Player Discussion Josh Norris C 6’1”
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Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
I'd rank the pieces in that order :
1) 1st in 2020 (if EK don't extend with them, which I have a feeling he won't, that pick could be in the lotto as I think this team is about to decline)
2) Rudolf Balcers
3) Josh Norris
4) Chris Tierney
5) 2nd in 2019 (highest one from SJ or Florida)
6) Conditional 2nd (if EK extends), possible additional 1st (if they reach the SCF in 2019), which could end up lotto too
7) Dylan Demelo (maybe ~6th round pick value)
8) Conditional 1st (if they trade EK back to the East) : this one have very little value because it won't happen. Sharks will make sure to not trade him to an Eastern team if they have to trade him. They can't afford to lose another 1st on top of a 1st that could be lotto, 2 of their best prospects, a 2nd and Tierney just for a rental that wouldn't go in the playoffs with them.
That's a pretty big haul for a rental. What is sad is we had to trade EK as a rental, instead of keeping him as a core piece or at the very least trade him when you have a team he'd agree to sign an extension with. Also hate the fact that there was no D-man prospect coming back. Need that a lot more of that than more good/decent forward prospects, which we already have a ton of IMO.
Sharks went all in but if EK walks, it could turn out pretty bad for them.
1) 1st in 2020 (if EK don't extend with them, which I have a feeling he won't, that pick could be in the lotto as I think this team is about to decline)
2) Rudolf Balcers
3) Josh Norris
4) Chris Tierney
5) 2nd in 2019 (highest one from SJ or Florida)
6) Conditional 2nd (if EK extends), possible additional 1st (if they reach the SCF in 2019), which could end up lotto too
7) Dylan Demelo (maybe ~6th round pick value)
8) Conditional 1st (if they trade EK back to the East) : this one have very little value because it won't happen. Sharks will make sure to not trade him to an Eastern team if they have to trade him. They can't afford to lose another 1st on top of a 1st that could be lotto, 2 of their best prospects, a 2nd and Tierney just for a rental that wouldn't go in the playoffs with them.
That's a pretty big haul for a rental. What is sad is we had to trade EK as a rental, instead of keeping him as a core piece or at the very least trade him when you have a team he'd agree to sign an extension with. Also hate the fact that there was no D-man prospect coming back. Need that a lot more of that than more good/decent forward prospects, which we already have a ton of IMO.
Sharks went all in but if EK walks, it could turn out pretty bad for them.
TheBradyBunch
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- Dec 17, 2008
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Well, the way people are talking about him this might be the best outcome, no? If he has 3rd line upside, a 50 OV pick might be more valuable. Last 1st round player to pull that was Blake Wheeler, IIRC.
Anyways, I would bet anything that you're wrong. He will be stoked on the opportunity to play with Brady and he will have a clear path to top 9 minutes. Players and fans have wholly very different concerns.
FolignoQuantumLeap
Don't Hold The Door
I'd agree with that ranking except flip Tierney and Norris. Tierney is basically Norris' ceiling so I'll take the 24 year old who's hit their potential over the one who hasn't.
The don godfather
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Finally someone agrees with me. Dorion did good here. Not great but decent. Enough of the pitchforks. Karlsson will walk at seasons end. Cup or bust for sharks period.
He'd have to stay in college 3 more years to become a UFA. Don't think that will happen.
TheBradyBunch
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- Dec 17, 2008
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Agreed, although I think Tierney has some untapped scoring upside. Tierney was 10th amongst SJ forwards in PPTOI and 4th amongst fwds in ES + SH points. He also started over 20% in the defensive zone on PP. I think he will be given every opportunity to play PP for us and as he gets more comfortable, his playmaking ability will shine through. In that scenario, I think he could be a consistent 45-55 point guy.
The don godfather
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Yep and the gravy is how norris and balcers develop and the goodies the first round and second round pick bring. Good start to the rebuild.
