Prospect Info: John Beecher signs ELC - 925K AAV

[UConn126]

Just for reference, I look at the picks 28-32 drafted from 2010-2019.

Only 34% have played at least 100 NHL games

Most notable players select during this time period (based on P/GP and a min of 50gp)

Rickard Rakell (51pts)
Brock Nelson (47pts)
Charlie Coyle (40pts)
Adrian Kempe (38pts)
Anthony Beauvillier (38pts)
Tanner Pearson (38pts)

^Again these are the top performers in this group. Just after them the next 5 are Ho-Sang, Hartman, Tolvanen, Steel & Rattie. Rattie, whose 10th in production has played at a 25pt pace for his career.

I'm not sure what other expectation of Beecher are, but based on the draft position and 10yrs of data, I'd say if he becomes a 30pt NHLer then the pick is a win.

This is a great breakdown. Thanks for putting it together.

 

[BruinsNetwork]

It looked like a no brainer while seeing Kaliyev rocking a twitching like some kind of madman on camera at the draft that night?

Imagine what his interviews with the clubs were like.

The real miss of that draft is going to be Bobby Brink, not Kaliyev, IMO. But yeah, from everything I heard about Kaliyev and as someone who really wanted him, he had some pretty awkward/not great interviews and that scared off a lot of teams.

 

[Smitty93]

Just for reference, I look at the picks 28-32 drafted from 2010-2019.

Only 34% have played at least 100 NHL games

Most notable players select during this time period (based on P/GP and a min of 50gp)

Rickard Rakell (51pts)
Brock Nelson (47pts)
Charlie Coyle (40pts)
Adrian Kempe (38pts)
Anthony Beauvillier (38pts)
Tanner Pearson (38pts)

^Again these are the top performers in this group. Just after them the next 5 are Ho-Sang, Hartman, Tolvanen, Steel & Rattie. Rattie, whose 10th in production has played at a 25pt pace for his career.

I'm not sure what other expectation of Beecher are, but based on the draft position and 10yrs of data, I'd say if he becomes a 30pt NHLer then the pick is a win.

I think the criticism is more about the process than anything else. We knew that Beecher was viewed as a high floor/low ceiling player at the draft and fans would have preferred using it on someone with more offensive potential. It doesn't help that two of the most popular names for that pick, Kaliyev and Brink, have both progressed well.

Now, I know there are people here who talk about how just getting an NHL player, even bottom 6 forward or bottom pairing defenseman, is a success because of the low chance of success with low 1sts. The problem is that since Sweeney took over, they've had two consistent issues, holes in the top 6 at wing and two aging top 6 Cs, neither of which have been properly addressed. People wanted them to take a chance on a player who could fill those roles, like they did with drafting Lysell last year.

I don't think anyone can ever expect a GM to never fail, but I think you use processes that give you the best chance at success and I don't believe Sweeney has done that. There's that famous line attributed to Einstein: "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results". I feel like that line has described Sweeney for most of his tenure.

 

[ON3M4N]

I think the criticism is more about the process than anything else. We knew that Beecher was viewed as a high floor/low ceiling player at the draft and fans would have preferred using it on someone with more offensive potential. It doesn't help that two of the most popular names for that pick, Kaliyev and Brink, have both progressed well.

Now, I know there are people here who talk about how just getting an NHL player, even bottom 6 forward or bottom pairing defenseman, is a success because of the low chance of success with low 1sts. The problem is that since Sweeney took over, they've had two consistent issues, holes in the top 6 at wing and two aging top 6 Cs, neither of which have been properly addressed. People wanted them to take a chance on a player who could fill those roles, like they did with drafting Lysell last year.

I don't think anyone can ever expect a GM to never fail, but I think you use processes that give you the best chance at success and I don't believe Sweeney has done that. There's that famous line attributed to Einstein: "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results". I feel like that line has described Sweeney for most of his tenure.

