Player Discussion Jonathan Drouin II

[teamfirst]

Early but Domi's on track.

That was funny.....not accurate but funny

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

Our PP was worse with Weber on it last year. Small sample size indeed, just like this hot start for Jo Drouin and Max Domi.

Domi has 43 points in his last 42 games. That's not a short sample size...

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

I read on twitter that Drouin has 32 pts in his last 36 games

 

[417]

I read on twitter that Drouin has 32 pts in his last 36 games

Approaching Galchenyuk #1C territory.

 

[Mrb1p]

Just wanna point out what is probably instinctively obvious for anyone who read your ridiculous sweeping statements: You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about, or you are blatantly lying.

You have pulled out a graphic (which is a rigorous method but still one of many interpretations out there) and made it say something that it has never said. I just want to make it perfectly clear, so that no one will buy your bull****. No one serious, including the very person who came up with this graph and this method, thinks "players are what they are at 23". Like, just drop him a mail for yourself and tell him exactly what you said above "He's 23, he won't find it" and see how that goes.Or you could just read his findings with more care and see that he he repeatedly explains how wide the variations get.

Like, do you also celebrate birthdays of 70 years old and tell them: "This is it. Average worldwide life expectancy is 70. So blow those candles diligently and say your prayers, because this it's your last birthday. You won't ever have another one." ?

Because that's pretty much what you just did here.

It says exactly what I said. Drouin is unlikely to go from his 50 points self to a 80 points scorer, like DGS suggested.

 

[Deebs]

If Drouin can become a 60 point player @ $5.5M, I'm happy with that.

 

[tooji]

ITT We just learned that statistics cant have outliers and that two example dismiss the mean.

It would be interesting to see the standard deviation of that little figure you gave.

It would also be interesting to re-make that figure but filter it to players who were selected top 10 overall. It will no doubt be different

 

[Mrb1p]

It would be interesting to see the standard deviation of that little figure you gave.

It would also be interesting to re-make that figure but filter it to players who were selected top 10 overall. It will no doubt be different

Wouldn't it just make Drouin look worse ?

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

It says exactly what I said. Drouin is unlikely to go from his 50 points self to a 80 points scorer, like DGS suggested.

I just said he has that potential. This is the problem with stat watchers, they don’t take into account things like the fact Drouin had no connection with anyone last year but clearly has chemistry with Domi right now.

 

[Mrb1p]

I just said he has that potential. This is the problem with stat watchers, they don’t take into account things like the fact Drouin had no connection with anyone last year but clearly has chemistry with Domi right now.

But a jump of 40% in production is unlikely, at that age, wouldn't you agree ?

 

[Adriatic]

But a jump of 40% in production is unlikely, at that age, wouldn't you agree ?

I'm pretty sure 40% production increases have happened numerous times in the past. Sometimes all it takes is playing with different players.

 

[1909]

I just said he has that potential. This is the problem with stat watchers, they don’t take into account things like the fact Drouin had no connection with anyone last year but clearly has chemistry with Domi right now.

+ the fact that Drouin doesn't have to play center anymore... Which is a BIG +

 

[Vlad The Impaler]

It says exactly what I said. Drouin is unlikely to go from his 50 points self to a 80 points scorer, like DGS suggested.

Well, that's absolutely not what you said earlier, which I fortunately quoted. You stated definitively that Drouin couldn't improve from where he was right now. That he couldn't become more consistent because he was 23 (lol) and that it was the "always has been" age or something equally esoteric. Now you're saying it's "unlikely he will be an 80 point winger".

There's a huge difference between your former statement and the second one, which is entirely reasonable, IMO. Don't know why you and Kriss keep insisting you're not saying things when it's pretty clearly written.

I'm not ruling out that Drouin can have an 80 point season but it doesn't seem very likely to me either. However, I am optimistic he will improve as a winger, offensively but especially in his overall game.

 

[KevSkillz4]

He is better than last year. Yeah he have some bad games in 22 games this season, but he got pretty good games too. Him and Domi have great chemistry, they young and have great talent. Imagine if we have drafted both in Draft 2013 hehe!

 

[Mrb1p]

Well, that's absolutely not what you said earlier, which I fortunately quoted. You stated definitively that Drouin couldn't improve from where he was right now. That he couldn't become more consistent because he was 23 (lol) and that it was the "always has been" age or something equally esoteric. Now you're saying it's "unlikely he will be an 80 point winger".

There's a huge difference between your former statement and the second one, which is entirely reasonable, IMO. Don't know why you and Kriss keep insisting you're not saying things when it's pretty clearly written.

I'm not ruling out that Drouin can have an 80 point season but it doesn't seem very likely to me either. However, I am optimistic he will improve as a winger, offensively but especially in his overall game.

It's unlikely I ever get struck by lighting, but there's still a possibility, I'm gonna go out on a limb here, and say I'll never get struck by lighting.

