Speculation: Laine, Connor, Trouba...Who stays and at what cost?

[OVO16]

They have no place in the sport, or should have no place in the sport, as obviously they are there and for some reason coveted by some.

lmao wtf

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

They have no place in the sport, or should have no place in the sport, as obviously they are there and for some reason coveted by some.

Need more weasels in the game if you asked me. Someone to get under everyone's skin is fascinating to watch. As long as they don't injure anyone of course.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Connor isn't worth 8 for 8 if wheelers is worth 6 for 7
I would offer connor something similar
6.5-7 for 7 or 8 years

Wheeler and Connor are in totally different places in there careers. Wheelers deal is for his prime/potential decline. Connor will take him right through his prime. No agent worth their weight will accept that as a comparable in any way. The reality is that Connor is going to look at Nylander making 7 million and work his way up from there.

 

[Belzebob]

Wheeler and Connor are in totally different places in there careers. Wheelers deal is for his prime/potential decline. Connor will take him right through his prime. No agent worth their weight will accept that as a comparable in any way. The reality is that Connor is going to look at Nylander making 7 million and work his way up from there.

what is crazy about the numbers getting thrown around is people are not considering chevy as a gm.

he has already gone through the nylander situation with a player that is worth much more

a #1 rd. Jacob trouba.

chevy never blinked.

he will never be held hostage, or bend to one young player's contract demands.

no one player is above the team......no matter how good they are

 

[TheBeastCoast]

what is crazy about the numbers getting thrown around is people are not considering chevy as a gm.

he has already gone through the nylander situation with a player that is worth much more

a #1 rd. Jacob trouba.

chevy never blinked.

he will never be held hostage, or bend to one young player's contract demands.

no one player is above the team......no matter how good they are

I mean....the market for young players coming off ELC has actually changed rather dramatically even since Trouba. I mean I never said they couldn't just bridge Connor like they did Trouba but I am not exactly sure if the Trouba situation would be a win for Chevy. I am not sure why people would just assume Connor would sign for under what his recent comparables other then just blind hope?

 

[BK]

If Trouba is the odd man out, what is Chevy's ask?

As a Hawks fan I would consider offer sheeting him but we all know GMs aren't going to do that often.

 

[Belzebob]

I mean....the market for young players coming off ELC has actually changed rather dramatically even since Trouba. I mean I never said they couldn't just bridge Connor like they did Trouba but I am not exactly sure if the Trouba situation would be a win for Chevy. I am not sure why people would just assume Connor would sign for under what his recent comparables other then just blind hope?

because I do not think chevy is interested on setting any new records on long term deals.

if he was, he would of done it already.

not all players are interested in squeezing as much money as possible out of their first contract.

some are happy where they are at and will leave a bit of cash around to fill out the team.

I think ehlers signed for less than he could of gotten.

I also think players coming off elc's would gladly take a bit less on say a 5 yr contract, to have a legitimate chance at a Stanley cup and cash in on a second contract

I believe that is the type of players the jets want and have drafted

 

[kelsier]

I can admit things I said about him were shown to be incorrect such as how quickly he played and scored at the NHL level at 5v5. I just never said he played like Armia or that is who we should expect him to produce like. I constantly comapred him to Hull, Heatley or a Semin who seemed to care. No one is going to be 100% right when talking about 17 year old kids and projecting them to the NHL. That's just the nature of things.

NHL coaches are not really developmental coaches. Their primary goal is to win, and they don't dramatically change things unless they are losing. They are primarily focused on the short-term, as that is what keeps them employed. Now, a GM can and will step in if they think it is significantly damaging the team's goals or long-term plans. Since the start of 2017/18, and the current line-up set-ups the Jets are winning at a rate they haven't seen in Jets 2.0 history. The prior year, they were not a great team overall. Since they found a line-up construct which has led to their first and third lines being highly effective, they are reluctant to dramatically alter it. You see coaches do insanely frustrating things all the time, but I've never seen it as a malicious attempt to destroy a guys numbers so they can get him cheaper. Generally, that level of management will create significant resentment in the negotiations and lead to the side that feels disenfranchised playing hardball. The way Chevy runs his team, it doesn't strike me as a team that would purposefully do it. They put Scheifele in a position to get paid as a youngster (giving him significant time with Wheeler as he approached RFA), and they paid Wheeler significantly as he was approaching UFA (while putting him in a position to put up big numbers). It just doesn't strike me as a way an NHL team operates, and these decisions don't lead me to believe that it is happening here. The reasons it is happening is basically, they are winning with the current line-up construct, they have 3 out of 4 lines working (which makes them less likely to split than having 1 line working and 3 not), and finally, they probably don't want Connor to be the main scoring threat on the 2nd line because they believe Laine is more likely to accomplish it. Maybe when Ehlers's comes back, they'll trust Ehlers and Connor to run on the 2nd line and finally give Laine that LW spot with Scheifele and Wheeler. Apparently, Scheifele and Wheeler prefer to play together and given the success of that line, they are unlikely to split those 2 up.

