Speculation: Laine, Connor, Trouba...Who stays and at what cost?

[GBLeaf]

I imagine we trade Trouba after the season, or maybe even the deadline if it brings us a star defenseman. He'd just be the big part of that deal.

Laine right now would get $6M AAV at the very least, but I'd do it because right now it'd be a steal.
Connor would get as little as $6M AAV as well.

Think both are do-able.

I think you might be a little disappointed if you're thinking 6m each

 

[Channelcat]

Losing Trouba would be the biggest hit. He's been outstanding, and keeps getting better. If I'm Chevy, he goes back to being my #1 priority.

 

[Bristo]

You do realize the Leafs stretch beyond Canada....we're not small potatoes.

You do realize that you are implying that the majority of Leafs fans reside outside of Canada's borders, right? Stop deluding yourself.

 

[34]

After this season Toronto has 3 players making well over what Laine will make. Jets are trying to find ways to keep Perrault, Tanev and Broissoit not trying to fight off offer sheets. Not even close to the same.

Those 3 players are also much better than Laine, so yes they cost more.

 

[PhilJets]

Man Laine has had a really rough year.
I know suggesting that him @8M would be as bad as Lucic's contract is an exageration, but it could still potentially be a horrible horrible contract.
Just look at how many games Laine has played on the 3rd and 4th lines this year.
He needs to learn to play hockey again.

Laine has not played in the 3rd or 4th line.

He has been stapled to Little all year except for 1 period.
The 2nd line gets 14 to17 minutes a game most nights.
The 1st line 20 to 24 mins a game most nights

He had a rough stretch now but not the whole year. Check November nhl player of the month.


Fyi

 

[PhilJets]

Laines goal stats are as irrelevant as could possibly be.

Its the most relevant stats and total points you have for negotiating contracts.

 

[Maukkis]

I am not missing this and it is factored in in the lesser cap hit Jets would have, i.e. $4.1m instead of $7m for a resigned Trouba.

It is not factored in the return we are getting. There needs to be an incentive added.

Problem is, you don't have much that you can part ways with, and the rest is pretty much worthless for us.

 

[Dr Danglefest]

Trouba 1 year 6m
Laine 6 years 8m
Connor 7 years 7m

I don’t see any of these guys signing long term and thats more for themselves than it is for the team

I can see:
Trouba 2 years 6.33
Laine 4 years 8m
Connor 5 years 6.75

Guys like Laine and Connor know that if they put in a few more years of high quality production and a rising cap they can both find themselves with an AAV above 10 (for example Connor “loses 14 mil over those last two years but gains back 20 if he hits 10 mil per which is a net gain of 6 mil.

As for Trouba I can see a 2 year deal so they can increase his trade value as not being a pending FA right away

 

[Halla]

Trouba will be traded this offseason, hopefully for a young RHD. Outside chance Jets re-sign him if they give him his $7-8 million AAV request.

I'd give Connor a long-term contract at $7 million x 8 years.

I'd bridge Laine at 2 or 3 years x $6-7 million per season.

pretty light on both deals. just using recent leafs as comparables, connor will get less of the cap than nylander and Laine will get just over half of Matthews cap%. Connor at 8-8.5 if he is doing 8 years imho

pretty sure Laine is gonna look at what kucherov got (9.5) and what marner gets (10?) and want that.
I think this kid is ripe for a 10mil offersheet....do the jets match or take the pair of 1sts,2nd and a 3rd?

 

[Halla]

I don’t see any of these guys signing long term and thats more for themselves than it is for the team

I can see:
Trouba 2 years 6.33
Laine 4 years 8m
Connor 5 years 6.75

Guys like Laine and Connor know that if they put in a few more years of high quality production and a rising cap they can both find themselves with an AAV above 10 (for example Connor “loses 14 mil over those last two years but gains back 20 if he hits 10 mil per which is a net gain of 6 mil.

As for Trouba I can see a 2 year deal so they can increase his trade value as not being a pending FA right away

Trouba - he could just accept his 6mil QO and walk to UFA
Laine - you really wanna let this kid go right to UFA with a 4 year deal
Connor - not a chance is he getting less than 7. 30+g/65+pts this year guarantees he gets at least what nylander got, and then his agent argues the cap went up 5.5 mil and with that % bump gets him to 7.5

 

[Menzinger]

I’d LOVE to hear the justification as to why Trouba accepts a 1 year deal at just 6ish million beyond mere wishful thinking

The Jets have lowballed him two contract negotiations in a row. He’s going to look to get PAID this time around, at least 8 million regardless of term....

