Confirmed with Link: Kevin Hayes 4: Don't sell when it only costs 50 million dollars to buy in (7x7.14)

Status
Not open for further replies.

Nabrules

Registered User
Nov 5, 2018
1,521
1,535
not worrying about 2 years ago 6 years ago is what got us into the mess that everyone is supporting Fletcher "digging us out of" this year.

Cant wait to read the posts in 3 years when were complaining about having no young kids to promote because we really needed Justin Braun.

But hey, playoff hockey, right?

I agree years 6/7 of the Hayes deal probably won’t be good, but pretty realistic to think the first 5 will be good with him being 27.

As far as the dmen we aquiried go, those controls put is in not danger of cap hell. Within 2 years both contracts will be up. People tend to forget besides karlsson and trouba (Minny not trading Spurgeon) the other 2 dman most prominent rhd are Myers and Zaitsev. I’m really glad we got Niskanen and Braun comapred

Lastly, not quite sure what you mean by blocking the kids? All the kids worth having up are here. GM CF already essentially said Myers will be on the team next year.
 

Curufinwe

Registered User
Feb 28, 2013
55,772
42,824
not worrying about 2 years ago 6 years ago is what got us into the mess that everyone is supporting Fletcher "digging us out of" this year.

Cant wait to read the posts in 3 years when were complaining about having no young kids to promote because we really needed Justin Braun.

But hey, playoff hockey, right?

Trading a 2nd and a 3rd is not going to mean the Flyers have "no young kids to promote" in 3 years. What a reach. :laugh:
 

baudib1

Registered User
Apr 12, 2016
8,136
11,633
Las Vegas
There was never a need for a RHD.

Provorov-Ghost is still the best top pair (as far as a combo of talent, skill maximization and slotting out the rest of the pairs) the Flyers can ice, and it lets Sanheim play the left side.
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
21,617
Over the last year we trade:
Marody for 2019 3rd (#65)
Weal for 2019 6th (#169)
Simmonds for 2020 4th
#41 2019, 2020 3rd for Braun
5th rd 2019 for Hayes

Don't think the sum of these moves is a dramatic reduction in our talent pipeline.
Same number of picks, just moved back a few times (#41 to #65, 5th to early 6th 2019, 3rd to 4th 2020).
 

Dilderon

Registered User
Nov 29, 2018
323
232
I'd offer sheet Marner at $12.5M, and I'd be perfectly happy to give up the cap space and 4 picks or equivalent for that.

No we probably don't get Marner but you can use the threat of an OS to force Toronto into giving us a favorable deal on someone they can't afford to keep -- paying Marner and keeping all of Kapanen/Nylander/Johnsson doesn't seem possible.

Let's be honest, Chuck isn't that guy. He's not gonna be the one to make an OS or threaten one, because he wants to be nice and well-liked by his fellow GMs. No irony at all, it's clearly a goal of his and he said as much in the Athletic months back -- he wants to work deals where both sides are happy.

Barring that Panarin for 7/$77M

Barring that make an offer to Minnesota involving 11OA + for Spurgeon + Zucker.

Barring that... IDK how about seeing what develops as teams sign certain players and some teams become cap-strapped and maybe we can scoop up a Timo Meier or Seguin or someone.

Keep in mind this doesn't stop you from being a player for Hayes in any way shape or form.
Ok. I like the Spurgeon idea. Thanks man
 

Beef Invictus

Revolutionary Positivity
Dec 21, 2009
128,072
165,968
Armored Train
Briere I remember, Hartnell I don't recall and a quick Google search doesn't say anything about him refusing to waive (but if he did ok, I just can't find anything saying he did). So that's two. And there might be a couple more. And there are similarly a bunch that have waived (Simmonds, LeCavalier, Coburn, Gagne, etc.), and that is just with the Flyers. Is it possible that the NMC forces us to expose someone that we otherwise wouldn't? Of course it is. But this idea that this is somehow written in stone is ridiculous. We see them waived routinely around the league, and again, two years from now we have no idea what the team looks like. The guy you are worried about losing may have been traded, or injured, or not worth protecting. Kevin hayes may put up big numbers over the next two years. Kevin Hayes might waive his NMC before the ED to go somewhere else. He might agree to waive it for the ED. Getting mad because there is a chance that he might maybe possibly be protected when there might maybe be someone else that we would rather protect is ridiculous. If this makes you mad then every trade and signing ever should make you mad because there is always a chance that the it won't work out.

