Player Discussion Josh Norris C 6’1”

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Boud

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Dec 27, 2011
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I've read pretty much everything there is to read about Norris in the past week

on the middling stats - that is clearly circumstance driven in a situation where he joined a veteran team and as a freshman had limited opportunity in a scoring role. With much better opportunity this year with some big vets having moved on, if his stats don't improve it'll be time to get nervous

with him I keep coming back to him playing the WJC at 18. The American program has been as strong as ours this decade and if a kid plays on either team at 18 the odds of going on to a successful nhl career are quite high.

if you look at Bowers by comparison his NCAA stats were more impressive but I don't believe he even garnered an invite to one of the camps. The NCAA stats favour Bowers but when we go bestie on bestie, Norris makes Team USA and Bowers by virtue of not even having been invited would not have made Team Canada team B.


Unfortunately when you start to look at things like that instead of looking at the players abilities it starts to get misleading and you start to overrate/underrate prospects based on things that they simply do not control. Almost like saying that Weber is a better player than Subban because Weber was playing top pair on Team Canada while Subban was left out on most nights. There are so many things that come into play here that it cannot be simplified as you just did. The coaching staff and management of the WJC teams make these selections based on many things, including style of play they are trying to achieve, maturity level of player, is that player adding a different element that other players do not add? and etc etc. Sometimes it can legitimately just be a preference thing by the management and coaching, for example Phil Kessel not making team USA while he's one of the best players in the world under pressure, or Marty St-Louis not making team Canada years back.

Bowers and Norris are clearly in the same tier of prospects and likely that both turn out to have similar impacts on an NHL roster IF everything goes right and their development is good. When you start comparing players by who got chosen to this event and who did not, you're doing it wrong.
 

JD1

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Sep 12, 2005
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Unfortunately when you start to look at things like that instead of looking at the players abilities it starts to get misleading and you start to overrate/underrate prospects based on things that they simply do not control. Almost like saying that Weber is a better player than Subban because Weber was playing top pair on Team Canada while Subban was left out on most nights. There are so many things that come into play here that it cannot be simplified as you just did. The coaching staff and management of the WJC teams make these selections based on many things, including style of play they are trying to achieve, maturity level of player, is that player adding a different element that other players do not add? and etc etc. Sometimes it can legitimately just be a preference thing by the management and coaching, for example Phil Kessel not making team USA while he's one of the best players in the world under pressure, or Marty St-Louis not making team Canada years back.

Bowers and Norris are clearly in the same tier of prospects and likely that both turn out to have similar impacts on an NHL roster IF everything goes right and their development is good. When you start comparing players by who got chosen to this event and who did not, you're doing it wrong.

Ok.

come up with a list of 18 year Olds that played WJC for either team this decade that didn't play nhl.

then come up with a list of 19 year olds.

one list is easy. the other will take a long time to put together.

and Bowers is no guarantee this year
 

Benttheknee

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Jun 18, 2005
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Here is my ranking

Chris Tierney and NHL asset that has no risk
Josh Norris, could be a Tierney level player
1st in 2020, very similar to Norris
2nd in 2019
Dylan DeMelo can plan in the NHL in the bottom pair
Rudolf Balcers - AHL-NHL tweener ala Conacher
Conditional 2nd - Not likely
Conditional 1st - really unlikley
 

Boud

Registered User
Dec 27, 2011
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Ok.

come up with a list of 18 year Olds that played WJC for either team this decade that didn't play nhl.

then come up with a list of 19 year olds.

one list is easy. the other will take a long time to put together.

and Bowers is no guarantee this year


I mean first of all there's a big difference between having a "succesful NHL career" to take your words and "play in the NHL". Playing in the NHL is not the same thing as being successful.

Here's a list of guys that played in the WJC at 18 and that had less than memorable NHL careers:

Cody Hodgson (16pts in 6 games at WJC) - Canada
Jerry D'Amigo (12pts in 7 games) - USA
Anthony Stewart (11pts in 6 games) - Canada
Jordan Schroeder (11pts in 6 games) - USA
Jeremy Morin (7 pts in 7 games) - USA
Peter Mueller ( 6 pts in 7 games) - USA
Riley Barber (6 pts in 7 games) - USA
Rob Schremp (5 pts in 7 games) - USA
Nic Petan (5 pts in 7 games) - Canada
Kevin Porter (5 points in 7 games) - USA
Jamie Lundmark (5 pts in 7 games) - Canada
Ryan Hollweg (5 pts in 7 games) - USA
Quinton Howden (5 pts in 7 games) - Canada
Jack Skille ( 2 pts in 7 games) - Canada
Ryan Bourque ( 3pts in 7 games) - USA
Joe Hicketts (3pts in 7 games) - Canada
Patrick O'Sullivan ( 3 pts in 6 games) - USA
Hudson Fasching (4pts in 5 games) - USA
Rico Fata (4pts in 7 games) - Canada

All of these guys did not have a succesful NHL career or will not.

