary.
Assemble your core and pay them. Do we have everything for the core in place?
Establish and maintain a solid pipeline of players to surround them. Are we strong through the system at all positions?
Then add a UFA here or there to complete,bolster etc.
That's the formula IMO.

 

[Trapper]

I wouldn't want them to move anything substantial for him but if a deal could be made without hurting the lineup they'd have to look at it.

Is Tanev part of the long term solution? Is Vancouver asking for a 1st?
Then move JVR for a 1st plus prospect and send 1st plus lesser prospect for Tanev. Done.

 

[Discordia]

He'd hurt the team just by addiction. He'd get injured in the playoffs, throwing off any chemistry the D has made, and our team would be thrown into chaos.

Stay away from him.

Even if this guy plays amazing for us and becomes a top-pairing guy - that just means the vacuum that would form when he gets injured will sink us.

 

[HarryLime]

I'm sick of seeing his name tbh. I'm sure he's good but Canucks fans literally want Nylander or Marner for him.