Joe Sakic - Record as Colorado Avalanche GM - Part III (Updates in First Post)

[Pokecheque]

Thanks for the continually updated first post Foppa2118. It's fascinating I have a suggestion for it: Create a break indicating the moment Patrick Roy left as coach and VP, so it's easy to see what moves Sakic made as the solo head of hockey operations. Maybe color code the post-Roy transactions or something to that effect. Been really interested to dig into just how much separating from Roy helped Sakic evolve into the incredible GM he's become. Not that Sakic bore no responsibility for the many questionable moves that occurred when Roy was part of the organization, but it seems like there have been very few really bad decisions since Roy left, and a lot of great ones.

As I've said before, I just don't think that arrangement was going to work no matter who the respective coach and GM were. It doesn't make sense in hindsight to give the coach some managerial power, it needed to be an all-or-nothing thing.

I've stated my issues about Roy as both a GM and coach, but I just don't think you can have a two-headed monster running the show. It would've failed even if Roy didn't have huge disagreements as to the direction of the franchise.

 

[LostInMosEisley]

As I've said before, I just don't think that arrangement was going to work no matter who the respective coach and GM were. It doesn't make sense in hindsight to give the coach some managerial power, it needed to be an all-or-nothing thing.

I've stated my issues about Roy as both a GM and coach, but I just don't think you can have a two-headed monster running the show. It would've failed even if Roy didn't have huge disagreements as to the direction of the franchise.

Agreed. This article about Roy leaving has some telling tidbits:
Patrick Roy resigns from Avalanche

Obviously Roy was explicit that he left because he felt he didn't have enough say in the direction of the team. Sakic says he relied on Roy more early on and hints that became less the case as he grew more comfortable and he "allowed" Roy to focus on coaching more. The overall tone of Sakic's comments is obviously intended to suggest there was not much tension but reading between the lines it seems obvious there was.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Nope not changing it to 5 yet. Once he fixes the 3C spot I'll do it tho..

I still can't quite let the one year delay of taking care of roster spots thing go. First 2C, then 3C, and honestly both of the years we would have had a more legit shot at actually winning without that weakness.

Snap back to reality

 

[Foppa2118]

Amazing. Kept every 1st round pick in doing this.

That's the real impressive part. He was able to overhaul a lot of the roster for short term success, but kept his 1st round picks so they can hopefully replace some guys in the future and be competitive long term as well.

 

[Hasbro]

That's the real impressive part. He was able to overhaul a lot of the roster for short term success, but kept his 1st round picks so they can hopefully replace some guys in the future and be competitive long term as well.

I think there's at least one player out of Sampo, Beaucage, Mutala, Kovalenko, Stienberg, Foudy, Ambro and Rolston. And I don't think 2 is fanciful.

 

[Foppa2118]

Thanks for the continually updated first post Foppa2118. It's fascinating I have a suggestion for it: Create a break indicating the moment Patrick Roy left as coach and VP, so it's easy to see what moves Sakic made as the solo head of hockey operations. Maybe color code the post-Roy transactions or something to that effect. Been really interested to dig into just how much separating from Roy helped Sakic evolve into the incredible GM he's become. Not that Sakic bore no responsibility for the many questionable moves that occurred when Roy was part of the organization, but it seems like there have been very few really bad decisions since Roy left, and a lot of great ones.

IMO what happened was Sakic was employing the same patient approach early on, he just didn't have the experience to finalize trades he was comfortable with, so it ended up taking longer than they expected originally.

Unfortunately, the patient rebuilding approach is a coach killer as well. The first coach brought in after the start of a rebuild is usually a sacrificial lamb. They teach the youngsters how to be pros, but the team will never be good enough to allow the coach to keep their job.

That coach initially was Sacco. The next phase with Roy was supposed to be a competitive phase. And it looked like it might be with that 2013-14 season, but in actuality it was a flukey season with stellar goaltending.