Kevin Hayes isn't going to revolutionize himself as a player and suddenly produce big numbers. Kevin Hayes will force us to protect him in the draft.

The team has yielded power to a player with an event coming where the management needs as much flexibility as they can get. But you've decided that you'll refuse to understand that.
 

landsbergfan

Registered User
Jun 20, 2018
6,760
24,095
Yup, one of things I'm really happy about is with all the moves that have been made, 11oa, the 2020 1st, Frost, Farabee, Ratcliffe and all the young D are still here.
Let's wait and see on all of that before we get excited. Offseason isn't over yet haha.

Really the only move I am truly upset over is the Braun deal. He is a fine player, but doesn't do nearly enough on the ice to make up for what it cost them in draft picks and cap space (to sign RFAs). I dislike how the Hayes deal seems to force us into 7-3-1, but there was a chance Fletcher was screwed there anyway. Length obviously sucks.

The deal puts a lot of pressure on the team to win I think. If they had lets say, used the 2nd and 3rd round picks to acquire a 2/3 C and counted on some more organic growth/rebounding from several players on the team I think it allows them to continue an upward progression. It isn't clear exactly how much better Hayes makes the team compared to whoever else they would've replaced him with, but it certainly cost a lot to do so. I expect him to be pretty good, especially in the beginning of the deal. Has to result in wins now if this affects the long term cap.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BiggE

Danko

You have no marbles
Jul 28, 2004
10,970
10,906
Kevin Hayes isn't going to revolutionize himself as a player and suddenly produce big numbers. Kevin Hayes will force us to protect him in the draft.

The team has yielded power to a player with an event coming where the management needs as much flexibility as they can get. But you've decided that you'll refuse to understand that.

Im optimistic that Hayes will match or exceed his numbers from last year playing with better linemates.
 

Deadpool8812

Registered User
Feb 10, 2018
12,738
16,210
Kevin Hayes isn't going to revolutionize himself as a player and suddenly produce big numbers. Kevin Hayes will force us to protect him in the draft.

He isn't supposed to. He was brought in to be a middle-6 forward. If he can consistently put up 50+ points and play solid two-way hockey, then he is doing what we brought him in to do. The NMC sucks, but at least it's only for the first 3 seasons.

We needed center depth, and we got it by using money only.
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
21,617
Hayes doesn't need to produce big numbers, the top offensive teams all exited early from the playoffs.

What Hayes has to do is to continue to incrementally improve and give us a solid two way 2C for the next couple years before moving to RW and becoming a goal scoring two way forward. This is a guy with a career 12.9% S% (surprised me when I saw that!), so he should be able to score goals if given the opportunity.

To me, anything over 40 ES points is gravy, especially if he can help the PK as well as play plus defense.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: achdumeingute

sa cyred

Running Data Models
Sep 11, 2007
20,847
3,134
SJ
Kevin Hayes isn't going to revolutionize himself as a player and suddenly produce big numbers. Kevin Hayes will force us to protect him in the draft.

The team has yielded power to a player with an event coming where the management needs as much flexibility as they can get. But you've decided that you'll refuse to understand that.
I dont think he will revolutionize, but he definitely will play with better players. Usually playing with better players = producing more. Usually
 

DrinkFightFlyers

THE TORTURE NEVER STOPS
Sponsor
Sep 24, 2009
23,517
4,493
NJ
Kevin Hayes isn't going to revolutionize himself as a player and suddenly produce big numbers. Kevin Hayes will force us to protect him in the draft.

The team has yielded power to a player with an event coming where the management needs as much flexibility as they can get. But you've decided that you'll refuse to understand that.
:laugh::laugh::laugh:

Ok you are right. Hayes isn't worth protecting and there is no chance he will be in the next two years, and we will lose a big asset and this is terrible no matter what and a terrible move and even if it doesn't have a negative impact it is still a bad move because there is a chance it might not work out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: achdumeingute

Tripod

I hate this team
Aug 12, 2008
78,851
86,220
Nova Scotia
Sure, hold him accountable. Cut down on his ham sandwich allowance. There was never a realistic scenario in which Patrick wasn't a key part of this team this season and presumably, for many seasons to come, so really, I'm more concerned about Frost not having a spot to play. This cap space that went to Hayes would have been more efficiently spent on improving other parts of the team, for instance, adding a Spurgeon instead of Braun or Niskanen, or adding a winger who can help Patrick.

