hatcher
Registered User
Fa's call all shots because other teams wanted him. JVR wanted to play with his old team and took less to do so and Hexy just had to offer money and no nmc to get it done.
Confirmed with Link: Kevin Hayes 4: Don't sell when it only costs 50 million dollars to buy in (7x7.14)
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Tripod
I hate this team
Once again....you can't compare $ for $ for contract signed in different year. You need to compare cap%. Then you are comparing RFA to UFA....again...a no no. Here are his cap% comparables once again:
Shattenkirk 8.9% 28 points
Carter 8.9% 33 points
Pastrnak 8.9% obviously a steal 81 points
Zajac 8.9% 46 points
Callahan 9% 17 points
Hayes 9% 54 points
Stepan 9.1 % 35 points
Brown 9.1% 51 points
And again, no cherry picking. That is all the guys listed within .1 of Hayes.
uggh. If any player suffers any injury and is out...it's the same exact scenario. We are out the investment. It's a risk. Its ALL a risk.
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. The opportunity cost of having Hayes and preventing us from better players is all speculation. If we have an opportunity down the road to get a better player...best believe we will...and then trade some guys to make it work.
We can protect Patrick or Konecny NO Problem. We might not be able to PAY for them if they break out...but likely Jake will be the casualty then, and we will keep the younger guy.
In regards to the ED comment...it is a strategy that worked last time...I have to believe that GMs will talk....and work things out weeks in advance "unofficially". If SEA plays hardball...we trade the 4th Dman for high picks to someone else...and Seattle gets JVR and nothing extra. If we keep our Dman ..they get 2 prospects and JVR (in my proposal)....seems smarter to work with us...
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hatcher
Registered User
We could all be dead too by then so lets enjoy were gonna have a better TEAM to watch from here on in.
deadhead
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- Feb 26, 2014
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The other problem is that the UFA market has become thinner over the years as players either re-sign, or are traded at the TDL in their walk year to a team that can offer 8 years (Stone).
This year is a good example, Duchene, Panarin and Bob are all "wired," EK resigned with San Jose, Trouba pretty much dictated a trade to NY. Hayes will probably be the last big FA we sign over the next five years.
We overpaid for Hayes, but you pretty much overpay for any FA, including your own.
7x7 for Hayes v 6x6 for Nelson?
Skinner? averaged 45 ES, 13 PP, but LW, no PK, below average defense.
Which is why the Flyers should avoid FA in the future, trade some players before they have to pay big bucks (Ghost at 30), and keep the cheap talent coming.
This year is a good example, Duchene, Panarin and Bob are all "wired," EK resigned with San Jose, Trouba pretty much dictated a trade to NY. Hayes will probably be the last big FA we sign over the next five years.
We overpaid for Hayes, but you pretty much overpay for any FA, including your own.
7x7 for Hayes v 6x6 for Nelson?
Skinner? averaged 45 ES, 13 PP, but LW, no PK, below average defense.
Which is why the Flyers should avoid FA in the future, trade some players before they have to pay big bucks (Ghost at 30), and keep the cheap talent coming.
agree. There is no competitive advantage in UFA anymore. We can't give more $$ than other teams. The trade and sign before UFA is the way now. Few good players end up as true UFA.
hatcher
Registered User
Hayes was getting a nmc no matter where he goes. All will ask that are up this year so they dont get moved to Seattle.
It's not a strawman, it is what you are saying. You literally say it right here in this post (see bolded). I am sorry but it is ludicrous to sit here and say that this is a bad move because we are going to have to expose someone that is better than Kevin Hayes. It is absolutely possible...just like it is possible that we won't. You can't complain about a move because there is a chance something bad will happen. There is ALWAYS a chance that something bad will happen. Player X might not hold up. Player Y might not be the best option. Player Z might get injured. This isn't like they signed a guy on the brink of retirement who sucks and gave him a NMC. If that were the case...then ok I can see your point. But this is a guy in his prime who should at least be pushing 20-20 every year.
Who exactly are you afraid of losing or exposing because of Kevin Hayes that you are so certain will A) still be here in two years; B) will be better than Kevin hayes; and C) would absolutely get chosen in the ED? And why are you so certain he won't waive his NMC? Because he asked for it? Do you think that he is the first guy to ask for a NMC who will be asked to waive it? You think if he sucks the next two years and hates it he won't waive it? It seems that you are focusing only on the absolute worst case scenario and pretending like because a worst case scenario exists that this is a bad move.