Then there is

Josh Norris (3 points in 7 games) - USA

There's no guarantee Norris will be a good player.
 

JD1

Registered User
Sep 12, 2005
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a lot of guys on that list were last decade

Hodgson wrecked his back in a training injury in Vancouver and was never the same....but Im guessing you know that

most from this decade played in the league for a few years

and a couple others are still quite young
 

BondraTime

Registered User
Nov 20, 2005
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last decade
Oh I know, was only commenting that he was a Sen.

Only guys I can think of off the top of my head from the States are Kristo, Fashching, Bourque, D'Amigo and Grimaldi from the years 2010-15, any tournaments after that and the guys are in their 1st year pro.

He's an NHLer for sure, the same way that White and Bowers will be; just won't be a top 6 guy. (I'm using my own opinions obviously, nothing quantifiable :laugh: )
 
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Agent Zub

Registered User
Jan 2, 2015
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Ok.

come up with a list of 18 year Olds that played WJC for either team this decade that didn't play nhl.

then come up with a list of 19 year olds.

one list is easy. the other will take a long time to put together.

and Bowers is no guarantee this year


So how good do you think Josh Norris is going to be?
 

JD1

Registered User
Sep 12, 2005
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So how good do you think Josh Norris is going to be?
I think a few years out we'll be talking about centre being a strength with Norris as part of that discussion

I think his ceiling is low end 2C points wise, high end 2C two way wise.
 
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danielpalfredsson

youtube dot com /watch?v=CdqMZ_s7Y6k
Aug 14, 2013
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Here is my ranking

Chris Tierney and NHL asset that has no risk
Josh Norris, could be a Tierney level player
1st in 2020, very similar to Norris
2nd in 2019
Dylan DeMelo can plan in the NHL in the bottom pair
Rudolf Balcers - AHL-NHL tweener ala Conacher
Conditional 2nd - Not likely
Conditional 1st - really unlikley

I think the first is the most valuable asset just because of the small chance that if EK leaves, SJS could miss the playoffs in 2020. If by some long shot they miss this year, we get that pick instead.

Balcers probably has a higher ceiling than Norris. Norris' athletic ability is intriguing though.

After seeing more of Balcers, it seems like both Balcers and Tierney are more valuable than the 2nd. We can probably get a 2nd+ for Tierney two years from now if we can't or won't pay him.

Demelo is the least valuable asset I think. Basically a throw in depth player.
 
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BonHoonLayneCornell

Registered User
Oct 16, 2006
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Yukon
I think the first is the most valuable asset just because of the small chance that if EK leaves, SJS could miss the playoffs in 2020. If by some long shot they miss this year, we get that pick instead.

Balcers probably has a higher ceiling than Norris. Norris' athletic ability is intriguing though.

After seeing more of Balcers, it seems like both Balcers and Tierney are more valuable than the 2nd. We can probably get a 2nd+ for Tierney two years from now if we can't or won't pay him.

Demelo is the least valuable asset I think. Basically a throw in depth player.
Can we get anything for DeMelo at this point?

Seems he's already being passed on the depth chart and he hasn't even played a game yet.
 

HSF

Registered User
Sep 3, 2008
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let Demelo play some more regular season games jeez.

I get it he doesn't look decent and I personally think he will be a bottom pairing guy but atleast give the guy some regular season games before dumping all over him. Methot wasn't that great on CBJ and turned into a top pairing favourite here.
 

branch

#GirlBoss #Vibes
Jan 12, 2008
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let Demelo play some more regular season games jeez.

I get it he doesn't look decent and I personally think he will be a bottom pairing guy but atleast give the guy some regular season games before dumping all over him. Methot wasn't that great on CBJ and turned into a top pairing favourite here.
It's hard to look bad when you have the partner here that Methot did.

DeMelo will be playing with another bottom pairing D. He'll be waived this year for sure.
 

BonHoonLayneCornell

Registered User
Oct 16, 2006
15,351
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Yukon
let Demelo play some more regular season games jeez.

