Confirmed with Link: Julien Gauthier to NYR for Joey Keane

[vorbis]

two thoughts after a couple hours of perspective on this, one serious and one not so much.

1) Checkers gain a K with this trade, and that's not to be discounted. now the Checkers have 7 K's distributed among their 9 defensemen, which is an enviable ratio in any league.

2) it's pretty clear at this point that at long last the Canes have played their hand with Gauthier. with him being waiver eligible starting next season, this trade deadline was the first true inflection point in making long term decisions about his role in the organization. when I saw him play at the beginning of the month, it seemed obvious to me that he was finished proving himself at the AHL level. so it was time for him to move on up. well, the Canes were clearly not prepared to give him a steady role in Raleigh, so from that perspective, it's a perfectly logical time to trade him. next year, say he doesn't make the squad out of camp. now he's going on waivers, where I would assume he would pass through no problem, given how much traffic there is on waivers at that time. if he makes it through waivers next fall, then maybe he doesn't pull a Joey Keane in a trade. classic selling high on him.

I guess I still see a future where Gauthier can deliver 20ish goals per season on a regular basis in the NHL while providing a physical element on the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th line. so they really must think Keane has legit potential to cash in right now.

 

[My Special Purpose]

I really think that the Canes made this deal for Joey rather than against Julien. I mean, think of it this way: clearly the Canes must really, really like Keane to move Gauthier for him to a division rival right when we're about to play against them. From all the tape that I've watched of Keane on my admittedly highly-amateurish scouting skills via AHLTV, he's been incredibly impressive for a 20-year old in the AHL, especially in the puck-moving department, so I can see why this FO would salivate at getting him. Disregarding draft positions at the time, which basically is sunk cost, this deal could potentially have huge upside in Carolina's favor.

This logic just doesn't hold up. If so, then why did NYR make it?

There's simply no way the NYR are going to make this trade -- inside the division -- if they think there's *any* chance of Keane being an impact player. They have to be 100 percent certain they're not sending a potential all-star to a division rival, just like we would have to be in sending Gauthier the other way.

I'm convinced this is not about value. There's got to be something else. Maybe Gauthier demanded a trade (but that still rings hollow, because there are other deals that I'm certain could have been made), maybe it's about expansion protection, maybe a potential trade partner mentioned they covet Keane, I don't know. But I suspect Priskie, Kaski or Keane have been asked about in a trade.

But this is a very dangerous deal within the division *for both clubs* if either player hits their ceiling.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

This logic just doesn't hold up. If so, then why did NYR make it?

There's simply no way the NYR are going to make this trade -- inside the division -- if they think there's *any* chance of Keane being an impact player. They have to be 100 percent certain they're not sending a potential all-star to a division rival, just like we would have to be in sending Gauthier the other way.

I'm convinced this is not about value. There's got to be something else. Maybe Gauthier demanded a trade (but that still rings hollow, because there are other deals that I'm certain could have been made), maybe it's about expansion protection, maybe a potential trade partner mentioned they covet Keane, I don't know. But I suspect Priskie, Kaski or Keane have been asked about in a trade.

But this is a very dangerous deal within the division *for both clubs* if either player hits their ceiling.

Or maybe, just maybe, Carolina's petitioning to be moved out of the Metro, and the Rangers know this.

 

[Lempo]

But this is a very dangerous deal within the division *for both clubs* if either player hits their ceiling.

In the economics that would be just as acceptable as both trading a known thing.

 

[Canes]

In the present situation, I wonder if Charlotte moves one of their RHD to their off-side and play something like this:

Bean-McKeown
Kaski-Keane
Forsling-Priskie
Claesson

Kaski on his off-side with his one-timer could be quite an interesting experiment. Maybe Warsofsky could also test one of their RHDs on the wing.

That's insane depth for an AHL team. Claesson didn't look too out of place in preseason and now he might be the extra on the AHL squad.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Upon reflection, I am very surprised that neither Gauthier nor Roy ended up playing for this team.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I’m just not sure what the organization is looking for.

Assuming Aho, TT, Svech and Necas are the base of our forward corps going into the future, that leaves two Top 6 spots and a bunch of bottom 6 spots. I’m guessing they’re banking on free agency to fill in most of those spots, with Charlotte providing a Bottom 6er here and there. Because otherwise, constantly trading away offense for defensive prospects makes little sense.

