Joe Sakic - Record as Colorado Avalanche GM - Part II (Updates in First Post)

[Foppa2118]

Who in next summer's UFA market fits the bill as a cup caliber 1b C other than Duchene? And if we're banking on the draft to solve that spot for us; then who other than Hughes will be ready to fill that role in their draft+1 (or even draft+2) -season? If the answer is none & the ottawa pick doesn't land us Hughes, then we're talking about not being able to contend until MacK's sweetheart deal is almost over and we'll have to start spending over 30M just to our top line...

This why thinking long term is great & I wish our organization had done more of that a decade ago when Joe was still playing; but things change when your cup window opens like ours has. Now Joe is going to need to show some aggressiveness to capitalize on our cup window unless the hockey gods decide to give us Hughes to troll leafs fans.

Next summers UFA is better suited to filling the winger spot on the Avs. Stone, Panarin, Silfverberg, and Skinner are pretty good bets to test UFA. Nyquist and Zuccarello could as well.

As far as #2C's Pavelski and Staal could hit UFA, and they both may have a couple more decent seasons in them. They're both putting up good numbers this year.

The draft is where I think they could find a good #2C though. Outside of Hughes, I think Dach and Cozens might be ready to play in the NHL next year. Kakko I think will be ready, either as a winger or a center. Could be other guys as well, it's too early to tell.

Those are all the primary options IMO. The fallback option would be a trade. After they see how some of the guys look this year, and see what they get in the draft and UFA, I think that's when Joe would be ready to give up assets in another potential big deal.

 

[cgf]

Next summers UFA is better suited to filling the winger spot on the Avs. Stone, Panarin, Silfverberg, and Skinner are pretty good bets to test UFA. Nyquist and Zuccarello could as well.

As far as #2C's Pavelski and Staal could hit UFA, and they both may have a couple more decent seasons in them. They're both putting up good numbers this year.

The draft is where I think they could find a good #2C though. Outside of Hughes, I think Dach and Cozens might be ready to play in the NHL next year. Kakko I think will be ready, either as a winger or a center. Could be other guys as well, it's too early to tell.

Those are all the primary options IMO. The fallback option would be a trade. After they see how some of the guys look this year, and see what they get in the draft and UFA, I think that's when Joe would be ready to give up assets in another potential big deal.

So outside of Hughes, nobody who’s gunna be difference making 1b C for us before the end of the decade?

 

[Foppa2118]

So outside of Hughes, nobody who’s gunna be difference making 1b C for us before the end of the decade?

Not sure that's true. If Kakko gets moved to center I think he could be a difference maker in his rookie year. Too early to tell with Dach, Cozens, and anyone else, but they could be solid contributors.

I don't think Sakic should be making big decisions based on whether they will play a big part in winning the Cup before the end of the decade though.

I also don't think they necessarily need a 1B center for the second line. Chicago won the Cup in 2015 with a 34 year old Brad Richards who put up 37 points centering the second line.

I think the Hawks used Sharp as the #2C went they won the Cup in 2013 too, and he's not a 1B center.

Carter and Stoll were used as the Kings #2C when they won the Cup in 2012 and 2014. I don't think Carter is really a 1B center. He hasn't put up more than 66 points on a season since 2008-09 with Philly.

 

[cgf]

Not sure that's true. If Kakko gets moved to center I think he could be a difference maker in his rookie year. Too early to tell with Dach, Cozens, and anyone else, but they could be solid contributors.

I don't think Sakic should be making big decisions based on whether they will play a big part in winning the Cup before the end of the decade though.

I also don't think they necessarily need a 1B center for the second line. Chicago won the Cup in 2015 with a 34 year old Brad Richards who put up 37 points centering the second line.

I think the Hawks used Sharp as the #2C went they won the Cup in 2013 too, and he's not a 1B center.

The hawks had an elite #1 blueliner though. The reason why I’m so in favor of acquiring a 1bC is because that’s what it takes to compensate for not having an elite #1 on the backend...since I don’t want to rest all of our cup hopes on Makar’s development or force the rest of the core to waste years of their prime waiting for Cale.