Sakic was still employing the same patient approach, but I think that success made them feel like they were closer to being competitive than they actually were. So Joe didn't push through trades they were talking about.

Roy really wanted the team to improve the defense. They were using every stop gap measure they could find. From stop gap UFA vets, to a man on man system in the D zone, to letting letting the opposition fire 40 shots on net a night if they kept them to the outside.

Unfortunately for Roy, Sakic just wasn't able to make the moves he needed to in order to make the team competitive. They didn't trade Duchene for a defenseman while Roy was there. They traded ROR for futures which set the rebuild back a few years. They didn't draft defenseman in the 1st round. And they kept missing out on the top UFA's.

This left writing on the wall for that 4th season under Roy to be another disappointing one, and Roy would end up being let go because of it, so he decided to step away on his own terms instead.

In the end the competitive phase under Roy ended up being another sacrificial lamb phase, waiting for the team to get better. Which it eventually did after Sakic finally made a series of moves that addressed their weaknesses, and now the competitive phase they were planning on being for Roy, is with Bednar.

 

[MarkT]

Nope not changing it to 5 yet. Once he fixes the 3C spot I'll do it tho..

I still can't quite let the one year delay of taking care of roster spots thing go. First 2C, then 3C, and honestly both of the years we would have had a more legit shot at actually winning without that weakness.

Snap back to reality

The reason I switched to 5 despite the lack of a proper 3C is, given the current options available, the best choice is probably just to roll with Compher in that position and watch for trade opportunities as the season progresses. Before we added Saad, we had a lack of two-way players and overall quality in the middle six. Now I think we should have enough juice to get us through most of the season without too many issues.

 

[shadow1]

Okay, so my hunch on Eberle was wrong.

Sakic was a lot more aggressive this off-season, adding Kadri, Donskoi, Burakovsky, and Bellemare, while re-signing Wilson.

Last year, it felt like he insulated some areas of strength (checking line, defense, goaltending) by adding Calvert, Cole, and Grubauer. With the additions this off-season, it's clear Sakic is addressing this club's area of weakness, which was (past tense) forward depth.

There are still some interesting stories to follow this season. Will Philip Grubauer hold up for 60 starts? Will Cale Makar, a rookie, be able to adequately replace Tyson Barrie's production? Will one of Burakovsky, Donskoi, or Jost be able to produce like a top-6 forward?

All of those stories are subplots to the main headline, which is that the Avalanche Are Cup Contenders. Deep, talented, young, and no glaring/crippling weaknesses. Hopefully the club can make a deep run this season (or go all the way?).

I only try to post in this thread once per year (normally in the summer), so I guess this is my post. I think Colorado is more or less done this off-season.

At this point, we're in "what more can you ask for?" territory regarding Sakic's performance as a GM. Colorado continues to get better every year, while also strengthening it's prospect pool simultaneously.

Since losing to the San Jose Sharks in Game 7 of the 2019 Stanley Cup Semi-Finals, Sakic and co. have made the following changes:

Out:
C Alex Kerfoot, C Carl Soderberg
LW Gabriel Bourque, LW Matt Nieto
RW Sven Andrighetto, RW Colin Wilson
D Tyson Barrie, D Patrik Nemeth, D Nikita Zadorov
G Semyon Varlamov

In:
C Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, C Nazem Kadri
LW Andrei Burakovsky, LW Brandon Saad
RW Jonas Donskoi, RW Valeri Nichushkin
D Devon Toews

Drafted in Rd 1: D Bowen Byram, C Alex Newhook, D Justin Barron

I skipped a few rental players, but the list speaks for itself. Sakic has upgraded everywhere, while somehow adding multiple blue chip prospects in the process. Bravo.

But to take my off my homerish, rose-colored glasses for a moment, the one area Sakic and co. need to improve in is developing prospects.

At the time of this writing, the Avalanche haven't developed a non-1st round player into an NHL regular since 2009 (both Ryan O'Reilly and Tyson Barrie).