Also, it's pretty much black on white here:

If anything his lack of consistency gives him that much more upside. If the guy ever finds it, 80+ is certainly doable.

I answered:

He's 23, he wont ever find it.

Then followed up with a graph that shows that, more often than not, a forward is what he is by the age of 23, and that improvements of 40% or so, are just not realistic.

Brad Marchand and Blake Wheeler are two examples that work, even though Wheeler falls short of a few points, if we want to nitpick, and Marchand works "on-pace" alone, since he got injured.

 

[Mrb1p]

I'm pretty sure 40% production increases have happened numerous times in the past. Sometimes all it takes is playing with different players.

Wheeler and Marchand are the only one I can think of, post 23 years old. (That is, a player that had a 40% jump in production from his max production at the age of 23.)

I'd say -/+ 10% is normal variation, so I'll never rule out 65ish points for Drouin, thats a possibility, it is certainly one this year.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Drouin was on pace for 60 pts 2 years ago.
If he gets 70 this season, its nothing crazy. He's got the talent to be a dominant nhl player

 

[Adriatic]

Wheeler and Marchand are the only one I can think of, post 23 years old. (That is, a player that had a 40% jump in production from his max production at the age of 23.)

I'd say -/+ 10% is normal variation, so I'll never rule out 65ish points for Drouin, thats a possibility, it is certainly one this year.

Here's an easy one..John Leclair!

 

[26Mats]

Drouin was on pace for 60 pts 2 years ago.
If he gets 70 this season, its nothing crazy. He's got the talent to be a dominant nhl player

I haven't seen anything in his hockey sense that says dominant NHL player. But he's young and learning the game so it's possible he could grow into a dominant player. But I haven't seen it yet. So far, he's a good complimentary player, but not a play driver. These are still important players: like Nylander or Galchenyuk.

It would be great if he could have a 30 goal, 70 point season as he's on pace for. It would do wonders for his comfidence and hopeful push him to keep trying to get better.

 

[Thebesthockey]

If Drouin can become a 60 point player @ $5.5M, I'm happy with that.

you dont trade a top pairing D for 60 point man

 

[Mrb1p]

Here's an easy one..John Leclair!

Yeah, Leclair certainly works, but then again, his career was almost three decades ago, so I'm gonna go with the statement that Drouin won't be have a 40% jump in production.

Just realized Leclair has a lot of AS votings, thats weird. 4 AS-1 and two AS-2. Damn, thats pretty dominant for a guy that only has four top 10 in scoring and only two #4 overall. Just tells you how weak the LW position has been between Hull and Ovi.

 

[koyvoo]

you dont trade a top pairing D for 60 point man

You haven’t been paying much attention to Sergachev this season have you?

As good as his rookie season was, he’s been ok to poor all season long. Check his player thread on the TB boards. Check his usage (sheltered 3rd pair) inconsisant and dwindling I’ve time from the start of this year.

The development of defensemen is even less predictable than forwards so it isn’t to say that his potential still won’t be might. This might be a sophomore dip like many players go through before be becoming a star even. It’s absolutely not set in stone that’ll be a top pairing D though, and a significant number of Tampa fans are currently voicing that opinion.

I’m sure that if he had been playing for us this season with the quality he’s given them this season, the majority of posters here would be saying we wasted a high pick on.

 

[Thebesthockey]

You haven’t been paying much attention to Sergachev this season have you?

As good as his rookie season was, he’s been ok to poor all season long. Check his player thread on the TB boards. Check his usage (sheltered 3rd pair) inconsisant and dwindling I’ve time from the start of this year.

The development of defensemen is even less predictable than forwards so it isn’t to say that his potential still won’t be might. This might be a sophomore dip like many players go through before be becoming a star even. It’s absolutely not set in stone that’ll be a top pairing D though, and a significant number of Tampa fans are currently voicing that opinion.

I’m sure that if he had been playing for us this season with the quality he’s given them this season, the majority of posters here would be saying we wasted a high pick on.

are you trying to convince based on drouin track record
he has proved nothing to date
already in one rookie season sergachev has proven more upside than D has in last 4 yrs of attempts

 

[koyvoo]

are you trying to convince based on drouin track record
he has proved nothing to date
already in one rookie season sergachev has proven more upside than D has in last 4 yrs of attempts

I didn’t even mention Drouin in my post. So I’m not trying to convince anyone anything about him.

Im only stating that Sergachev has been poor this year, many of their fans no have doubts about him becoming a top pairing D and that if he played for us the way he’s played for them all year, the majority of posters on these boards would be calling a waste of a high pick.

 

[Cobra Commander]

you dont trade a top pairing D for 60 point man

Sergachev is far from being a lock at becoming a top pairing D-man. Drouin is playing like a 1LW right now, at this point we are winning this trade, let’s revisit this in a couple of seasons.