Assuming Dougie, Slavin, Pesce are the base of our defensive corps going forward, that leaves 1 Top 4 spot and a bottom pairing to fill out. We’ve got so many defensive prospects now that could all reasonably play in that remaining Top 4 spot, not even bringing up the bottom pairing. But will they be given that chance, or will we go for FA? And even still, at least two of these great defensive prospects aren’t making the cut.

Meanwhile, our goaltending is up in the air and has been since Ward left (and even a bit before). We’re really banking on Ned, but I haven’t heard/seen anything that makes me believe he’s got future NHL starter on the horizon. One would think the glut of defensive prospects we have would be used to address that issue.

 

[NYSPORTS]

Honestly, what do you guys think of Gautheier?

why couldn’t he crack your lineup?

 

[MinJaBen]

Honestly, what do you guys think of Gautheier?

why couldn’t he crack your lineup?

He has a lot of good tools: size, strength, speed, shot. The knock on him from the start was his ability to use his teammates and play in his own zone without the puck. He's certainly improved on those issues, but not quite enough to displace the guys up on the Canes who got there from their excellent 2-way play. He was very close in camp this year. Probably outplayed Necas in camp, but ultimately they chose Necas over him.

 

[bleedgreen]

Rod didnt trust him. That's why he's gone. He clearly couldve been useful. If he scores at any decent clip at all with the Rangers it'll be a bit painful. Even if Keane makes it.

Is Keane any more likely to play for Rod than Goat? If Bean can't get a chance why will this guy?

 

[bleedgreen]

Honestly, what do you guys think of Gautheier?

why couldn’t he crack your lineup?

He has hands but he couldnt score in preseason, although he outhustled everyone. Our coach is finicky and definitely prefers defensive minded vets. He likes guys like Mckegg on the fourth line. Kids are having a hard time breaking in with Rod. Forwards have to score right away to overcome any defensive liabilities, or be completely defensive minded it seems.

Goat's ceiling always seemed to be third line, likely a tweener between the third and fourth. He needs space to do things with the puck, he's too big and despite being straight line fast he's a bit awkward. Not a lot of lateral agility, which isnt surprising given his size. Great in the slot and around the net.

I think we were shopping him all season after he was pissed he didnt make the team. He mightve even asked for this for all we know. We were waiting for a return we like, hopefully Keane is worth it.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I'm always a little tickled when the "he's earned it" talk comes out. We don't really know what he earned. If we mean he produced goals at a great rate at the AHL level, sure. If we instead told him to improve his ability to use teammates and play defense, and he's still the same player in that regard when I've watched him at both levels, perhaps he didn't really earn anything? I honestly don't know what he's earned. He may prove to be amazing with the Rangers. Of course, that don't mean he was the right fit for us.

The only mild concern I would have is the perception of guys not earning a chance, but we have integrated a number of Charlotte guys (Foegele, Necas, Wallmark, Fleury now to an extent) on the team since the beginning of last season, so it may only be perception.

 

[Helsinki Hurricanes]

A lot of great takes on this thread. What I have found underdiscussed is the timing. I would have thought a prospect for prospect hockey trade would have been done during the off-season.

Is there any chance Canes were interested in Kreider, Skjei, Georgiev and during the talks they scratched the bigger trade and went with this prospect trade.

Funny thing is that despite not knowing who this kid was before this evening, there are some NYR and neutral fans who believe Canes won the value. It is clear Rangers won the fit part, they had too many young RHDs and had no opening for Keane. Logically, NHL or AHL RHD trade would follow to free up space. That would mean either TVR or McKeown.

Funny thing is that the new data boys have purged basically all Francis prospects. Bean and Fleury left I guess.

 

[bleedgreen]

Turning Goat into an expansion exempt guy on the rise instead of a guy who needs a spot pretty much now likely played a role in Keane being the choice.

Buys us some time to find a way to get this kid into the lineup.

 

[Vagrant]

i haven't read any reception to this trade from anyone, but this is a move that i like. not because i think gauthier is a scrub after having pumped his tires for a long time, but we've developed a history of doing this and being right about it. when we have guys that are struggling between levels, we're moving out of them before their value diminishes and capitalizing on that. we've done it with nic roy, saarela, zykov, etc. veteran production in the ahl isn't always an indicator of development and our group has been pretty on the nose about internal scouting. at various points, we thought all of those players were an answer to our roster concerns and on every case we were proven wrong. all of those players have had various flameouts or are stuck between levels the same as they were here. this group has earned the right to be wrong if they are.