• 2014: No player selected in this draft is currently in the organization
• 2015: A home run with the 10th overall pick (Mikko Rantanen), followed by whiffs on all of their remaining six picks, including two 2nd round picks
• 2016: Only Tyson Jost (10th overall) figures to be an NHLer from this draft, and he doesn't appear to be longed for the Avalanche organization (current role is 12/13 forward)

The Bednar-led NHL coaching staff has done a great job in recent years with reclamation projects, such as Ryan Graves, Patrik Nemeth, and Valeri Nichushkin (to name a few). But organizationally, drafting and developing remains an uphill battle (aside from layup picks like Cale Makar).

I defended Sakic a few years ago because he inherited an awful prospect pool, but the onus is on him and the Avalanche scouting team to hit on some non-1st round draft picks. Personally, the last few drafts have given me some hope; names like Annunen, Beaucage, and Timmins seem to have NHL futures. But so did names like Bigras, Greer, and Meloche.

Sakic Rating: 5

 

[Patagonia]

I only try to post in this thread once per year (normally in the summer), so I guess this is my post. I think Colorado is more or less done this off-season.

At this point, we're in "what more can you ask for?" territory regarding Sakic's performance as a GM. Colorado continues to get better every year, while also strengthening it's prospect pool simultaneously.

Since losing to the San Jose Sharks in Game 7 of the 2019 Stanley Cup Semi-Finals, Sakic and co. have made the following changes:



I skipped a few rental players, but the list speaks for itself. Sakic has upgraded everywhere, while somehow adding multiple blue chip prospects in the process. Bravo.

But to take my off my homerish, rose-colored glasses for a moment, the one area Sakic and co. need to improve in is developing prospects.

At the time of this writing, the Avalanche haven't developed a non-1st round player into an NHL regular since 2009 (both Ryan O'Reilly and Tyson Barrie).

• 2014: No player selected in this draft is currently in the organization
• 2015: A home run with the 10th overall pick (Mikko Rantanen), followed by whiffs on all of their remaining six picks, including two 2nd round picks
• 2016: Only Tyson Jost (10th overall) figures to be an NHLer from this draft, and he doesn't appear to be longed for the Avalanche organization (current role is 12/13 forward)

The Bednar-led NHL coaching staff has done a great job in recent years with reclamation projects, such as Ryan Graves, Patrik Nemeth, and Valeri Nichushkin (to name a few). But organizationally, drafting and developing remains an uphill battle (aside from layup picks like Cale Makar).

I defended Sakic a few years ago because he inherited an awful prospect pool, but the onus is on him and the Avalanche scouting team to hit on some non-1st round draft picks. Personally, the last few drafts have given me some hope; names like Annunen, Beaucage, and Timmins seem to have NHL futures. But so did names like Bigras, Greer, and Meloche.

Sakic Rating: 5

I agree with your comments, but the 1st round choices are significant wins that offsets the many non-1st losses. Grading his 1st round picks since 2013:

• 2020 - Barron (B+);
• 2019 - Byram (A-);
• 2019 - Newhook (B+);
• 2018 - Kaut (B-);
• 2017 - Makar (A+)
• 2016 - Jost (C-);
• 2015 - Rantenan (A);
• 2014 - Bleackley (F-)
• 2013 - Mackinnon (A+)

Getting a significant win on 1 choice is better than little wins from the other rounds.

Sakic draft grade 7.

 

[CobraAcesS]

The reason I switched to 5 despite the lack of a proper 3C is, given the current options available, the best choice is probably just to roll with Compher in that position and watch for trade opportunities as the season progresses. Before we added Saad, we had a lack of two-way players and overall quality in the middle six. Now I think we should have enough juice to get us through most of the season without too many issues.

I grade his entire tenure. Hes doing a good job of fixing past mistakes tho. Just and Compher were both things called as mistakes coming out of successive off seasons.