Do you disagree with the premise that centers get paid a premium over a similar-scoring wingers? Or that Hayes' value becomes diminished if he's a winger? We are talking about him possibly moving to wing as soon as next year here, the 2nd year of a 7-year contract.
Ultimately the issue isn't about what Hayes makes compared to people signed 3-4 years ago. It's about what he makes compared to what people will be signing for 3-4-5-6-7 years from now.
When players like Crosby or Giroux or Bergeron or Kane sign their contracts, teams are generally buying out a year or two of UFA time and make them (among) the very highest paid players in the game. But these deals work out to be bargains in the long run because they're still great players 7 years later.
This is how the aging curve works in hockey. There are exceptions, but the best players age better than other players. This has basically always been true, going back to Gordie Howe at least. The main reason is probably hockey IQ, which doesn't diminish. But it's also usually because they have a certain skill that doesn't diminish with age, or that it's so far in the stratosphere that if they lose a bit they're still better than 99% of the hockey world. Think of Jaromir Jagr protecting the puck, Sid Crosby stick-handling and passing/shooting off his backhand, or Chara boxing people out and his incredible reach.
Hayes doesn't have that. He's big, and that won't go away, but his skills are basically a little above average in a lot of areas.
The second-tier free agents don't age as well. We know they don't, there's insurmountable evidence. These players,while making a bit less than the top stars, tend to be overpriced by the middle of their contracts, if not total albatrosses. Like half the league has a guy like this: Lucic, Okposo, Eriksson, Callahan, Backes, etc.
I mean I know you know these things, because you used to argue against signings like this.
deadhead
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Hayes is 27 in the first year of a 7 year deal, 32 is the age where I'm wary of 2nd tier players, 34 for 1st tier.
5x7 like JVR (but JVR was 29) would have been ideal.
But the last two years are age 32-33, so even if Hayes is a 25-30 point solid veteran at that point, that's worth $3-4M (and his salary declines to $5M so he's movable). Think Bozak at 32 getting 3x5.
I'd be far more worried about extending Ghost in 4 years at age 30, given his frame, his injury history and the dependence of his performance on being 100%. Which is why I think they're not worried about the ED, they were already planning 7-3-1, and will either expose Ghost or trade him before then (but not this summer, that would surprise me).
5x7 like JVR (but JVR was 29) would have been ideal.
But the last two years are age 32-33, so even if Hayes is a 25-30 point solid veteran at that point, that's worth $3-4M (and his salary declines to $5M so he's movable). Think Bozak at 32 getting 3x5.
I'd be far more worried about extending Ghost in 4 years at age 30, given his frame, his injury history and the dependence of his performance on being 100%. Which is why I think they're not worried about the ED, they were already planning 7-3-1, and will either expose Ghost or trade him before then (but not this summer, that would surprise me).
TheKingPin
Registered User
Agreed. You want a center than you need to give the NMC. Duchene will get one I’m
Sure. Or you trade ghost for kadri and maybe lose him in 2 years. Ghost for two years of kadri, no.
Frost would have to be point level in 2 years to make this deal a pass. I think it’s. Good move and a necessary evil paying up like we did. Having Hayes dramatically changes our set up. You are talking about a real chance of coming out of the metro and facing a banged up Atlantic team.
Captain Dave Poulin
Imaginary Cat
Yeah so the age that Braun and Niskanen are at?
I'm less worried about first tier players at 34. I mean sometimes they just go until they're 42. There's a much higher percentage of them (Messier, Jagr,Chelios, Chara, etc.) than the Matt Cullens.
Branko
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People just aren't understanding this. Of course Free Agents are going to want NMC/NTCs to protect them from having to move across country to Seattle in 2 years. The NMC was probably a deal breaker for Hayes' agent and any other free agents this year. Do posters here really think hockey agents aren't aware there is going to be an expansion draft in the next couple of years?
This board is going to fall apart in November when this team is finally playing competitive hockey. There just won't be anything to complain about.
hatcher
Registered User
Player and agents get what they want most times. There a number and take it or leave it an Hayes wanted a nmc or he would have left.
