TSN: Kadri: "The confidence is there"

[The Examiner]

In a heartbeat

WOW! Some humility from a Leaf fan. Bravo, sir!

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I like Kadri
But I'm not paying top dollar for a defensively responsible center with no finish - leaf brass gave him 1 season to show them the money ... And well ...

 

[Macallan18]

I think at the end of the day it will be a Nylander/Marner line, with Kadri as the number 2 centre, and a fine one he will be. After that, as 3c Bozak for a while? Gauthier eventually? Who knows, but Kadri I believe will be with the team at least another 4 or 5 years. He is just in his prime, and the goals will come. Thankfully Babcock and this management understand how to evaluate his play, which has been excellent.

 

[Bluelines]

Since breaking into the NHL full-time, Kadri ranks 34th in center scoring. Think the lockout was a fluke? Remove it and he's 44th.

"3rd line center", there are your stats.

In defensively lack systems, which Kadri and team missed the playoffs 4 out of 5 times, he was able to put up pedestrian point totals. Nothing to beat your chest about.

In a defensively sound system, he has struggled to produce goals. I think its a bit early to peg him as a 1 or a 2, he will decide by his play and production where he pegs in. I think its safe to say he can easily play 3rd line minutes under Babcock. The question is, can he produce and play great defence as a top 2 guy in Babcock's system, I feel that only time will tell us that.

 

[Gallagbi]

In defensively lack systems, which Kadri and team missed the playoffs 4 out of 5 times, he was able to put up pedestrian point totals. Nothing to beat your chest about.

In a defensively sound system, he has struggled to produce goals. I think its a bit early to peg him as a 1 or a 2, he will decide by his play and production where he pegs in. I think its safe to say he can easily play 3rd line minutes under Babcock. The question is, can he produce and play great defence as a top 2 guy in Babcock's system, I feel that only time will tell us that.

Doesn't Babcock think he's playing well in his current system?

 

[Bluelines]

Doesn't Babcock think he's playing well in his current system?

Babcoks said one day that Kadri has been his best forward, then the very next day when asked about Kadri he said that we are in the business of scoring goals, so Babcock seems to be saying things that are in conflict with each other.

If someone says Babs I got this guy who is on pace to score 8 goals and a 2.4% shooter, he's the perfect #1 or #2 center for you, I take a 1st rounder and a prospect for him... Babs, Shanny and Lou would probably tell you to pound sand.

From a development perspective I'm guessing Babcock is very happy, from a production perspective I'm betting that he is quite disappointed.

So talking about playing well and producing well, it's probably important to be clear that there is a difference between the two and that needs to be considered when thinking about Kadri's net worth to the team.

 

[The Apologist]

I think at the end of the day it will be a Nylander/Marner line, with Kadri as the number 2 centre, and a fine one he will be. After that, as 3c Bozak for a while? Gauthier eventually? Who knows, but Kadri I believe will be with the team at least another 4 or 5 years. He is just in his prime, and the goals will come. Thankfully Babcock and this management understand how to evaluate his play, which has been excellent.

I dont see Bozak lasting beyond the trade deadline. Leafs wanted a second for him and if he can keep up what hes doing theyll get it. That being said, with Nazem its 1/2c or bust IMHO.

 

[Macallan18]

Babcoks said one day that Kadri has been his best forward, then the very next day when asked about Kadri he said that we are in the business of scoring goals, so Babcock seems to be saying things that are in conflict with each other.

If someone says Babs I got this guy who is on pace to score 8 goals and a 2.4% shooter, he's the perfect #1 or #2 center for you, I take a 1st rounder and a prospect for him... Babs, Shanny and Lou would probably tell you to pound sand.

From a development perspective I'm guessing Babcock is very happy, from a production perspective I'm betting that he is quite disappointed.

So talking about playing well and producing well, it's probably important to be clear that there is a difference between the two and that needs to be considered when thinking about Kadri's net worth to the team.

I disagree. I think Babcock better then anyone can see that Kadri is getting excellent scoring chances, just snake-bit. As well, the Leafs have about 3 or 4 goals created by Kadri with his penalty drawing, for which he is alone in the league. He has stuck with Kadri, and I hope that with the goal last night the drought will be over and he will return to a more normal goals per shots percentage.

