Karlsson vs Trade 'Haul' Stat Comparison Thread

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Tnuoc Alucard

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Sep 23, 2015
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You like Eugene Melnyck and you don’t like Erik Karlsson - how?


So anyone who does not share your POV on EK65, or EM automatically "likes" EM and "Doesn't like" EK 65?

I don't know how many times I've explained this ...... but for you, it's obviously not been enough times.

I don't "like" EM, and I would prefer another owner, who is less involved, and pretty much stays out of the limelight. BUT, I deal with the reality of who the owner is, and know there is always more than one side to any issue, and sometimes try to point that out to some of the automatic haters here .......... and will not "Fall into line" and march to the beat of the Hate the Owner crowd, just to get along with them.
 
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Tnuoc Alucard

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Oh so we are doing the small sample size thing again are we?

I can't wait for Max Lajoie to put up 96 points this year.

The Ottawa Offensive attack plans, and the PP, were all centered around EK65, when he was in Ottawa ..... and his stats reflected that.

In San Jose, they've added him to their system, and has not reorganized it to use him as the Senators did. Therefore it safe to say that his offensive stats in San Jose may not measure up to his Ottawa number.
 

Micklebot

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The Ottawa Offensive attack plans, and the PP, were all centered around EK65, when he was in Ottawa ..... and his stats reflected that.

In San Jose, they've added him to their system, and has not reorganized it to use him as the Senators did. Therefore it safe to say that his offensive stats in San Jose may not measure up to his Ottawa number.

Or, he's just taking time to build chemistry with players he's never played with in a new system he's never played in.
 

BoardsofCanada

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I have center ice so I've watched a few Sharks' games just out of curiosity and Count describes it perfectly. Karlsson is one of a few different weapons they have. He doesn't get nearly as much ice time and when he is on the ice, he isn't the main guy like he was here in Ottawa.

On a different topic, I've watched a few Panther games as well and I have to say Hoffman has looked awkward with his new linemates. I've always been a big fan of his but so far, he has been ineffective.

I am sure both guys will warm up but it's interesting to see how talented players struggle when their role/situation changes.
 

Tnuoc Alucard

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Or, he's just taking time to build chemistry with players he's never played with in a new system he's never played in.

Are you suggesting that Ottawas' "game plan" was not to funnel everything though EK65 at ES and on the PP, and thereby giving him mare opportunities to put up points?

Or are you suggesting that SJ is changing their "game plan" to funnel everything though EK65 at ES and on the PP, and they've yet to work out the kinks?
 

Tnuoc Alucard

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I have center ice so I've watched a few Sharks' games just out of curiosity and Count describes it perfectly. Karlsson is one of a few different weapons they have. He doesn't get nearly as much ice time and when he is on the ice, he isn't the main guy like he was here in Ottawa.

On a different topic, I've watched a few Panther games as well and I have to say Hoffman has looked awkward with his new linemates. I've always been a big fan of his but so far, he has been ineffective.

I am sure both guys will warm up but it's interesting to see how talented players struggle when their role/situation changes.


Thank you, and I saw the same thing you did, when NHL CI was on free preview, earlier this season.

Why would SJ completely change their offensive team strategies, at ES and on the PP, to revolve around EK65, who is looking like he's just a rental at this point?
 

Ice-Tray

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It will be interesting to see if his contract expectations change based on a reduced role and reduced production on a more balanced SJ team.

It might actually set up better expectations on him for the next long term deal. Even if he comes back to us I don't see him being in the same situation as he was previously in Ottawa ever again. He's going to have to get used to being an integral PART of a team if he wants to win, rather than BE the team.

I think he'll adapt just fine, he's just too talented, and enjoy the success that can come with adding a player of that caliber to an established system. He may have to accept a contract that lumps him into the top group of defensemen though instead of something that places him head and shoulders above.
 

Micklebot

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Are you suggesting that Ottawas' "game plan" was not to funnel everything though EK65 at ES and on the PP, and thereby giving him mare opportunities to put up points?

Or are you suggesting that SJ is changing their "game plan" to funnel everything though EK65 at ES and on the PP, and they've yet to work out the kinks?
I am suggesting neither,

What I am suggesting is that playing with more talent on this ice means more converted chances (generally speaking). More talent to play with will likely offset any lowered role in offense. Back when we had Spezza, the PP flowed through him, but Karlsson scored just as much on the PP the years we had Spezza as the years we did not.