BiggE
SELL THE DAMN TEAM
Tripod
I hate this team
People talk that wingers don't get paid as much, but often they do. 2017/18....top 6 highest paid...3 were wingers. Centers seem to get paid more, because often the centers are better.
As for Hayes, he is a C 1st. He is being paid to be our C. Like it or not, it might cost us Frost or Patrick in a few years....maybe to trade for a Dman after expansion. Or maybe Hayes does slide to wing. Or maybe Frost busts. Or maybe Patrick remain a #3C. Or maybe Frost becomes an elite scoring winger. We simply don't know how it will play out because there are too many unresolved variables.
100% agreed on the age thing. Looking at Hayes contract, you can see the last 2 years REAL MONEY is dropped. He will be owed 4.625 million per after the bonus is paid. So is that tradable? As long as he hasn't turned to garbage, yes.
I have said, I don't like paying for the 30+ years of guys. He is no different. The last 3 years of his deal is where this gets dicey. No one knows how he ends up. I have also said that I am viewing this as JVR won't be here for his contract. That JVR's money will slide over to Hayes instead in a year or 2.
Tripod
I hate this team
Side note:
Hockey Central today said the Flyers were "all over Kadri" as an option in case they cold not sign Hayes. No mention of price, etc... That's all that was said.
TCTC
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- Mar 25, 2013
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Yeah, wouldn't surprise me one bit if Kadri was plan B. And that probably would've cost us Ghost.
Tripod
I hate this team
Well knowing what they have as their RHD...only Zaitsev...you can bet the Leafs would be asking for Ghost, Sanheim or Myers.
Lindberg
Bennyflyers16 get a life
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Joe Sakic is a bit out of an outlier but damn was he pretty amazing late in his career.
BringBackHakstol
Registered User
The only arguments on the pro-Hayes’s signing side that holds up to scrutiny is if you accept the premise that Hayes had to be signed, and had to be signed on June 19th. But this is jumping so far out that the discussions about the move are non-productive. There’s multitude options other than painting yourself into a corner with Hayes like Fletcher decided to do.
- We don’t know at all that other teams would have been willing to make this large of a commitment to him after July 1, no matter how many people like to state this as some sort of fact. It’s not hard at all to believe that no other team offers an NMC, for example, and Fletcher walks out of this with a better contract. He lost every bit of leverage trading that pick and deciding this just had to be done on his accelerated timeline.
- Other team’s cap situations will change drastically over the next month. Patience here could easily see a decent center shaking loose to be had
- Things change dramatically in even just one year. What doesn’t change are signed in ink guaranteed deals. You put together long term winners by finding market inefficiencies and developing as much talent on cheap contracts as possible. Going into the year with a youngster at center absolutely was and should have been on the table as an option, the reward is far higher. If the player doesn’t pan out you still optionality moving forward. Committing these assets now is also a future lost opportunity cost.
Hayes isn’t some unicorn, guys like this would hit UFA or the trade block in the coming year or two for sure. Fletcher’s desperation force him to compensate Hayes like a borderline franchise player.
- We don’t know at all that other teams would have been willing to make this large of a commitment to him after July 1, no matter how many people like to state this as some sort of fact. It’s not hard at all to believe that no other team offers an NMC, for example, and Fletcher walks out of this with a better contract. He lost every bit of leverage trading that pick and deciding this just had to be done on his accelerated timeline.
- Other team’s cap situations will change drastically over the next month. Patience here could easily see a decent center shaking loose to be had
- Things change dramatically in even just one year. What doesn’t change are signed in ink guaranteed deals. You put together long term winners by finding market inefficiencies and developing as much talent on cheap contracts as possible. Going into the year with a youngster at center absolutely was and should have been on the table as an option, the reward is far higher. If the player doesn’t pan out you still optionality moving forward. Committing these assets now is also a future lost opportunity cost.
Hayes isn’t some unicorn, guys like this would hit UFA or the trade block in the coming year or two for sure. Fletcher’s desperation force him to compensate Hayes like a borderline franchise player.
This size and skill down the middle is interesting.
Coots 6 3 220
Hayes 6 5 220
Patrick 6 2 210
Coots 6 3 220
Hayes 6 5 220
Patrick 6 2 210
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