 

[Duckrider]

If you watch his goal it looks like he throws the monkey off his back...Literately

 

[Durrr]

I like Kadri
But I'm not paying top dollar for a defensively responsible center with no finish - leaf brass gave him 1 season to show them the money ... And well ...

Yeah I forgot the season ended yesterday, can't believe Crosby is a 40 point player now...what happened to him

 

[Hockey Talker29]

Babcoks said one day that Kadri has been his best forward, then the very next day when asked about Kadri he said that we are in the business of scoring goals, so Babcock seems to be saying things that are in conflict with each other.

If someone says Babs I got this guy who is on pace to score 8 goals and a 2.4% shooter, he's the perfect #1 or #2 center for you I take a 1st rounder and a prospect for him... Babs, Shanny and Lou would probably tell you to pound sand.

From a development perspective I'm guessing Babcock is very happy, from a production perspective I'm betting that he is quite disappointed.

So talking about playing well and producing well, it's probably important to be clear that there is a difference between the two and that needs to be considered when thinking about Kadri's net worth to the team.

Well, Kadri doubled his shooting % yesterday. If he continues to do that on a daily basis, he'll likely be a 200% shooter soon.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Yeah I forgot the season ended yesterday, can't believe Crosby is a 40 point player now...what happened to him

Your analogy is perfect. Thanks.

Kadri == Crosby.

 

[Ovate]

Your analogy is perfect. Thanks.

Kadri == Crosby.

Instead of realizing the point he was trying to make was that even generational players can have scoring slumps and therefore production over a small sample size is not a great way to judge a player, you instead fall back to "comparisons aren't perfect and therefore they're worthless".

 

[Bluelines]

Yeah I forgot the season ended yesterday, can't believe Crosby is a 40 point player now...what happened to him

The obvious difference is Crosby has a massive history of leading, winning championships, being an elite sniper and setup man, so when he goes through a small slump, you'll give him the benefit of the doubt, when a guy who has never won anything at the pro level, never leaded his pro team and never scored at more than a pedestrian rate, goes through a major slump, he doesn't give the benefit of the doubt.

 

[Bluelines]

I disagree. I think Babcock better then anyone can see that Kadri is getting excellent scoring chances, just snake-bit. As well, the Leafs have about 3 or 4 goals created by Kadri with his penalty drawing, for which he is alone in the league. He has stuck with Kadri, and I hope that with the goal last night the drought will be over and he will return to a more normal goals per shots percentage.

No doubt Babcock can see it, but at certain point those chances have to turn into goals, not many teams can compete with a top line center who does not produce points. Kadri has a rope that is probably fairly long because the team wants to see what they have in him in a Babcock system, but i can guarantee you that rope is not endless. So far this year its more about the process than it is about results, when the team switches to result mode Kadri's production will not be acceptable.

 

[Ovate]

The obvious difference is Crosby has a massive history of leading, winning championships, being an elite sniper and setup man, so when he goes through a small slump, you'll give him the benefit of the doubt, when a guy who has never won anything at the pro level, never leaded his pro team and never scored at more than a pedestrian rate, goes through a major slump, he doesn't give the benefit of the doubt.

Kadri scored at more than double his current pace over a nearly 50 game stretch. He's scored 1.5x his current pace over a full season with Clarkson on his wing.

Crosby is a PPG+ player. Even if he was on pace for 60-70 points, you'd think he'd improve. Kadri is a 0.5PPG+ player. So when he's on pace for 31 points, you should also think he'll improve.

Especially given his 2.4S%, Kadri deserves the benefit of the doubt that he'll improve his production soon. Whether that looks like 40 points or 60 points remains to be seen, but it will go up. My guess is somewhere in the middle.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Instead of realizing the point he was trying to make was that even generational players can have scoring slumps and therefore production over a small sample size is not a great way to judge a player, you instead fall back to "comparisons aren't perfect and therefore they're worthless".

I know sample sizes quite well actually.

You are just hiding behind sample sizes .. seemingly pretending all is well in KadriLand.

Kadri is not producing under Babcock's system.
I hope he does improve ... but pretending not to worry is pretending.

This is the year he's supposed to bring it.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Mike Babcock Wants Nazem Kadri to Prove People Wrong (Summer 2015)

http://tipofthetower.com/2015/07/08/toronto-maple-leafs-mike-babcock-wants-nazem-kadri-bring/

Ooops. Proving everyone right that is for sure.

http://www.thescore.com/news/646559
Kadri's offensive insufficiency has been screaming loud all season. He has just five goals in 23 games and was dropped from his power-play unit. (was struggling last year too). And it's just worse this year.