 

[Trinity]

If it matters, Friedman on his podcast this week dropped a nugget that the "jets hate bonuses"

That's been well known for a while now, and it comes from ownership. I suspect bonuses like the ones in Matthews contract will be addressed in the next CBA.

 

[Trinity]

As I sated in my earlier post, I agree that Trouba will be graded this offseason. For those of you who agree that the Jets will be seeking a young d-man to replace Trouba, who do you think is available in a trade, that would make sense for both the Jets at the other team?

 

[thadd]

Its the most relevant stats and total points you have for negotiating contracts.

That's my point. He's on pace to have a much worse year this season.

 

[WHISTLERNATE]

I don't want to derail this thread in any way, but would everyone expect that Connor and Boeser come out of this summer with pretty similar deals? I feel they are pretty good comparables.

 

[Flair Hay]

36 goals. 44 goals. Now on pace for 38.

He's essentially a 40 goal scorer at 20, I don't see why he would not command 40 goal scorer money. With cap increases that's something like 8*10.

I guess he could take a bridge, why would he?

Because more than just counting stats are being used these days on both sides. The reality is Laine is a bottom 10 all around player in the league who is about a 40 goal scorer on average.

Pretty sure 2 years 5.5 million would be the most expensive bridge deal in history. But it would still save us 3 million on his cap hit from an 8 year deal. It would likely let us keep Perreault 2 more years...

 

[Grimmas]

Because more than just counting stats are being used these days on both sides. The reality is Laine is a bottom 10 all around player in the league who is about a 40 goal scorer on average.

Pretty sure 2 years 5.5 million would be the most expensive bridge deal in history. But it would still save us 3 million on his cap hit from an 8 year deal. It would likely let us keep Perreault 2 more years...

So a few months back everybody was just delusional about how good Laine was?

 

[Divine]

I mainly meant that it's a stiff price for the other team to pay to get a pesky year of Trouba the pending UFA, especially as the 1-year contract would have to be big enough (bigger than the projected salary arbitration award) to get him to sign the offer sheet.

If Trouba elects to go to Arbitration this summer, the Jets won't even have the option to choose 1 or 2 years, as he's on his 6th year now and will be UFA after the next season. It would need to be an enticing 1 year contract.

The point isn't you're going to break the bank with Trouba. It's if a team offer sheets Trouba, let's say even @ 1 year/6M. The matching team cannot trade Trouba for a year. Therefore, if he doesn't want to re-sign, or they can't re-sign him, by matching it they're risking losing him for nothing versus a 1st and 3rd. That's where the offer sheet really impacts Winnipeg's future with Trouba.

Secondly, people are arguing that's a 'stiff price' for 1 year of Trouba. Is it? Muzzin went for a 1st and 2 decent prospects. Rentals go for more than that, so that's actually cheaper than the TDL price for him.

 

[Flair Hay]

So a few months back everybody was just delusional about how good Laine was?

I think he is still young so it's hard because of the ups and downs young guys have. Especially a goal scorer that will naturally be streaky.

He hasn't found that way to simplify his game to translate to the NHL level good enough yet. When he does, more points and better possession stats will follow.

It took Wheeler til post Noel, Ovechkin til Trotz, etc. To do it. People have to realize it may be a while even if we do everything we can.

 

[Whileee]

If Trouba is willing to stay, the Jets could do this...

Trouba at $8M.
Connor at $6.5M.
Laine at $9.5M.

Trade Perreault. Let Myers walk as a UFA.

If they move Kulikov for a younger / cheaper D, they would have a bit more cap space.

 

[Whileee]

That's too dangerous. Laine has been so brutal this year. That could potentially turn into a worse contract that Lucic's.

Well, that might be true if Lucic was a 40 goal scorer and 20 years old, instead of a 30 year old 8 goal scorer.

 

[Slickvick]

Remember when Jets fans said they were happy getting laine instead of AM

 

[Coach Parker]

Trouba 1 year 6m
Laine 6 years 8m
Connor 7 years 7m

Connor is the only one here that has a chance of happening. The new NHL pays for age and regular season stats and potential over accomplishments.

 

[Flair Hay]

No. Clearly that is a low ball offer for a top pairing shut down RHD with skill and toughness. That is a rare commodity in the NHL.

I do think that we as Jets fans need to consider that teams will know we are on track to lose him for nothing if we dont trade him by the draft this year. That hurts his value a lot. Look what Karlsson went for, and he is another level of player.

 

[Coach Parker]

You guys are nuts if you think Connor is worth anything above 6.5

Personally I hope the Jets try and grab Stone and then sign him long term then move Connor for help on D.

Would you see something around Connor and McAvoy?