 

[Foppa2118]

The hawks had an elite #1 blueliner though. The reason why I’m so in favor of acquiring a 1bC is because that’s what it takes to compensate for not having an elite #1 on the backend...since I don’t want to rest all of our cup hopes on Makar’s development or force the rest of the core to waste years of their prime waiting for Cale.

An elite #1D is definitely a big part of winning the Cup, but I wonder if it will be as important as it has been in the past. We'll have to see how the next few years play out, but I wonder if the league is changing more towards quality depth throughout the forward and defensive combos giving the Cup winning team the edge. They'll still need a capable #1D either way, but I wonder if that guy will still need to be elite.

 

[cgf]

An elite #1D is definitely a big part of winning the Cup, but I wonder if it will be as important as it has been in the past. We'll have to see how the next few years play out, but I wonder if the league is changing more towards quality depth throughout the forward and defensive combos giving the Cup winning team the edge. They'll still need a capable #1D either way, but I wonder if that guy will still need to be elite.

We've seen teams over-come it. But they have had exceptional depth down the middle, which we are a 1b C away from having...thus my desire to make a trade for someone like Zibby this summer. Cause then we'd be set and there wouldn't be this massive pressure on Makar not to keep everyone else from their shot at a cup.

 

[5280]

You might be getting him confused with someone else. Calvert got $2.85M x 3. Not great but $3.75M would be brutal.

Whoops! Thanks

 

[Pokecheque]

Not sure that's true. If Kakko gets moved to center I think he could be a difference maker in his rookie year. Too early to tell with Dach, Cozens, and anyone else, but they could be solid contributors.

I don't think Sakic should be making big decisions based on whether they will play a big part in winning the Cup before the end of the decade though.

I also don't think they necessarily need a 1B center for the second line. Chicago won the Cup in 2015 with a 34 year old Brad Richards who put up 37 points centering the second line.

I think the Hawks used Sharp as the #2C went they won the Cup in 2013 too, and he's not a 1B center.

Carter and Stoll were used as the Kings #2C when they won the Cup in 2012 and 2014. I don't think Carter is really a 1B center. He hasn't put up more than 66 points on a season since 2008-09 with Philly.

To further your point it was actually Michal Handzus who centered the 2nd line for the Hawks in that 2013 Cup run, at least after he was acquired in-season. He would only play one more year in the NHL after that. I think it's more or less Kane that has allowed for them to do center-by-committee on the 2nd line, he is more or less the guy who fills that role.

Carter's always been kind of a weird forward himself as well. I think he was always better as a winger, and Mike Richards played a pretty big role in at least one of those Cup runs, I forget whether or not he was still a factor by the time 2014 rolled around. Still sad things ended for him the way they did. He was a premier two-way forward in his prime. Anyway, I digress...

I don't think there is just one surefire way to build a team and that you can get into quite a bit of trouble if you try too hard to follow someone else's formula. Much as I was pulling for the Avs to bring Paul Stastny back in the fold that sure looks like it would've been a mistake in hindsight. While I think you absolutely need gamebreaking talent and at least stable goaltending in order to win it all, I think there's some flexibility as to how you construct your roster.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

The Avs are one of the best teams in the west despite having a weak 2nd line, fix it and we are a cup contender. It's not going to be that hard tbh.

 

[cgf]

To further your point it was actually Michal Handzus who centered the 2nd line for the Hawks in that 2013 Cup run, at least after he was acquired in-season. He would only play one more year in the NHL after that. I think it's more or less Kane that has allowed for them to do center-by-committee on the 2nd line, he is more or less the guy who fills that role.

Carter's always been kind of a weird forward himself as well. I think he was always better as a winger, and Mike Richards played a pretty big role in at least one of those Cup runs, I forget whether or not he was still a factor by the time 2014 rolled around. Still sad things ended for him the way they did. He was a premier two-way forward in his prime. Anyway, I digress...