keane is at a more premium position, obviously, and his skillset is undeniable. he posted a sub 13.5 lap at the fastest skater competition in the ahl, which is stupid fast. faster than mackinnon, kreider, eichel, quinn hughes, etc. from the nhl version. it would have been good enough for 3rd behind barzal and mcdavid. mcdavid only just edged him. so the speed is unquestionable. but the speed is useless without the ability to have it play in games, and keane has that element to his game. to be posting the numbers he is as a first year pro is just ridiculous. the unexpected element is that in junior, he played comfortably inside a structure that was more risk averse and his numbers were never jump off the page. when he arrived to camp with the rangers, they liked him so much that he kept hanging around during training camp, so the fact that the numbers match the eye test is encouraging. it's also a testament to his ability to adapt when asked to play a more offensive style. there are certain guys that are always going to default to being defensively responsible over their own personal stats if they get the feeling that's what the coach wants and then experience a renaissance at the next level when they arrive. keane will look to take his momentum to the next level where we are collecting toolsy prospects on the blueline with regularity. this is, in my opinion, another step in the direction of positionless hockey. just creating a lineup of raw skill where you don't lose anything offensively and can have a free flowing five man attack where all players can contribute in the offensive end of the ice. we are showing an increased willingness to take on these type of prospects. kaski, keane, fensore, honka, priskie.... there's a clear theme. the good thing is that you only need exactly one of these players to hit the top end of their upside to justify the assets that we've sunk into that group. kaski was basically free. keane cost gauthier. fensore the 90th overall pick, honka even lower. priskie as a udfa. so the cost for getting five deep with offensive defensemen prospects with elite upside cost us gauthier, wood, and 2 mid round picks. compared to the potential impact that this type of player can have, that's a modest price by anyone's standards.

the encouraging thing is that its clear that the team has a vision based on analytics that they are not abandoning and continue to invest in moving forward. they're getting enough bullets as well that if they lose a man they don't want to lose in the expansion draft they have options to cover their ass. it seems to me like the general belief is that you draft forwards early and you throw darts on defensemen later in the draft. that appears to be our formula and it's hard to argue. this move is consistent with those values.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

A lot of great takes on this thread. What I have found underdiscussed is the timing. I would have thought a prospect for prospect hockey trade would have been done during the off-season.

Is there any chance Canes were interested in Kreider, Skjei, Georgiev and during the talks they scratched the bigger trade and went with this prospect trade.

Funny thing is that despite not knowing who this kid was before this evening, there are some NYR and neutral fans who believe Canes won the value. It is clear Rangers won the fit part, they had too many young RHDs and had no opening for Keane. Logically, NHL or AHL RHD trade would follow to free up space. That would mean either TVR or McKeown.

Funny thing is that the new data boys have purged basically all Francis prospects. Bean and Fleury left I guess.

Timing-wise I think Gauthier, stylistically speaking, is a good rest of the season tryout/stopgap type player to replace Kreider. It makes a lot of sense for NYR in what looks like it’ll be a lost rest of the season to try some kids.

 

[bleedgreen]

I'm always a little tickled when the "he's earned it" talk comes out. We don't really know what he earned. If we mean he produced goals at a great rate at the AHL level, sure. If we instead told him to improve his ability to use teammates and play defense, and he's still the same player in that regard when I've watched him at both levels, perhaps he didn't really earn anything? I honestly don't know what he's earned. He may prove to be amazing with the Rangers. Of course, that don't mean he was the right fit for us.

The only mild concern I would have is the perception of guys not earning a chance, but we have integrated a number of Charlotte guys (Foegele, Necas, Wallmark, Fleury now to an extent) on the team since the beginning of last season, so it may only be perception.

Foegele had a spot sewn up before that camp happened imo, and we were short grinders on the third and fourth line. He had a great audition at the end of the previous season, then Charlotte won it all. He was an obvious candidate for a role player spot, then he scored enough early to play higher up for awhile. That was the only surprise about Foegele. He didn’t beat a vet out, they left that spot for a rookie.

Rask got hurt which left us short centers when we were short one anyway after Ryan left, we had little choice but to play Wallmark. Then Staal got hurt and he earned more time. The Haula trade was designed to move Wallmark back down the lineup because he didn’t belong as high as he was. He didn’t beat out a veteran though, we were short at least one if not two centers. Wallmark is also a defense first, second and third guy. Especially last year. One of the ways to get Rod to like you.

Necas was kept in the minors for expansion purposes and some seasoning, he didn’t even earn it in camp this season. He’s our top prospect that was always going to play whether Rod liked it or not. He didn’t beat out a vet, he got special treatment for being the stud prospect. This is the kind of young player that Rod will play.