Fair enough, I remember those days and I remember fairly well what was on the menu, who delivered the order and a punch of unhappy customers.

I agree that the primary role for an NHL coach is to win and it really doesn't matter how you do it. However they do share some of the responsibility in development, there's no way around that. There are so many things they can do wrong and impact the trajectory in a negative way, but that's not what we're discussing here so no point diving in too deep. Also like mentioned, we are discussing a particular player and particular coach here. Maurice would've had enough time to explore all the options during these past few seasons, thoroughly for that matter. Yet the only time he even contemplated of giving Laine a primary role was 17-18 when Scheifele returned from the injury bay and Laine was united with Wheelers during the stretch and even then before the game he makes some odd speech how he dislikes that combination and how the pieces don't really fit together. So basically that Laine - Scheifele - Wheelers wouldn't work (someone can tell this without even really trying)? Ha c'mon, does this man have some kind of prescient powers at disposal or what? Yeah it might take a few games to adjust like lines usually do but that's about it. Anyway since Scheifele had been away for around ~two months I think, he clearly wasn't himself and didn't really keep up with the game so the line got broken after two periods and that was the end of it. The Jets were winning even without Scheifele in the line up, so if you consider that and move on to the dysfunctional second line where basically either one is expendable as far as winning goes. Now that speaks volumes about the depth. Anyway back to Maurice and his role, I never really fully joined the anti-Maurice bandwagon cause he's just being doing what he's told (no it doesn't mean I think he's a good coach). That does include how he handles Laine. I had a lot of respect for Chevy to create such a core (Jets 2.0) but considering the stakes he plays the ball and the recent contracts between Wheelers and Little (somewhere north 13m+ I believe) for two aged players, that's where I started questioning some of his choises. And he hurried with both of these contracts I think, signing and ensuring both players 1 year forehand. With Little it's already is hitting right back at his face and who knows how many more seasons Wheelers has in the bank.

You're going through those options in your head with Laine up and Connor down, but that's nothing that any average Jets fan wouldn't have been doing dating back to early 17-18. Maybe Connor and Little have more chemistry and could provide a bigger threat (after all how much worse can it get). The thing is we don't know and we're not about to find out and why? That's the part I've explained a few times already. As far as Scheifele and Laine go, I believe their EV stats are higher than between Scheifele and Wheelers. So if they were using the statistics in line formation with completely objective point of view and no worry about the cap hit, we would be looking at a whole different roster.

Anyway, you cannot provide the answers to all the "anomalies" I pointed out in regards to Laine's utilization (if not the lack of it) starting from 16-17 up until today, cause outside from $hit there really aren't any. What I see Chevy playing a high stake game where he's willing to risk alienating one of his young stars for team's best interests. It looks to be working at the moment, but it might just bite right back at him. At the end of the day I have no gain in trying to persuade you to see this. Whatever you want to believe is your business alone and it doesn't affect reality one way or the other.

 

[Heldig]

Connor stays for sure. Hopefully with a contract similar to Ehlers.

Trouba is likely traded at the draft. Hopefully for a good return - a 1st rounder and a top prospect.

Laine probably/almost for sure, stays. A bridge deal is preferred. I would entertain deals at the draft. This would be a blockbuster. Despite al the criticism of Laine's play he has a skill set that is very rare. Goal scorers are premium. I think the Jets are fortunate that they may get even better by trading him. They have goal scorers already
**ideally he figures out whatever is ailing him and screwing with his game (mentally? physically?) and commits to a better off season regime and comes back in 2019/20 season ready to re-establish himself as the heir apparent to Ovi as the best goal scorer in the game.