I don't think there is just one surefire way to build a team and that you can get into quite a bit of trouble if you try too hard to follow someone else's formula. Much as I was pulling for the Avs to bring Paul Stastny back in the fold that sure looks like it would've been a mistake in hindsight. While I think you absolutely need gamebreaking talent and at least stable goaltending in order to win it all, I think there's some flexibility as to how you construct your roster.

Those teams all had elite #1 blueliners.

 

[Pokecheque]

Those teams all had elite #1 blueliners.

Well...Washington didn't. And that Vancouver Canucks team that came so tantalizingly close to their first-ever Cup didn't either.

I'm fairly confident the Avs will find a way to fulfill that requirement anyway.

 

[cgf]

Well...Washington didn't. And that Vancouver Canucks team that came so tantalizingly close to their first-ever Cup didn't either.

I'm fairly confident the Avs will find a way to fulfill that requirement anyway.

And those teams had a second 1st line center with strong bottom 6 Cs to compensate for not having a #1 blueliner.

Recent contenders have either had a top tier #1, or had great center depth + firepower, and the blueline depth to roll 3 good pairings. We've got the potential to win cups using either formula...but we're still missing a key piece either way. We need Makar to reach his potential ASAP, or to bring in a 1b C who'd give us the kind of center-depth needed to compensate if slotted into MacK, Soda & Kam.

Until we get one of those 2 key spots filled, we won't have the pieces in place to seriously contend...but the instant we fill either spot, we'll be ready to run.

 

[Makar to MacK]

The Avs are tied for the best record in the west and 3rd in the whole league so all this talk of us blowing Sakic's plan up and give up assets for another center are a bit deluded in my opinion. I think we should just stay the course and if someone falls in our lap in FA so be it but I'm going to go ahead and trust Sakic to do what's right for this team no matter what.

 

[cgf]

The Avs are tied for the best record in the west and 3rd in the whole league so all this talk of us blowing Sakic's plan up and give up assets for another center are a bit deluded in my opinion. I think we should just stay the course and if someone falls in our lap in FA so be it but I'm going to go ahead and trust Sakic to do what's right for this team no matter what.

I haven’t once suggested “blowing Sakic's plan up”. So please respond to the things I’ve actually said, rather than hyperbolic strawmen of your own creation...at least if you’d like to have an actual discussion.

If otoh you just wanted to scold me for having the gaul to suggest that winning a cup may some day require Sakic to break-character and do something proactive...even (dare I say) aggressive...then please continue & forgive me for interrupting your self-indulgent backslapping.

...although if that is your preference, I will be forced to snarkily point out that I wasn’t aware that the cup was to be handed out in early December this season, nor that it was to be given to the team with the 3rd best record ;-)

 

[Makar to MacK]

I haven’t once suggested “blowing Sakic's plan up”. So please respond to the things I’ve actually said, rather than hyperbolic strawmen of your own creation...at least if you’d like to have an actual discussion.

If otoh you just wanted to scold me for having the gaul to suggest that winning a cup may some day require Sakic to break-character and do something proactive...even (dare I say) aggressive...then please continue & forgive me for interrupting your self-indulgent backslapping.

...although if that is your preference, I will be forced to snarkily point out that I wasn’t aware that the cup was to be handed out in early December this season, nor that it was to be given to the team with the 3rd best record ;-)

Geez, I dont remember mentioning anyone's post or replaying to anyone specific. I was just saying my point of view and if you dont like it sorry, not sorry. To be honest I hadn't even gotten to your post when I made the comment and was a page or 2 back but whatever, I still stand by what I said because that is what I think.

 

[cgf]

Geez, I dont remember mentioning anyone's post or replaying to anyone specific. I was just saying my point of view and if you dont like it sorry, not sorry. To be honest I hadn't even gotten to your post when I made the comment and was a page or 2 back but whatever, I still stand by what I said because that is what I think.

Maybe you should quote posts that you are responding to if you don't want people to assume that the generalities you throw out there are not meant to be about the ongoing conversation? And as for the bolded; good, I'm glad you agree with me.


PS nowhere on the previous page or 2 has anyone suggested that we blow up sakic's plan either, so I'm very curious what post it was that you were responding to if not mine.