Let us not forget that Patrick was playing fine until Haktard split up him and Lindblom. And yes Patrick's slump went even longer than Lindblom's but he looked downright dominant half the time over the second half of the year.

Channeling inner Striker ... we saw Couturier misused by Berube in his second season. It didn't mean that Couturier was terrible or couldn't/wouldn't improve.
As of today, Frost has a spot to play. We have an open top 9 slot not filled.

As you know, I was all for Spurgeon. But that cost is #11 in a hypothetical world...because in the real world, Fenton has said he wants to re-sign him.

Add a winger???? Well...Hayes CAN play wing if both Frost and Patrick show they are dominant. At ES we had:

3 LW produce at top 6 level or above
3 RW produce at top 6 level or above
1 C produce at top 6 level or above

There is 100% a REASON we added a C. And he isn't just a 50 point C with only offense. Good defensively. Good on the PK. Hell a threat to add scoring to our PK...as I said before....he has more SH points the last 3 years than the entire Flyers team had goals SH.

Patrick was not misused though. He had Voracek as his RW winger most of the year. Hell, he had Giroux as his RW for a stretch too. Patrick HAS looked dominant...at times. We need him to be that year round. Not just a 10 game stretch. As a rookie, he paced at a 53 point pace over a 30 game stretch to end the year. He needed to build on that this past year, and failed to do it. No injury excuses in the offseason to deal with. He came to camp...and myself and others...including Ghosts Beer...said how he looked bad in pre-season. Well that carried over to the actual season.

11 points in the first 37 games up to Jan 13th....24 point pace
19 points in the next 25 games....62 point pace
1 point in his last 9 games to end the year...9 point pace

So....what Patrick are we getting next year? We all want the dominant one that paced for 62 points, but then he once again fell on his face. We all WANT that guy. Most believe he can and WILL be that guy at some point. But you also can't blame people for not being confident that "that guy" is arriving this coming year. Especially when he has not done much either year to start the season:

Year 1: 9 points in 40 games to start the year
Year 2: 11 points in 37 games to start the year

That's an ALARMING thing to look at....20 points in 77 games...a 21 point pace....for your #2C playing with skilled guys. His hernia surgery explained year one. Nothing explains year 2.

Maybe if our top 3 scorers were younger, we could afford to wait. But if you wait and it takes a few more years, all you are doing is replacing what we have now....and not even that because no one we have is expected to post Giroux like numbers. So now we have Hayes, who is already what we expect 90% of Patrick to be in his prime. And if Patrick doesn't make that big jump up this year, we are ok.....except then you have to question what he is because then it will be 3 years of sample size. And if he does rise up, then we are in a great situation.

I honestly think taking the pressure off him, and having him get easier matchups, that he can have a great year. He has no excuse not to.

And as a side note, I need to get some freakin work done today...lol. Later.
 
  • Like
Reactions: achdumeingute

baudib1

Registered User
Apr 12, 2016
8,136
11,633
Las Vegas
Look, stop using "Hayes can move to wing" as justification for anything. If Hayes were a winger he's a $5.5M AAV guy.

Second, nothing is an alarming trend about a 20-year-old player who has only played for Hakstol and Gordon.

Third, any argument/concern about Patrick can be applied to Hart as well, who plays a more important position. If Hart is merely average next year, should we go pay $6M for a 1A goalie? Hey, if Hart's good, having two good goalies is a great problem to have!

Fourth, as been pointed out, Patrick's TOI and role doesn't really change even with Hayes. We still need him to produce.The amount of "protection" and matchup advantage this gives is really overrated. There's a limit to how much you can dictate matchups, and the differences between your 2nd line matchups and 3rd line matchups aren't huge.

