Speculation: Laine, Connor, Trouba...Who stays and at what cost?

[BK]

and having to face Trouba within the division in Chicago would hurt too lol. You guys are stacked with D prospects btw

Yes to both.

I am really high on Boqvist and was before the draft.

 

[AmericanDream]

we just get Trouba for a 2nd and mid level prospect - as a thanks for all the years of service Buff has given us lol....

 

[Reddwit]

JVR got $7m for being a one trick pony. If you do one thing better then everybody else then your going to get paid big time.

I shouldn't have to tell someone who joined this board in 2011 that a UFA signing a deal on the open market is in no way comparable to a RFA coming off his ELC.

Also, JVR was overpaid from the moment he signed that deal and he only got 5 years.

 

[Willis88]

well there's no way Laine goes

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

I shouldn't have to tell someone who joined this board in 2011 that a UFA signing a deal on the open market is in no way comparable to a RFA coming off his ELC.

Also, JVR was overpaid from the moment he signed that deal and he only got 5 years.

I don't think UFA and RFA matters much in this day n age. Players are getting paid for what they do, and what they project to be. Laine is the best in the NHL at standing in his spot and hitting the puck. He'll get paid big for that trait.

 

[Dache]

I will go on record saying the Jets won't get a Kadri, Gardiner, and a conditional 1st return for Trouba....let alone a better one.

Having Kadri locked in for 3 more years at $4.5 million for the Jets would be a huge win for them. Gardiner replaces Trouba for this year...certainly not as good...but you added a huge upgrade at C locked in for below market value for 4 playoff runs.

I’d actually be open to that return. My only concern is that even though I don’t mind Kadri I’m not sold that he’s the type of center we need, I’d like more of a playmaker.

 

[sunsetsuperhuman]

Can we get Laine to the Ducks as Teemu 2.0?

I know its not possible but would be nice. He's so much what this team (and 30 other teams) needs.

 

[Reddwit]

I don't think UFA and RFA matters much in this day n age. Players are getting paid for what they do, and what they project to be. Laine is the best in the NHL at standing in his spot and hitting the puck. He'll get paid big for that trait.

Uh, yeah, there is a huge difference between hitting the free market and having competing offers from different teams with different needs and in different stages of competing than....being restricted to one team.

And Laine will totally get paid for being the best at standing in his spot and hitting the puck. Problem is, he’s not going to get paid for anything else.

 

[Reddwit]

Do you not think that a team trading for him will have contract talks before hand? Being one year away from UFA and being one year away from RFA are totally different scenarios. Sure he could go to arbitration. He could also retire. The team he gets traded to would surely do their due diligence before hand.

There is a massive difference between "The team has one year of control" and "If this particular scenario happens, the team has one year of control."

Nonsense. If he's being traded, he's being signed to more than 1 year.

And if he’s being traded to a team he’s signing with for more than a year, then Winnipeg is reducing their pool of bidders down to those Trouba would be willing to sign with long-term before the bidding even starts.

 

[GoJetsGo55]

And if he’s being traded to a team he’s signing with for more than a year, then Winnipeg is reducing their pool of bidders down to those Trouba would be willing to sign with long-term before the bidding even starts.

Yeah I've always assumed that was the case.

 

[JetsHomer]

Pretty sure his dad sat behind me at a playoff game in Winnipeg last year.

Edit: Here's a picture of his dad in Winnipeg. The Winnipeg Free Press Store

Wait you're telling me @Number1RedWingsFan52 has just been making up shit and pretending that he has sources for years now? I for one am completly shocked

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Wait you're telling me @Number1RedWingsFan52 has just been making up **** and pretending that he has sources for years now? I for one am completly shocked

No it came from Jets fans, That Trouba's Dad was banned from entering Canada. Not me.

 

[jboknows]

Trouba 1 year 6m
Laine 6 years 8m
Connor 7 years 7m

I wish you good luck. Think it's gonna cost more than that.

 

[DJBiffWPG]

Connor absolutely is. Kid is a stud.

Not really.
Dig into the numbers.

 

[JetsHomer]

No it came from Jets fans, That Trouba's Dad was banned from entering Canada. Not me.

Just because someone says something on the internet you believe it so much you repeat it hundreds of times without any corroboratation?

 

[gojetsgo]

I think trouba gets traded at the draft, connor gets bridged and laine gets long term

 

[TS Quint]

That's too dangerous. Laine has been so brutal this year. That could potentially turn into a worse contract that Lucic's.

Laine can play 2:30/game on the PP alone, stand on the faceoff dot and score 25 goals/year. That is more than any part of Lucic's game. The rest of his game for the last 2 months has been worrisome.

 

[kelsier]

It depends on what statistics you valued. The Jets success with Scheifele and Wheeler on the ice is much more sustainable, and they dictate possession. The likelihood of Laine's line continually shooting over 15% as a unit is minuscule. That just doesn't happen. If you give most people who are into hockey analytic's this question, which line would they keep, who do you think they'd answer?

Combo 1
CF%: 51.51%
GF%: 54.46
oiSH%: 8.87
Minutes played: 2253

Combo 2
CF%: 49.43%
GF%: 59.21%
oiSH%: 14.66%
Minutes Played: 658

Most people who are looking at that statistically, are going to gamble on combo 1. It has a much larger sample size, is winning the game goal differential wise (not to the extent of combo 2), but isn't as reliant on a crazy shooting percentage holding. Most risk-averse people are going to choose combo 1. It provides much more certainty and less volatility. Obviously, combo 1 is Wheeler and Scheifele togeather since the start of 2016/17, and combo 2 is Scheifele and Laine togeather during that same time period. Since the start of 2017-18, the Scheifele/Wheeler combo actually has a 56.95% GF%, a slightly higher shooting percentage (9.32%) and a slightly lower CF% (50.77). This is still over 1635 minutes.