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/07/06/don-cherry-on-leafs-nazem-kadri-he-must-do-well-or-hes-toast

Kadri is getting closer and closer to being Trade Bait.
Babcock is just being supportive of him to the media.

 

[The Apologist]

Kadri scored at more than double his current pace over a nearly 50 game stretch. He's scored 1.5x his current pace over a full season with Clarkson on his wing.

Crosby is a PPG+ player. Even if he was on pace for 60-70 points, you'd think he'd improve. Kadri is a 0.5PPG+ player. So when he's on pace for 31 points, you should also think he'll improve.

Especially given his 2.4S%, Kadri deserves the benefit of the doubt that he'll improve his production soon. Whether that looks like 40 points or 60 points remains to be seen, but it will go up. My guess is somewhere in the middle.

I dont think anyone here believes Nazem is going to stay on a 30 pt pace, but is a 40-50 pt pace really much better considering the changes in playing time, situations etc?

 

[Bluelines]

I dont think anyone here believes Nazem is going to stay on a 30 pt pace, but is a 40-50 pt pace really much better considering the changes in playing time, situations etc?

Kadri currently scores a point in 39% of his games, to score 50 points for the season he would have to increase that to a point in 69% of his remaining games. Not impossible but he would have to have a serious uptick in his rate of production. he would have to score at a 56 point pace to hit 50, not impossible by any means but considering his best season ever was 50 points in a run an gun system and this year he is playing a much more defensively structured system, I'd say 50 points is improbable.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Kadri currently scores a point in 39% of his games, to score 50 points for the season he would have to increase that to a point in 69% of his remaining games. Not impossible but he would have to have a serious uptick in his rate of production. he would have to score at a 56 point pace to hit 50, not impossible by any means but considering his best season ever was 50 points in a run an gun system and this year he is playing a much more defensively structured system, I'd say 50 points is improbable.

Unfortunately (for Kadri), most GMs and coaches will want a defensively responsible center who can point up points. Kadri has been one or other so far in his career, but so far, not both.

 

[Suntouchable13]

There is nothing about his play that screams "untouchable" to me. Nothing that screams "must re-sign". He is just not that good. I don't like him. Something about him rubs me the wrong way. I hope he's not a part of the future. But I guess it's a sin around these parts to say that.

 

[Durrr]

Your analogy is perfect. Thanks.

Kadri == Crosby.

If I had a gif of something flying over someones head I would use it here. So just imagine it.

 

[Durrr]

Kadri currently scores a point in 39% of his games, to score 50 points for the season he would have to increase that to a point in 69% of his remaining games. Not impossible but he would have to have a serious uptick in his rate of production. he would have to score at a 56 point pace to hit 50, not impossible by any means but considering his best season ever was 50 points in a run an gun system and this year he is playing a much more defensively structured system, I'd say 50 points is improbable.

Huh???? Multi point games exist The 50 point pace is 12-13 points right now, and he has 8, hardly improbable for him to catch pace. The math you did there doesn't really reveal anything unless were assuming that all he can get is a single point a night, which is false.

Also, his best season was a 75 point pace, even though everyone chooses to ignore it. I personally don't think he's going to hit 50+ this season (I don't think a single player will besides maybe JVR), but pretending that it is improbable at this point is pretty far fetched, as one or two multi point nights puts him almost right back on pace.

 

[Ovate]

I dont think anyone here believes Nazem is going to stay on a 30 pt pace, but is a 40-50 pt pace really much better considering the changes in playing time, situations etc?

A 50 point pace with solid defensive play, gaining the O-zone, faceoff wins, and drawing penalties is all I want out of a 2C. He's doing all of that except the 50 point pace right now.

On one hand he's getting more ice time, but on the other he's being used to match up with and shut down other team's best players.

 

[Gallagbi]

Huh???? Multi point games exist The 50 point pace is 12-13 points right now, and he has 8, hardly improbable for him to catch pace. The math you did there doesn't really reveal anything unless were assuming that all he can get is a single point a night, which is false.

I thought the same, it's a weird way to calculate. Why not use PPG?