We'll never know how much, but they're costly mistakes.

 

[flyfysher]

I grade his entire tenure. Hes doing a good job of fixing past mistakes tho. Just and Compher were both things called as mistakes coming out of successive off seasons.

We'll never know how much, but they're costly mistakes.

The best mistakes are the ones you learn from.

I would suggest that you’re doing your grade a disservice by grading Sakic’s entire tenure instead of Roy/Sakic versus Sakic/MacFarland/Hepple/JB analysis. The reason I say that is that Sakic has very much wanted a collaborative approach as the GM. Roy wanted instant competitiveness. Sakic, MacFarland, Hepple and JB, taken as a whole represent Sakic’s vision of what the team should be as well as how to build the organization and not just relying on old relationships. Sakic’s vision and style has been restrained and deliberate. But, it also has been fairly competitive rather quickly after tearing it all down. The difference now isn’t just the increased level of competitiveness but the increased depth both on O and D and extending into our prospects. But as the poster above pointed out, let’s see our organization actually develop some of the other prospects into legit NHL prospects. They are all set up with the Colorado Eagles just up the road.

 

[Hasbro]

• 2016 - Jost (C-).

I'd move Jost up to a C+. You look and the only realistic guys you can fault the Avalanche for passing on were Chychrun ans McAvoy the rest of the players in that range have been bigger disappointments. The Avalanche had the tenth pick in a draft that fell off a cliff at #9.

 

[Richard88]

I'd move Jost up to a C+. You look and the only realistic guys you can fault the Avalanche for passing on were Chychrun ans McAvoy the rest of the players in that range have been bigger disappointments. The Avalanche had the tenth pick in a draft that fell off a cliff at #9.

My initial reaction is the same; that you can only realistically just drafting based on who is available at that point. That said, moving up in the draft was also an option that Sakic didn't take so that has to be factored in as well somewhat.

 

[Hasbro]

My initial reaction is the same; that you can only realistically just drafting based on who is available at that point. That said, moving up in the draft was also an option that Sakic didn't take so that has to be factored in as well somewhat.

Sakic wasn’t in control of trading up. That all hinges on someone willing to trade down. Most of those 9 GMs decision to hold onto their pick bore out.

 

[Patagonia]

I'd move Jost up to a C+. You look and the only realistic guys you can fault the Avalanche for passing on were Chychrun ans McAvoy the rest of the players in that range have been bigger disappointments. The Avalanche had the tenth pick in a draft that fell off a cliff at #9.

AVs should have drafted Chychrun vs Jost.

Team badly needed a DMan and was highly rated to fit needs of the team. McAvoy would have been considered a slight surprise. Sakic has since learned and drafted DMen with 5 of 7 picks in the next 1st/2nd rounds.

 

[ThatAvsGamer]

If he could've just kept O'reilly. Only black mark on his record.

 

[Richard88]

If he could've just kept O'reilly. Only black mark on his record.

If we had kept O'Reilly it's unlikely we would have ended up with the league finishes we did, so no Makar. With O'Reilly we likely would have pushed to have a competitive team sooner as well so Duchene probably would have been moved for a different package, so no Girard/Byram/etc. Can't really complain too much with the current situation.

 

[flyfysher]

If he could've just kept O'reilly. Only black mark on his record.

Not for how much O’Reilly wanted.

 

[Islay1989]

Not for how much O’Reilly wanted.

Isn't it bloody obvious he is worth every penny he wanted?

 

[flyfysher]

Isn't it bloody obvious he is worth every penny he wanted?