It's not only Laine shooting but Scheifele as well. The latter actually has a tremendous shot and I'm not at all surprised to see the oiSH% as high as far as the two of them are concerned. Laine's shooting % was never meant to be sustainable (at least according to HFboards) but have a look what the statistics say about it w/o Little. Laine must have at least 2/3 season worth of games without him all in all, and that already is quite an example size to measure from. He literally gets one or two ok'ish scoring chances per game nowadays and if he misses then that's that. In 16-17 S-W were creating offence out of thin air. Yeah, although Wheelers isn't much of a shooter/finisher, he's much better cycle player at the moment. However, at the end of the day what does it even matter how long can a line sustain a cycle when the ultimate goal is to score goals (while attempting to keep your own zone as clear as possible)? Scheifele and Laine created tons of rushes and it was often game over even before it really even begun. One thing you neglected in these stats was the fact that this was Laine's 18 year old rookie season. The same kid who was actually a whole a lot better player at the end of his sophomore year and probably would've built upon that coming into 18-19 had his confidence level not collapsed due to being forced to work in a dysfunctional unit. Meanwhile Wheelers was like what, 30 years old at the time with several years advantage in experience. Nonetheless, what these numbers would look like in reality (today) had that tandem never been broken, no one can really dictate with any kind of certainty. There's no question about which combo actually does look better, but if you want an actual professional opinion on the matter you could always pm and ask Garrett9. He actually does this for the living.

By the way I never even argued that Laine absolutely should play with Scheifele or Wheelers for that matter, but just stay as far away as possible from Little (regardless of the mention about his rewards being kind of non-existent from the two successful seasons). The problem with that is the options are kind of running thin and the Jets pretty much have an elite first line center and punch of 3rd line centers. Which creates a terrible vacuum. Their strength are on the wings and with having mostly goal scoring wingers (aside from Wheelers). If they still had Stastny we obviously would't be having this discussion today. Since they really don't have any good/great NHL caliper playmakers outside the first line, it seems such a waste of having one if not the best shooter in the game with a declining forward who's past his years of offering much support offensively.

Seems we've derailed a bit and it's just kind of pointless to speculate the "what if" scenarios. To get back to the topic, I think they'll have a heck of a task trying to tie him into a new contract once ELC wears off. The team tends to have the higher ground with RFA's but then again, you only have so many twenty year old 100 goal scorers in the game so who knows, maybe there's either hope or some kind of leverage, if not a bit of both. Fingers crossed!

 

[Peggy]

I don't think UFA and RFA matters much in this day n age. Players are getting paid for what they do, and what they project to be. Laine is the best in the NHL at standing in his spot and hitting the puck. He'll get paid big for that trait.

They definitely do. Opposing teams have more influence on ufas contracts than rfa's

 

[Peggy]

Not really.
Dig into the numbers.

Fk the numbers. Watch the kid play

 

[TS Quint]

Matthews is far more valuable than Laine. Said it before and say it again Laine is a streaky one trick pony.
Relies heavily on the PP and his shot.
Give the kid credit awesome shot but that's about it.
Said he should have been drafted first overall lol.
Everyone says goals deserves the big money.
I disagree with that would rather have a complete player who battles most nights, picks up his points in all situations and plays both ends of the ice.
25 goals 18 of them in November and -15 for the year.
Matthews has been off and on this season but his numbers are so much better than Laine.
Matthews contract I was not a big fan of as the injuries to me are a concern.
What these young players are getting coming off their entry level contracts is crazy.
Unfortunately tough for teams like the Leafs and Jets to try and keep most of the team together.
Think Matthews and Nylander were overpaid.
We'll see what the Jets do.

I agree. I wish people would stop comparing contracts to what Dubas did to his team as well.

 

[TS Quint]

Connor stays for sure. Hopefully with a contract similar to Ehlers.

Trouba is likely traded at the draft. Hopefully for a good return - a 1st rounder and a top prospect.

Laine probably/almost for sure, stays. A bridge deal is preferred. I would entertain deals at the draft. This would be a blockbuster. Despite al the criticism of Laine's play he has a skill set that is very rare. Goal scorers are premium. I think the Jets are fortunate that they may get even better by trading him. They have goal scorers already
**ideally he figures out whatever is ailing him and screwing with his game (mentally? physically?) and commits to a better off season regime and comes back in 2019/20 season ready to re-establish himself as the heir apparent to Ovi as the best goal scorer in the game.

I'm just sayin, I hate the comparison to Ovi more than anything. Other than scoring from that spot they sent much alike. One of the criticisms of Ovi when he was young was that he played too hard and was too physical which might lead to injury. I'm not at all worried that Laine is playing too hard.

 

[Heldig]

I'm just sayin, I hate the comparison to Ovi more than anything. Other than scoring from that spot they sent much alike. One of the criticisms of Ovi when he was young was that he played too hard and was too physical which might lead to injury. I'm not at all worried that Laine is playing too hard.

I did not compare his game to Ovi other than as a goal scorer.

 

[DJBiffWPG]

Fk the numbers. Watch the kid play

I watch him be the benefactor of Scheifele and Wheeler.

Scores like a 4th loner away from them ‍

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

I'm a big fan of the way Conner plays. He's the guy I'd be most willing to give an 8 year contract if i were the jets