Fleury has only played due to Hamilton’s injury.

Has any rookie beat out a vet for a spot that was available? I don’t think so. Rod flat out said that TVR got the spot over Fleury coming out of camp last year because TVR was a veteran who hadn’t done anything wrong and he wasn’t going to sit him even though Fleury had played at least as well. He lost a year of development because of that, after being top six the year before. Rookies move up when there’s a hole that needs to be filled internally due to injuries or player movement. It’s greatly preferable if they’re defense first. Unless they’re as good as Necas or Svech.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

i haven't read any reception to this trade from anyone, but this is a move that i like. not because i think gauthier is a scrub after having pumped his tires for a long time, but we've developed a history of doing this and being right about it. when we have guys that are struggling between levels, we're moving out of them before their value diminishes and capitalizing on that. we've done it with nic roy, saarela, zykov, etc. veteran production in the ahl isn't always an indicator of development and our group has been pretty on the nose about internal scouting. at various points, we thought all of those players were an answer to our roster concerns and on every case we were proven wrong. all of those players have had various flameouts or are stuck between levels the same as they were here. this group has earned the right to be wrong if they are.

keane is at a more premium position, obviously, and his skillset is undeniable. he posted a sub 13.5 lap at the fastest skater competition in the ahl, which is stupid fast. faster than mackinnon, kreider, eichel, quinn hughes, etc. from the nhl version. it would have been good enough for 3rd behind barzal and mcdavid. mcdavid only just edged him. so the speed is unquestionable. but the speed is useless without the ability to have it play in games, and keane has that element to his game. to be posting the numbers he is as a first year pro is just ridiculous. the unexpected element is that in junior, he played comfortably inside a structure that was more risk averse and his numbers were never jump off the page. when he arrived to camp with the rangers, they liked him so much that he kept hanging around during training camp, so the fact that the numbers match the eye test is encouraging. it's also a testament to his ability to adapt when asked to play a more offensive style. there are certain guys that are always going to default to being defensively responsible over their own personal stats if they get the feeling that's what the coach wants and then experience a renaissance at the next level when they arrive. keane will look to take his momentum to the next level where we are collecting toolsy prospects on the blueline with regularity. this is, in my opinion, another step in the direction of positionless hockey. just creating a lineup of raw skill where you don't lose anything offensively and can have a free flowing five man attack where all players can contribute in the offensive end of the ice. we are showing an increased willingness to take on these type of prospects. kaski, keane, fensore, honka, priskie.... there's a clear theme. the good thing is that you only need exactly one of these players to hit the top end of their upside to justify the assets that we've sunk into that group. kaski was basically free. keane cost gauthier. fensore the 90th overall pick, honka even lower. priskie as a udfa. so the cost for getting five deep with offensive defensemen prospects with elite upside cost us gauthier, wood, and 2 mid round picks. compared to the potential impact that this type of player can have, that's a modest price by anyone's standards.

the encouraging thing is that its clear that the team has a vision based on analytics that they are not abandoning and continue to invest in moving forward. they're getting enough bullets as well that if they lose a man they don't want to lose in the expansion draft they have options to cover their ass. it seems to me like the general belief is that you draft forwards early and you throw darts on defensemen later in the draft. that appears to be our formula and it's hard to argue. this move is consistent with those values.

This is an interesting take that makes me feel somewhat better.

Still, I was looking forward to having a guy in the forward corps that could really lay people out. That's an element we have lacked, and now still lack.

 

[NotOpie]

Bokk, Geekie, Puistola, Tieksola, even Slepets, Filipe, and Killinen. Something was going to have to give eventually there.

And that's not even including Rees who I think is going to be a wing in the league but can play all 3 forward positions.

Well with Mattheos returning from injury, a guy the organization seemingly was very high on, and Geekie's later season resurgence, I don't think the Checkers will suffer much. The question is right shot forwards and/or big body forwards who can skate.

To me, this might be a precursor to make a big push to get Cotton into Charlotte. While not a right shot, he may satisfy some of the void left down there with the Gauthier departure...and the organization can spin it as, "...we made room for you".

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Happy for him that he may finally be free from the prospect prison they have going on down there.

Somehow, Necas, Foegele, and Wallmark escaped they prison, even on one of the youngest teams in the league.

The last guy to complain about the prospect “prison”, was Saarela and come to find out, Chicago didn’t want him and Florida put him right back in the AHL.