Eh Brink just had a monster season this year that kind of came out of nowhere. The year after he was drafted he had 24pts in 28gp. The next season he had 11pts in 15gp. So in his first 43gp he managed 35pts. Fast forward to this season (Brinks 3rd year of NCAA hockey) and he post 41gp & 57pts for the season. He basically put up 22 more points this season then his entire NCAA career and did it in 2 less games.

Kaliyev I was hoping they'd draft, but obviously didn't. On the plus side he's already playing in the NHL as a rookie this year. However he's not exactly lighting it up with 25pts in 75gp. That comes out to a 27pt pace for an 82 games season. He's also playing 12-13 minutes a night, so he's not exactly a guy that the Kings are relying on. Of LAK players with at least 50 games, Kaliyev ranks 4th lowest in ATOI.

Have they progressed "well" as you say? sure depending on what your definition of well is. Its encouraging to see Brink's production jump 170% from his NCAA career in just one season, but it also can be a bit of a red flag. Its great that Kaliyev is playing in the NHL as a 20yr old, but he's also playing the most sheltered minutes on the Kings, doesn't see a lot of TOI and his production is in line with that of a late 1st rounder. At this juncture Brink, Kaliyev & Beecher are all still unknowns who may or may not go on to carve out successful NHL careers.

 

[finchster]

The next Zach Senyshyn

 

[DKH]

I think the criticism is more about the process than anything else. We knew that Beecher was viewed as a high floor/low ceiling player at the draft and fans would have preferred using it on someone with more offensive potential. It doesn't help that two of the most popular names for that pick, Kaliyev and Brink, have both progressed well.

Now, I know there are people here who talk about how just getting an NHL player, even bottom 6 forward or bottom pairing defenseman, is a success because of the low chance of success with low 1sts. The problem is that since Sweeney took over, they've had two consistent issues, holes in the top 6 at wing and two aging top 6 Cs, neither of which have been properly addressed. People wanted them to take a chance on a player who could fill those roles, like they did with drafting Lysell last year.

I don't think anyone can ever expect a GM to never fail, but I think you use processes that give you the best chance at success and I don't believe Sweeney has done that. There's that famous line attributed to Einstein: "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results". I feel like that line has described Sweeney for most of his tenure.

I factually know Sweeney 5 weeks GM and limited scouting in 2014/15 due to his prior position of Providence Bruins GM relied on the DIRECTOR of AMATEUR SCOUTING Keith Gretzky. I know they weren’t happy and let him go.

Sweeney mistake was not 2015 but 2017 when they had Brannstrom as their target at 17 but if gone Robert Thomas was agreed to take. Vegas took Brannstrom 15 and when 17 came the Euro scouts according to what I heard made a stink for Vaakanainen and they went off course. They supposedly already hashed out as a group Thomas is the guy if their primary target gone. The Bruins followed up in round 2 getting a center in Studnicka

 

[rocketdan9]

The next Zach Senyshyn

Naw

 

[JoeIsAStud]

The next Zach Senyshyn

Beecher is almost the complete opposite of Senyshyn.

thing they have in common. Both skate very well.

On the other hand. Senyshyn was an offensive first player who they spent years trying to turn into a Bruin style 200 foot player. Beecher is a defensive first 200 foot player who they hope will develop his offensive tools.

 

[DKH]

When Kaliyev sat at the draft fidgeting and sweating I said a prayer to the hockey Gods to spare him from the Bruins. Thankfully he’s in a better place

 

[DKH]

Beecher is almost the complete opposite of Senyshyn.

thing they have in common. Both skate very well.

On the other hand. Senyshyn was an offensive first player who they spent years trying to turn into a Bruin style 200 foot player. Beecher is a defensive first 200 foot player who they hope will develop his offensive tools.

Bingo

Exactly

I’ll take 20% more offense then Kuraly and more consistency

 

[Dr Quincy]

Eh Brink just had a monster season this year that kind of came out of nowhere. The year after he was drafted he had 24pts in 28gp. The next season he had 11pts in 15gp. So in his first 43gp he managed 35pts. Fast forward to this season (Brinks 3rd year of NCAA hockey) and he post 41gp & 57pts for the season. He basically put up 22 more points this season then his entire NCAA career and did it in 2 less games.

