Johnny Gaudreau: Goes from 115pts to 60pts within 2 seasons

[majormajor]

The drop off is pretty large but may not be as huge as it seems.
Calgary years he had 210 goals and 609 points in 602 games.
CBJ years he has had 32 goals and 128 points in 153 games.
I think his CBJ years drop off in goals looks much worse than his drop off in points.

Funny enough the assists pace is the same.

His shot really isn't very good, maybe it got worse. I'd say that he can't get open looks without high quality linemates but I don't think that's true. He still gets a lot of good shooting looks these days and fires muffins.

His shooting percentage is less than half his career average. I checked the "ixG" stat to see the individual expected goals and it isn't much lower than normal.

 

[PositiveCashFlow]

Johnny Hockey(TM)

 

[Mobiandi]

Granted though given the results ... I wonder if more players should just bring their ego down and just play the way he wants.

Hard to argue with 110+ points and a +64 rating (highest since Wayne freaking Gretzky in his prime).

Do you want to be the best hockey player you can be or not?

Gaudreau reportedly never disliked Sutter. On the contrary actually, his father mentioned several times that he was the type of coach Gaudreau tends to thrive under.

Tkachuk, on the other hand, had a very strained relationship with him

 

[njdevils1982]

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

For one year he was.
Marner will never hit 115 points.

By 26 Marner has three 90+ seasons (likely 4 if not for an injury) and plays a two way game. Gaudreau will never equal Marner.

 

[Spargon]

As a Jackets fan I can only imagine how bad and unwatchable the team would be without Johnny. We have gobs of cap space and endless ELC players so the cap hit doesn't matter, we just need better players, and to keep adding them so Johnny will have some better insulation.

We've seen before that he can pop with quality linemates, perhaps once Fantilli gets up to speed Johnny will have more to work with.

You guys need Laine to find the level he was during his ELC again. Then Johnny can have someone to pass to.

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

Yes.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

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Note that he wants to win hockey games and not cups.

 

[PULSATING]

Like any sane person, playing for the Flames ruined his love for the game.

 

[Oilslick941611]

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he came to Columbus for money and to get the spotlight off of him.

 

[Iggys Dome]

Him going to CBJ was the worst decision he’ll ever make.

I’m sure his wife is happy though.

 

[ORRFForever]

It happens. Most forwards, as they hit 30, fall off.

He should have stayed in Calgary.

I’m sure his wife is happy though.

You know what they say...

Happy wife, Crummy stats.

 

[majormajor]

You guys need Laine to find the level he was during his ELC again. Then Johnny can have someone to pass to.

Laine prefers to be the primary puck carrier on his line. Not that that's a good idea, but it's what he does.

 

[Peasy]

By 26 Marner has three 90+ seasons (likely 4 if not for an injury) and plays a two way game. Gaudreau will never equal Marner.

But he scored more points than Marner in a single season. That's all Paul d needs to make his conclusion as to who he would prefer.

 

[njdevils1982]

he came to Columbus for money and to get the spotlight off of him.

he got the money but the spotlight is still on him with the amount of people laughing at his choice,

but he laughs in the end as he's richer than anyone here

 

[Oilslick941611]

he got the money but the spotlight is still on him with the amount of people laughing at his choice,

but he laughs in the end as he's richer than anyone here

Spotlight is much less than if he was putting 60 points in Calgary.

 

[tarheelhockey]

All three guys on that line have suffered a huge drop in production.

Only one of them has the excuse that his team is ass.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Not surprising. Gaudreau's on-ice shooting percentage in 2022 was impossibly and unsustainably high:

To show how extraordinary that 13.4% rate was - McDavid has never come close to scoring at that rate. Neither has Ovechkin. Crosby did - but only over two injury-shortened seasons, amounting to less than 60 games.

In 2022, Gaudreau's on-ice shooting percentage was around 35% higher than his career average (13.4% vs 9.9%). It's extraordinarily unlikely that Gaudreau, at age 28, sudenly learned how to generate offense (at 5v5) at a rate that surpassed McDavid, Ovechkin and Crosby.

Another way of looking at it - this link shows all 3,910 seasons from forwards who meet certain parameters. Gaudreau has the 6th highest on-ice shooting percentage, which puts him (essentially) in the 100th percentile. As expected, it's reverted back to his career average the past two years.

Gaudreau never had the talent to be a 115 point scorer. My ballpark calculation suggests that he was playing at around a 98 point level in 2022. He got 17 points due to extraordinary luck. If that sounds harsh - that's pretty much what he produced in 2019. So the decrease in his production isn't surprising. Anyone who expected a repeat of 2022 was being unrealistic.