 

[Makar to MacK]

I think it’s going to be up to Sakic and crew whether or not we make the next step towards a contender or not. Right now we are a bubble team with lots of upside. He has a lot of big decisions coming up and it will be interesting how he approaches them. What to do with Varly, Barrie? How to round out the team and get some secondary scoring. I think the pieces are there but it remains to be seen how they are played.

This is the 1st message I read

Patience is fine but the Avs absolutely have to fix the forward depth for next season. We are a bubble team right now but would have been a playoff lock had management done something about the offense.

This is the one that made me post

Maybe you should quote posts that you are responding to if you don't want people to assume that the generalities you throw out there are not meant to be about the ongoing conversation? And as for the bolded; good, I'm glad you agree with me.


PS nowhere on the previous page or 2 has anyone suggested that we blow up sakic's plan either, so I'm very curious what post it was that you were responding to if not mine.

I didnt realize there was as many posts after these as there was which was almost 2 pages. I didnt realize that I hadn't been on for so long. If it was directed at you I would've said so when you called me out as I would think anyone would but here you go. I guess your right that they didnt exactly say they wanted Sakic to blow it up and I guess that is an over exaggeration but I think getting rid of ANY assets would be a mistake and the Avs should use what we already have and use our prospects, draft picks, and ample cap space as planned.

 

[cgf]

This is the 1st message I read

This is the one that made me post

I didnt realize there was as many posts after these as there was which was almost 2 pages. I didnt realize that I hadn't been on for so long. If it was directed at you I would've said so when you called me out as I would think anyone would but here you go. I guess your right that they didnt exactly say they wanted Sakic to blow it up and I guess that is an over exaggeration but I think getting rid of ANY assets would be a mistake and the Avs should use what we already have and use our prospects, draft picks, and ample cap space as planned.

For sure. That’s a very different argument about windows / timlines, what were lacking, what can be utilized, etc., and it’s one I don’t mind having...as you can see in the essays between me & IWSAMGM in the trade board thread that CS linked to a couple pages back

But the hyperbolic cries of “you guys want to ruin everything” that have been leveled against a number of us in the “we’re gunna need to make a move at some point” camp; get rather tedious. So forgive my snark.

 

[Makar to MacK]

For sure. That’s a very different argument about windows / timlines, what were lacking, what can be utilized, etc., and it’s one I don’t mind having...as you can see in the essays between me & IWSAMGM in the trade board thread that CS linked to a couple pages back

But the hyperbolic cries of “you guys want to ruin everything” that have been leveled against a number of us in the “we’re gunna need to make a move at some point” camp; get rather tedious. So forgive my snark.

That is kinda what I dont get, why do we need anything? We are tied for the lead in the west or at least we were yesterday so I'd say that the plan is working ahead of schedule imo. As I said I admit to being a bit dramatic with the "blowing it up" line. I'm honestly not trying to drag this out, just trying to get across where I was and am coming from.

 

[cgf]

That is kinda what I dont get, why do we need anything? We are tied for the lead in the west or at least we were yesterday so I'd say that the plan is working ahead of schedule imo. As I said I admit to being a bit dramatic with the "blowing it up" line. I'm honestly not trying to drag this out, just trying to get across where I was and am coming from.

Because we’re playing great and deservedly 3 in the west, but as currently constructed we just aren’t cup contenders. The top teams are a cut above us and we’re missing 1 key piece to fit any of the formulas that have won cups or been cup caliber in the cap era...either a top tier #1 blueliner (which Makar might become in time), or a 1b C to give us elite center depth to go with being able to roll 3 pairings (which Makar will help with right away) and have elite firepower (which we already have); and a 1b C we just don’t have in the pipeline or lineup unless the Ottawa pick delivers our salvation.

Why not just wait for Makar & the Ottawa pick to solve our problems? Because MacK is already 23 and has 4 more seasons after this one before we’re paying 30M or more for our top line. If two of those seasons are wasted waiting on Makar to become an elite #1 or any 2019 draftee other than Hughes to become a cup caliber 1b C, then we’re talking about a 2 year cup window before we’re going to have to start dramatically culling our depth advantage.