Kaliyev I was hoping they'd draft, but obviously didn't. On the plus side he's already playing in the NHL as a rookie this year. However he's not exactly lighting it up with 25pts in 75gp. That comes out to a 27pt pace for an 82 games season. He's also playing 12-13 minutes a night, so he's not exactly a guy that the Kings are relying on. Of LAK players with at least 50 games, Kaliyev ranks 4th lowest in ATOI.

Have they progressed "well" as you say? sure depending on what your definition of well is. Its encouraging to see Brink's production jump 170% from his NCAA career in just one season, but it also can be a bit of a red flag. Its great that Kaliyev is playing in the NHL as a 20yr old, but he's also playing the most sheltered minutes on the Kings, doesn't see a lot of TOI and his production is in line with that of a late 1st rounder. At this juncture Brink, Kaliyev & Beecher are all still unknowns who may or may not go on to carve out successful NHL careers.

Wait.... the knock on Brink is that he only had 38 pts in 43 games..... while we are discussing choosing a prospect over him who had 24 pts in 47 games.

Beecher- .5 ppg in his 1st 2 years and Brink .88 ppg. And this is supposed to be "See, it wasn't a bad choice."

Of course then you get to the 3rd year for each player. A year in which a player in his jr year of college actually has his ppg drop, while the other does EXACTLY what you want a jr in college to do- Break out and be a key player on his team.

If you want to say Brink's size makes him a question mark... hey that's fine, a little old school, but fine. But at this point there is literally no evidence to suggest Beecher is a better prospect. And trying to down play Kaliyev's actual NHL success with all sorts of qualifiers is weak. Give Beecher sheltered time in the NHL and he's not going to have 12 goals this year.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Bingo

Exactly

I’ll take 20% more offense then Kuraly and more consistency

Cool, so you'll happily trade me your late 1st rd pick for Tanner Pearson who is even higher than 20% more offense than Kuraly.

 

[DKH]

I’m going to game Tuesday with Eric - we will be fun to see Beecher

Wait.... the knock on Brink is that he only had 38 pts in 43 games..... while we are discussing choosing a prospect over him who had 24 pts in 47 games.

Beecher- .5 ppg in his 1st 2 years and Brink .88 ppg. And this is supposed to be "See, it wasn't a bad choice."

Of course then you get to the 3rd year for each player. A year in which a player in his jr year of college actually has his ppg drop, while the other does EXACTLY what you want a jr in college to do- Break out and be a key player on his team.

If you want to say Brink's size makes him a question mark... hey that's fine, a little old school, but fine. But at this point there is literally no evidence to suggest Beecher is a better prospect. And trying to down play Kaliyev's actual NHL success with all sorts of qualifiers is weak. Give Beecher sheltered time in the NHL and he's not going to have 12 goals this year.

there is no room for either Kaly or Brink on top 6 with Marchand & Hall on left side and DeBrusk & Pastrnak on right. I’m very very concerned where Is Lysell & Merkulov going to play.

It’s nice having top end guys but you only have 4 wing spots available in top 6

The good news is with Ullmark & Swayman plus a D of under 30 guys: McAvoy, Carlo (fantastic vs Penguins one of best games I’ve ever seen him play) Lindholm, Grzelcyk, and Uber D prospect Mason Lohrei coming the Bruins aren’t going anywhere anytime soon

 

[BlackFrancis]

Cool, so you'll happily trade me your late 1st rd pick for Tanner Pearson who is even higher than 20% more offense than Kuraly.

If you push Tanner Pearson into a time machine so he comes out being 22, under an ELC and plays center, sure.

Won't even ask for him to be huge, physically aggressive or fast. That'd just be greedy.