It depends on how you value a player’s worth relative to the team the GM is trying to build not just for today and next season but even farther down the line. One reason the Avs are where they’re at now is because Sakic has carefully managed the cap and he’s using that leverage. To our luck, he was particularly well positioned during a flat cap. That cap flexibility has value as the Toews acquisition demonstrates. O’Reilly is a great player but to the Avs, he was a cap casualty because Sakic felt he couldn’t fashion a longer-term contending team at that price. So give Sakic credit for demonstrating vision as to what he wanted (a SC contender within 5 years with a little luck in the draft and the organization set up for the long term), discipline (as to how to get there by managing salaries) and patience (with respect to how others wanted him to be more aggressive in making moves and he took his sweet time. If for nothing else, Sakic has always been very deliberate since Roy left and after JB’s first season.).

 

[Islay1989]

It depends on how you value a player’s worth relative to the team the GM is trying to build not just for today and next season but even farther down the line. One reason the Avs are where they’re at now is because Sakic has carefully managed the cap and he’s using that leverage. To our luck, he was particularly well positioned during a flat cap. That cap flexibility has value as the Toews acquisition demonstrates. O’Reilly is a great player but to the Avs, he was a cap casualty because Sakic felt he couldn’t fashion a longer-term contending team at that price. So give Sakic credit for demonstrating vision as to what he wanted (a SC contender within 5 years with a little luck in the draft and the organization set up for the long term), discipline (as to how to get there by managing salaries) and patience (with respect to how others wanted him to be more aggressive in making moves and he took his sweet time. If for nothing else, Sakic has always been very deliberate since Roy left and after JB’s first season.).

I'm sorry but no, I don't agree with this one bit. But no use crying over spilled milk.

 

[Iceberg]

If we had kept O'Reilly it's unlikely we would have ended up with the league finishes we did, so no Makar. With O'Reilly we likely would have pushed to have a competitive team sooner as well so Duchene probably would have been moved for a different package, so no Girard/Byram/etc. Can't really complain too much with the current situation.

Sakic didn't plan to rebuild, he ended up forced to do it because of so many stupid decisions he made that culminated with the 48 point season. I know people like to blame Roy, but ultimately Sakic had the final say and he failed big time from 2013 - 2017, and that includes not realizing ROR was a much better player than Matt Duchene.

 

[Pokecheque]

Sakic didn't plan to rebuild, he ended up forced to do it because of so many stupid decisions he made that culminated with the 48 point season. I know people like to blame Roy, but ultimately Sakic had the final say and he failed big time from 2013 - 2017, and that includes not realizing ROR was a much better player than Matt Duchene.

I don’t think it’s quite that simple. One guy signed long term within their salary structure, one guy didn’t. They had a cost-controlled asset with Duchene, O’Reilly was not that.

Again, you can’t just say “Sakic had final say” out of hand. Roy had a degree of managerial control and unfortunately that was one reason things went awry after that first season. Also, both of them failed to see that the 2013-14 season was a fluke and they still needed to build. I’m not absolving Sakic here but I don’t think Roy merely made suggestions either.

Isn't it bloody obvious he is worth every penny he wanted?

It wasn’t “bloody obvious” at the time.

Also, you’re not getting MacKinnon at the rate he’s currently at, and you might not get Landeskog either, if you sign O’Reilly to the number he was asking for. The Avs would be a very, very different team now had they kept O’Reilly. Would they have been better? I don’t know. But they’d be different.

 

[5280]

Sakic didn't plan to rebuild, he ended up forced to do it because of so many stupid decisions he made that culminated with the 48 point season. I know people like to blame Roy, but ultimately Sakic had the final say and he failed big time from 2013 - 2017, and that includes not realizing ROR was a much better player than Matt Duchene.

 

[LostInMosEisley]

We'll probably never really know who was responsible for what bad decisions the first four years, but managing a professional sports team is a difficult job to do well and like anything else, a person can get better with experience. Fact is mistakes is how people grow and learn. It's kinda weird how in the sports world a segment has been conditioned to hyper scrutinize every mistake like it's unacceptable. It should be more common for fans to expect nothing more than learning from mistakes for players coaches and GMs. Not sure there's a GM who has clearly exhibited that more than Joe Sakic.