 

[NVious]

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Maybe he meant it literally, like he came to Colombus to win more than 1 game (gameS) and he has done just that.

 

[Coffey]

To show how extraordinary that 13.4% rate was - McDavid has never come close to scoring at that rate. Neither has Ovechkin. Crosby did - but only over two injury-shortened seasons, amounting to less than 60 games.

Now do Draisaitl

 

[Dirty Dan]

Not surprising. Gaudreau's on-ice shooting percentage in 2022 was impossibly and unsustainably high:

View attachment 843189

To show how extraordinary that 13.4% rate was - McDavid has never come close to scoring at that rate. Neither has Ovechkin. Crosby did - but only over two injury-shortened seasons, amounting to less than 60 games.

In 2022, Gaudreau's on-ice shooting percentage was around 35% higher than his career average (13.4% vs 9.9%). It's extraordinarily unlikely that Gaudreau, at age 28, sudenly learned how to generate offense (at 5v5) at a rate that surpassed McDavid, Ovechkin and Crosby.

Another way of looking at it - this link shows all 3,910 seasons from forwards who meet certain parameters. Gaudreau has the 6th highest on-ice shooting percentage, which puts him (essentially) in the 100th percentile. As expected, it's reverted back to his career average the past two years.

Gaudreau never had the talent to be a 115 point scorer. My ballpark calculation suggests that he was playing at around a 98 point level in 2022. He got 17 points due to extraordinary luck. If that sounds harsh - that's pretty much what he produced in 2019. So the decrease in his production isn't surprising. Anyone who expected a repeat of 2022 was being unrealistic.

What are you smoking. Huberdeau also scored 115 points that year

When you play on an elite line you tend to put up points, also shooting percentages are on the rise over the past few years

Blues as a team shot 12.4% that year, its feasible that a top line could score higher

 

[PaulD]

By 26 Marner has three 90+ seasons (likely 4 if not for an injury) and plays a two way game. Gaudreau will never equal Marner.

I sure didn't say he would. Earlier innthe thred I basically said Johnny is finished.
But I did say for one year hexwas better. And I highly doubt Marner ever hits 115 points.
Play offs I can't recall either of them impressing

 

[Bank Shot]

Not surprising. Gaudreau's on-ice shooting percentage in 2022 was impossibly and unsustainably high:

View attachment 843189

To show how extraordinary that 13.4% rate was - McDavid has never come close to scoring at that rate. Neither has Ovechkin. Crosby did - but only over two injury-shortened seasons, amounting to less than 60 games.

In 2022, Gaudreau's on-ice shooting percentage was around 35% higher than his career average (13.4% vs 9.9%). It's extraordinarily unlikely that Gaudreau, at age 28, sudenly learned how to generate offense (at 5v5) at a rate that surpassed McDavid, Ovechkin and Crosby.

Another way of looking at it - this link shows all 3,910 seasons from forwards who meet certain parameters. Gaudreau has the 6th highest on-ice shooting percentage, which puts him (essentially) in the 100th percentile. As expected, it's reverted back to his career average the past two years.

Gaudreau never had the talent to be a 115 point scorer. My ballpark calculation suggests that he was playing at around a 98 point level in 2022. He got 17 points due to extraordinary luck. If that sounds harsh - that's pretty much what he produced in 2019. So the decrease in his production isn't surprising. Anyone who expected a repeat of 2022 was being unrealistic.

He must have went to the Rick Tocchet finishing school that season.

I don't think a real comeback is in store for Johnny either. He's notably known for not being a fitness/diet guy so I could see him aging like Dany Heatley.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

He is a guy you can put with high-level players. If Fantilli didn’t get hurt he’d have a lot more points.

 

[CBJx614]

he came to Columbus for money and to get the spotlight off of him.

He literally didn't even take the highest offer. He came to Columbus because Philly f***ed up and didn't have the ability to offer him a contract.

Calgary reportedly had offered eight years at $10.5 million per season, but Gaudreau decided early on that he wasn’t going back to the Flames. The Flyers, long expected to be the destination, didn’t make an offer, GM Chuck Fletcher told reporters, because it would have prompted other trades by Philadelphia.

New Jersey offered seven years and more than $9 million per season, per The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun.

Johnny Gaudreau stunned the NHL, and he's 'over the moon' to play for the Blue Jackets

"It kind of came out of the blue," GM Jarmo Kekalainen said of the blockbuster free-agent signing.

theathletic.com