What is clear though is that Karlsson's PDO (sv% + Sh%) is unsustainable low right now both at 5v5 and on the PP. That is almost guaranteed to change, and the result, assuming all else stays the same, will by an outpouring of production given his on ice sh% is roughly half league average. Basically, his production issue right now is clearly sample size,
 

Tnuoc Alucard

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I am suggesting neither,

What I am suggesting is that playing with more talent on this ice means more converted chances (generally speaking). More talent to play with will likely offset any lowered role in offense. Back when we had Spezza, the PP flowed through him, but Karlsson scored just as much on the PP the years we had Spezza as the years we did not.

What is clear though is that Karlsson's PDO (sv% + Sh%) is unsustainable low right now both at 5v5 and on the PP. That is almost guaranteed to change, and the result, assuming all else stays the same, will by an outpouring of production given his on ice sh% is roughly half league average. Basically, his production issue right now is clearly sample size,


I agree it's a sample size, but I've mentioned in the past, that his offensive footprint on Ottawa was, and will be larger than it will be, with the Sharks, for the reasons I've brought up in this thread.

They're not going to cut down the ice time of other Dmen to give him more ice time, at ES or on the PP.

One just has to look at the changes made on the Ottawa PP, to see how much different it is today vs last season, when EK65 pretty much spent the entire PP on the ice.
 

Micklebot

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I agree it's a sample size, but I've mentioned in the past, that his offensive footprint on Ottawa was, and will be larger than it will be, with the Sharks, for the reasons I've brought up in this thread.

They're not going to cut down the ice time of other Dmen to give him more ice time, at ES or on the PP.

One just has to look at the changes made on the Ottawa PP, to see how much different it is today vs last season, when EK65 pretty much spent the entire PP on the ice.

They don't need to cut back on other D's PP time and give it to him, they just need to not be scoring on a pedestrian 4% of PP shots.

The changes on the Ottawa PP tough to attribute given that Boucher took over so it's a new system than prior years, and again, it's a very small sample. We had 6 games stretches in other years where the PP actually played very well too, then other teams adapted and we went into ruts.

The one thing that historically is extremely unlikely to be sustainable is Karlsson's very low on ice sh%. when that regresses to the norm, he will produce at a much higher rate given it's currently roughly half his career norm and he's playing with more talented players.
 

Karl Prime

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I've watched every Sharks game but one, and EK has been fine. Not spectacular, but pretty solid. He may put 70 points this season, he may put up 60. But by March and April we'll probably be looking at another great season for him and another Norris nomination should he remain healthy. The last game against the Sabres he started to look more like vintage EK (even deked Pominville) and was involved in enough chances to have another point or two.

Not to mention, points-wise he's always been better in the second half of the season, and overall as well. He won both his Norrises by his play from December to March, not in October and November. His career PDO is 99.2, so that will rise very soon and the points will come.
 
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swiftwin

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It's been a few weeks, time for an update

San Jose got

Erik Karlsson 13GP 0G 7A 7P -10
AHL-Francis Perron 9GP 5G 5A 10P +5

Ottawa got
Chris Tierney 12GP 2G 9A 11P +2
Dylan DeMelo 12GP 2G 5A 7P +8
AHL-Rudolfs Balcers 10GP 4G 4A 8P +3
NCAA-Josh Norris 5GP 3G 5A 8P -3

2020 1st round pick

2019 2nd round pick - currently projected 33rd overall
*2020 2nd round pick - conditional if Karlsson re-signs (upgrades to 1st if SJ makes the SCF this season)
 
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CorrectOpinion

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It's been a few weeks, time for an update

San Jose got

Erik Karlsson 13GP 0G 7A 7P -9
AHL-Francis Perron 9GP 5G 5A 10P +5

Ottawa got
Chris Tierney 12GP 2G 9A 11P +2
Dylan DeMelo 12GP 2G 5A 7P +8
AHL-Rudolfs Balcers 10GP 4G 4A 8P +3
NCAA-Josh Norris 5GP 3G 5A 8P -3

2020 1st round pick

2019 2nd round pick - currently projected 33rd overall
*2020 2nd round pick - conditional if Karlsson re-signs (upgrades to 1st if SJ makes the SCF this season)

Woohoo!
 

