Confirmed with Link: Kevin Hayes 4: Don't sell when it only costs 50 million dollars to buy in (7x7.14)

[GKJ]

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Per reports (1st post updated): Kevin Hayes close to signing 7 years, $50M




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[Rich Nixon]

When Patrick or Frost very well may be a quality #2 center in 1-3 years, it makes no sense to may 7+ for a #3.

And you burn that bridge when you get to it. If this deal is front-loaded correctly, you can easily trade him in the scenario where one of those players emerges as a bonafide threat.

I've actually changed my mind. There will be several centers traded this summer better than Hayes and the Flyers should have give up the 11th overall pick to get one of them. My vote is for Turris or Anisimov, both way better than Hayes.

Neither of those players are better than Hayes. Both are in his range offensively but not even close defensively.

Here's something to mention: If Hayes keeps Patrick locked into the 3C spot (and producing like one) that's a good thing. I know we all get excited to see rookies thrown into the fire right away, but the RFA reckoning that's soon to come is kind of what that's earned you with Konecny/Provorov. Another year of mediocre Patrick production followed by a breakout next year is an ideal scenario if you want to pay him realistically on his next deal.

 

[Ruck Over]

So Coots is criminally underpaid, and his contract expires about half way through this Hayes deal. I wonder what's going through his head. Not that he's bitter or resentful of others getting paid, but what kind of number is he going to want? If the Flyers keep him around, he's going to be the highest paid player on the team, I'm thinking north of $9m. Maybe $9.6. There's a mental block where he stays under $10m, but Mathews got $11m, so anything is possible. (Different type of players sure, different ages, etc. etc., just that I think Coots does more towards winning hockey than Mathews. Could use Point and his suspected target range of $10m as a comparable too. And those are RFA years...)

 

[Tripod]

We have been trying to have 3 good centers since our SC run days...say 2011. We now have that.

We have been trying to ice a good 3rd line for years. We now have that.

We have been trying to ice a 4th line that is not trash. We now have that.

We have been trying to have 6 good Dmen since before Pronger. We now have that.

We have been trying to have a legit #1 goalie since Mason left. We now have that...with star upside.

We have been trying to have coaches who know what they are doing. We have that now.

Enjoy that we are no longer sitting, waiting, and hoping. And we still have all our top prospects and assets.

 

[FLYguy3911]

11 for Turris or Anisimov?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

And you burn that bridge when you get to it. If this deal is front-loaded correctly, you can easily trade him in the scenario where one of those players emerges as a bonafide threat.

Neither of those players are better than Hayes. Both are in his range offensively but not even close defensively.

I think you're even underselling Hayes' offense here. Those guys have the talent to be better, but they're not there today. He took a while to get going, but over the last 3 years, he's producing 5v5 Primary Points at a comparable rate to Duchene despite their relative reps. He's not as skilled, but he leverages what he has really damn well.

Sidenote, but the back-loading was the most maddening part of the AMac deal. I hope they learned from it.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

Ugly as hell.

It will be super fun trying to keep our other important players in 3 years or so.

Fletcher looks to be treating all of the organization’s hard earned assets and cap space like Monopoly money.

 

[The Madrigal]

And you burn that bridge when you get to it. If this deal is front-loaded correctly, you can easily trade him in the scenario where one of those players emerges as a bonafide threat.



Neither of those players are better than Hayes. Both are in his range offensively but not even close defensively.

Sarcasm dude

 

[Jtown]

"I don't know what the hell people want anymore. They're completely fine with chasing over the hill vet Defensemen and then flip out when they sign an actively good player for 500k more than they wanted to spend.

If you think Hayes is a quality 2C (and he is) and you let him walk over 500k per, that's criminal. You adjust your budget down 500k elsewhere and move on with your life."
@JojoTheWhale

No doubt Hayes is a quality center. And if this team was a quality 2c away from competing for a cup with no other in house options then I'd be all on board for this signing. The closer you look however the more this signing just doesn't pass any sort of eye test. Hayes has had 1 really good year and bunch of average years. What he is good at is similar to what the flyers currently have, 2 way responsible centers. What the flyers are currently not good at, hayes does not address.
Now with all that being said we have the 2nd overall pick about to enter his 3rd year in the nhl. I think it is a safe assumption to expect a big step up in production.