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Statistically he did though I'm not sure you'll find many in the scouting community who hold Bowers ahead of Norris.
FolignoQuantumLeap
Don't Hold The Door
Would you be able to find any examples of this? I couldn't find anything. Bowers is generally ranked ahead of Norris in what I'm finding.
TheBradyBunch
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Pronman seemingly has Norris ahead of Bowers, but I can't really find any list that has either of them actually ranked. I cant find it now, but I actually read that the Sens allegedly were hoping for Norris to be available at 28 and settled on Bowers when that was not the case.
Anyways, I'm not arguing anything here. I doubt there will be a very discernible difference between the two.
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Sens of Anarchy
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If the Sens were magically gifted Norris.. I would be really happy. He will be a decent player. Based on what I have seen.. I would project a good 3C.. I like the way he plays .. I see some Mike Fisher in him.. He can skate fast, good agility ,shoot, plays a 200 ft game and doesn't shy away from the physical board play. I have no problem with players like that. He is a C . Maybe he'll be between guys like White and Chlapik going forward. When we look at how the Sens are being run.. and we look at the EK trade return.. we (many if not most) are unhappy.. that has noting to do with Norris. I welcome him as another good prospect to the team. Some of the guys ranked ahead of him may or may not turn out as good as we think either.
The don godfather
Registered User
I'm gonna put my trust in sens scouts and dorion that this kid can play. He was picked in the mid first round even the sharks saw talent . That's all you can ask when your picking prospects.
Sharks have been one of the worst teams at drafting in the 1st round in recent years.
Took Norris over Thomas/Vesalainen
Took Meier over Rantanen/Connor
Took Goldobin over Kempe/Demko
Took Mueller over Mantha/Burakovsky
I wouldn't put much stock into the fact they took Norris mid-1st. Probably should have went in the 25-30 range in 2017 just like Bowers.
Sens of Anarchy
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McKenzie had Norris 23 and Bowers 32 in his 2017 final rankings. I think Norris was the higher profile prospect. Statistically Bowers had a better year at BU than Norris did at Michigan but I would have look at their ice time , line mates , opportunities and utilization before making any kind of judgement based on that. I would think they are pretty equal ..but maybe Bowers just took another step earlier than what Norris did as well.
2017 NHL draft do-over: Panel of scouts, execs and GMs redo the first round
This was done at the end of March from a panel of 11 scouts/execs/GMs. Both guys dropped but Norris remained ahead of Bowers.
Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
I'd agree with that although still very hard to say what Norris ceiling is, still very young
Anyway, we have to hope that the Sharks miss the playoffs at least once in the next 2 years. Hoping that Balcers game translate well to the NHL as well, potential is there
Well I wouldn't say that Dorion did "good" here but in a vaccum, that return for what would be EK as a "rental" is fine. BUT, there is still several other problems with the trade IMO :
- trading EK, "face of the franchise", beloved by most except maybe Melnyk, ticket seller and captain.
- trading EK when you could have him as part of the core going forward (Karlsson, Chabot, Duchene, Stone), and with the quality of young talent about to join the team, you could have had a consistent playoffs team and possibly a contender in no time. You want to rebuild? fine, but those 4 guys are young enough to be part of it.
- trading EK at the worst timing possible. Deadline before training camp? You don't put a deadline on that kind of trade, should have been trade deadline instead, where you could have gotten a similar package, maybe more.
- trading EK as a "rental" when you should absolutely wait for him to agree extending with a team. It's not like Heatley or even Spezza that you had to trade because their trade demands were made public. All we've seen from Karlsson is that he really wanted to stay.
- trading EK with only young forwards and picks coming back. Acquiring DeMelo doesn't accomplish anything for the defense.