 

[DKH]

Good, bad & ugly from Providence Bruins weekend

The Providence Bruins were missing starting goalie Troy Grosenick and backup Kyle Keyser. Top defenseman Jack Ahcan was on recall with Boston, as was third-leading scorer Jesper Froden. Cameron Hug…

rinksiderhodeisland.com

— First-rounder Johnny Beecher didn’t have any points, but he played two solid games in his first weekend as a pro. He used his speed, held his own on faceoffs and had four shots on Saturday and two more on Sunday.

 

[DKH]

If you are playing fantasy hockey I’m all in on Kaliyev & Brink. If you want to trade Marchy, Jake, Hall, or Pasta to open up a spot on top 6 for Brink & Kaliyev have at it

I don’t want Bobby Brink playing on my bottom 6 it’s not his game - Kaliyev can’t check his hat

 

[ON3M4N]

Wait.... the knock on Brink is that he only had 38 pts in 43 games..... while we are discussing choosing a prospect over him who had 24 pts in 47 games.

Beecher- .5 ppg in his 1st 2 years and Brink .88 ppg. And this is supposed to be "See, it wasn't a bad choice."

Of course then you get to the 3rd year for each player. A year in which a player in his jr year of college actually has his ppg drop, while the other does EXACTLY what you want a jr in college to do- Break out and be a key player on his team.

If you want to say Brink's size makes him a question mark... hey that's fine, a little old school, but fine. But at this point there is literally no evidence to suggest Beecher is a better prospect. And trying to down play Kaliyev's actual NHL success with all sorts of qualifiers is weak. Give Beecher sheltered time in the NHL and he's not going to have 12 goals this year.

Did I say it was a knock? No, no I didn't. I simply showed his first two years combined weren't as good as his 3rd year in NCAA hockey. Could it mean his development ramped up and things started to click? sure, could it also be an outlier year? sure. Nowhere in post my was I trying to convince anyone Beecher wasn't a bad choice (or that it was a bad choice for that matter). The person I replied to mentioned not taking a few other people, both of whom are still developing as well and really unknown of what their career will become.

I don't think I downplayed Kaliyev either, just laid out information that most fans probably wouldn't know unless they follow the team. To your point though, you're right I can't see Beecher having 13 goals in sheltered minutes. That's also because I can't see him getting any PP TOI in Boston. Why does that matter? well nearly half of Kaliyev's goals have come via the PP this season and he ranks 6th in PP TOI for the Kings this year. Now if you'd also like to take that as me "downplaying" Kaliyev NHL success then have at.

 

[finchster]

Beecher is almost the complete opposite of Senyshyn.

thing they have in common. Both skate very well.

On the other hand. Senyshyn was an offensive first player who they spent years trying to turn into a Bruin style 200 foot player. Beecher is a defensive first 200 foot player who they hope will develop his offensive tools.

They have alot in common, Beecher will be the next prospect who does nothing and people will be screaming for him to 'get his chance'.

 

[GoBs]

Kaliyev couldn’t handle Boston this place alone would send him in a dark place If he ever found about it - glad he went to a no pressure organization and city few care and you can get lost in

All reports Beecher looks and played like an NHL player

Sorry to repeat my self but Beecher going to make a better pro than college player.
When Michigan brought in all the top prospects and he was dropped down I think it will help him down the pro road.
Best of Luck

 

[Dr Quincy]

I

Did I say it was a knock? No, no I didn't. I simply showed his first two years combined weren't as good as his 3rd year in NCAA hockey. Could it mean his development ramped up and things started to click? sure, could it also be an outlier year? sure. Nowhere in post my was I trying to convince anyone Beecher wasn't a bad choice (or that it was a bad choice for that matter). The person I replied to mentioned not taking a few other people, both of whom are still developing as well and really unknown of what their career will become.

I don't think I downplayed Kaliyev either, just laid out information that most fans probably wouldn't know unless they follow the team. To your point though, you're right I can't see Beecher having 13 goals in sheltered minutes. That's also because I can't see him getting any PP TOI in Boston. Why does that matter? well nearly half of Kaliyev's goals have come via the PP this season and he ranks 6th in PP TOI for the Kings this year. Now if you'd also like to take that as me "downplaying" Kaliyev NHL success then have at.