Let's play out 2 scenarios. 1 . Patrick gets it , and it clicks and now has taken some of the offensive burden from our top players and has come into his own. The 2nd Scenario is that Patrick again struggles to take a step forward. Either way the hayes signing is not an impactful one. Why? Well in the first scenario you just signed the most expensive 3rd line center in the game, and in the 2nd Scenario you are still not a team that is going to win a cup. If patrick doesn't reach his potential this team is f***ed. IF he does reach his potential, and we can have Coots and Patrick kind of overlap their primes together then we have a legit cup winning formula .

The Hayes signing does nothing but improve a bad team marginally and provide weak insurance for Patrick.​

 

[Curufinwe]

What colossal pricks him and his agent must be to demand that extra million that gives Hayes an annoying cap number. Couldn't just be a simple 7 x 7, oh no.

 

[Jettany]

Ugly as hell.

It will be super fun trying to keep our other important players in 3 years or so.

Fletcher looks to be treating all of the organization’s hard earned assets and cap space like Monopoly money.

I get the cap space. But assets?

 

[The Madrigal]

We have been trying to have 3 good centers since our SC run days...say 2011. We now have that.

We have been trying to ice a good 3rd line for years. We now have that.

We have been trying to ice a 4th line that is not trash. We now have that.

We have been trying to have 6 good Dmen since before Pronger. We now have that.

We have been trying to have a legit #1 goalie since Mason left. We now have that...with star upside.

We have been trying to have coaches who know what they are doing. We have that now.

Enjoy that we are no longer sitting, waiting, and hoping. And we still have all our top prospects and assets.

Nah, I would rather be 2-3 years away from being 2-3 years away.

 

[bennysflyers16]

So Coots is criminally underpaid, and his contract expires about half way through this Hayes deal. I wonder what's going through his head. Not that he's bitter or resentful of others getting paid, but what kind of number is he going to want? If the Flyers keep him around, he's going to be the highest paid player on the team, I'm thinking north of $9m. Maybe $9.6. There's a mental block where he stays under $10m, but Mathews got $11m, so anything is possible. (Different type of players sure, different ages, etc. etc., just that I think Coots does more towards winning hockey than Mathews. Could use Point and his suspected target range of $10m as a comparable too. And those are RFA years...)

There were some rumblings here that Scheifele is mad about his deal. Too bad tho, you signed it.

 

[duffy9748]

We have been trying to have 3 good centers since our SC run days...say 2011. We now have that.

We have been trying to ice a good 3rd line for years. We now have that.

We have been trying to ice a 4th line that is not trash. We now have that.

We have been trying to have 6 good Dmen since before Pronger. We now have that.

We have been trying to have a legit #1 goalie since Mason left. We now have that...with star upside.

We have been trying to have coaches who know what they are doing. We have that now.

Enjoy that we are no longer sitting, waiting, and hoping. And we still have all our top prospects and assets.

Ideally though, you roll out a 1A/1B center with Patrick behind them. Now the only way that happens is if Patrick or Frost become 1B and push Hayes down.

 

[duffy9748]

So Coots is criminally underpaid, and his contract expires about half way through this Hayes deal. I wonder what's going through his head. Not that he's bitter or resentful of others getting paid, but what kind of number is he going to want? If the Flyers keep him around, he's going to be the highest paid player on the team, I'm thinking north of $9m. Maybe $9.6. There's a mental block where he stays under $10m, but Mathews got $11m, so anything is possible. (Different type of players sure, different ages, etc. etc., just that I think Coots does more towards winning hockey than Mathews. Could use Point and his suspected target range of $10m as a comparable too. And those are RFA years...)

Good point on Couturier. It would’ve happened regardless but he’s getting 10-11+ for sure by the time he’s a free agent. Which is why it’s okay to make this move now and go for it over the next 3 years while Couturier is cheap, but I think a better center becomes available.

I believe moving a package of Frost/Farabee/11+Ratcliffe/2020 1st+B prospects would’ve been worth it when that player becomes available. You’d still be flushed with a ton of prospects that can take time to develop with no holes to fill over the next 2 seasons.

With the additions of Niskanen/Braun and the progression of the young defensemen, this team would’ve been ready to challenge for a cup instantly if Hart was up for the challenge. I still think they’ll be a contender in the Metro next year, but 2020-2021 and 21-22 should be their best rosters.

 

[Rich Nixon]

Ugly as hell.

It will be super fun trying to keep our other important players in 3 years or so.

Fletcher looks to be treating all of the organization’s hard earned assets and cap space like Monopoly money.

I think this is a weird stance. They could have cheaper cap hits/more cap space if they were trading real assets, but instead the only things of material value gone are Gudas, a 2nd, a 3rd, and a 5th. No prospects, none of the sterling young defensemen, no 1sts.

Cap space is always finite, though the cap always increases slightly. The Flyers never had the crazy cap flexibility it seemed like they did, given the holes they had to fill and the RFAs they had to resign. Fletcher is playing with it somewhat recklessly right now, though, but if you're going to sacrifice one thing, it's best to be cap room.

 

[Jettany]

What colossal pricks him and his agent must be to demand that extra million that gives Hayes an annoying cap number. Couldn't just be a simple 7 x 7, oh no.

I agree!

 

[Tripod]

Ideally though, you roll out a 1A/1B center with Patrick behind them. Now the only way that happens is if Patrick or Frost become 1B and push Hayes down.

But again....who is this 1B that we can just magically add....and what is the cost?

If it is Duchene, then it costs 10 million given Skinner is at 9.

If it's in a trade, what is a #1 C cost when people on here were willing to trade Ghost for Kadri who is like Hayes?

The keeping of all of our prospects, #11, future 1st, and all our roster players can't be ignored. It's well worth the extra 600,00 Hayes was overpaid by.

 

[The Madrigal]

No doubt Hayes is a quality center. And if this team was a quality 2c away from competing for a cup with no other in house options then I'd be all on board for this signing. The closer you look however the more this signing just doesn't pass any sort of eye test. Hayes has had 1 really good year and bunch of average years.
​

That is completely false. Before this year's 54 point season he had 44 points but a career in goals with 25, and 49 points the year before that. He was slightly more productive this past season but he has been consistently good over the last three years. He is also a good two-way center who can kill penalties and gets most of his points at ES.




​

 

[hatcher]

Nah, I would rather be 2-3 years away from being 2-3 years away.

Yeah I watch for draft night only. f*** a good product.

 

[Jtown]

That is completely false. Before this year's 54 point season he had 44 points but a career in goals with 25, and 49 points the year before that. He was slightly more productive this past season but he has been consistently good over the last three years. He is also a good two-way center who can kill penalties and gets most of his points at ES.




​

what is false? where i say he is a quality 2c?

 

[Jettany]

I think this is a weird stance. They could have cheaper cap hits/more cap space if they were trading real assets, but instead the only things of material value gone are Gudas, a 2nd, a 3rd, and a 5th. No prospects, none of the sterling young defensemen, no 1sts.

Cap space is always finite, though the cap always increases slightly. The Flyers never had the crazy cap flexibility it seemed like they did, given the holes they had to fill and the RFAs they had to resign. Fletcher is playing with it somewhat recklessly right now, though, but if you're going to sacrifice one thing, it's best to be cap room.

I agree to a point. But let's say Hayes got six and you didn't add Braun. This year you would have 4 million more. Next year one million more after Braun leaves. Is that enough of a reason not to make these moves? I am not sure.

 

[duffy9748]

But again....who is this 1B that we can just magically add....and what is the cost?

If it is Duchene, then it costs 10 million given Skinner is at 9.

If it's in a trade, what is a #1 C cost when people on here were willing to trade Ghost for Kadri who is like Hayes?

The keeping of all of our prospects, #11, future 1st, and all our roster players can't be ignored. It's well worth the extra 600,00 Hayes was overpaid by.

I listed a 5 or 6 centers better than Hayes that have moved over the last year in the last thread. You don’t think some will become available between now and the deadline?

And yes, it’s worth giving up ONE of Frost/Farabee/11 and a combination of 2020 picks and other prospects.

 

[The Madrigal]

But again....who is this 1B that we can just magically add....and what is the cost?

If it is Duchene, then it costs 10 million given Skinner is at 9.

If it's in a trade, what is a #1 C cost when people on here were willing to trade Ghost for Kadri who is like Hayes?

The keeping of all of our prospects, #11, future 1st, and all our roster players can't be ignored. It's well worth the extra 600,00 Hayes was overpaid by.

For some reason a lot of people don't understand this.

 

[Flyotes]

A bit much, but there are positives.