- trading EK because you are going full rebuild. Problem is you don't have your 1st next year. You have to give yourself the chance to have the best season as possible, at least until the trade deadline. Absolutely no point "tanking". Thing is I believe outside of this year, the team won't be bad enough (because of all the young talent coming up) to get high 1st picks... So again, what is the point in going "full rebuild"?
And the biggest jump seems to be Drake Batherson
From that re-draft :
Batherson (121st) ---> 26th
Formenton (47th) ---> 33rd
Great value picks. Transformed our mid second and 4th round picks in a late first and early second.
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PatrikBerglund
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- May 29, 2017
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The main piece is probably the knowledge that Melnyk will lose huge sums of money, due to fans having had enough of him now.
If losing Karlsson means that Melnyk is also gone in the near future, it might actually be a loss worth while. Especially since there was no promises of Karlsson re-signing with Ottawa anyway.
I don't think of Norris as even in the top 3 of main pieces. Recent 1st rounders have value but if we're predicting future NHL success I would take the three players above him as being better chances of being players. This is nothing against Norris but just that there is a lot of uncertainty in terms of translating from NCAA to the NHL when you have middling stats. Here's hoping for a good year from him this year.
Otherwise, people are too high on draft picks in general and this seems to be a pervasive issue in the NHL management world as well. You often see actual NHL players traded for 4ths or 5ths which is quite interesting because those players have about a 1/20 chance of being better than the players they're actually getting traded for in many cases. If all goes well we would be happy if Norris turned out to be a player like Tierney or maybe a slightly better version. That's a lot of potential risk compared to the actual thing. Balcers has actually scored in the AHL - that puts him above the NCAA prospect. Demelo is an actual NHL player - Norris still has a chance he busts.
Main piece:
(1) Tierney (actual 3rd line C)
(2) Balcers (AHL scorer; potentially top 9 scoring winger)
(3) Demelo (actual 6th D)
(4) Norris (potentially 3rd line C prospect) / Draft picks (depending on position but anything after 20 is unlikely to be a better asset than Tierney/Balcers based on probability at least. There is an argument to be made that draft picks have differences in inherent value on good drafting teams versus bad drafting teams.)
DJB
Registered User
This was and is the only positive I see from the trade, add in I hope to see him gone, a few imo bottom 6 forwards and 3rd pairing dmen (we could currently field 5 or 6 4th lines and 5 or 6 bottom dpairs) and likely late picks doesn't move the needle for me personally because those are the guys you would normally add to skill which we don't have much left of.
I've read pretty much everything there is to read about Norris in the past week
on the middling stats - that is clearly circumstance driven in a situation where he joined a veteran team and as a freshman had limited opportunity in a scoring role. With much better opportunity this year with some big vets having moved on, if his stats don't improve it'll be time to get nervous
with him I keep coming back to him playing the WJC at 18. The American program has been as strong as ours this decade and if a kid plays on either team at 18 the odds of going on to a successful nhl career are quite high.
if you look at Bowers by comparison his NCAA stats were more impressive but I don't believe he even garnered an invite to one of the camps. The NCAA stats favour Bowers but when we go bestie on bestie, Norris makes Team USA and Bowers by virtue of not even having been invited would not have made Team Canada team B.
BondraTime
Registered User
The US world junior team, like the Canadian junior team, have some biases and routes that make is easier to make that plays very, very largely in Norris' favour.
With Norris, he went through the USNTDP at every level from the time he was 14-17, and then moved onto the NCAA. This plays a big factor for the US junior team as 70+% of their teams generally come from this program.
Bowers bypassed the CHL and CJHL for the USHL as a 16 and 17 year old, and then moved onto the NCAA at 18. Canadian world junior team goes to the CHL (Fabbro and Makar only guys last year fro NCAA, only 3 guys invited to camp, both played in the Canadian Junior Hockey League prior to the NCAA) to form their team. 90+% of their teams generally come from the CHL.
Both will be on the WJ teams this year, I think that will be a better way to evaluate than saying one made it as an 18 year old and one never.
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