Lastly, as I said, my concerns are mostly about Frost. We're a better team in 2021 and arguably 2019-20 if Frost starts in the NHL this year. He's done everything humanly possible to prove he deserves to be in the NHL.
 

landsbergfan

Registered User
Jun 20, 2018
6,760
24,095
Im optimistic that Hayes will match or exceed his numbers from last year playing with better linemates.
I think exceeding his numbers only happens if he gets on the top PP usage. He is good for 40 ES points though, which is great and will certainly be an improvement over Phil Varone lol
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
21,617
JVR gets $7M, 24-26 averaged 39 ES points (17 PP points)
Voracek gets $8.25M, 24-26 averaged 40 ES points (26 PP points)
Hayes gets $7M, 24-26 averaged 37 ES points (9 PP points)

Hayes is the best defender by a sizeable margin.
His PK skills balances their edge on the PP.
So his AVV isn't out of line at RW.
 

baudib1

Registered User
Apr 12, 2016
8,136
11,633
Las Vegas
LOL I'm actually imagining what would have happened if Hart had been kept in the AHL all year.Would we be bidding on Bob?
 

hatcher

Registered User
Sep 30, 2007
12,377
4,085
Kelowna BC
Great job by Fletcher getting what we needed and now getting these piss poor indivinduals to play like a team. Goodluck AV.
 

baudib1

Registered User
Apr 12, 2016
8,136
11,633
Las Vegas
JVR gets $7M, 24-26 averaged 39 ES points (17 PP points)
Voracek gets $8.25M, 24-26 averaged 40 ES points (26 PP points)
Hayes gets $7M, 24-26 averaged 37 ES points (9 PP points)

Hayes is the best defender by a sizeable margin.
His PK skills balances their edge on the PP.
So his AVV isn't out of line at RW.

His defense isn't as valuable at LW.

Perron was coming off a 66-point season and signed for $4M last year.
Silfverberg just signed for $5.3M
some other contracts

Hall $6M
Forsberg $6M
Palmieri $4.6M
Hoffman $5.2M
Gourde $5.2M
Wilson $5.2M
Atkinson $5.8M
Huberdeau $5.9M
Landeskog $5.6M
Schwartz $5.3M

Hayes as a winger is middle of the pack here, at best.
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
21,617
Comparing RFA salaries to UFA salaries is silly.
And the ability to play center, even when a player is moved to wing, has additional value because it provides depth.

Ask Mark Stone if defense isn't valued at wing. His 47 ES (15 PP) the last three years wouldn't justify his salary without defense. 8yr/$9.5M.
 

Captain Dave Poulin

Imaginary Cat
Apr 30, 2015
68,269
200,364
Tokyo, JP
Here's what we could do. Go to Kevin, ask him if it's true that he was considering Chicago and Arizona, and if the idea of those places would still be attractive to him. Then if he agrees, we go to Chicago and Arizona and offer them Hayes, Hartman, Raffl and Ginning and take the offer which most closely approximates the value of a 2nd and 5th this year and a 3rd next year. Then we buy out Braun and Niskanen, take our medicine this season, then BOOM - we will be good to go. Oh, I forgot to mention that we fire Fletch, Blech Blah, Homer and David Scott first and replace them with howler monkeys. BOOM. Winning.
 

Petr Svoboda Mullet

Registered User
Apr 3, 2016
1,273
1,360
His defense isn't as valuable at LW.

Perron was coming off a 66-point season and signed for $4M last year.
Silfverberg just signed for $5.3M
some other contracts

Hall $6M
Forsberg $6M
Palmieri $4.6M
Hoffman $5.2M
Gourde $5.2M
Wilson $5.2M
Atkinson $5.8M
Huberdeau $5.9M
Landeskog $5.6M
Schwartz $5.3M

Hayes as a winger is middle of the pack here, at best.

Good thing he’s playing center....:laugh:
 

baudib1

Registered User
Apr 12, 2016
8,136
11,633
Las Vegas
Comparing RFA salaries to UFA salaries is silly.
And the ability to play center, even when a player is moved to wing, has additional value because it provides depth.

Ask Mark Stone if defense isn't valued at wing. His 47 ES (15 PP) the last three years wouldn't justify his salary without defense. 8yr/$9.5M.

Mark Stone is a unicorn -- a Selke-worthy winger -- AND a great offensive player.The dude has dominated the league in takeaways at a Ruthian level for years. Comparing Hayes to Mark Stone is like comparing Nolan Patrick to John Tavares.

JVR is getting $7M because he took less term than he wanted. None of these comparisons are apples to apples, but those are the wingers who are, as a group,probably better players overall than Hayes, roughly the same age and getting paid less.

I mean if you want to argue that there's not a premium price for centers, well you've argued worse actually ....
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad