Karlsson vs Trade 'Haul' Stat Comparison Thread

[Micklebot]

I think you are forgetting the salary equation factored in. Yes, Duchene and Karlsson make the same money now, but whoever acquires Karlsson needs to find 12M in space.

Most teams aren't worried about making room for a player of the tier you normally just plain can't acquire. They just find a way to get it done. Toronto found a way to sign Tavares, as would have Boston, SJ, Dallas, Tampa, or NYI given they were all bidding for him. And they couldn't shed any salary in the transaction like what happens when you trade for a player.

 

[solidprospect]

Ŵonder if Karlsson has gone out to dinner with his buddy evander kane

 

[dumbdick]

I kind of don't want to lock up any players, no matter how good, for that much coin. We're not the kind of team that can buy its way out of injuries or bad contracts....i'd almost prefer to take the safety of the trade return with more spread out salary. A bad trade or bust prospects will hurt, but not like having $20m tied up in bobby and an injured Karl for half a decade.

 

[solidprospect]

I kind of don't want to lock up any players, no matter how good, for that much coin. We're not the kind of team that can buy its way out of injuries or bad contracts....i'd almost prefer to take the safety of the trade return with more spread out salary. A bad trade or bust prospects will hurt, but not like having $20m tied up in bobby and an injured Karl for half a decade.

People have seen good players leave here quite a bit, the one player we sign to a 7 year deal that ends passed his prime, was Bobby Ryan rather than anyone else.

I'd stay away from 7 year deals unless the player is 24-25.

 

[dumbdick]

People have seen good players leave here quite a bit, the one player we sign to a 7 year deal that ends passed his prime, was Bobby Ryan rather than anyone else.

Yep. Just look at Spezza. Many complained about the trade value and us not resigning him. He got 26 points last season making 7.5M. How bad would we be right now with him and bobby on the books? Sometimes you can lose a trade and still win it, you know?

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Fenix Rises 2026 i think you have a point.

If we're spending 50-60 mil going forward, we just don't have the luxury of any big contracts.

Treat the rebuild as a constantly in flux never ending factory line of players you trade when they get too close to that big contract.

Its stupid, and its a terrible way to do business in this league, but im not seeing any other option to not just hit a financial wall again down the line.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I kind of don't want to lock up any players, no matter how good, for that much coin. We're not the kind of team that can buy its way out of injuries or bad contracts....i'd almost prefer to take the safety of the trade return with more spread out salary. A bad trade or bust prospects will hurt, but not like having $20m tied up in bobby and an injured Karl for half a decade.

I don't think anyone wants to sign anyone to huge deals for max length. But, that's the way the league works these days.

 

[HSF]

lol once karlsson starts ripping the league again the tone in this thread will change so fast. he is a once in a lifetime player for the sens

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

lol once karlsson starts ripping the league again the tone in this thread will change so fast. he is a once in a lifetime player for the sens

Right now he's on a less than 47 points pace, good for 43rd among D men in the league, after 7 games, and is a minus 5.

Let us know when the ripping starts svp

 

[Ice-Tray]

lol once karlsson starts ripping the league again the tone in this thread will change so fast. he is a once in a lifetime player for the sens

Why would the tone change? It’s seems like normal behaviour for fans of a team to be happy when they’re side of the trade is out producing the other, even if it doesn’t last.

We should be feeling good about it. If that changes, then we can feel less good about it at that point if we choose. Lots of people just aren’t emotionally attached to EK, they cheer for the team first.

 

[Sentron5000]

I think the emergence of both Chabot and Lajoie has helped offset the loss of Karlsson. If no one had stepped up in his absence, I think we would hear a lot more complaining. Under the circumstances, I think the team might come out of this ok, despite the restrictions of ownership.

 

[foggyvisor]

Why would the tone change? It’s seems like normal behaviour for fans of a team to be happy when they’re side of the trade is out producing the other, even if it doesn’t last.

We should be feeling good about it. If that changes, then we can feel less good about it at that point if we choose. Lots of people just aren’t emotionally attached to EK, they cheer for the team first.

How is being emotionally attached to one of the best defenceman in the history of hockey weird and being emotionally attached to Canadian Donald Trump's business not weird?

 

[foggyvisor]

Let us know when the ripping starts svp

And, inevitably, when he does, and someone let's you know, what will you do?

 

[dumbdick]

Here's where I put the odds for a Karl deal at 12m over 8 years:

(A) outperforms the 12m salary for most or all of the contract...30%
(B) plays to that contract value, no more no less....30%
(C) underperforms the contract value by a bit....25%
(D) dramatically underperforms either due to injury or play decline....15%

So i think odds are he will live up to that deal. But I also think option D at 12m aav is franchise crippling, and I understand a willingness to take a bad trade to avoid even a 15% chance of it happening. It's like the precautionary principle in climate change. I doubt PD is thinking this way, but if he is I at least understand the mentality. In reality, i expect they just can't afford him.

Where do others put those percentages?

 

[Micklebot]

Here's where I put the odds for a Karl deal at 12m over 8 years:

(A) outperforms the 12m salary for most or all of the contract...30%
(B) plays to that contract value, no more no less....30%
(C) underperforms the contract value by a bit....25%
(D) dramatically underperforms either due to injury or play decline....15%

So i think odds are he will live up to that deal. But I also think option D at 12m aav is franchise crippling, and I understand a willingness to take a bad trade to avoid even a 15% chance of it happening. It's like the precautionary principle in climate change. I doubt PD is thinking this way, but if he is I at least understand the mentality. In reality, i expect they just can't afford him.

Where do others put those percentages?

It really depends on how the cap goes. If by the end of the contract, the cap is up to 120 mil by the time the contract expires, then it will be hard to underperform. Also, any changes do to the lockout could have an effect.

My best guess is he'll perform up to the contract the first 6 years, and slightly below the last two, but it's really just a wild guess.

 

[JD1]

People have seen good players leave here quite a bit, the one player we sign to a 7 year deal that ends passed his prime, was Bobby Ryan rather than anyone else.

I'd stay away from 7 year deals unless the player is 24-25.

yes good players have left here but every situation is different

the only player I can think of off the top of my head that left where we could have signed the player long term and the level of play remained strong was Chara. In that situation they chose Redden and it was the wrong move.

Spezza's play isn't what it was and we'd of suffered with him on a long term deal.

Alfie was 40.

Hossa got us Heatley. Heatley f***ed us but there again his play dropped way off.

 

[JD1]

Fenix Rises 2026 i think you have a point.

If we're spending 50-60 mil going forward, we just don't have the luxury of any big contracts.

Treat the rebuild as a constantly in flux never ending factory line of players you trade when they get too close to that big contract.

Its stupid, and its a terrible way to do business in this league, but im not seeing any other option to not just hit a financial wall again down the line.

well we might get away with this for 5 years or so and then hopefully lebreton is near and we can start buying up some ufa years.

 

[JD1]

Here's where I put the odds for a Karl deal at 12m over 8 years:

(A) outperforms the 12m salary for most or all of the contract...30%
(B) plays to that contract value, no more no less....30%
(C) underperforms the contract value by a bit....25%
(D) dramatically underperforms either due to injury or play decline....15%

So i think odds are he will live up to that deal. But I also think option D at 12m aav is franchise crippling, and I understand a willingness to take a bad trade to avoid even a 15% chance of it happening. It's like the precautionary principle in climate change. I doubt PD is thinking this way, but if he is I at least understand the mentality. In reality, i expect they just can't afford him.

Where do others put those percentages?

I like what you've done here. You've laid it out well and presented it in a way that the risk can at least be categorized. There is a risk to signing him and I've said pretty much throughout 2018 that the risk is crippling for this franchise to take

 

[JD1]

It really depends on how the cap goes. If by the end of the contract, the cap is up to 120 mil by the time the contract expires, then it will be hard to underperform. Also, any changes do to the lockout could have an effect.

My best guess is he'll perform up to the contract the first 6 years, and slightly below the last two, but it's really just a wild guess.

hey Micklebot

have you read thru the updated aging study I linked for you yet?

 

[dumbdick]

I like what you've done here. You've laid it out well and presented it in a way that the risk can at least be categorized. There is a risk to signing him and I've said pretty much throughout 2018 that the risk is crippling for this franchise to take

Yep, and it's specific risk for a budget team. JT's contract structure with salary paid up front every year ensures you can trade that player to a sub-cap team. It's salary retention built right into the deal. If he declines and you trade him with two years left on his deal, the receiving team is getting him at a 50% real dollar discount. In the final year he's owed nothing and even if he's performing way below his salary, Toronto can easily trade him. Budget teams are betting the farm when they sign their stars....rich teams aren't. It's becoming the MLB.

 

[Tuna99]

Right now he's on a less than 47 points pace, good for 43rd among D men in the league, after 7 games, and is a minus 5.

Let us know when the ripping starts svp

You like Eugene Melnyck and you don’t like Erik Karlsson - how?

 

[Micklebot]

hey Micklebot

have you read thru the updated aging study I linked for you yet?

Yes. It uses a metric (war) which has its own issues (no accounting for contextual metrics and somewhat unreliable for defensive metrics) and does't speak to elite players. The follow up article corrects for survivorship bias leading the author to conlude that the drop of probably doesn't happen as quickly and early as drastically as the previous artlcle suggested.

The article also interestingly suggested that players don't improve defensively which doesn't really align with the eye test, or at least my eye test. My suspicion is that's a usage issue as coaches will insulate young players until they improve.

Interesting read and thx for sharing. Never been a fan of all encompasing stats like war so i will be honest, that right off the bat has me taking it with a grain of salt but i liked the methodology to get year to year deltas.

 

[The Lewler]

Right now he's on a less than 47 points pace, good for 43rd among D men in the league, after 7 games, and is a minus 5.

Let us know when the ripping starts svp

Oh so we are doing the small sample size thing again are we?

I can't wait for Max Lajoie to put up 96 points this year.

 

[Spirit of 67]

Most teams aren't worried about making room for a player of the tier you normally just plain can't acquire. They just find a way to get it done. Toronto found a way to sign Tavares, as would have Boston, SJ, Dallas, Tampa, or NYI given they were all bidding for him. And they couldn't shed any salary in the transaction like what happens when you trade for a player.

I agree with the principle of your argument.

But the Leafs we able to shed salary by not re-signing JVR, Bozak and Uncle Leo.
So you can always shed salary. One way or another.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Here's where I put the odds for a Karl deal at 12m over 8 years:

12 Million is just about half of the projected cap space, for the Sharks in 2019-20........ and they have 5 other UFAs to either sign, or let go, and 5 RFAs to squeeze in under the Cap.

That's a tall order to fill imo.