Carrick? Ahler in San Jose.
Saarela? Ahler in Florida
Poturalski? Ahler in San Diego
Roy? Back in the AHL in Chicago (vgn)
Brown? Ahler in Chicago.
Jurco? Yep, AHL.


Maybe these guys aren’t in “prospect prison”, maybe they aren’t as good as we like to think or the Canes know better than we do how long they need to percolate.

 

[Tawnos]

Rangers fan here living in Charlotte who has seen Gauthier several time for the Checkers and he’s always stood out. But one thing I can’t remember at all.

Was he killing penalties for the Checkers?

 

[bleedgreen]

Well with Mattheos returning from injury, a guy the organization seemingly was very high on, and Geekie's later season resurgence, I don't think the Checkers will suffer much. The question is right shot forwards and/or big body forwards who can skate.

To me, this might be a precursor to make a big push to get Cotton into Charlotte. While not a right shot, he may satisfy some of the void left down there with the Gauthier departure...and the organization can spin it as, "...we made room for you".

I think Geekie effectively replaced Goat as the resident guy with size that’s on the radar to make it someday. He’s a far more versatile player from the get go.

 

[The Faulker 27]

Somehow, Necas, Foegele, and Wallmark escaped they prison, even on one of the youngest teams in the league.

The last guy to complain about the prospect “prison”, was Saarela and come to find out, Chicago didn’t want him and Florida put him right back in the AHL.

Carrick? Ahler in San Jose.
Saarela? Ahler in Florida
Poturalski? Ahler in San Diego
Roy? Back in the AHL in Chicago (vgn)
Brown? Ahler in Chicago.
Jurco? Yep, AHL.


Maybe these guys aren’t in “prospect prison”, maybe they aren’t as good as we like to think or the Canes know better than we do how long they need to percolate.

It just shows how hard it is to crack the NHL as a regular. We knock on our medley of bottom 6ers but these are some of the best hockey players in the world.

 

[HisIceness]

Rangers fan here living in Charlotte who has seen Gauthier several time for the Checkers and he’s always stood out. But one thing I can’t remember at all.

Was he killing penalties for the Checkers?

I don't remember him doing so.

@Unsustainable ?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Foegele had a spot sewn up before that camp happened imo, and we were short grinders on the third and fourth line. He had a great audition at the end of the previous season, then Charlotte won it all. He was an obvious candidate for a role player spot, then he scored enough early to play higher up for awhile. That was the only surprise about Foegele. He didn’t beat a vet out, they left that spot for a rookie.

Rask got hurt which left us short centers when we were short one anyway after Ryan left, we had little choice but to play Wallmark. Then Staal got hurt and he earned more time. The Haula trade was designed to move Wallmark back down the lineup because he didn’t belong as high as he was. He didn’t beat out a veteran though, we were short at least one if not two centers. Wallmark is also a defense first, second and third guy. Especially last year. One of the ways to get Rod to like you.

Necas was kept in the minors for expansion purposes and some seasoning, he didn’t even earn it in camp this season. He’s our top prospect that was always going to play whether Rod liked it or not. He didn’t beat out a vet, he got special treatment for being the stud prospect. This is the kind of young player that Rod will play.

Fleury has only played due to Hamilton’s injury.

Has any rookie beat out a vet for a spot that was available? I don’t think so. Rod flat out said that TVR got the spot over Fleury coming out of camp last year because TVR was a veteran who hadn’t done anything wrong and he wasn’t going to sit him even though Fleury had played at least as well. He lost a year of development because of that, after being top six the year before. Rookies move up when there’s a hole that needs to be filled internally due to injuries or player movement. It’s greatly preferable if they’re defense first. Unless they’re as good as Necas or Svech.

All true, but in fairness, it's been a long time since we've had "legit" NHLrs throughout the line-up that need to be "beat out". Beating out Brent, Conboy, Bayda (later years), Nestrasil, Brookbank, Bowman, etc.. isn't any big feat. Warts and all, having Haula and Dzingel on our 3rd line and Martinook, Williams/McGinn on the 4th line makes it exceedingly more difficult to beat out a vet for a spot.

For years, we lamented about rushing guys and wanting the "Detroit" model where we let guys percolate until they are ready. Now that guys are percolating, many seem not to like it.

I have no problems with how Rod is operating. He's shown he'll play young guys as needed and when he does, he'll give them important minutes. But he also expects certain things and if the young guy doesn't do those things, he won't play.