 

[Belzebob]

If Trouba is the odd man out, what is Chevy's ask?

As a Hawks fan I would consider offer sheeting him but we all know GMs aren't going to do that often.

all anyone knows so far is that trouba has wanted to get back to the states over family issues.

because of his home and girlfriend situation most assume that is florida, maybe Detroit.

if it is really that tight on his preferred destination and willingness to sign long term for that team...…

each team would have a different set of assests that would be available

 

[TheBeastCoast]

because I do not think chevy is interested on setting any new records on long term deals.

if he was, he would of done it already.

not all players are interested in squeezing as much money as possible out of their first contract.

some are happy where they are at and will leave a bit of cash around to fill out the team.

I think ehlers signed for less than he could of gotten.

I also think players coming off elc's would gladly take a bit less on say a 5 yr contract, to have a legitimate chance at a Stanley cup and cash in on a second contract

I believe that is the type of players the jets want and have drafted

I mean it is great for you to think that as a fan of the team. That doesn't mean it is going to happen. I hope Marner signs for 8 million....but that probably isn't going to happen. There are fans in for a pretty rude awakening this off season. If you think Connor making 8 million is setting a record you are sorely mistaken. He has direct comparables in that salary range.

 

[BK]

all anyone knows so far is that trouba has wanted to get back to the states over family issues.

because of his home and girlfriend situation most assume that is florida, maybe Detroit.

if it is really that tight on his preferred destination and willingness to sign long term for that team...…

each team would have a different set of assests that would be available

So for the Hawks what would your cost be?

Beaudin (1st round pick last year), Dahlstrom, and a 2020 1st?

 

[Belzebob]

So for the Hawks what would your cost be?

Beaudin (1st round pick last year), Dahlstrom, and a 2020 1st?

what I would want or what you may give is not really the point.

would Chicago give that up for trouba if he was not willing to sign an extension and was only around 1 year?

 

[Belzebob]

I mean it is great for you to think that as a fan of the team. That doesn't mean it is going to happen. I hope Marner signs for 8 million....but that probably isn't going to happen. There are fans in for a pretty rude awakening this off season. If you think Connor making 8 million is setting a record you are sorely mistaken. He has direct comparables in that salary range.

well the difference is dubas folded and pretty much gave 2 young players what they wanted and marner has been watching it play out.

young players coming of elc's know that chevy will play hardball with them

 

[BK]

what I would want or what you may give is not really the point.

would Chicago give that up for trouba if he was not willing to sign an extension and was only around 1 year?

No Chicago would be giving that up for a resigned Trouba.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

well the difference is dubas folded and pretty much gave 2 young players what they wanted and marner has been watching it play out.

young players coming of elc's know that chevy will play hardball with them

Like I said a rude awakening lol not much point to this anyways your going to think how you want.

 

[Belzebob]

Like I said a rude awakening lol not much point to this anyways your going to think how you want.

as are you

 

[93LEAFS]

Fair enough, I remember those days and I remember fairly well what was on the menu, who delivered the order and a punch of unhappy customers.

I agree that the primary role for an NHL coach is to win and it really doesn't matter how you do it. However they do share some of the responsibility in development, there's no way around that. There are so many things they can do wrong and impact the trajectory in a negative way, but that's not what we're discussing here so no point diving in too deep. Also like mentioned, we are discussing a particular player and particular coach here. Maurice would've had enough time to explore all the options during these past few seasons, thoroughly for that matter. Yet the only time he even contemplated of giving Laine a primary role was 17-18 when Scheifele returned from the injury bay and Laine was united with Wheelers during the stretch and even then before the game he makes some odd speech how he dislikes that combination and how the pieces don't really fit together. So basically that Laine - Scheifele - Wheelers wouldn't work (someone can tell this without even really trying)? Ha c'mon, does this man have some kind of prescient powers at disposal or what? Yeah it might take a few games to adjust like lines usually do but that's about it. Anyway since Scheifele had been away for around ~two months I think, he clearly wasn't himself and didn't really keep up with the game so the line got broken after two periods and that was the end of it. The Jets were winning even without Scheifele in the line up, so if you consider that and move on to the dysfunctional second line where basically either one is expendable as far as winning goes. Now that speaks volumes about the depth. Anyway back to Maurice and his role, I never really fully joined the anti-Maurice bandwagon cause he's just being doing what he's told (no it doesn't mean I think he's a good coach). That does include how he handles Laine. I had a lot of respect for Chevy to create such a core (Jets 2.0) but considering the stakes he plays the ball and the recent contracts between Wheelers and Little (somewhere north 13m+ I believe) for two aged players, that's where I started questioning some of his choises. And he hurried with both of these contracts I think, signing and ensuring both players 1 year forehand. With Little it's already is hitting right back at his face and who knows how many more seasons Wheelers has in the bank.