Your line "his 1st 2 years combined weren't as good as his 3rd" is a rather odd knock. Again, he was .88 ppg as a fresh and soph. That's very good production for a freshman. So yeah, I like to see a freshman do well and then as a jr do even better. It's much better than being "meh" as a fresh and soph and "bleh" as a jr.

And you are absolutely trying to downplay Kaliyev's success. Kaliyev has .53 goals per 60, since you want to discount pps. That's better than Hall at 5 on 5. Not sure why you didn't want to lay out that information for us. And I'm' not sure why you think Kaliyev wouldn't get pp time on BOS considering his pp goals/60 are better than Bergeron, Marchand, and Hall. Only Pastrnak is higher.

This is just crazy talk that somehow that MAYBE getting a 3rd or 4th line grinder who couldn't produce in the NCAA, is somehow genius big brain thinking instead of taking guys with higher potential who have outproduced him at every level.

 

[ON3M4N]

I

Your line "his 1st 2 years combined weren't as good as his 3rd" is a rather odd knock. Again, he was .88 ppg as a fresh and soph. That's very good production for a freshman. So yeah, I like to see a freshman do well and then as a jr do even better. It's much better than being "meh" as a fresh and soph and "bleh" as a jr.

And you are absolutely trying to downplay Kaliyev's success. Kaliyev has .53 goals per 60, since you want to discount pps. That's better than Hall at 5 on 5. Not sure why you didn't want to lay out that information for us. And I'm' not sure why you think Kaliyev wouldn't get pp time on BOS considering his pp goals/60 are better than Bergeron, Marchand, and Hall. Only Pastrnak is higher.

This is just crazy talk that somehow that MAYBE getting a 3rd or 4th line grinder who couldn't produce in the NCAA, is somehow genius big brain thinking instead of taking guys with higher potential who have outproduced him at every level.

Again not a knock. Was his 3rd year better then his first two combined? yes? His production increased 70% his 3rd season compared to his first two combined. Again could be things have just click or could be an outlier season, who knows.

Not downplaying Kaliyev, but you seem hell bent on thinking that lol. Why didn't want I want to layout a single G/60 stat of a 20yr old rookie vs a 30yr old veteran? IDK maybe because I wasn't comparing Kaliyev to Taylor Hall? Now where did I say Kaliyev wouldn't get PP time in Boston? Right I didn't. In fact just like most of your post in this discussion you're making things up in your head. I said Beecher wouldn't get PP TOI in Boston, feel free to re-read my post.

And lastly, where did I say genius big braining thinking....never mind just see above where I mentioned you making things up in your head.

 

[Dizzay]

Hope to see Beecher get a few games in to end the season if the Bruins spot has been decided. I'm not comparing Beacher to McAvoy at all but if the kid can show he can play in Providence and then gets a few games in with the big club, I'm not married to Nosek on the 4th line for all playoffs. I get we have Blidh and Studnicka waiting in the wings as reserves but Studnicka doesn't fit bottom 6. Blidh, yes and then you move Lazar to Center.

 

[DKH]

Cool, so you'll happily trade me your late 1st rd pick for Tanner Pearson who is even higher than 20% more offense than Kuraly.

I already traded it for …….Beecher lol

 

[DKH]

This is a great breakdown. Thanks for putting it together.

Great stuff

The guy I wanted was Shane Pinto and I don’t even think he’s playing hockey now but Beecher was on my 5 guys I want list looking back

 

[Montecristo]

Beecher will be a big fast center who cant handle the puck all the well or finish. But he’ll be an effective forechecker and penalty killer who will be a 10-25 point player in the nhl for a long time as a reliable 4th line centerman. Id say his best case scenario is turning into a cody eakin. But he’ll likely be a matt hendricks/MPS