Goodbahd

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Definitely looking like a good trade so far, plus Chabot looking primed to take over the reigns. DeMelo has been a silent surprise, crazy to think he has as many points as Karlsson so far, even if it doesn’t last. No way he’d be worth 8 years at 11M/year; it would definitely handcuff the team 3-4 years into the contract, and you’d be basically paying for past performance.
 
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CorrectOpinion

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Definitely looking like a good trade so far, plus Chabot looking primed to take over the reigns. DeMelo has been a silent surprise, crazy to think he has as many points as Karlsson so far, even if it doesn’t last. No way he’d be worth 8 years at 11M/year; it would definitely handcuff the team 3-4 years into the contract, and you’d be basically paying for past performance.
Agree
 
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L'Aveuglette

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Definitely looking like a good trade so far, plus Chabot looking primed to take over the reigns. DeMelo has been a silent surprise, crazy to think he has as many points as Karlsson so far, even if it doesn’t last. No way he’d be worth 8 years at 11M/year; it would definitely handcuff the team 3-4 years into the contract, and you’d be basically paying for past performance.

Yep, because a 12 game sample > Many years of elite performance

Gimme a break. He hasn't dropped off a cliff magically. He'll get going soon enough and these hot takes will all look silly.
 

Tnuoc Alucard

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It's been a few weeks, time for an update

San Jose got

Erik Karlsson 13GP 0G 7A 7P -9



EK is sitting with a - 10 , and only two other players in the entire league have a worse plus/minus rating.

He is on track for about 45 points this season.
 

Tuna99

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Sep 26, 2009
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EK is sitting with a - 10 , and only two other players in the entire league have a worse plus/minus rating.

He is on track for about 45 points this season.

I’ll still take him.

I check the San Jose standing every day, the idea that they could not make the playoffs is real and we get their 1st lottery pick is still real. SJ will make the playoffs, just to much talent, but How much would a top 5 pick be a godsend to the Ottawa Senators.

EK always has a magic quality to him, maybe there is some hockey gods magic left for Ottawa and SJ misses the playoffs and Ottawa wins the draft lottery
 

Tnuoc Alucard

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I’ll still take him.

I check the San Jose standing every day, the idea that they could not make the playoffs is real and we get their 1st lottery pick is still real. SJ will make the playoffs, just to much talent, but How much would a top 5 pick be a godsend to the Ottawa Senators.

EK always has a magic quality to him, maybe there is some hockey gods magic left for Ottawa and SJ misses the playoffs and Ottawa wins the draft lottery



I think you're safe in saying the Sharks will make the playoffs ...... they've pretty much loaded up for a long playoff run this season ........ bringing in EK as a season long rental (as it stands now).

Let's not forget that Ottawa's "game plan" was centered around forcing turnovers, and getting the puck to EK as much as possible, to drive the offense. This plus playing him for the full duration of a PP pretty much all the time, were two of the reasons his offensive stats almost always lead the team.

In SJ, he is not the focal point for their offense, as they have a number of other "Tools" to use vs their opponents, so his role in the offense is diminished in respect to how he was used in Ottawa.
 

Joeyjoejoe

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Dec 18, 2015
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Can't wait for next season with Alfie ownership.

Dzingel - Duchene - White
Tkachuk - Tierney - Stone
Formenton - Chlapik - Batherson
Boedker - Pageau - Ryan
Paul

Chabot - Karlsson
Lajoie - DeMelo
Wolanin - Jaros
Wideman.

Anderson
Gus
 
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alfstheman

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Jul 2, 2009
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Yep, because a 12 game sample > Many years of elite performance

Gimme a break. He hasn't dropped off a cliff magically. He'll get going soon enough and these hot takes will all look silly.

No one is saying that Demelo is better than EK, just that the whole sky is falling feeling from the offseason wasnt quite as disastrous as it seemed. Demelo and Tierny are surpassing expectations and will probably trend down a bit but we've been saying that for the last few weeks now... the prospects are also showing lots potential so while it sucks losing EK we have a lot more in the cupboard than before.
 

Do Make Say Think

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Hard to argue against the fact that losing EK and Hoff has worked out well in terms of PP. People can be great at what they do and still take too much room, that very well may have been the case and quite a few of us felt that way.

Karlsson producing at a lesser rate with SJ was somewhat foreseeable: he is at his best when he hogs the puck like a madman, he can't do that on the Sharks. He'll likely adapt but it's proven to be harder/longer than I thought it would.
 
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