I get it he doesn't look decent and I personally think he will be a bottom pairing guy but atleast give the guy some regular season games before dumping all over him. Methot wasn't that great on CBJ and turned into a top pairing favourite here.
Not dumping on him. I thought he looked fine, just very average like the rest of our D, so if we have to move someone to make room he could be a candidate.
 

Sens of Anarchy

Registered User
Jul 9, 2013
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The US world junior team, like the Canadian junior team, have some biases and routes that make is easier to make that plays very, very largely in Norris' favour.

With Norris, he went through the USNTDP at every level from the time he was 14-17, and then moved onto the NCAA. This plays a big factor for the US junior team as 70+% of their teams generally come from this program.

Bowers bypassed the CHL and CJHL for the USHL as a 16 and 17 year old, and then moved onto the NCAA at 18. Canadian world junior team goes to the CHL (Fabbro and Makar only guys last year fro NCAA, only 3 guys invited to camp, both played in the Canadian Junior Hockey League prior to the NCAA) to form their team. 90+% of their teams generally come from the CHL.

Both will be on the WJ teams this year, I think that will be a better way to evaluate than saying one made it as an 18 year old and one never.

Agreed. We can't read too much into WJC selection between the two countries. IMO both were similarly (close enough) ranked prospects in the 2017 draft. If one has a slight leg up right now, I would have to give it to Bowers but their situations were different as well. Norris is a solid prospect, just not a high end (bonafide top 6) prospect.
 

Sens of Anarchy

Registered User
Jul 9, 2013
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I mean first of all there's a big difference between having a "succesful NHL career" to take your words and "play in the NHL". Playing in the NHL is not the same thing as being successful.

Here's a list of guys that played in the WJC at 18 and that had less than memorable NHL careers:

Cody Hodgson (16pts in 6 games at WJC) - Canada
Jerry D'Amigo (12pts in 7 games) - USA
Anthony Stewart (11pts in 6 games) - Canada
Jordan Schroeder (11pts in 6 games) - USA
Jeremy Morin (7 pts in 7 games) - USA
Peter Mueller ( 6 pts in 7 games) - USA
Riley Barber (6 pts in 7 games) - USA
Rob Schremp (5 pts in 7 games) - USA
Nic Petan (5 pts in 7 games) - Canada
Kevin Porter (5 points in 7 games) - USA
Jamie Lundmark (5 pts in 7 games) - Canada
Ryan Hollweg (5 pts in 7 games) - USA
Quinton Howden (5 pts in 7 games) - Canada
Jack Skille ( 2 pts in 7 games) - Canada
Ryan Bourque ( 3pts in 7 games) - USA
Joe Hicketts (3pts in 7 games) - Canada
Patrick O'Sullivan ( 3 pts in 6 games) - USA
Hudson Fasching (4pts in 5 games) - USA
Rico Fata (4pts in 7 games) - Canada

All of these guys did not have a succesful NHL career or will not.

Then there is

Josh Norris (3 points in 7 games) - USA

There's no guarantee Norris will be a good player.

Tells us nothing other than they were good enough according to the brass to make the team
Curtis Lazar
2014
Canada U20WJC-207347
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Brock Boeser
2015
31.png
USA U20
WJC-207123
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

Sens of Anarchy

Registered User
Jul 9, 2013
65,308
49,947
I don't think of Norris as even in the top 3 of main pieces. Recent 1st rounders have value but if we're predicting future NHL success I would take the three players above him as being better chances of being players. This is nothing against Norris but just that there is a lot of uncertainty in terms of translating from NCAA to the NHL when you have middling stats. Here's hoping for a good year from him this year.

Otherwise, people are too high on draft picks in general and this seems to be a pervasive issue in the NHL management world as well. You often see actual NHL players traded for 4ths or 5ths which is quite interesting because those players have about a 1/20 chance of being better than the players they're actually getting traded for in many cases. If all goes well we would be happy if Norris turned out to be a player like Tierney or maybe a slightly better version. That's a lot of potential risk compared to the actual thing. Balcers has actually scored in the AHL - that puts him above the NCAA prospect. Demelo is an actual NHL player - Norris still has a chance he busts.

Main piece:
(1) Tierney (actual 3rd line C)
(2) Balcers (AHL scorer; potentially top 9 scoring winger)
(3) Demelo (actual 6th D)
(4) Norris (potentially 3rd line C prospect) / Draft picks (depending on position but anything after 20 is unlikely to be a better asset than Tierney/Balcers based on probability at least. There is an argument to be made that draft picks have differences in inherent value on good drafting teams versus bad drafting teams.)

I see your argument but I would out Norris over Demelo and probably over Balcers as a prospect but ... its a wait and see.
 
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