So what am I saying? Give up the farm for a rental like Hayes?!? No. We’ve seen the likes of ROR, Schenn, Dutchy, RyJo, Stepan, etc. moving in the past 5 years. And plenty of them where moved for prices that our cache of futures allows us to spend without disrupting our pipeline of cheap & intriguing young talent...especially not if Joe does a good job of playing the “sell off complementary RFAs before they become too expensive to keep, for futures with which to continue stocking the pipeline” game.

So what am I proposing? Sakic start approaching teams about a summertime move for guys of the quality that we need, and who are young enough to fit alongside our core; like Zibanejad, Schenn, RNH, etc. With various futures packages...ideally landing Zibby for our 1st, Timmins / Kerfoot / Bowers, and a conditional 2020 2nd that becomes a 1st if we make the SCFs; or our 1st & 2 of those 3.

With the absolute highest I’d go being Timmins + the Ottawa pick if it’s not top 4 or 5 after the lottery...barring a young superstar like Barkov being idiotically put on the block...because any kid drafted after the top 4 or 5 in this draft seems unlikely to be ready to be a cup caliber 1b C before their draft+3 season (at the earliest) and we’d still have a deep prospect pool + all our own picks moving forward even if we paid such high prices.


There’s the cliff notes, but it’s explained in more depth in that Zibanejad thread that cobra linked to.
Proposal: - Zibanejad to the Avs

 

[Pokecheque]

It's true, I think there's a reason the team seemingly gets to that "tied for tops in the Conference/Division" and then lays a big fat egg not long afterwards. They're still not good enough to keep up with the Tampas and Nashvilles of the league, and I think they know that. How they go about correcting that will be interesting to watch.

BTW, I don't think they're "One 2C away" from contention. They still don't have a legit checking line and they most definitely need an improvement in the #6D area on Nemeth. It's possible both those areas get addressed internally, but I'm guessing the biggest need will require Joe to be aggressive on the trade/signings front.

 

[CobraAcesS]

It's true, I think there's a reason the team seemingly gets to that "tied for tops in the Conference/Division" and then lays a big fat egg not long afterwards. They're still not good enough to keep up with the Tampas and Nashvilles of the league, and I think they know that. How they go about correcting that will be interesting to watch.

BTW, I don't think they're "One 2C away" from contention. They still don't have a legit checking line and they most definitely need an improvement in the #6D area on Nemeth. It's possible both those areas get addressed internally, but I'm guessing the biggest need will require Joe to be aggressive on the trade/signings front.

Getting a #2C should push guys down. So there is a chance you'd get a better checking line, but who am I kidding. Guys go from the 2nd line to the 4th line around here.

 

[Pokecheque]

Getting a #2C should push guys down. So there is a chance you'd get a better checking line, but who am I kidding. Guys go from the 2nd line to the 4th line around here.

We're in another situation where the coach likes his 1st and 3rd lines the best.

 

[Pokecheque]

Boy it'd be nice to see them roll out a true 3rd line that looked something like Kerfoot-Soderberg-Wilson, I think THAT line would actually be quite good in all three zones. Then you move Nieto and Calvert down to the 4th where they'd be very effective but not overplayed. But of course right now that'd leave Jost and...not much else for that 2nd line. One would hope next season (and yeah I know, Wilson is likely not back next year) you see something like Jost/2C/Kaut as the 2nd line.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Boy it'd be nice to see them roll out a true 3rd line that looked something like Kerfoot-Soderberg-Wilson, I think THAT line would actually be quite good in all three zones. Then you move Nieto and Calvert down to the 4th where they'd be very effective but not overplayed. But of course right now that'd leave Jost and...not much else for that 2nd line. One would hope next season (and yeah I know, Wilson is likely not back next year) you see something like Jost/2C/Kaut as the 2nd line.

I'm happy Kaut is moving along nicely in the AHL, but I'm not penciling him in for the second line next year. I was thinking Compher long term as the #3RW when we actually have someone to push him down. Him and Kerfoot have both went from 2nd line to 4th line and back again lol.