You're going through those options in your head with Laine up and Connor down, but that's nothing that any average Jets fan wouldn't have been doing dating back to early 17-18. Maybe Connor and Little have more chemistry and could provide a bigger threat (after all how much worse can it get). The thing is we don't know and we're not about to find out and why? That's the part I've explained a few times already. As far as Scheifele and Laine go, I believe their EV stats are higher than between Scheifele and Wheelers. So if they were using the statistics in line formation with completely objective point of view and no worry about the cap hit, we would be looking at a whole different roster.

Anyway, you cannot provide the answers to all the "anomalies" I pointed out in regards to Laine's utilization (if not the lack of it) starting from 16-17 up until today, cause outside from $hit there really aren't any. What I see Chevy playing a high stake game where he's willing to risk alienating one of his young stars for team's best interests. It looks to be working at the moment, but it might just bite right back at him. At the end of the day I have no gain in trying to persuade you to see this. Whatever you want to believe is your business alone and it doesn't affect reality one way or the other.

It depends on what statistics you valued. The Jets success with Scheifele and Wheeler on the ice is much more sustainable, and they dictate possession. The likelihood of Laine's line continually shooting over 15% as a unit is minuscule. That just doesn't happen. If you give most people who are into hockey analytic's this question, which line would they keep, who do you think they'd answer?

Combo 1
CF%: 51.51%
GF%: 54.46
oiSH%: 8.87
Minutes played: 2253

Combo 2
CF%: 49.43%
GF%: 59.21%
oiSH%: 14.66%
Minutes Played: 658

Most people who are looking at that statistically, are going to gamble on combo 1. It has a much larger sample size, is winning the game goal differential wise (not to the extent of combo 2), but isn't as reliant on a crazy shooting percentage holding. Most risk-averse people are going to choose combo 1. It provides much more certainty and less volatility. Obviously, combo 1 is Wheeler and Scheifele togeather since the start of 2016/17, and combo 2 is Scheifele and Laine togeather during that same time period. Since the start of 2017-18, the Scheifele/Wheeler combo actually has a 56.95% GF%, a slightly higher shooting percentage (9.32%) and a slightly lower CF% (50.77). This is still over 1635 minutes.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

as are you

If you really think that it is just Leaf players that are going to see there values increased coming out of ELC then there really is no point to talking about this anymore honestly. You enjoy that dream of yours.

 

[Belzebob]

No Chicago would be giving that up for a resigned Trouba.

there are a couple of things you should consider in relation to trouba.

the jets will take 1 last chance at the end of the year to get him resigned. if he again opts for arbitration he will be traded.

he has worked his way to this, by risking career ending injury and passing up millions in guaranteed salary, to get to this point

he still has the influence because if it has been all about florida, he can refuse extension talks with any team Winnipeg may be interested in moving him too...….

thus effecting any return

but without an incredible change in trouba's desires that last game he plays this season will be his last as a jet.

gm's may even wonder about bringing character like that into a young room

 

[Belzebob]

If you really think that it is just Leaf players that are going to see there values increased coming out of ELC then there really is no point to talking about this anymore honestly. You enjoy that dream of yours.

the point that you seem to ignore in your replies is that they are 2 different gm's

 

[DRW204]

So for the Hawks what would your cost be?

Beaudin (1st round pick last year), Dahlstrom, and a 2020 1st?

Jokiharju

 

[TheBeastCoast]

the point that you seem to ignore in your replies is that they are 2 different gm's

I'm not.

 

[BK]

Jokiharju

That would hurt. I don't think the Hawks would go for that but I think Beaudin is nothing to be ignored.

 

[DRW204]

That would hurt. I don't think the Hawks would go for that but I think Beaudin is nothing to be ignored.

and having to face Trouba within the division in Chicago would hurt too lol. You guys are stacked with D prospects btw